Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Mets, Pirates, Cubs, Padres, Athletics, Mariners, White Sox, Royals, Orioles" Tier.)
Mark Melancon (first chair), Alfredo Aceves (second chair), Boston Red Sox
Henry Rodriguez (fourth chair), Tyler Clippard (second chair), Brad Lidge (third chair), Washington Nationals
Matt Thornton (first chair), Addison Reed (second chair), Hector Santiago (third chair), Jesse Crain (fourth chair), Chicago White Sox
Jonathan Broxton (first chair), Greg Holland (second chair), Kansas City Royals
Javy Guerra (first chair), Kenley Jansen (second chair), Los Angeles Dodgers
Joel Peralta (first chair), Jake McGee (second chair), Fernando Rodney (third chair), Tampa Bay Rays
If your team shows up here, sorry. Watch the young guys and dreamcast about the future. It's all you can do.
Finding the gem in this mess won't be easy. Mark Melancon is the clear get right now -- but he's also a temporary closer, as Bailey could be back by the All-Star break. Bailey could also be out until August, depending on who you believe about the severity of his thumb surgery. At least his competition for the role is minimal, as Aceves will be needed in the rotation from time to time too. Melancon has closed before and has the better peripherals. It's worth mentioning that the Red Sox beat writers think Aceves is the guy, so if you're trolling for saves, you can pick him up. But Melancon has the peripherals of a closer, not the swing man Aceves.
Henry Rodriguez looks like he has the closer role in Washington, thanks to his 100 MPH gas and crazy hook (not thanks to his terrible control). Joel Peralta is the front runner in Tampa Bay, but he's pretty bad against lefties and might need help from lefty youngster Jake McGee from time to time. In both cases, however, we're left waiting for news about the incumbent's elbows. If the vets in front of them are just taking a few weeks off, we'll look pretty silly for getting all up in arms about this.
Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Kenley Jansen are the long-term owns on this list. If you're in a keeper league, it's fine to bypass the veterans in front of them. They've got lights-out stuff and are headed to the closer's role at some point.
But right now? Right now it's Javy Guerra, and Matt Thornton, and Jonathan Broxton probably. Thornton is the best pitcher, and his team could pump up his value before trading him, so he's the best pickup among the trio. Broxton was once a great pitcher, and he could regain his velocity (he's struck out nine in his seven spring innings), so he's next. Javy Guerra has neither shown an extended ability to strike people out at an above-average rate for a reliever, nor the ability to control the ball for more than one year. He's the worst option among guys with the "Closer" tag.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Injured
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
If only we could take a peak in the elbows of Kyle Farnsworth and Drew Storen. Farnsworth might be scarier because he's not pitching right now. Storen threw a bullpen on Tuesday and felt fine, and thinks he'll be back in mid-April.
The Deposed
None… yet.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Steals Department
Heard some feedback last week that Ben Revere wasn't a starter and was therefore a bad sleeper for speed. It was a poorly-timed announcement by the team, I'll admit that, but I'll also stick by my belief that he'll steal 35+ bases this year. Not only will he steal bases when he's in, but now that Chris Parmalee is headed to the DH role, he's only competing with Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Doumit in the outfield, and Trevor Plouffe does not own great upside, and Ryan Doumit is Mr. Breakable. Lorenzo Cain obviously has a better grip on the job than Revere, but he's owned more and also more of a .280/10/20 kind of guy and won't make the same impact in steals. John Mayberry, Jr. will have a regular role in the early season, but his contact troubles will mean that his 20 and 10 will come with a bad batting average. Brandon Belt could get 20 and 10 with a better batting average, and has made the team in San Francisco, but with the way that tream has treated him, he might best be a wait and see.
If you want a great mixed-league speedster that might still be on your waiver wire, has an assured starting job, and will put up stats that fit your 12-teamer, there's Alejandro De Aza in Chicago. He'll steal more bags than Cain, hit for a better average than Mayberry, and has a job in hand. He's a great sleeper worthy of your bench spot if you need a little speed. And if he's gone, just take the National League version -- Angel Pagan.
Deep leaguers? The player that combines a starting job with the most projected steals and the lowest ownership rates is… Jordan Schafer! He won't give you runs because the Houston offense will be that bad. He won't give you home runs, because he hasn't shown league-average power since half a season in Double-A in 2008. He won't give you a nice batting average because he strikes out too much. He does walk, though, and he can steal a base. His 83% career success rate on steals is excellent enough that he'll continue to get the green light. With Jason Bourgeois gone, there's even less competition for center field. Pencil him in for 30ish steals, a full slate of plate appearances, a few home runs… and a .250ish batting average. Hey, you chose to play in that deep league, right?
Finally! It's finally time for counting baseball. Sure, they played a few games last week, but if a bear craps in the woods and nobody hears it, it doesn't count. (That's how that saying goes, right?)
Anyway, it's a new day and we all have hope for the new season. Well, some of us have more hope than others. I'm sorry, Houston fans, the Astros probably aren't going to the postseason this year.
And so we'll name the tiers after the teams this week. The more likely the team to play October baseball, the better the closer.
We hope it helps.
Tier 1: Elite (5) (AKA: The "Red Sox, Tigers, Phillies and Yankees" Tier.)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Would you look at that. Two of the top four teams have two of the top four closers. Don't let that convince you that a top-tier closer is a prerequisite to a championship team -- fantasy or real. You'll need 600 innings from your top three starters, 2000 plate appearances from the middle of your order bats, and 60 innings from your closer.
That said, three of these four guys will provide you the double-digit strikeout rates that will help turn your mid-rotation starter into a more productive spot on your roster. If you get close to 100 strikeouts from your first closer, in other words, you'll be 30 strikeouts ahead of the rest in the bullpen.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Rays, Rangers, Angels, Cardinals" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Jordan Walden, Anaheim Angels
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays
Not too much reason to move anything around in this tier, and they're all good pitchers (and teams). The Rangers and Angels might hurt by having such great competition in their division -- something the Rays understand -- but the Cardinals should be able to take the Pujols loss in stride. And if you lose out on one of the top four closers, you should take one of these closers and remain on track.
Andrew Bailey will be out three or more months, so he drops out, but keep him around as long as you have DL space. Why not have Sergio Santos join this tier? There isn't an obvious competitor in the pen with him, and his strikeout rate has been excellent for some time. If starters usually strike out about seven batters per nine, the top 40 in saves last year struck out about 8.8 batters per nine. Santos? Try 13 per nine. Or, if you're a visual learner, from FanGraphs.com:
Tier 3: OK options (5) (AKA: The "Giants, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Braves, Indians, Brewers" Tier.
Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Two or three of these teams will make the postseason. One of them could even win a postseason series. There's reason for hope in each of these cities, and more power to the front offices that built each squad: none of these cities is considered a large market.
San Francisco didn't have the Brian Wilson they knew and loved last year, but that wasn't why they fell short. That bad offense was the reason. Wilson was so erratic that it seemed like an injury might be on the way this year. Instead, Wilson has spent the spring whiffing batters like the beard of old. He has eight strikeouts in four and 2/3 innings, and has generally been untouchable. Most spring stats don't matter, but there's some evidence that component stats, like strikeout and walk rates for pitchers, are actually slightly predictive.
If so, Brandon League will be Brandon League (two strikeouts in five innings) and Huston Street will be Huston Street (nine strikeouts in nine innings).
But Jason Motte and Rafael Betancourt? Let's just say you should keep an eye on them. Motte has eight walks against six strikeouts in his twelve appearances, and that's not too great because part of his breakout last year was a career-low walk rate. Betancourt has a 6.43 ERA this spring, but if you look closer, he's less worrisome. He has eight strikeouts against two walks in seven innings, and that's exactly what he does, year-in and year-out.
Unfortunately, though this tier lost a player to injury, there are just too many question marks in the question marks tier to promote anyone. The solid options at closer are already starting to disappear. It's the yearly quickening.
Tier 4: Question marks (9) (AKA: The "Nationals, Marlins, Rockies, Twins, Dodgers, Blue Jays" Tier.)
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Sorta tough to find teams for this tier, in the end. A few of these closers will be great values, and useful all year. The team equivalent for that sounds like a team that will be near .500 and has an outside chance of competing for the postseason. That describes these teams, but not many more.
The best closer to fit that description from this tier might be Sean Marshall. He won't cost you much, but he has the underlying skills and the current situation in order to save some games and be a strong third closer for a competitive fantasy squad looking to finish in the money. Marshall has actually been lights-out ever since he moved to the bullpen and has 16 strikeouts in his 11 spring innings to boot. He could move up these rankings with a bullet.
Joe Nathan and Carlos Marmol both have bad ERAs in the spring so far, but it's Marmol that has six walks against his eight strikeouts, while Nathan has walked three against his seven strikeouts. That, along with the distinct chance that the Cubs unload Marmol the minute he strings together a good month, makes Kerry Wood a great pickup, and Mike Adams more of an ERA/WHIP boost than a future closer.
Frank Francisco is over 250 pounds, and has been bothered by his toe and his knee, but he pronounced himself fit… to start the season. He averages about fifty innings a year, though, so Ramon Ramirez or Jon Rauch will factor in at some point. Bobby Parnell, a.k.a. Captain Fastball, can hit triple-digits on the gun and has been good in the spring, so he has an outside chance at relevance.
Matt Capps and Chris Perez aren't great pitchers. Capps, at least, doesn't walk anyone, but both of them fail to strike guys out or keep the ball on the ground. On the other hand, they seem comfortable in their jobs… right now. Watch Vinnie Pestano and Glen Perkins closely.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Mets, Pirates, Cubs, Padres, Athletics, Mariners, White Sox, Royals, Orioles" Tier.)
Mark Melancon (first chair), Alfredo Aceves (second chair), Boston Red Sox
Henry Rodriguez (fourth chair), Tyler Clippard (second chair), Brad Lidge (third chair), Washington Nationals
Matt Thornton (first chair), Addison Reed (second chair), Hector Santiago (third chair), Jesse Crain (fourth chair), Chicago White Sox
Jonathan Broxton (first chair), Greg Holland (second chair), Kansas City Royals
Javy Guerra (first chair), Kenley Jansen (second chair), Los Angeles Dodgers
Joel Peralta (first chair), Jake McGee (second chair), Fernando Rodney (third chair), Tampa Bay Rays
If your team shows up here, sorry. Watch the young guys and dreamcast about the future. It's all you can do.
Finding the gem in this mess won't be easy. Mark Melancon is the clear get right now -- but he's also a temporary closer, as Bailey could be back by the All-Star break. Bailey could also be out until August, depending on who you believe about the severity of his thumb surgery. At least his competition for the role is minimal, as Aceves will be needed in the rotation from time to time too. Melancon has closed before and has the better peripherals. It's worth mentioning that the Red Sox beat writers think Aceves is the guy, so if you're trolling for saves, you can pick him up. But Melancon has the peripherals of a closer, not the swing man Aceves.
Henry Rodriguez looks like he has the closer role in Washington, thanks to his 100 MPH gas and crazy hook (not thanks to his terrible control). Joel Peralta is the front runner in Tampa Bay, but he's pretty bad against lefties and might need help from lefty youngster Jake McGee from time to time. In both cases, however, we're left waiting for news about the incumbent's elbows. If the vets in front of them are just taking a few weeks off, we'll look pretty silly for getting all up in arms about this.
Greg Holland, Addison Reed and Kenley Jansen are the long-term owns on this list. If you're in a keeper league, it's fine to bypass the veterans in front of them. They've got lights-out stuff and are headed to the closer's role at some point.
But right now? Right now it's Javy Guerra, and Matt Thornton, and Jonathan Broxton probably. Thornton is the best pitcher, and his team could pump up his value before trading him, so he's the best pickup among the trio. Broxton was once a great pitcher, and he could regain his velocity (he's struck out nine in his seven spring innings), so he's next. Javy Guerra has neither shown an extended ability to strike people out at an above-average rate for a reliever, nor the ability to control the ball for more than one year. He's the worst option among guys with the "Closer" tag.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Injured
Andrew Bailey, Oakland Athletics
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
If only we could take a peak in the elbows of Kyle Farnsworth and Drew Storen. Farnsworth might be scarier because he's not pitching right now. Storen threw a bullpen on Tuesday and felt fine, and thinks he'll be back in mid-April.
The Deposed
None… yet.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Steals Department
Heard some feedback last week that Ben Revere wasn't a starter and was therefore a bad sleeper for speed. It was a poorly-timed announcement by the team, I'll admit that, but I'll also stick by my belief that he'll steal 35+ bases this year. Not only will he steal bases when he's in, but now that Chris Parmalee is headed to the DH role, he's only competing with Trevor Plouffe and Ryan Doumit in the outfield, and Trevor Plouffe does not own great upside, and Ryan Doumit is Mr. Breakable. Lorenzo Cain obviously has a better grip on the job than Revere, but he's owned more and also more of a .280/10/20 kind of guy and won't make the same impact in steals. John Mayberry, Jr. will have a regular role in the early season, but his contact troubles will mean that his 20 and 10 will come with a bad batting average. Brandon Belt could get 20 and 10 with a better batting average, and has made the team in San Francisco, but with the way that tream has treated him, he might best be a wait and see.
If you want a great mixed-league speedster that might still be on your waiver wire, has an assured starting job, and will put up stats that fit your 12-teamer, there's Alejandro De Aza in Chicago. He'll steal more bags than Cain, hit for a better average than Mayberry, and has a job in hand. He's a great sleeper worthy of your bench spot if you need a little speed. And if he's gone, just take the National League version -- Angel Pagan.
Deep leaguers? The player that combines a starting job with the most projected steals and the lowest ownership rates is… Jordan Schafer! He won't give you runs because the Houston offense will be that bad. He won't give you home runs, because he hasn't shown league-average power since half a season in Double-A in 2008. He won't give you a nice batting average because he strikes out too much. He does walk, though, and he can steal a base. His 83% career success rate on steals is excellent enough that he'll continue to get the green light. With Jason Bourgeois gone, there's even less competition for center field. Pencil him in for 30ish steals, a full slate of plate appearances, a few home runs… and a .250ish batting average. Hey, you chose to play in that deep league, right?