Pedro Power
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Since I last left you, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were both called up to the big leagues. It's a little too late for me to tell you to go out and get these guys, as they should be stashed away in all formats on pure potential alone, but I'm a bit surprised that Trout is owned in just 52 percent of Y! and 55.7 of ESPN.com leagues while Harper is owned in 76 percent of Y! leagues and 90.7 percent of ESPN.com leagues.
OK, maybe "surprised" is the wrong word here. The amount of attention paid to Harper dwarfs what we've seen with Trout, so the ownership disparity is completely understandable. But it's worth noting that the 20-year-old Trout has previous major league experience on his side and he was hitting .403 with ten extra-base hits (one homer), six stolen bases and a 1.091 OPS before his promotion from Triple-A Salt Lake. The Angels' still have a log jam between the outfield, third base and DH spots, but the promotion was completely justified.
As for Harper, he was hitting .250 with one homer and a .708 OPS with Triple-A Syracuse. Holding his own for a 19-year-old? Absolutely. But his call-up was more a reflection of a team that needed to spark a stalling offense. Harper does something each game to remind us that he has a chance to be a special player, but history tells us to temper our expectations given his age. My best-case scenario is that he comes close to matching Ken Griffey, Jr.'s production (.264/.329/.420 with 16 homers, 61 RBI, 16 stolen bases and a .748 OPS) as a 19-year-old in 1989.
I'm not completely convinced that Harper will be with the big club all year, but even if he is here to stay, Trout's speed gives him the slight edge in fantasy leagues this year. 2013 and beyond, well, that's a different story.
MIXED LEAGUES
Scott Downs RP, Angels (Yahoo: 48 percent owned, ESPN: 45.3 percent)
It was a bit of a surprise when young fireballer Jordan Walden was removed from the closer role late last week, but Downs is certainly good enough to run away with the job. The 36-year-old left-hander has notched back-to-back save opportunities since getting the nod and has yet to allow a run in 9 1/3 innings this season. The strikeout rate (6.89 K/9 career) isn't what we typically see from a closer, but Downs has excellent control (2.3 BB/9 since 2009) and a career ground ball rate of 57.4 percent. Walden could eventually get his job back and the Angels are reportedly talking to other teams about a closer, but Downs is a safe add in all formats right now.
Pedro Alvarez 3B, Pirates (Yahoo: 22 percent owned, ESPN: 10.7 percent)
Alvarez appeared bound for a possible demotion just a couple weeks ago, but he's suddenly one of the hottest waiver wire adds out there. After collecting two hits and 15 strikeouts through his first 30 at-bats this season, the 25-year-old third baseman is batting .388 (14-for-36) with four homers and 10 RBI over his last 10 games. This includes his current five-game hitting streak. The strikeouts are still a major concern, so don't expect him to help much in the batting average department, but the potential for 20-plus home runs is very real. Third base is suddenly very thin, so give him a shot if you're searching for a replacement for Pablo Sandoval, Evan Longoria or Kevin Youkilis.
John Danks SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 38 percent owned, ESPN: 44.4 percent)
Danks was hammered for seven runs over 5 2/3 innings by the Red Sox last Friday and has an ugly 6.23 ERA across his first five starts this season, so it's no surprise to see him sitting on the waiver wire in mixed leagues right now. It remains to be seen whether his diminished velocity and suddenly shaky control is just a blip or part of a bigger issue, but his track record makes him a worthy buy-low. Remember, he had a 6.89 ERA and 10/14 K/BB ratio in five starts last May before posting a 3.69 ERA for the rest of the season.
Carlos Quentin OF, Padres (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 23.4 percent)
Quentin began a minor league rehab assignment this week with Triple-A Tucson as he works his way back from March surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. He was the DH on Tuesday and played three innings in left field on Wednesday, but he's expected to need at least seven rehab games before coming off the disabled list. Quentin's stock has tumbled a bit because he has left one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors for one of the most pitcher-friendly, but the good news is that PETCO isn't nearly as hard on right-handed power hitters as it is left-handers. Quentin will be a free agent after this season and the Padres are rebuilding, so he could find himself with a contender before the deadline, anyway. In mixed leagues that are 12 teams or deeper, he should be owned.
Henderson Alvarez SP, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 13 percent owned, ESPN: 2.7 percent)
Do I completely buy Alvarez's impressive April? Not necessarily. While his 3.62 ERA through five starts is pretty nice, his 4.93 xFIP indicates that he has been somewhat fortunate. And it doesn't take much digging to see why. The 22-year-old right-hander has an underwhelming 9/9 K/BB ratio over 32 1/3 innings and has benefited from a .196 batting average on balls in play. The encouraging part is that he has demonstrated excellent command in the majors (1.59 BB/9 in 96 innings) and has a ground ball rate of 58 percent this season. I wouldn't trust Alvarez every time out in mixed leagues, especially in the power-packed AL East, but I like him for upcoming road starts against the Angels and Twins.
Ty Wigginton 1B/3B/OF, Phillies (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 13.5 percent)
That's right, it's time for our annual Wiggy mention. The 34-year-old has taken advantage of regular playing time with the Phillies by hitting .328/.395/.463 with two homers, 10 RBI and an .857 OPS through his first 67 plate appearances. He has hit safely in 13 out of his last 14 games. His .392 batting average on balls in play (.293 career BABIP) indicates that his hot start is unsustainable, but with John Mayberry struggling and Jim Thome on the disabled list, he should continue to get the bulk of the playing time at first base while Ryan Howard rehabs from Achilles surgery. The multi-position eligibility comes in handy in deeper mixed leagues.
Josh Reddick OF, Athletics (Yahoo: 12 percent owned, ESPN: 14.4 percent)
On the strength of his current seven-game hitting streak, Reddick is batting .274 with four homers, nine RBI, 13 runs scored, three stolen bases and a .772 OPS through 25 games this season. I'll admit that's not going to blow most fantasy owners away, he's doing enough in all categories to warrant attention in deeper leagues. His lack of patience is still an issue (just three walks in 106 plate appearances this season, 4.9 percent career walk rate) and I would like to see more RBI, but the opportunities should be there as long as he continues to bat third in the A's lineup.
Tony Campana OF, Cubs (Yahoo: 13 percent owned, ESPN: 16.7 percent)
Yep, it only took one week for Campana to graduate from the NL-only to the mixed league side. And why the heck not? Though 10 games, Campana is hitting .355 (11-for-31) with seven stolen bases and seven runs scored. Only eight players have more stolen bases and most of them have three times as many at-bats as Campana. I'm not suggesting you go out and pick him up in a shallow mixed league, as the 25-year-old is essentially a one-trick pony with absolutely no power, but he makes for a fine pickup in five-outfielder formats. Just keep in mind that Campana could sit against left-handed starters, so he's more useful in a daily league.
Will Middlebrooks 3B, Red Sox (Yahoo: 10 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
Boston, your savior has arrived. OK, not quite. Middlebrooks will only hold down third base until Kevin Youkilis is ready to return from a lower back strain. However, the 23-year-old makes for an interesting short-term option in deeper mixed formats. Middlebrooks went 2-for-3 with a double, a walk and a stolen base in his major league debut Wednesday against the A's and was hitting .333/.380/.677 with nine homers, 27 RBI and a 1.057 OPS over his first 100 plate appearances with Triple-A Pawtucket this season. I wouldn't drop anyone of great importance for him, as his first stint in the majors will likely be a brief one and his aggressive approach could lead to some growing pains, but nothing wrong with taking the proverbial flier.
Shopping at the five-and-dime:
(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)
Brian Fuentes RP, Athletics (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent)
Grant Balfour deserves a bit of a leash with the closer role, but he has allowed five runs on five hits and two walks over his last two appearances and was pulled in favor of Jordan Norberto during a save situation Tuesday night against the Red Sox. Fuentes got the save -- the 200th of his career -- on Wednesday and would be the likely alternative if Balfour's struggles continue. Sure, Ryan Cook is beginning to look like a possible "closer of the future" and I would much prefer to see him get a shot, but Fuentes has that "proven closer" tag which most managers seem to dig. Getting a few saves under his belt could also enhance his trade value leading up to the deadline. Stash if you're in the mood to speculate.
Steve Cishek RP, Marlins (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 0.7 percent)
Heath Bell was terrible again Wednesday night against the Giants, allowing three straight hits to begin the bottom of the ninth before getting pulled from a save situation. He ended up getting charged with two runs and saw his ERA jump to 11.74 on the year. The 34-year-old right-hander has allowed 13 hits and eight walks over just 7 2/3 innings of work this season while his velocity and swinging-strike rate continue to decline. His three-year, $27 million deal provides some extra job security, but Marlins' manager Ozzie Guillen suggested after Wednesday's game that he Bell could be pulled from the closer role, at least on a temporary basis. Cishek is the strongest candidate to replace him, as he got the call in the ninth inning last night and has an 0.79 ERA and 12/4 K/BB ratio over 11 1/3 innings this season, but Guillen could also turn to Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb.
Suitable streamer:
Drew Smyly SP, Tigers (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 14.9 percent)
I had Smyly under my AL-only recommendations in the very first Waiver Wired of the season, but the rookie left-hander is now on the mixed league side after posting a 1.23 ERA and 22/8 K/BB ratio in 22 innings through his first four major league starts. His strand rate is a perfect 100 percent, so he can't be this fortunate forever, but he's racking up plenty of swings and misses and his control has been very solid since he walked three over four innings in his major league debut. It's tough to make a strong judgment with such a small sample, but give him a whirl Friday against a White Sox team that is batting just .199 with a .614 OPS against southpaws this season.
Since I last left you, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were both called up to the big leagues. It's a little too late for me to tell you to go out and get these guys, as they should be stashed away in all formats on pure potential alone, but I'm a bit surprised that Trout is owned in just 52 percent of Y! and 55.7 of ESPN.com leagues while Harper is owned in 76 percent of Y! leagues and 90.7 percent of ESPN.com leagues.
OK, maybe "surprised" is the wrong word here. The amount of attention paid to Harper dwarfs what we've seen with Trout, so the ownership disparity is completely understandable. But it's worth noting that the 20-year-old Trout has previous major league experience on his side and he was hitting .403 with ten extra-base hits (one homer), six stolen bases and a 1.091 OPS before his promotion from Triple-A Salt Lake. The Angels' still have a log jam between the outfield, third base and DH spots, but the promotion was completely justified.
As for Harper, he was hitting .250 with one homer and a .708 OPS with Triple-A Syracuse. Holding his own for a 19-year-old? Absolutely. But his call-up was more a reflection of a team that needed to spark a stalling offense. Harper does something each game to remind us that he has a chance to be a special player, but history tells us to temper our expectations given his age. My best-case scenario is that he comes close to matching Ken Griffey, Jr.'s production (.264/.329/.420 with 16 homers, 61 RBI, 16 stolen bases and a .748 OPS) as a 19-year-old in 1989.
I'm not completely convinced that Harper will be with the big club all year, but even if he is here to stay, Trout's speed gives him the slight edge in fantasy leagues this year. 2013 and beyond, well, that's a different story.
MIXED LEAGUES
Scott Downs RP, Angels (Yahoo: 48 percent owned, ESPN: 45.3 percent)
It was a bit of a surprise when young fireballer Jordan Walden was removed from the closer role late last week, but Downs is certainly good enough to run away with the job. The 36-year-old left-hander has notched back-to-back save opportunities since getting the nod and has yet to allow a run in 9 1/3 innings this season. The strikeout rate (6.89 K/9 career) isn't what we typically see from a closer, but Downs has excellent control (2.3 BB/9 since 2009) and a career ground ball rate of 57.4 percent. Walden could eventually get his job back and the Angels are reportedly talking to other teams about a closer, but Downs is a safe add in all formats right now.
Pedro Alvarez 3B, Pirates (Yahoo: 22 percent owned, ESPN: 10.7 percent)
Alvarez appeared bound for a possible demotion just a couple weeks ago, but he's suddenly one of the hottest waiver wire adds out there. After collecting two hits and 15 strikeouts through his first 30 at-bats this season, the 25-year-old third baseman is batting .388 (14-for-36) with four homers and 10 RBI over his last 10 games. This includes his current five-game hitting streak. The strikeouts are still a major concern, so don't expect him to help much in the batting average department, but the potential for 20-plus home runs is very real. Third base is suddenly very thin, so give him a shot if you're searching for a replacement for Pablo Sandoval, Evan Longoria or Kevin Youkilis.
John Danks SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 38 percent owned, ESPN: 44.4 percent)
Danks was hammered for seven runs over 5 2/3 innings by the Red Sox last Friday and has an ugly 6.23 ERA across his first five starts this season, so it's no surprise to see him sitting on the waiver wire in mixed leagues right now. It remains to be seen whether his diminished velocity and suddenly shaky control is just a blip or part of a bigger issue, but his track record makes him a worthy buy-low. Remember, he had a 6.89 ERA and 10/14 K/BB ratio in five starts last May before posting a 3.69 ERA for the rest of the season.
Carlos Quentin OF, Padres (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 23.4 percent)
Quentin began a minor league rehab assignment this week with Triple-A Tucson as he works his way back from March surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. He was the DH on Tuesday and played three innings in left field on Wednesday, but he's expected to need at least seven rehab games before coming off the disabled list. Quentin's stock has tumbled a bit because he has left one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors for one of the most pitcher-friendly, but the good news is that PETCO isn't nearly as hard on right-handed power hitters as it is left-handers. Quentin will be a free agent after this season and the Padres are rebuilding, so he could find himself with a contender before the deadline, anyway. In mixed leagues that are 12 teams or deeper, he should be owned.
Henderson Alvarez SP, Blue Jays (Yahoo: 13 percent owned, ESPN: 2.7 percent)
Do I completely buy Alvarez's impressive April? Not necessarily. While his 3.62 ERA through five starts is pretty nice, his 4.93 xFIP indicates that he has been somewhat fortunate. And it doesn't take much digging to see why. The 22-year-old right-hander has an underwhelming 9/9 K/BB ratio over 32 1/3 innings and has benefited from a .196 batting average on balls in play. The encouraging part is that he has demonstrated excellent command in the majors (1.59 BB/9 in 96 innings) and has a ground ball rate of 58 percent this season. I wouldn't trust Alvarez every time out in mixed leagues, especially in the power-packed AL East, but I like him for upcoming road starts against the Angels and Twins.
Ty Wigginton 1B/3B/OF, Phillies (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 13.5 percent)
That's right, it's time for our annual Wiggy mention. The 34-year-old has taken advantage of regular playing time with the Phillies by hitting .328/.395/.463 with two homers, 10 RBI and an .857 OPS through his first 67 plate appearances. He has hit safely in 13 out of his last 14 games. His .392 batting average on balls in play (.293 career BABIP) indicates that his hot start is unsustainable, but with John Mayberry struggling and Jim Thome on the disabled list, he should continue to get the bulk of the playing time at first base while Ryan Howard rehabs from Achilles surgery. The multi-position eligibility comes in handy in deeper mixed leagues.
Josh Reddick OF, Athletics (Yahoo: 12 percent owned, ESPN: 14.4 percent)
On the strength of his current seven-game hitting streak, Reddick is batting .274 with four homers, nine RBI, 13 runs scored, three stolen bases and a .772 OPS through 25 games this season. I'll admit that's not going to blow most fantasy owners away, he's doing enough in all categories to warrant attention in deeper leagues. His lack of patience is still an issue (just three walks in 106 plate appearances this season, 4.9 percent career walk rate) and I would like to see more RBI, but the opportunities should be there as long as he continues to bat third in the A's lineup.
Tony Campana OF, Cubs (Yahoo: 13 percent owned, ESPN: 16.7 percent)
Yep, it only took one week for Campana to graduate from the NL-only to the mixed league side. And why the heck not? Though 10 games, Campana is hitting .355 (11-for-31) with seven stolen bases and seven runs scored. Only eight players have more stolen bases and most of them have three times as many at-bats as Campana. I'm not suggesting you go out and pick him up in a shallow mixed league, as the 25-year-old is essentially a one-trick pony with absolutely no power, but he makes for a fine pickup in five-outfielder formats. Just keep in mind that Campana could sit against left-handed starters, so he's more useful in a daily league.
Will Middlebrooks 3B, Red Sox (Yahoo: 10 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
Boston, your savior has arrived. OK, not quite. Middlebrooks will only hold down third base until Kevin Youkilis is ready to return from a lower back strain. However, the 23-year-old makes for an interesting short-term option in deeper mixed formats. Middlebrooks went 2-for-3 with a double, a walk and a stolen base in his major league debut Wednesday against the A's and was hitting .333/.380/.677 with nine homers, 27 RBI and a 1.057 OPS over his first 100 plate appearances with Triple-A Pawtucket this season. I wouldn't drop anyone of great importance for him, as his first stint in the majors will likely be a brief one and his aggressive approach could lead to some growing pains, but nothing wrong with taking the proverbial flier.
Shopping at the five-and-dime:
(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)
Brian Fuentes RP, Athletics (Yahoo: 7 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent)
Grant Balfour deserves a bit of a leash with the closer role, but he has allowed five runs on five hits and two walks over his last two appearances and was pulled in favor of Jordan Norberto during a save situation Tuesday night against the Red Sox. Fuentes got the save -- the 200th of his career -- on Wednesday and would be the likely alternative if Balfour's struggles continue. Sure, Ryan Cook is beginning to look like a possible "closer of the future" and I would much prefer to see him get a shot, but Fuentes has that "proven closer" tag which most managers seem to dig. Getting a few saves under his belt could also enhance his trade value leading up to the deadline. Stash if you're in the mood to speculate.
Steve Cishek RP, Marlins (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 0.7 percent)
Heath Bell was terrible again Wednesday night against the Giants, allowing three straight hits to begin the bottom of the ninth before getting pulled from a save situation. He ended up getting charged with two runs and saw his ERA jump to 11.74 on the year. The 34-year-old right-hander has allowed 13 hits and eight walks over just 7 2/3 innings of work this season while his velocity and swinging-strike rate continue to decline. His three-year, $27 million deal provides some extra job security, but Marlins' manager Ozzie Guillen suggested after Wednesday's game that he Bell could be pulled from the closer role, at least on a temporary basis. Cishek is the strongest candidate to replace him, as he got the call in the ninth inning last night and has an 0.79 ERA and 12/4 K/BB ratio over 11 1/3 innings this season, but Guillen could also turn to Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb.
Suitable streamer:
Drew Smyly SP, Tigers (Yahoo: 18 percent owned, ESPN: 14.9 percent)
I had Smyly under my AL-only recommendations in the very first Waiver Wired of the season, but the rookie left-hander is now on the mixed league side after posting a 1.23 ERA and 22/8 K/BB ratio in 22 innings through his first four major league starts. His strand rate is a perfect 100 percent, so he can't be this fortunate forever, but he's racking up plenty of swings and misses and his control has been very solid since he walked three over four innings in his major league debut. It's tough to make a strong judgment with such a small sample, but give him a whirl Friday against a White Sox team that is batting just .199 with a .614 OPS against southpaws this season.
NL ONLY
Bobby Abreu OF, Free Agent (Yahoo: 2 percent owned, ESPN: 0.7 percent)
I'm cheating a little bit here, but this is assuming that Abreu ends up signing a contract with the Dodgers. The 38-year-old was released by the Angels last weekend after being buried on the bench and hitting just .208 over his first 24 at-bats, but he will presumably share playing time with Juan Rivera in left field and function as a left-handed bat of the bench. Abreu is clearly on the decline and could be an adventure in the outfield, but he still had a .353 on-base percentage last year and swiped 21 bases in 26 attempts. He's a must-own in NL-only leagues as soon as he's in the player pool.
Patrick Corbin SP, Diamondbacks (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.6 percent)
Josh Collmenter was booted from the starting rotation over the weekend, so Corbin started in his place on Monday against the Marlins and allowed three runs over 5 2/3 innings while striking out six and walking three. Corbin, who was acquired from the Angels in the Dan Haren trade, has a 3.83 ERA over parts of four seasons in the minors, averaging 8.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. The 22-year-old left-hander doesn't have the upside of more exciting D-Backs' prospects like Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley or Tyler Skaggs, but he should at least hold down a rotation spot until Daniel Hudson returns from a right shoulder impingement.
Brian Bogusevic OF, Astros (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
There's not a lot to get excited about here, but Bogusevic could provide some sneaky value if he continues to get regular playing time. The 2005 first-round pick had a knack for getting on base in the minor leagues, something he has maintained with a 9.3 percent walk rate and a .340 on-base percentage over his first 302 plate appearances in the majors. And while he doesn't have the wheels of teammate Jordan Schafer, the 28-year-old outfielder had 20 or more stolen bases in each of the past three seasons in the minors. Just keep in mind that Travis Buck looms as a threat if he struggles.
Alex White SP, Rockies (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
Jhoulys Chacin was optioned to the minors on Wednesday after struggling to the tune of a 7.30 ERA over his first five starts and the early speculation is that White will get the call to replace him in the starting rotation. White, who came over from the Indians in the Ubaldo Jimenez deal last July, has a solid 2.92 ERA and 21/8 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings over his first five starts with Triple-A Colorado Springs this season. His command was shaky in his first taste of the majors last year, but he throws hard and keeps the ball on the ground. That's a potential recipe for success.
AL ONLY
Michael Taylor OF, Athletics (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
With Coco Crisp likely headed to the disabled list due to recurring issues with a sinus infection, Taylor is in line for a promotion and should at least see part-time duty in the A's outfield. The 26-year-old outfielder is off to a strong start with Triple-A Sacramento this season, batting .347 with two homers, 18 RBI, six stolen bases and a .938 OPS over 105 plate appearances. Taylor hasn't come close to reaching the lofty expectations attached to him during his days as a farmhand with the Phillies, but his modest power-speed combo is enough to make him interesting.
Jarrod Dyson OF, Royals (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
The Royals were originally hoping that Lorenzo Cain would be able to return from the disabled list last Friday, but his timetable has been pushed back a couple weeks after he experienced a setback during his rehab assignment. Mitch Maier continues to get looks in center field during his absence, but Dyson is the one you want from a fantasy perspective. The speedy 27-year-old has stolen 22 bases with the Royals over the past three seasons, despite appearing in just 50 games.
John Jaso C, Mariners (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Miguel Olivo is expected to miss an extended period of time with a strained right groin, which means that Jaso and Jesus Montero will split catching duties for now. Jaso has been limited to just 18 at-bats so far this season, but the expectation is that he should handle most of the catching duties against right-handed pitching, which at least plays to his strengths offensively. The 28-year-old backstop is coming off a horrible season, but he owns a 12 percent walk rate and .340 on-base percentage over 707 plate appearances in the big leagues.
Aaron Cook SP, Red Sox (Yahoo: N/A, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Cook had an out-clause in his contract on May 1, so the Red Sox will bring him up to the majors to prevent him from becoming a free agent. His first assignment will come Saturday against the Orioles, as he's set to fill in for Josh Beckett, who came down with lat soreness after he tied a career-high by throwing 126 pitches last Sunday against the White Sox. Cook has a 4.53 ERA in the majors, so let's not get carried away here, but the veteran sinkerballer was pitching well with Triple-A Pawtucket and has a career ground ball rate of 57.4 percent. Use him Saturday and see how things shake out.
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