Is the end near for Perez?
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (5) (AKA: The "Just hot enough to make jumping in the pool appealing" Tier.)1st Chair:
Neftali Feliz, 2nd Chair:
Mike Adams, Texas Rangers
1st Chair:
Frank Francisco, 2nd Chair:
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Chris Perez, 2nd Chair:
Vinnie Pestano, Cleveland Indians
1st Chair:
Bobby Parnell, 2nd Chair:
Jason Isringhausen, New York Mets
1st Chair:
Rafael Betancourt, 2nd Chair:
Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies
1st Chair:
Jeremy Affeldt, 2nd Chair:
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Comment:Frank Francisco is back and healthy after his mini-rehab of pretzel twist, an It's Always Sunny marathon, and a few dips in the pool, so he's good until Jon Rauch returns, and possibly after. Neftali Feliz continues to make it work despite two better relievers breathing down his neck. These guys are relatively safe in a tier full of land mines. Chris Perez, though? Be nervous. Be very nervous. He blew a save on Monday by allowing an unearned run to score, and then for his encore he walked a guy, allowed the tying run to score on a hit, and blew another save on Tuesday. At least he won Tuesday, when his team picked it up against Brandon League. He now has five walks against six strikeouts in his last ten outings, and that's not a good ratio. Vinnie Pestano? He has 15 strikeouts against six walks in the same time frame. Bobby Parnell still doesn't have a save, and yet we list him first. That's because no-one has a save in New York recently. They key for Parnell is his command, and in his last ten outings he has 12 strikeouts against four walks, and that'll work. Hopefully the team will give him a chance to show his stuff in the ninth some time. Rex Brothers got the first save of his career Tuesday night. After a tough start to the month, he's settled down with six straight scoreless innings and a couple holds. He gets tons of swinging strikes, but the key to his success as a future closer is his control. He's been struggling with it his whole career, and he's still walking about five batters per nine. That probably won't work in the majors, so look for improvement before you make a significant investment in Brothers.Watching Jeremy Affeldt pitch to righties makes you want Brian Wilson back real fast. Or at least Sergio Romo, who is due back shortly. Romo should take over the closing duties immediately, as Affeldt has six walks his last six and has looked very shaky on the mound, good ERA or no. Ramon Ramirez blew the game Tuesday night and needs to move further away from the ninth inning. Romo is the mid-term play here.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays (appendicitis)
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies (strained lat)
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants (elbow)
Comment:No news out of Los Angeles or Toronto. Huston Street, though, threw a perfect inning of rehab in Colorado Springs Tuesday night. He reported no pain and should be back by the end of the week. Brian Wilson hasn't yet started throwing, even if his manager thinks he'll be back sooner rather than later.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Matt Thornton, Chicago A.L.
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee
David Aardsma, Seattle
Can we put Jason Isringhausen on this list already?* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentAt this point in the season, it's important to go for it if a category is within reach. Players like Tony Gwynn Jr., and Eric Young Jr. are perfect even for your mixed league team. Ignore the ownership percentages next to their names, and the fact that both players have no power whatsoever. If you can make some hay in the stolen base category, get one of these legacy dudes on your roster. In a perfect world, you'd put them on your bench and play them against bad defensive catchers or in good pitcher matchups. All hands on deck. Fight for the categories that make sense.Take a look at Jordan Schafer and you might not see much to like. He walks at an average rate, strikes out at an average rate, and is showing average batted ball luck… and his batting average is .235. Part of that is a complete lack of power -- which won't go away. But another part of it is the fact that he should be showing better than average luck on batted balls, given his plus speed. In fact, given his mix of line drives, ground balls, fly balls, infield hits, and home runs per fly ball, as many as 5% more of his balls in play should be landing for hits. If his current strikeout rate holds, and his batted ball luck improves, he could hit as well as .260 the rest of the way. We know he has plus-plus wheels, and those play in deep leagues at that batting average. They don't play at .230. In the deepest of leagues, you'll have to take that chance now that he's the everyday center fielder for the Astros.
We're right in the middle of the hottest portion of our schedule. Hot, with a major chance of freaky on the East Coast right now, what with the hurricanes and earthquakes and the like.
But hot is the main word that y'all will be thinking this week while many of you are on your well-deserved breaks. But there's good hot and bad hot and just plain mean hot.
So this week, right here at the end of August, we'll name the tiers after different kinds of heat. It's on your mind anyway, and it dovetails nicely with all these pitchers throwing five kinds of heat. Stay cool!
Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Peal your skin off the car's leather seats" Tier.)Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Isn't this one of the worst feelings, like, ever? It's worth putting an ugly towel on your seats even if it kills your game. If you leave half your thigh on the car seat, you won't have much game anyway.Jonathan Papelbon is ridiculous. He's only allowed two baserunners in his last ten outings. Two. That's no walks, and two singles. His last walk was on July 10th. He has no walks in the second half. He hasn't given up a run in over a month. He has eight strikeouts to every walk. Is there any other way to describe his awesomeness? Oh -- facing him is like trying to peal your legs off of a hot leather seat.Craig Kimbrel has walked four in his last ten appearances, and it's worth wondering if he's a little gassed. He's seventh in innings among relievers. Along with Venters, he is part of the most-used pair of pitchers in baseball. Still, the Braves have brought up Arodys Vizcaino to help in the pen, and they'll rest their big guy to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Just means his owners might lose a save or two down the stretch. Joel Hanrahan is on shaky ground in this elite tier. He has walked four and struck out none in his last four, and he lost two games in that stretch as well. It's probably just a tough stretch against two decent offenses in the Reds and Cardinals, but it bears some watching, given the fact that Hanrahan doesn't have the pedigree of the other guys in this tier.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Smelly subway car and dehydration headache" Tier.)John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
How about those days in your average major metropolis where you're hurrying to work a little late, perhaps a tiny bit hung over, trying to make that train, elbow your way into the car, and find that you're stuck in the one with the broken air conditioner? Dreamy! Stinky! Steamy! Andrew Bailey had a little three-game stretch of stinky, steamy work, but he's righted the ship, seemingly. And that stretch really wasn't that bad - he lost one game, and gave up three earned in three innings. Even his near-blown-save against the Yankees was against a pretty good offense. He's fine. Jose Valverde also blew a game, but had the help of the defense. Even if one of the errors was his own, it's not that bad a sign. Let's give Drew Storen some propers. In his first full year as the Nationals' closer, he's only blown four saves, has a sub-three ERA, and has survived multiple trade rumors. We could focus on the fact that his strikeout rate is about average for a late-inning closer, and the fact that it's built on an average whiff rate so might not improve. But that would ignore the fact that he gets about half his contact on the ground and has excellent control. Maybe his curveball is gone, but his 95 MPH fastball and 84 MPH slider are getting the job done. Well done, Stanford grad!
Tier 3: OK options (9) (AKA: The "Insta-sweat and insta-pit-stain" Tier.)
Heath Bell, San Diego Padres
Sergio Santos, Chicago White Sox
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Fernando Salas, St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins
Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies
Comment:Some days are pure antiperspirant advertisements. Pick your colors carefully on these days because you never know what sort of crazy designs your sweat might come up with for your underarms. Heath Bell has to be sweating a little bit. Well, not literally, because San Diego is some sort of freakish perfect weather phenomenon, but figuratively. He's been placed on waivers and might actually leave town a month after we all thought he would. If someone can beat the value of the picks the Padres figure to get when Bell signs somewhere else in free agency, he can be had. Luke Gregerson is probably next in line. The team controls his contract for three more years, and he has a wicked slider. His strikeout rate is down this year, and his results have been up and down, but he's been dealing with injury and his swinging strike rate is still way above average. He's a decent closer in waiting. Man, Jordan Walden keeps finding ways to blow games. This week, he blew a game without allowing a run! That's because he inherited ducks on the pond in the eighth inning, allowed a meek single to plate one, and then went on to record five outs with two strikeouts. He's a testament to the fact that blown saves are not a great way to evaluate your closer. Tuesday night, he got right back on the horse with a clean-slate two-strikeout save against the White Sox.
Fernando Salas did not have a good week upon entry into his new tier. He gave up a walk-off home run to Neil Walker in Pittsburgh, and then came on with a man on base and a 1-0 lead only to allow a triple to Aaron Miles and a run-producing fielder's choice to Rod Barajas. What are you going to do? Walker runs into one every once in a while, and Miles… well, don't know what happened there. Salas is a fly-ball guy, but he gets strikeouts and has great control, so he'll be fine.Ryan Madson had one of those terrible, no-good, very-bad days last week, or he'd move up in the tier. In Washington, he allowed a single to Jayson Werth, a single to Danny Espinosa, a single to Jonny Gomes, got a free out from a Wilson Ramos sacrifice, intentionally walked Jesus Flores, gave up a single to Ian Desmond, struck out Rick Ankiel… and allowed a walk-off grand slam to Ryan Zimmerman. As long as this doesn't affect his much-maligned psyche, he'll also be fine. He's an excellent pitcher.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Uncomfortably roasty: gleaming at the game" Tier.)Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds
Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins
Kevin Gregg, Baltimore Orioles
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mark Melancon, Houston Astros
Comment:Ever seen a day game in August in Atlanta? You can see the sweat on the fans faces from the comfort of your living room. That sort of heat makes it hard to enjoy your dehydrating adult soda and your salty snack. The goggled professor Kyle Farnsworth is teaching this tier how it works. If he didn't have those career numbers holding him back, and wasn't on a team that, even if they pick up his option for next year, may not consider him a long-term option at the position… well, then he'd be up in the next tier already. He might move up soon anyway. Leo Nunez! Is it time for his late season swoon again? Nine runs in his last three outings, with two blown saves. He's a fly ball guy, and he gave up a home run in one of the blown saves, but he's also walked three guys in that stretch. Nunez is good enough to be a closer while he's cheap, and in a nice home park, but be wary of him if he leaves Florida. And the team may look to trade him in the offseason, as he only has one season of arbitration left. Javy Guerra blew his first save of the season, which wouldn't really be news normally, but his control has faltered slightly recently. He has three walks in his last eight outings, and that's a worse walk rate than he's been showing. It still doesn't sound bad, does it? Here's the thing though, before this season, his minor league walk rate was over five per nine. That's really bad, and it's probably in the back of his mind even now that he's halved that rate so far this year. What are you going to do, though? Sure, trade him in your keeper league if the deadline hasn't passed and you have extra saves or are out of it. Or drop him in your shallow league if there are better options on the wire. Like Mark Melancon, though, Guerra is alone in a bad pen. Mark Melancon has blown two of his last four chances, with home runs, but he's probably not going anywhere either. Mediocre strikeout rates and iffy control? Sure, if they come with saves.Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (5) (AKA: The "Just hot enough to make jumping in the pool appealing" Tier.)1st Chair:
Neftali Feliz, 2nd Chair:
Mike Adams, Texas Rangers
1st Chair:
Frank Francisco, 2nd Chair:
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
1st Chair:
Chris Perez, 2nd Chair:
Vinnie Pestano, Cleveland Indians
1st Chair:
Bobby Parnell, 2nd Chair:
Jason Isringhausen, New York Mets
1st Chair:
Rafael Betancourt, 2nd Chair:
Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies
1st Chair:
Jeremy Affeldt, 2nd Chair:
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Comment:Frank Francisco is back and healthy after his mini-rehab of pretzel twist, an It's Always Sunny marathon, and a few dips in the pool, so he's good until Jon Rauch returns, and possibly after. Neftali Feliz continues to make it work despite two better relievers breathing down his neck. These guys are relatively safe in a tier full of land mines. Chris Perez, though? Be nervous. Be very nervous. He blew a save on Monday by allowing an unearned run to score, and then for his encore he walked a guy, allowed the tying run to score on a hit, and blew another save on Tuesday. At least he won Tuesday, when his team picked it up against Brandon League. He now has five walks against six strikeouts in his last ten outings, and that's not a good ratio. Vinnie Pestano? He has 15 strikeouts against six walks in the same time frame. Bobby Parnell still doesn't have a save, and yet we list him first. That's because no-one has a save in New York recently. They key for Parnell is his command, and in his last ten outings he has 12 strikeouts against four walks, and that'll work. Hopefully the team will give him a chance to show his stuff in the ninth some time. Rex Brothers got the first save of his career Tuesday night. After a tough start to the month, he's settled down with six straight scoreless innings and a couple holds. He gets tons of swinging strikes, but the key to his success as a future closer is his control. He's been struggling with it his whole career, and he's still walking about five batters per nine. That probably won't work in the majors, so look for improvement before you make a significant investment in Brothers.Watching Jeremy Affeldt pitch to righties makes you want Brian Wilson back real fast. Or at least Sergio Romo, who is due back shortly. Romo should take over the closing duties immediately, as Affeldt has six walks his last six and has looked very shaky on the mound, good ERA or no. Ramon Ramirez blew the game Tuesday night and needs to move further away from the ninth inning. Romo is the mid-term play here.* * * * * * * * * *
Injured Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers (elbow)
Jon Rauch, Toronto Blue Jays (appendicitis)
Huston Street, Colorado Rockies (strained lat)
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants (elbow)
Comment:No news out of Los Angeles or Toronto. Huston Street, though, threw a perfect inning of rehab in Colorado Springs Tuesday night. He reported no pain and should be back by the end of the week. Brian Wilson hasn't yet started throwing, even if his manager thinks he'll be back sooner rather than later.The Deposed:Fernando Rodney, Los Angeles
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis
Brandon Lyon, Houston
Matt Thornton, Chicago A.L.
Vicente Padilla, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee
David Aardsma, Seattle
Can we put Jason Isringhausen on this list already?* * * * * * * * * *The Steals DepartmentAt this point in the season, it's important to go for it if a category is within reach. Players like Tony Gwynn Jr., and Eric Young Jr. are perfect even for your mixed league team. Ignore the ownership percentages next to their names, and the fact that both players have no power whatsoever. If you can make some hay in the stolen base category, get one of these legacy dudes on your roster. In a perfect world, you'd put them on your bench and play them against bad defensive catchers or in good pitcher matchups. All hands on deck. Fight for the categories that make sense.Take a look at Jordan Schafer and you might not see much to like. He walks at an average rate, strikes out at an average rate, and is showing average batted ball luck… and his batting average is .235. Part of that is a complete lack of power -- which won't go away. But another part of it is the fact that he should be showing better than average luck on batted balls, given his plus speed. In fact, given his mix of line drives, ground balls, fly balls, infield hits, and home runs per fly ball, as many as 5% more of his balls in play should be landing for hits. If his current strikeout rate holds, and his batted ball luck improves, he could hit as well as .260 the rest of the way. We know he has plus-plus wheels, and those play in deep leagues at that batting average. They don't play at .230. In the deepest of leagues, you'll have to take that chance now that he's the everyday center fielder for the Astros.