We're just a couple days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective camps in Florida and Arizona, so here's a preview of some National League position battles to keep an eye on this spring. This isn't meant to be a comprehensive list, so stay tuned to our player news page for all the latest updates. I'll have a preview of American League position battles before the exhibition schedule gets underway.
You can find projections for all of the players mentioned below in Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. It's chock full of nearly 1,000 player profiles, customizable and printable cheat sheets, ADP (Average Draft Position) reports, positional tiers, keeper and prospect rankings, depth charts and much, much more. By the way, you can also pick up the draft guide on the iPhone or iPad this year. You officially have no excuse for being unprepared on draft day.
Giants' first base
Nate Schierholtz, Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera currently look like the favorites to start in the Giants' outfield this season, which means Aubrey Huff and young Brandon Belt will battle it out for the starting first base job during spring training.
Huff is coming off a terrible year in which he batted just .246/.306/.370 with 12 homers and a .676 OPS, but he has made an effort to get back into shape this winter after being called out publicly by manager Bruce Bochy. The 35-year-old is owed $10 million this season while his contract includes a $10 million option for 2013 or a $2 million buyout, so while it pains me to say it, he'll probably have to be pretty awful during Cactus League action for the Giants to give up on him completely.
Belt batted just .225/.306/.412 with nine homers and a .718 OPS over 209 plate appearances in his rookie season, but I wouldn't take those numbers too seriously as an aggregate since he received sporadic playing time at the big league level and also dealt with a hairline fracture in his wrist at the end of May. "The Baby Giraffe" has a 147/140 K/BB ratio over 825 plate appearances at the minor league level and his power appears to be very real.
Belt is clearly the more appealing option from a fantasy perspective, so the hope is that he gives the Giants no other choice but to make him the primary starter at first and push Huff to the bench or possibly a time-share in left field. Bochy tends to lean toward veterans, so I'm not holding my breath there. But one can hope, right?
Dodgers' closer
OK, so maybe it's unfair to call this an official position battle. All indications are that Javy Guerra will enter spring training as the favorite for the closer role, which is probably how it should be after he posted a 2.31 ERA, 21 saves and a 38/18 K/BB ratio over 46 2/3 innings last year. But I'm not so sure he'll be able to hold off Kenley Jansen for much longer.
While Jansen was overshadowed by NL Rookie of the Year Craig Kimbrel last season, his strikeout rate (16.10 K/9) was actually the highest ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched. And though he got off to a bit of a slow start, he had a ridiculous 0.55 ERA over his final 31 appearances. The converted catcher also had DL stints with shoulder inflammation and an irregular heartbeat, so he doesn't come without some health concerns, but it's easy to see why he's going higher than Guerra in a lot of mock drafts right now.
Guerra's success last year was largely built on unexpected progress with his command relative to his underwhelming minor league numbers and a pretty fortunate home run rate (two allowed over 46 2/3 innings), even though he doesn't profile as a ground ball specialist. His strikeout rate wasn't all that special either (7.33 K/9), so If he regresses even a little bit and Jansen picks off from where he left off last year, the job could switch hands pretty early. Heck, it might happen even if Guerra manages to duplicate his peripherals.
Rockies' No. 3-5 starters
Some people collect baseball cards. Others collect stamps or antique radios. But Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd? He collects arms. Lots of them. That doesn't sound creepy at all.
Jhoulys Chacin and the newly-acquired Jeremy Guthrie appear to have spots in the Rockies' rotation locked up, but beyond that, well, it gets a little tricky. Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Guillermo Moscoso, Tyler Chatwood, Josh Outman, Esmil Rogers and Jamie Moyer are all in the mix for the final three spots. By, the way, Nicasio and Rogers were the only ones who were even in the Rockies' organization this time last year.
We've heard nothing but good things so far about Nicasio, who suffered a fractured C-1 vertebrae when he took a line drive off the head last August. He began facing hitters last month and Rockies manager Jim Tracy said Thursday that he'll have no restrictions during spring training. Keeping things in perspective, it's pretty amazing that he's even healthy enough to play baseball again, but if he can recapture the form that led to a promising 4.14 ERA and 58/18 K/BB ratio over 71 2/3 innings as a rookie last year, he could end up being a nice sleeper in mixed formats.
Pomeranz and White, who were acquired from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal last July, are two names who should be on your radar for the long haul. One or both could make the rotation out of camp, but given their inexperience and the wealth of options in camp, it's possible they'll be sent down to the minors to begin the season.
There's a good chance that Moscoso ends up with a spot after posting a superficially impressive 3.37 ERA and a 74/38 K/BB ratio over 128 innings with the A's in 2011, but he had a 4.70 ERA away from pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. He's primarily a fly ball pitcher, so things could ugly in Colorado pretty quickly. Chatwood logged 142 innings as a 21-year-old with the Angels last season, but he also had an underwhelming 74/71 K/BB ratio to go along with a 4.75 ERA and probably needs more seasoning in the minors. Outman dealt with some command issues last season in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he has pretty good stuff and owns a 3.75 ERA over 151 1/3 innings in the big leagues. If the southpaw doesn't win a rotation spot, he could be a good fit for the bullpen. Rogers and the 49-year-old Moyer (who missed last season following Tommy John surgery) are unlikely to make an impact in fantasy leagues.
One name to keep an eye on is Jorge De La Rosa, who is working back from Tommy John surgery last June. He's expected to throw bullpen sessions during spring training and should begin a minor league rehab assignment shortly after the regular season begins. If all goes well, he could be back with the Rockies in May or June. De La Rosa was never a control specialist to begin with (career 4.5 BB/9, 4.0 BB/9 since 2007), so it will be interesting to see whether he struggles with his command initially.
We're just a couple days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to their respective camps in Florida and Arizona, so here's a preview of some National League position battles to keep an eye on this spring. This isn't meant to be a comprehensive list, so stay tuned to our player news page for all the latest updates. I'll have a preview of American League position battles before the exhibition schedule gets underway.
You can find projections for all of the players mentioned below in Rotoworld's Online Draft Guide. It's chock full of nearly 1,000 player profiles, customizable and printable cheat sheets, ADP (Average Draft Position) reports, positional tiers, keeper and prospect rankings, depth charts and much, much more. By the way, you can also pick up the draft guide on the iPhone or iPad this year. You officially have no excuse for being unprepared on draft day.
Giants' first base
Nate Schierholtz, Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera currently look like the favorites to start in the Giants' outfield this season, which means Aubrey Huff and young Brandon Belt will battle it out for the starting first base job during spring training.
Huff is coming off a terrible year in which he batted just .246/.306/.370 with 12 homers and a .676 OPS, but he has made an effort to get back into shape this winter after being called out publicly by manager Bruce Bochy. The 35-year-old is owed $10 million this season while his contract includes a $10 million option for 2013 or a $2 million buyout, so while it pains me to say it, he'll probably have to be pretty awful during Cactus League action for the Giants to give up on him completely.
Belt batted just .225/.306/.412 with nine homers and a .718 OPS over 209 plate appearances in his rookie season, but I wouldn't take those numbers too seriously as an aggregate since he received sporadic playing time at the big league level and also dealt with a hairline fracture in his wrist at the end of May. "The Baby Giraffe" has a 147/140 K/BB ratio over 825 plate appearances at the minor league level and his power appears to be very real.
Belt is clearly the more appealing option from a fantasy perspective, so the hope is that he gives the Giants no other choice but to make him the primary starter at first and push Huff to the bench or possibly a time-share in left field. Bochy tends to lean toward veterans, so I'm not holding my breath there. But one can hope, right?
Dodgers' closer
OK, so maybe it's unfair to call this an official position battle. All indications are that Javy Guerra will enter spring training as the favorite for the closer role, which is probably how it should be after he posted a 2.31 ERA, 21 saves and a 38/18 K/BB ratio over 46 2/3 innings last year. But I'm not so sure he'll be able to hold off Kenley Jansen for much longer.
While Jansen was overshadowed by NL Rookie of the Year Craig Kimbrel last season, his strikeout rate (16.10 K/9) was actually the highest ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched. And though he got off to a bit of a slow start, he had a ridiculous 0.55 ERA over his final 31 appearances. The converted catcher also had DL stints with shoulder inflammation and an irregular heartbeat, so he doesn't come without some health concerns, but it's easy to see why he's going higher than Guerra in a lot of mock drafts right now.
Guerra's success last year was largely built on unexpected progress with his command relative to his underwhelming minor league numbers and a pretty fortunate home run rate (two allowed over 46 2/3 innings), even though he doesn't profile as a ground ball specialist. His strikeout rate wasn't all that special either (7.33 K/9), so If he regresses even a little bit and Jansen picks off from where he left off last year, the job could switch hands pretty early. Heck, it might happen even if Guerra manages to duplicate his peripherals.
Rockies' No. 3-5 starters
Some people collect baseball cards. Others collect stamps or antique radios. But Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd? He collects arms. Lots of them. That doesn't sound creepy at all.
Jhoulys Chacin and the newly-acquired Jeremy Guthrie appear to have spots in the Rockies' rotation locked up, but beyond that, well, it gets a little tricky. Juan Nicasio, Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Guillermo Moscoso, Tyler Chatwood, Josh Outman, Esmil Rogers and Jamie Moyer are all in the mix for the final three spots. By, the way, Nicasio and Rogers were the only ones who were even in the Rockies' organization this time last year.
We've heard nothing but good things so far about Nicasio, who suffered a fractured C-1 vertebrae when he took a line drive off the head last August. He began facing hitters last month and Rockies manager Jim Tracy said Thursday that he'll have no restrictions during spring training. Keeping things in perspective, it's pretty amazing that he's even healthy enough to play baseball again, but if he can recapture the form that led to a promising 4.14 ERA and 58/18 K/BB ratio over 71 2/3 innings as a rookie last year, he could end up being a nice sleeper in mixed formats.
Pomeranz and White, who were acquired from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal last July, are two names who should be on your radar for the long haul. One or both could make the rotation out of camp, but given their inexperience and the wealth of options in camp, it's possible they'll be sent down to the minors to begin the season.
There's a good chance that Moscoso ends up with a spot after posting a superficially impressive 3.37 ERA and a 74/38 K/BB ratio over 128 innings with the A's in 2011, but he had a 4.70 ERA away from pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum. He's primarily a fly ball pitcher, so things could ugly in Colorado pretty quickly. Chatwood logged 142 innings as a 21-year-old with the Angels last season, but he also had an underwhelming 74/71 K/BB ratio to go along with a 4.75 ERA and probably needs more seasoning in the minors. Outman dealt with some command issues last season in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but he has pretty good stuff and owns a 3.75 ERA over 151 1/3 innings in the big leagues. If the southpaw doesn't win a rotation spot, he could be a good fit for the bullpen. Rogers and the 49-year-old Moyer (who missed last season following Tommy John surgery) are unlikely to make an impact in fantasy leagues.
One name to keep an eye on is Jorge De La Rosa, who is working back from Tommy John surgery last June. He's expected to throw bullpen sessions during spring training and should begin a minor league rehab assignment shortly after the regular season begins. If all goes well, he could be back with the Rockies in May or June. De La Rosa was never a control specialist to begin with (career 4.5 BB/9, 4.0 BB/9 since 2007), so it will be interesting to see whether he struggles with his command initially.
Reds' left field
Chris Heisey has garnered buzz as a potential fantasy sleeper after smacking 18 homers and stealing six bases over 120 games last season, but the addition of Ryan Ludwick may hurt his chances of a full-fledged breakout in 2012.
Ludwick has batted just .229/.308/.353 with a .661 OPS since being traded away from the Cardinals at the deadline in 2010, but he should enjoy finally hitting in a ballpark which caters to right-handed power. Oh, and don't forget that Reds manager Dusty Baker loves putting veterans in his lineup whenever possible.
Unfortunately a traditional platoon doesn't look like an ideal solution, as both Ludwick and Heisey are right-handed hitters. And while Ludwick had better numbers against southpaws last season (.763 OPS vs. LHP, .644 OPS vs. RHP), he has traditionally enjoyed more success against right-handed pitching (.804 OPS vs. RHP, .751 OPS vs. LHP) in his career. Same goes for Heisey (.885 OPS vs. RHP, .548 OPS vs. LHP), but given that he only has 166 big league plate appearances against left-handers, we probably need to see more before making any broad generalizations about his abilities.
Baker has already said multiple times that "everybody on my team plays," so the reality is that we might not have a clear answer on this situation before Opening Day. I prefer Heisey over Ludwick in fantasy leagues, but it's tough to endorse him outside of NL-only or deeper mixed leagues with five-outfielder spots.
Astros' closer
The Astros will probably lose 100 games for a second straight season, but somebody has to close for them, right? Last year's save leader Mark Melancon was traded to the Red Sox in December for Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland, so we should see an open competition for the ninth-inning gig during spring training.
Brandon Lyon is the early favorite by default, what with his $5.5 million salary and previous experience in the role, but who knows what he'll look like after major shoulder surgery. If he has any setbacks, that could open the door for a wide variety of options including Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Juan Abreu and Fernando Rodriguez.
There's a lot to like about Lopez, from his 2.87 ERA over the past two seasons, to his elite command and ground ball rate (56.2 percent), but his strikeout rate (6.58 K/9) doesn't exactly scream traditional closer. That could make Carpenter a viable alternative. The 26-year-old right-hander has a mid-90s fastball in his arsenal and posted a 2.93 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 27 2/3 innings at the big league level last year. Carpenter averaged 9.7 K/9 in the minors and was showing signs of improved command prior to his call-up last year, so he could be a fit in the long-term. Abreu has limited big-league experience and Rodriguez averaged 5.4 BB/9 to go along with his 3.96 ERA last season, so they should be considered long shots right now.
My guess is that Lyon will get the nod to start the season if he's healthy. However, I seriously doubt he'll end the season in role, either because he gets hurt again, proves ineffective or new GM Jeff Luhnow swaps him for whatever he can get before the trade deadline in July. Carpenter might end up being the best bet.
Nationals' center field/right field
Nationals' manager Davey Johnson continues to stump for top prospect Bryce Harper to make the Opening Day roster. If it happens, the Nationals would project to have Harper in right field and Jayson Werth in center. Assuming Adam LaRoche has no issues with his surgically-repaired shoulder, Werth would be flanked by Michael Morse in left field.
Nationals manager Mike Rizzo seems to have an open mind about the whole thing, at least publicly, but I'm guessing Harper would have to tear the cover off the ball during Grapefruit League action to justify starting his arbitration clock so quickly. He's still only 19 years old and batted .256/.329/.395 with three homers and a .724 OPS over 37 games after being promoted to Double-A Harrisburg last year. That's pretty darn impressive for the level given his age, but it's not unreasonable to say he could use a little more time in the minor leagues. Barring something unforeseen, I think Harper will make his major league debut around the same time some of the other top prospects do in late-May or June.
Assuming that's what the Nats eventually decide, Werth will likely stay in right field while center field will come down to some combination of Rick Ankiel, Mike Cameron and Roger Bernadina. It's a pretty uninspiring group from a fantasy perspective, though Bernadina's speed could be useful in some formats if he ends up on the strong side of a platoon. It's worth noting that he enters spring training out of options.
UPDATE: Mike Cameron announced his retirement over the weekend, so center field will come down to Rick Ankiel and Roger Bernadina. I still expect Bryce Harper to open the season in the minors and Jayson Werth to play right field.
Braves' backend starters
The Braves have some legitimate health concerns in their rotation, but fortunately for them, they are blessed with some of the best pitching depth in the game. Tim Hudson is currently rehabbing from November surgery to repair a herniated disk in his back and it's increasingly likely that he'll miss the first couple of weeks of the season. Tommy Hanson (shoulder) and Jair Jurrjens (knee) dealt with health problems of their own last season, but so far they appear to be on track for Opening day. Popular sleeper pick Brandon Beachy should be a lock for the rotation after posting a 3.68 ERA and 169/46 K/BB ratio over 141 2/3 innings last season. This leaves Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, Julio Teheran and Kris Medlen competing for two spots during spring training.
Minor, a 2009 first-round pick, compiled a 4.14 ERA over 15 starts at the major league level last season, including a 3.83 ERA and 51/15 K/BB ratio across 49 1/3 innings after the All-Star break. The 24-year-old southpaw is a favorite to snag one of the two spots and should be considered a sleeper in mixed formats. Delgado doesn't have the upside of Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino, but he probably has a leg up on the competition after making seven starts at the big league level last year. Give him a look in NL-only formats. Medlen only threw 2 1/3 innings late last season following Tommy John surgery and will likely end up in the bullpen.
If all goes well, the Braves will likely go into May with a rotation of Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, Beachy and Minor. But injuries or a possible trade of Jurrjens (remember, he was being shopped over the winter) could open the door for Delgado, Teheran, Medlen or Vizcaino down the road. Be sure to monitor this talented quartet.
