Tools and skills are at the heart of this game.
If you had the pleasure of watching just a few Michael Jordan at-bats in Double-A, you had proof that even the most gifted athletes in the world are in trouble once they step in against a Major League pitcher. And if you've had the pleasure of taking in a Jamie Moyer start any time over the last few decades, you've seen how far learned baseball skills -- and skills alone -- can take you.
We're always trying to uncover how many tools a player has, and how good he is at using those tools (or skills). When we write about reduced velocity, we're pointing out that a player is starting to lose his athleticism. But, if that same player has reduced his walk rate by learning where to put 'em, then he can survive and thrive even as he ages. It's the eternal battle of tools and skills.
Since the steals portion of this column is so much shorter, we'll use the tiers to focus on some base-stealing threats. Each tier will be named after two players. One uses his prodigious speed to steal his bags. The other adds value on the basepaths by having a good eye, judging the pitchers' move well, and picking his moments.
The best baseball teams -- real or fake -- will have a few players from each category. Because you can't be truly elite unless you have both brains and Ryan Braun.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Tony Campana and Shane Victorino" Tier.)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Tony Campana could get to second on a good drag bunt. He could score from first on a nibbler. Tony Campana could steal first. He doesn't always steal bases, but when he does, he doesn't get caught. He is the speediest man in the world. Shane Victorino used to be that guy, but he doesn't quite have the wheels he used to. After all, he's 31. But one thing the Lower-Flying Hawaiian does really well now is identify the correct time to take off. Since the beginning of 2010, he has 60 steals… and hasn't even been caught ten times yet.
If we go with the idea that gas is athleticism or tools, and learning to corral that gas is a learned skill, then Craig Kimbrel is the five-tool dude and Mariano Rivera is the guy who has gone above and beyond his physical attributes. Mo has certainly succeeded despite less gas every year, and mostly by knowing his strength -- that cutter -- and having pinpoint control. Kimbrel has gas and sometimes doesn't seem to know where it's going. That put Kimbrel down the list -- he's walked a bit too many this year -- but it also gives him the most strikeouts in the tier.
John Axford is having the same control issues, but at least it's only one walk in his last five appearances. Jonathan Papelbon is showing his worst velocity since his rookie year, but he's still dominating. His pitching mix percentages show that he's using his split-finger more, which could be his way of learning how to make it work. Or it could just be the early season -- league average velocity peaks in August and has about a half-mile per hour variance during the year. Still, add a half-tick to Papelbon's gas and he's still way behind what he's shown in previous years.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Michael Bourn and Jason Heyward" Tier.)
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Here's a set of teammates that have accrued their steals in very different ways. This isn't to say that Heyward isn't fast -- he's got some wheels -- but if he raced Michael Bourn down the line it's clear who would win. That probably means that Heyward won't reach the same stolen base totals, but it is also means that Heyward might be able to give you that handful of steals late into his career, since he depends less on straight-up speed.
Seven years ago, J.J. Putz had a 96 MPH fastball and a minuscule walk rate. He even got tons of ground balls, but it was with his slider and changeup combo. These days, Putz is working around 91-92, but he's throwing the splitter a ton, and still has that great walk rate. Really, the only question is health -- since he left Seattle, his 58 innings last year were the most he could manage.
Speaking of walks. If he keeps his current pace, Rafael Betancourt might give up 50% more walks than he did last year. That would mean 12 on the year -- he's fine. Joel Hanrahan's control problems are more worrisome, given he had them as a starter in the Minor Leagues once upon a time. But he hasn't walked a guy in a week and should be good. Jose Valverde has more walks than strikeouts. THAT's something to worry about. If he didn't have so much leash, he'd be dropping tiers now and Joaquin Benoit would be disappearing from your waiver wire quicker.
Huston Street's the newcomer. His ballpark looks like a perfect fit for the fly ball guy, and he's responded by showing a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the young season. You can't predict save chances -- even a bad team like the Padres will play in plenty of close games -- so you might as well go for a good pitcher in line for all of his team's saves. There's an injury asterisk here, but research has shown that part of the Denver advantage is a difficulty in recovery. Maybe San Diego will help keep Street healthy -- and maybe he'll stay in San Diego all year. No trade rumblings yet though.
Tier 3: OK options (5) (AKA: The "Emilio Bonifacio and Carlos Beltran" Tier.
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Here's one of the starker pairings, especially these days. Emilio Bonifacio doesn't have patience or power, and strikes out a little much for a guy with his offensive profile. He wasn't a good defender on the infield. Now, he's a burner at the top of a good lineup, with a team that will let him run. Carlos Beltran used to be more of that guy, but even now, with his knees grinding into dust, he's stealing bases. He has the highest steal percentage in the history of baseball. That's smart.
There's an awkward moment here when you realize the okay options aren't as pretty as they should be. The top tiers have plenty of good pitchers, but once you hit this area, the question marks start cropping up too quickly.
Sean Marshall found that moving to the bullpen made his 87 MPH fastball hit 91, and suddenly his five-pitch mix looked even better. Now he's had a little work in the pen and he's dropped the changeup -- he still has four pitches, which is about two more than your average reliever. He has a great strikeout rate, good control, and ground-balls by the dozen. If he'd been a closer for more than two months, he'd be in the next tier already. But he did plenty of learning before he became a closer, and should be fine all year. Aroldis Chapman reportedly doesn't like to warm up on consecutive days and isn't a good option in the role then.
But the rest of the tier has louder question marks. Joe Nathan has his elite swinging strike rate back, and his velocity is back up over 93 MPH, but it's not quite like it used to be. And he's still a fly-ball pitcher in Arlington. Brandon League gets grounders. He understands them, and he coaxes them. But in the past, he's struck out more guys and walked fewer than now. He's also on a team that might decide to look to the future at any time -- and League's a free agent at the end of the year. Jim Johnson is the new Brandon League, which means that the strikeout upside is also low and he has less leash since he's less seasoned. But the Orioles own him for another year, and the only reason Pedro Strop got any saves was because Johnson was sick.
Leaping tall buildings and zooming from the final tier to this one -- further 'proving' the assertion that the tiers suddenly drop off -- is Santiago Casilla. The question was whether or not Casilla would hold off Sergio Romo, who is in some respects a better pitcher. But Romo's best pitch is a slider, which has some platoon splits, and he has had a wonky elbow in the past. The team seemed to want to try Casilla first (they did the same last September) and now he's shaken off some adversity and shined in the role. It's likely his the rest of the season. Congratulations to those of you that picked him up based on his first chair seating here.
Tier 4: Question marks (9) (AKA: The "Adam Jones and Dustin Pedroia" Tier.)
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Francisco Cordero, Toronto Blue Jays
This is not to say that Adam Jones is swift like a blur. But Jones did come into the league as a five-tool center fielder, and he's never stolen more than 13 bases in a year. He's barely stolen the bases he's stolen at a break-even rate (67.6% career, 66.7% is break-even, value-wise). Dustin Pedroia stole one base in 493 Triple-A plate appearances before hitting the bigs. Since, he's stolen 84 bases at an 80% success rate. In his breakout year, he stole 20 bases… and was caught once. This tier represents a good enough tier, as in Pedroia's got good enough speed to get it done. The top of the tier is itching to move upwards, but it was a bad week to make the move.
Javy Guerra, for example. He's been showing more swinging strikes than he's ever shown in his career, and he's had a better walk rate recently, too. He's (very slowly) changed my mind about him a little. Then he spent the last week doing his best to blow three games in a row. There's no talk about Kenley Jansen just yet, but with Jansen also showing improved control, and flashing better stuff… change might still happen.
Grant Balfour decided that this week was a good week to blow some saves, too -- Jordan Noberto had to get the final out for him Tuesday night. Frank Francisco has a hamstring problem and can't find the plate. Brett Myers already has trade rumors being bandied about. Jonathan Broxton has rediscovered the velocity but is still missing the swinging strikes. Capps still has great control, and a modicum of ground balls, but nary a strikeout to be found. A couple of these guys will persevere and be valuable all year. A couple won't. For the next week though, they'll be okay.
There's a bit of a change of heart represented at the bottom.
We've moved the temporary closers into this tier. They probably represent the closers I get the most negative feedback about, but that's not why they are up. They're all decent pitchers, but that's not why they are up. They all might lose their jobs within the next month, but obviously that's not why they are up. The reason they are up is because there's almost no doubt that they'll get the NEXT save for their team. As much as it made sense to keep them down because their usefulness is limited, it makes sense to reward them for the certainty they provide in the short run. Even if Francisco Cordero blew that game against the Rangers Tuesday night.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tools and skills are at the heart of this game.
If you had the pleasure of watching just a few Michael Jordan at-bats in Double-A, you had proof that even the most gifted athletes in the world are in trouble once they step in against a Major League pitcher. And if you've had the pleasure of taking in a Jamie Moyer start any time over the last few decades, you've seen how far learned baseball skills -- and skills alone -- can take you.
We're always trying to uncover how many tools a player has, and how good he is at using those tools (or skills). When we write about reduced velocity, we're pointing out that a player is starting to lose his athleticism. But, if that same player has reduced his walk rate by learning where to put 'em, then he can survive and thrive even as he ages. It's the eternal battle of tools and skills.
Since the steals portion of this column is so much shorter, we'll use the tiers to focus on some base-stealing threats. Each tier will be named after two players. One uses his prodigious speed to steal his bags. The other adds value on the basepaths by having a good eye, judging the pitchers' move well, and picking his moments.
The best baseball teams -- real or fake -- will have a few players from each category. Because you can't be truly elite unless you have both brains and Ryan Braun.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Tony Campana and Shane Victorino" Tier.)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Tony Campana could get to second on a good drag bunt. He could score from first on a nibbler. Tony Campana could steal first. He doesn't always steal bases, but when he does, he doesn't get caught. He is the speediest man in the world. Shane Victorino used to be that guy, but he doesn't quite have the wheels he used to. After all, he's 31. But one thing the Lower-Flying Hawaiian does really well now is identify the correct time to take off. Since the beginning of 2010, he has 60 steals… and hasn't even been caught ten times yet.
If we go with the idea that gas is athleticism or tools, and learning to corral that gas is a learned skill, then Craig Kimbrel is the five-tool dude and Mariano Rivera is the guy who has gone above and beyond his physical attributes. Mo has certainly succeeded despite less gas every year, and mostly by knowing his strength -- that cutter -- and having pinpoint control. Kimbrel has gas and sometimes doesn't seem to know where it's going. That put Kimbrel down the list -- he's walked a bit too many this year -- but it also gives him the most strikeouts in the tier.
John Axford is having the same control issues, but at least it's only one walk in his last five appearances. Jonathan Papelbon is showing his worst velocity since his rookie year, but he's still dominating. His pitching mix percentages show that he's using his split-finger more, which could be his way of learning how to make it work. Or it could just be the early season -- league average velocity peaks in August and has about a half-mile per hour variance during the year. Still, add a half-tick to Papelbon's gas and he's still way behind what he's shown in previous years.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (6) (AKA: The "Michael Bourn and Jason Heyward" Tier.)
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Here's a set of teammates that have accrued their steals in very different ways. This isn't to say that Heyward isn't fast -- he's got some wheels -- but if he raced Michael Bourn down the line it's clear who would win. That probably means that Heyward won't reach the same stolen base totals, but it is also means that Heyward might be able to give you that handful of steals late into his career, since he depends less on straight-up speed.
Seven years ago, J.J. Putz had a 96 MPH fastball and a minuscule walk rate. He even got tons of ground balls, but it was with his slider and changeup combo. These days, Putz is working around 91-92, but he's throwing the splitter a ton, and still has that great walk rate. Really, the only question is health -- since he left Seattle, his 58 innings last year were the most he could manage.
Speaking of walks. If he keeps his current pace, Rafael Betancourt might give up 50% more walks than he did last year. That would mean 12 on the year -- he's fine. Joel Hanrahan's control problems are more worrisome, given he had them as a starter in the Minor Leagues once upon a time. But he hasn't walked a guy in a week and should be good. Jose Valverde has more walks than strikeouts. THAT's something to worry about. If he didn't have so much leash, he'd be dropping tiers now and Joaquin Benoit would be disappearing from your waiver wire quicker.
Huston Street's the newcomer. His ballpark looks like a perfect fit for the fly ball guy, and he's responded by showing a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio on the young season. You can't predict save chances -- even a bad team like the Padres will play in plenty of close games -- so you might as well go for a good pitcher in line for all of his team's saves. There's an injury asterisk here, but research has shown that part of the Denver advantage is a difficulty in recovery. Maybe San Diego will help keep Street healthy -- and maybe he'll stay in San Diego all year. No trade rumblings yet though.
Tier 3: OK options (5) (AKA: The "Emilio Bonifacio and Carlos Beltran" Tier.
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Here's one of the starker pairings, especially these days. Emilio Bonifacio doesn't have patience or power, and strikes out a little much for a guy with his offensive profile. He wasn't a good defender on the infield. Now, he's a burner at the top of a good lineup, with a team that will let him run. Carlos Beltran used to be more of that guy, but even now, with his knees grinding into dust, he's stealing bases. He has the highest steal percentage in the history of baseball. That's smart.
There's an awkward moment here when you realize the okay options aren't as pretty as they should be. The top tiers have plenty of good pitchers, but once you hit this area, the question marks start cropping up too quickly.
Sean Marshall found that moving to the bullpen made his 87 MPH fastball hit 91, and suddenly his five-pitch mix looked even better. Now he's had a little work in the pen and he's dropped the changeup -- he still has four pitches, which is about two more than your average reliever. He has a great strikeout rate, good control, and ground-balls by the dozen. If he'd been a closer for more than two months, he'd be in the next tier already. But he did plenty of learning before he became a closer, and should be fine all year. Aroldis Chapman reportedly doesn't like to warm up on consecutive days and isn't a good option in the role then.
But the rest of the tier has louder question marks. Joe Nathan has his elite swinging strike rate back, and his velocity is back up over 93 MPH, but it's not quite like it used to be. And he's still a fly-ball pitcher in Arlington. Brandon League gets grounders. He understands them, and he coaxes them. But in the past, he's struck out more guys and walked fewer than now. He's also on a team that might decide to look to the future at any time -- and League's a free agent at the end of the year. Jim Johnson is the new Brandon League, which means that the strikeout upside is also low and he has less leash since he's less seasoned. But the Orioles own him for another year, and the only reason Pedro Strop got any saves was because Johnson was sick.
Leaping tall buildings and zooming from the final tier to this one -- further 'proving' the assertion that the tiers suddenly drop off -- is Santiago Casilla. The question was whether or not Casilla would hold off Sergio Romo, who is in some respects a better pitcher. But Romo's best pitch is a slider, which has some platoon splits, and he has had a wonky elbow in the past. The team seemed to want to try Casilla first (they did the same last September) and now he's shaken off some adversity and shined in the role. It's likely his the rest of the season. Congratulations to those of you that picked him up based on his first chair seating here.
Tier 4: Question marks (9) (AKA: The "Adam Jones and Dustin Pedroia" Tier.)
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Francisco Cordero, Toronto Blue Jays
This is not to say that Adam Jones is swift like a blur. But Jones did come into the league as a five-tool center fielder, and he's never stolen more than 13 bases in a year. He's barely stolen the bases he's stolen at a break-even rate (67.6% career, 66.7% is break-even, value-wise). Dustin Pedroia stole one base in 493 Triple-A plate appearances before hitting the bigs. Since, he's stolen 84 bases at an 80% success rate. In his breakout year, he stole 20 bases… and was caught once. This tier represents a good enough tier, as in Pedroia's got good enough speed to get it done. The top of the tier is itching to move upwards, but it was a bad week to make the move.
Javy Guerra, for example. He's been showing more swinging strikes than he's ever shown in his career, and he's had a better walk rate recently, too. He's (very slowly) changed my mind about him a little. Then he spent the last week doing his best to blow three games in a row. There's no talk about Kenley Jansen just yet, but with Jansen also showing improved control, and flashing better stuff… change might still happen.
Grant Balfour decided that this week was a good week to blow some saves, too -- Jordan Noberto had to get the final out for him Tuesday night. Frank Francisco has a hamstring problem and can't find the plate. Brett Myers already has trade rumors being bandied about. Jonathan Broxton has rediscovered the velocity but is still missing the swinging strikes. Capps still has great control, and a modicum of ground balls, but nary a strikeout to be found. A couple of these guys will persevere and be valuable all year. A couple won't. For the next week though, they'll be okay.
There's a bit of a change of heart represented at the bottom.
We've moved the temporary closers into this tier. They probably represent the closers I get the most negative feedback about, but that's not why they are up. They're all decent pitchers, but that's not why they are up. They all might lose their jobs within the next month, but obviously that's not why they are up. The reason they are up is because there's almost no doubt that they'll get the NEXT save for their team. As much as it made sense to keep them down because their usefulness is limited, it makes sense to reward them for the certainty they provide in the short run. Even if Francisco Cordero blew that game against the Rangers Tuesday night.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Will Venable and Chase Headley" Tier.)
Heath Bell (first chair), Steve Cishek (second chair), Edward Mujica (third chair), Miami Marlins
Chris Perez (first chair), Vinnie Pestano (second chair), Cleveland Indians
Alfredo Aceves (first chair), Franklin Morales? (second chair), Boston Red Sox
Hector Santiago (first chair), Matt Thornton (second chair), Addison Reed (third chair), Chicago White Sox
Carlos Marmol (first chair), Rafael Dolis (second chair), Chicago Cubs
Scott Downs (first chair), Jordan Walden (second chair), Los Angeles Angels
How about another set of teammates? Venable has tools for years, and in his defense, he's got a pretty good success rate so far (79%). But this year, he's been caught five times against three stolen bases. And he's struck out so much over his career that there is a little bit of the taste of "toolsy, needs seasoning" to him. Headley was supposed to be more of a power and patience corner infielder, but PetCo killed his power stroke. So he started hitting ground balls and using his wheels. That's lead to an 82% success rate and years like last year when he stole 13 and was caught twice. Unfortunately, if you play too long in this tier, you'll get caught.
Heath Bell might claw his way back out of here before long. He looked much better against the Giants on Tuesday night, at least in terms of results. But if you look closer, you'll see that he still only got one strike on four curveballs (he's been bouncing them), didn't get a whiff (it's been a problem), and hit 91.8 MPH max on his fastball (his velocity is down big. With new research suggesting that relievers lose gas quicker with age than starters, Bell is looking like a poor investment in real life and fantasy these days. Steve Cishek is always the guy warming up right before or during Bell's blowups, so he's probably next.
Maybe Chris Perez and Alfredo Aceves will just do the job ugly all year. The Indians might be saber-savvy enough to know that the biggest inning is not always the ninth, so maybe they don't mind that Vinnie Pestano is the better pitcher. The Red Sox? Right now they don't have a better option. Aaron Cook is up in the bullpen, but that's because of a contractually negotiated requirement. Otherwise, it might still be the more exciting Junichi Tazawa. Franklin Morales is a lefty and probably won't close. It's a game of 'nose' that Aceves lost.
Hector Santiago is still the White Sox closer, or so says his coach. He came into the game in a non-save situation last night, though, and gave up baserunners like nobody's business. None scored, but it has to worry his owners. Matt Thornton got a save in the interim and could be next, but it's still Addison Reed that has next next.
Carlos Marmol always had the walks problem. This year, his strikeout rate (and swinging strike rate) have disappeared, making him a pumpkin. He's probably only still in the role because Rafael Dolis is no great shakes, with control problems of his own and only ground balls to counter them with. The Cubs are also staying patient because they'll want some sort of compensation when Marmol finally walks, or at least out of his remaining contract, and the only way they can do that is if Marmol finds it again in the closer's role. Another situation that should remain ugly all year.
The Angels claim that moving Jordan Walden to the setup role was temporary, and that the elder statesmen and lefty Scott Downs is only keeping the seat warm. But now the team is rumored to have discussed Brandon League, Grant Balfour and Joel Hanrahan in trades. That sounds like a team that's more nervous about Walden then they want to publicly let on. Don't drop the young fireballer yet, but if you can get another potential closer on your team somehow, now's the time to mitigate your risk. Walden had this control problem before, but it was as a starter. We all thought that moving to the pen and a little seasoning might halt that control problem. Maybe it's just the jump-step delivery that hurts him in that arena. He's still got gas, and the potential to get back in that role -- managers don't usually like lefties as closers -- but it's a waiting game now.
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Injured
Andrew Bailey, Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Farnsworth was just pushed to the 60-day DL, meaning June 5th is about the earliest you'll see him. That makes Fernando Rodney a little tastier. Drew Storen, on the other hand, feels like he's ahead of schedule, which would have him back before the All-Star break anyway. Makes wild thing O Henry Rodriguez a little less tasty. Sergio Santos is still due back around the end of May.
The Deposed
None… yet. Maybe Jordan Walden.
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The Steals Department
How about a trio of guys that are all about the same for you mixed-leaguers? One of them should be unowned in your league, and they are all about the same. Denard Span is the guy that's owned in the most leagues. He's finally playing regularly and has stolen a few bases. In a good year, given his contact-heavy approach and decent wheels, he could hit .280 with 20+ steals. Alex Presley is playing semi-regularly in the Pirates' outfield. He doesn't make as much contact, but given his ground-ball heavy approach, and decent wheels, he could hit .280 with 20+ steals from here on out. Michael Brantley is the least-owned, but he's the regular center fielder in Cleveland. Given his contact-heavy approach.. you get the picture. He could hit .280 with 20+ steals. Presley might have the best power of the bunch, but he wouldn't out-homer either Brantley or Span by much more than a handful, so that shouldn't make up your mind. You could even play the matchups if all three were available and you really wanted to comb through the catchers on the teams they are facing -- some catchers get run on.
Tony Campana sure went on a tear, didn't he? This week's deep leaguer probably won't steal a ton of bases right off the bat. And in fact, Brian Bogusevic just saw his playing time take a hit -- Travis Buck is back and stealing some time from him in the outfield now. But Bogusevic is the left-hander, and that means he's going to get more of the at-bats against right-handers, and there are more right-handers in the world. (As a comparison, Carlos Gomez has been a popular question on twitter, and he's a right-hander who gets platooned against left-handers more often, which means fewer plate appearances for him.) Bogusevic has also been showing great plate discipline, which fits with his background. The former pitcher has always been patient. That puts him on base more, and in the Minor Leagues he was a high-success base stealer (74 stolen bases against eight caught stealing). He could hit .250 and steal 15-20 bases over the rest of the year, and with a little batted-ball luck, the batting average could look nicer. And now starting center fielder Jordan Schafer has an oblique strain -- that could mean more PAs for Bogusevic.