Izzy? How Much Longer?
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Now that the contenders have all stocked up with trade deadline acquisitions, our attention turns forward. Who will emerge victorious?
But not all division races are created equal, since not all of them will create the same sense of excitement. In some cases, like the National League East, the division is all but sealed away already as the Phillies are already running away with things on the backs of their dominant staff. In other cases, it just doesn't seem like the rivalry at the top has the same juice as other divisions.
So for today's Saves and Steals, we'll name the tiers after the division races. The more exciting the race, the better the closer. It's intuitive for once!
Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Milwaukee vs St. Louis" Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
What this matchup has is a winner-take-all urgency. Most likely, Boston or New York will take the wild card as a consolation prize, but that's not the case in the National League central. In fact, there's the added fact that the Brewers have gone all-in on this year after mortgaging most of their prospects to acquire upgrades. This may end up the most exciting, in the end. There's even a little David and Goliath in this.Before last year, Mariano Rivera hadn't blown five saves in a season since 2003. Now he's done it two years in a row, with his blown save Tuesday night making it six on the year. Still, there's not much in his peripherals that is worrisome. Well, his swinging strike rate has been merely average over the last three years after spending years in elite territory, and his groundball rate is at a career low. Still! He's excellent. Just not vintage Rivera.Everyone else on the list continued to be excellent, so there's not much to report. Well, Joel Hanrahan hasn't gotten a save in August yet, but bad teams get save opportunities, too. Even if the Pirates fall out of the race, they'll get their closer more opportunities in the future.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Boston vs New York" Tier.)John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Apologies to those that think that the media is already too friendly to the east coast, but if this weekend was any indication, the coming two months in the American League East will contain plenty of drama. It's funny that the two juggernauts are a tier behind their closers, but this is the wild card era and the loser gets quite the consolation prize. Top-flight baseball between two giants. It will be good. Is there something going on with Heath Bell? He just blew a save in New York, but more worrisome are his seasonal peripherals. He's got the lowest swinging strike and strikeout rates of his career. He's getting fewer strikeouts per walk than he ever has before. His velocity is right at career levels, and he's still a fastball/curveball guy, but batters are making more contact than ever. It's hard to say why this is happening, but this will surely go down as Bell's worst season as a closer. Jordan Walden, for example, is striking out two-and-a-half more batters per nine innings than Bell. He's not even walking half a batter more per inning despite having 'control issues' on the way up. Walden is having a much better season, but since neither has pitched more than 50 innings, we have to note their career performances some, too.J.J. Putz is back on the mound and healthy. He hasn't quite shown his elite strikeout rate since returning, but his elite control has been there. The team is winning, and the odds that he can stay healthy for nine weeks have to be okay now that he's had his yearly health scare… right?
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Detroit vs Cleveland" />" Tier.)
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Comment:Neither one of these teams comes from a large market, which actually ups the intrigue some. Cleveland seemed like such a longshot at the beginning of the season, and has so many young players in their lineup, that they might be the popular favorite. On the other hand, is there any pitcher more exciting than Justin Verlander right now? He could throw a no-hitter in any start, it seems. Brian Wilson drops in the rankings for a few reasons. Lately, he's only been okay, with six strikeouts and six walks in his last ten outings. And that poor control has hounded him all year. He's walking almost five per nine, which would be Marmol-ian, but his strikeout rate isn't elite to make up for it. His added use of the cutter has probably led to some of his move from strikeouts to ground balls, but in fantasy we prefer the almighty K because it's a scoring category.Sergio Santos got his first Kimbrel of the year, and it's kind of surprising considering his improved control this year. He's got almost three strikeouts to every walk and hasn't blown a save since July fourth. The problem? His manager. Ozzie Guillen has cost Santos at least two saves in the past month with his use of Chris Sale and Tuesday night was an out away from giving Sale another save. Of course, that's a great way to run the real-life team, since you want to use your pitchers to their strengths and the White Sox have two excellent pitchers of different handedness. But in fantasy, it's the only thing holding Santos back.
What's going on with Huston Street? His strikeout to walk ratios for the year (over six) and the last ten outings (five and a half) are still really great. He's also on an historic home run pace for a closer and has given up eight runs in his last ten innings (and five in his last four). Looking at his peripherals, it's probably just that he's not a great fit for his home park. He's a fly-ball pitcher in Coors. This sort of thing will happen. Now he's got a lat injury bugging him and Rafael Betancourt got the save Tuesday night. He'll avoid the DL, but maybe that has been hindering him some too.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Texas vs Los Angeles" Tier.)Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Comment:This could go down to the wire, but there's no clear 'Milwaukee' in this arrangement. To the casual fan, these are two powerhouses going up against each other without the same name value of the Red Sox against the Yankees. Plenty of exciting pitching on the Angels, and a well-rounded incumbent in Texas are compelling. But in this subjective rankings, it doesn't seem like the Angels will have enough in the tank to keep this going to the very end.Joe Nathan is not quite ready to move up in the rankings, it seems. He has pitched poorly in two straight non-save situations now, and only has five strikeouts in his last ten outings. Boston and Chicago have enough offense to make most pitchers nervous, though, so maybe this doesn't mean a ton, long-term. Carlos Marmol zips by him by walking only one batter in his last five innings - against seven strikeouts. That's the way to keep your slates clean.Kevin Gregg is pitching a little better of late -- 11 strikeouts in his last ten appearances. But his control is still poor -- seven walks in the same time frame. No matter, with Koji Uehara gone, Gregg's moderately safe even if he's only a mediocre pitcher. Ryan Madson looks like he's the closer in Philadelphia the rest of the way. Brad Lidge has been okay since he's returned, but only okay. His velocity is not all the way back and he's spiked more than a few sliders. Antonio Bastardo is a lights-out-lefty, but managers seem to prefer right-handed closers. Madson hasn't really given his team any reason to think he shouldn't be the closer either. He only has twelve walks all year, and one in his last ten appearances. He hasn't blown a save since returning, either. He'll move up this list as the season progresses, most likely.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Now that the contenders have all stocked up with trade deadline acquisitions, our attention turns forward. Who will emerge victorious?
But not all division races are created equal, since not all of them will create the same sense of excitement. In some cases, like the National League East, the division is all but sealed away already as the Phillies are already running away with things on the backs of their dominant staff. In other cases, it just doesn't seem like the rivalry at the top has the same juice as other divisions.
So for today's Saves and Steals, we'll name the tiers after the division races. The more exciting the race, the better the closer. It's intuitive for once!
Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Milwaukee vs St. Louis" Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
What this matchup has is a winner-take-all urgency. Most likely, Boston or New York will take the wild card as a consolation prize, but that's not the case in the National League central. In fact, there's the added fact that the Brewers have gone all-in on this year after mortgaging most of their prospects to acquire upgrades. This may end up the most exciting, in the end. There's even a little David and Goliath in this.Before last year, Mariano Rivera hadn't blown five saves in a season since 2003. Now he's done it two years in a row, with his blown save Tuesday night making it six on the year. Still, there's not much in his peripherals that is worrisome. Well, his swinging strike rate has been merely average over the last three years after spending years in elite territory, and his groundball rate is at a career low. Still! He's excellent. Just not vintage Rivera.Everyone else on the list continued to be excellent, so there's not much to report. Well, Joel Hanrahan hasn't gotten a save in August yet, but bad teams get save opportunities, too. Even if the Pirates fall out of the race, they'll get their closer more opportunities in the future.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Boston vs New York" Tier.)John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Apologies to those that think that the media is already too friendly to the east coast, but if this weekend was any indication, the coming two months in the American League East will contain plenty of drama. It's funny that the two juggernauts are a tier behind their closers, but this is the wild card era and the loser gets quite the consolation prize. Top-flight baseball between two giants. It will be good. Is there something going on with Heath Bell? He just blew a save in New York, but more worrisome are his seasonal peripherals. He's got the lowest swinging strike and strikeout rates of his career. He's getting fewer strikeouts per walk than he ever has before. His velocity is right at career levels, and he's still a fastball/curveball guy, but batters are making more contact than ever. It's hard to say why this is happening, but this will surely go down as Bell's worst season as a closer. Jordan Walden, for example, is striking out two-and-a-half more batters per nine innings than Bell. He's not even walking half a batter more per inning despite having 'control issues' on the way up. Walden is having a much better season, but since neither has pitched more than 50 innings, we have to note their career performances some, too.J.J. Putz is back on the mound and healthy. He hasn't quite shown his elite strikeout rate since returning, but his elite control has been there. The team is winning, and the odds that he can stay healthy for nine weeks have to be okay now that he's had his yearly health scare… right?
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Detroit vs Cleveland" />" Tier.)Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies
Comment:Neither one of these teams comes from a large market, which actually ups the intrigue some. Cleveland seemed like such a longshot at the beginning of the season, and has so many young players in their lineup, that they might be the popular favorite. On the other hand, is there any pitcher more exciting than Justin Verlander right now? He could throw a no-hitter in any start, it seems. Brian Wilson drops in the rankings for a few reasons. Lately, he's only been okay, with six strikeouts and six walks in his last ten outings. And that poor control has hounded him all year. He's walking almost five per nine, which would be Marmol-ian, but his strikeout rate isn't elite to make up for it. His added use of the cutter has probably led to some of his move from strikeouts to ground balls, but in fantasy we prefer the almighty K because it's a scoring category.Sergio Santos got his first Kimbrel of the year, and it's kind of surprising considering his improved control this year. He's got almost three strikeouts to every walk and hasn't blown a save since July fourth. The problem? His manager. Ozzie Guillen has cost Santos at least two saves in the past month with his use of Chris Sale and Tuesday night was an out away from giving Sale another save. Of course, that's a great way to run the real-life team, since you want to use your pitchers to their strengths and the White Sox have two excellent pitchers of different handedness. But in fantasy, it's the only thing holding Santos back.
What's going on with Huston Street? His strikeout to walk ratios for the year (over six) and the last ten outings (five and a half) are still really great. He's also on an historic home run pace for a closer and has given up eight runs in his last ten innings (and five in his last four). Looking at his peripherals, it's probably just that he's not a great fit for his home park. He's a fly-ball pitcher in Coors. This sort of thing will happen. Now he's got a lat injury bugging him and Rafael Betancourt got the save Tuesday night. He'll avoid the DL, but maybe that has been hindering him some too.
Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Texas vs Los Angeles" Tier.)Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Comment:This could go down to the wire, but there's no clear 'Milwaukee' in this arrangement. To the casual fan, these are two powerhouses going up against each other without the same name value of the Red Sox against the Yankees. Plenty of exciting pitching on the Angels, and a well-rounded incumbent in Texas are compelling. But in this subjective rankings, it doesn't seem like the Angels will have enough in the tank to keep this going to the very end.Joe Nathan is not quite ready to move up in the rankings, it seems. He has pitched poorly in two straight non-save situations now, and only has five strikeouts in his last ten outings. Boston and Chicago have enough offense to make most pitchers nervous, though, so maybe this doesn't mean a ton, long-term. Carlos Marmol zips by him by walking only one batter in his last five innings - against seven strikeouts. That's the way to keep your slates clean.Kevin Gregg is pitching a little better of late -- 11 strikeouts in his last ten appearances. But his control is still poor -- seven walks in the same time frame. No matter, with Koji Uehara gone, Gregg's moderately safe even if he's only a mediocre pitcher. Ryan Madson looks like he's the closer in Philadelphia the rest of the way. Brad Lidge has been okay since he's returned, but only okay. His velocity is not all the way back and he's spiked more than a few sliders. Antonio Bastardo is a lights-out-lefty, but managers seem to prefer right-handed closers. Madson hasn't really given his team any reason to think he shouldn't be the closer either. He only has twelve walks all year, and one in his last ten appearances. He hasn't blown a save since returning, either. He'll move up this list as the season progresses, most likely.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "San Francisco vs Arizona" Tier.)1st Chair:
Chris Perez, 2nd Chair:
Vinnie Pestano, Cleveland Indians
1st Chair:
Kyle Farnsworth, 2nd Chair:
Jake McGee, Tampa Bay Rays
1st Chair:
Javy Guerra, 2nd Chair:
Blake Hawksworth, Los Angeles Dodgers
1st Chair:
Mark Melancon, 2nd Chair:
Wilton Lopez, Houston Astros
1st Chair:
Neftali Feliz, 2nd Chair:
Koji Uehara, Texas Rangers
1st Chair:
Jon Rauch, 2nd Chair:
Frank Francisco, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Jason Isringhausen, 2nd Chair:
Bobby Parnell, New York Mets
Comment:This probably will go to the every end, and if that's the only way to judge excitement, then this ranking for the National League West might seem wonky. But it's not the only way to judge things. You want the challenger to be up to the task, and if there's any one unit on these two teams that's dominant, it's the Giants' pitching staff. The other major elements of these two teams are actually mediocre. So, the talent level overall has to be considered. Lastly, if the Giants are the favorite, and they seemingly are, incumbents are less exciting, in general, then underdogs or teams that could be relatively new to the postseason. Chris Perez continues to free fall. We've been harping on his lack of strikeout stuff all year, and the chickens are coming home to roost recently. In his last ten outings, he's given up eight runs and three home runs. He's been lucky to only blow two saves, actually. And his six-to-five strikeout to walk ratio over that stretch is just as bad as his seasonal ratio. Who knows if the Indians would ever make the change in the middle of a playoff run, but Vinnie Pestano has twice the strikeouts as Perez… and fewer walks. He's got next. The Professor, Kyle Farnsworth, has more strikeouts than Chris Perez and half as many walks. He's also on a team that could look to the future at the position at any time. Then again, Jake McGee has been wild lately (six walks in his last ten outings) and isn't demanding the job just yet. Maybe Javy Guerra isn't as mediocre a pitcher as it at first seemed. he had control issues throughout the minor leagues, but has only walked seven in 26 2/3 in the major leagues this year, so he's fine there. He hasn't had a good strikeout rate for a closer so far this year, but he does have twelve strikeouts in his last ten appearances. Could Jonathon Broxton take the role back if he was healthy? Yes, but it doesn't look like he'll get back to the majors in time to take do so. In Houston, the attention is turning next year in more ways than one. Could Melancon be a keeper closer? It's not a crazy question. He gets groundballs at an elite rate and has average control, so two parts of the equation are there. Right now, the strikeout rate is not. But he's only about twenty innings into his first stint as The Closer, and with the direction of the team, it makes more sense to open next year with M&M as the closer over Brandon Lyon. Still, he's not an elite guy, so he's not a keeper except in deep and dynasty leagues. Jon Rauch has blown two of his last six save chances, so he's not on firm footing with Frank Francisco behind him. Frankie has two holds in last four appearances and hasn't walked a man in his last ten. Perhaps confidence in him is rising. This closer job could change hands once again. Hey Neftali Feliz blew another save! Despite finding the plate a little better of late (three walks in his last ten outings), he's been hit around twice in his last six outings. Mike Adams owners, your wait might be over very soon! Jason Isringhausen is one save away from 300. That might be relevant because he's blown two of his last four games and hasn't looked dominant in his return to the closer role. As the Mets fall further out of the race, the more likely they are to try fireballer Bobby Parnell in the role. Although, to be fair Parnell hasn't been great recently anyway, hung with two losses of his own in his last four appearances. Still, this is a pen to watch closely if looking for saves. I'm happy to discuss these situations on twitter any time.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Comment:Big man Jonathan Broxton has thrown for two straight days, but is only 'beginning the process' according to his manager. Don Mattingly also said that he wouldn't likely be ready to start a rehab session before the minor league season ends. Ug. The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Matt Thornton, Chicago A.L.
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee
David Aardsma, Seattle
One more save until we see Jason Isringhausen?* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentRecent Steals nominee Angel Pagan is finally turning it around, and last week's deep league pick, Will Venable, is on fire. What will we do this week? Maybe another Padre! Bad teams are often great breeding grounds for fantasy sleepers, and Bartlett is probably on your waiver wire. He's a stronger option for steals than Cliff Pennington, and he's not a bad fill in if you just lost Rafael Furcal. There's a little room left for him to improve his .256 batting average, and he should steal 30 this year, which is not nothing. Of course, if you're looking for help at the utility spot, there's probably a better option. But Bartlett might be the most Reyes-like of the fill-in options on your wire. Johnny Giavotella is up with the Kansas City Royals and already has his first home run and first stolen base in his only four games. He's not really a volume base stealer, but he does have speed (22 stolen bases in 2010 and 2011 combined, 26 in 2009) and is playing daily. He could help your deep league at second base without hurting you in power. Baby steps are all you can manage on a deep league waiver wire anyway.