Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (8) (AKA: The "Bob Horner" Tier.)
Kenley Jansen (first chair), Javy Guerra (second chair), Los Angeles Dodgers
Chris Sale (first chair), Addison Reed (second chair), Hector Santiago (third chair), Chicago White Sox
Steve Cishek (first chair), Edward Mujica (second chair), Heath Bell (third chair), Miami Marlins
Chris Perez (first chair), Vinnie Pestano (second chair), Cleveland Indians
Rafael Dolis (first chair), Carlos Marmol (second chair), Michael Bowden (third chair), Chicago Cubs
Scott Downs (first chair), Jordan Walden (second chair), Ernesto Frieri (third chair), Los Angeles Angels
Dale Thayer (first chair), Andrew Cashner (second chair), Luke Gregerson (third chair), San Diego Padres
Francisco Cordero (first chair), Casey Janssen (second chair), Jason Frasor (third chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Bob Horner hit four home runs, like the rest of these guys. He amassed six RBI, so he didn't even hit four solo jobs. And he did it in 1986, so it wasn't the height of the power boom. But Bob Horner hit his home runs in an 11-8 loss. He was the only one to lose his four-homer game. For that, Bob Horner, you get the final tier. Which is full of closers that may lose you some games, fittingly.
Well, Kenley Jansen was a favorite of ours from the beginning, and shame on us for beginning to believe in Guerra. I suspect Jansen will move quickly -- his strikeout rate is elite, and his control has been better this year -- but everybody has to start somewhere. And Guerra's control has not actually been his problem this year, it's been more about his batted ball luck, so he could end up back in the role. Congratulations to those that held on to Jansen. He's the better pitcher.
Chris Sale is the next guy to zoom up the rankings, but his first move back in the pen was to blow a save, so let's start him somewhere easy. Safe to say, this lefty is lights-out, and he's not returning to the rotation this year, so he's going to be a great closer if the tender elbow holds up. Sure, Addison Reed is great, but his long-term closer hopes just got dashed. There's always the trade market!
Next up on the list is Steve Cishek, who's a great pitcher, but has the misfortune of pitching in the same pen as a nigh-$30 million man. Cishek hits the trifecta -- many strikeouts, few walks, many ground balls -- and hasn't suffered any velocity loss, but if Heath Bell figures out his curveball again, then he'll be back in the role. Cishek is better than Edward Mujica, though, so let's put Cishek ahead.
Chris Perez blew the first save of his season today. Seems like he should have blown more. He's recovered some of his swinging strikes though (almost average!) and is showing the best control of his career (almost average!). He's getting a few ground balls too (almost average!). So maybe he'll move up in the rankings next week.
Carlos Marmol has no idea where the ball is going, so he's been demoted. His manager says there's no guarantee he'll get the job back, even. Rafael Dolis is the guy now, but he has no idea where the ball is going, and also doesn't get strikeouts. Ground balls only get you so far. James Russell has an idea where the ball is going, but has trouble against righties -- and the league is three-quarters right-handed. Kerry Wood is still Kerry Wood, and would make a fine closer, but he's only signed for one year and his manager has already ruled him out. What about dark horse Michael Bowden? He's got decent skills and is under control for a while. Think about it.
Supposedly it's still Scott Downs in Los Angeles of Anaheim once his knee is feeling better. But Downs is a lefty and managers prefer righties in the closer role. Jordan Walden has his jump step and no control, but his strikeout punch means he's still in the picture. Ernesto Frieri is a bit of a dark horse, since he's new to the picture, but he's probably the best option of the three. Consider picking him up if you have, say, Andrew Cashner on your team.
Because it looks like Dale Thayer (and his amazing mustache) is the guy in San Diego. Two straight days, Cashner has gotten the eighth and Thayer the ninth. Thayer hasn't traditionally struck anyone out, but he does have good control and gets grounders. And this year, he's altered his pitching mix -- tons of sliders -- so he's getting more swinging strikes. He could be fine for the month or so Street is out.
It's a scrum in Toronto. Casey Janssen should get the next save if Francisco Cordero has lost the job. Janssen has been used after Jason Frasor in most wins in the past week, and his peripherals are exciting even if his ERA is not. Sergio Santos just started to throw, though, so whoever does get the job might only do so for a couple weeks.
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Injured
Andrew Bailey, Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Nothing really new here for most guys. Drew Storen thinks he's ahead of schedule, but there's no news other than the fact that around the All-Star break is the plan. Sergio Santos got cleared to throw and is playing catch. He might be two weeks away from a rehab assignment, but that assignment should be short if he's feeling good. Huston Street says his timetable isn't long, but he can't tell you if it's going to be two weeks or a month.
The Deposed
Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
These guys aren't here permanently. Well, Hector Santiago might be. Chris Sale is in the pen for his elbow, so he won't go back to the rotation. And he's a better pitcher (and lefty) than Santiago or Matt Thornton. Let's just say they are listed in here in the order of their likelihood of returning to the role.
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The Steals Department
Depends on how desperate you are, but a mainstay of the steals section -- Juan Pierre -- is almost definitely on your wire. He's not starting every day, but even on days he doesn't start, he's still able to steal bases. He's done it twice this year. And as a lefty, he's got the hefty part of the platoon. Go old school?
Deep leaguers, look to Kansas City! Johnny Giavotella has been called up and the word is that the team is looking into trading Chris Getz (who will be quite the 'get' for his new team, amiright). Johnny G doesn't have great power or speed, so he's not a great option in most leagues, but deeper leagues will like his decent batting average, just-under-league-average owe, and double-digit steals from here on out. He could manage .280 5/10 pretty easily, and the job is supposedly his. A bonanza! Of course, if you really want steals, you should check if Lorenzo Cain replacement Jarrod Dyson is still out there for you. Dyson's got no power whatsoever, and a below-average walk rate, but this year he's finally making contact. He could hit .260 or so with eight-to-ten steals a month while Cain is out.
It's Josh Hamilton's world and we're just happy to be a part of it.
The Rangers' slugger popped four home runs last night in an awesome display of power and discipline. That would make five in two games, too. It was enough to make you shake your head and wonder if you just saw something that hadn't been done before.
Except Hamilton was the 16th player to hit four home runs in one game. 16th! No player has hit five in a game, but 15 others hit four. We could fit three four-home-run players into each of our tiers! It's almost pedestrian.
Of course it's not. And in Hamilton's honor, we'll name the tiers after members of the four-home-run club. The more impressive, the higher the tier. Here's looking at you, kid.
Tier 1: Elite (3) (AKA: The "Mark Whiten" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Mark Whiten might be the standard in single-game power production. He hit four home runs -- like the rest of this crew -- but amassed 12 RBI in a 15-2 win in 1993. That's the most RBI, by three, over the next-most in the group. And we all remember him for it, too. Of course, we could have named this tier after Lou Gehrig, who was the first to manage the feat (back in 1932), but he's known for so many other things.
We'll all remember Mariano Rivera's dominance, but hopefully he'll be back to remind us for another year, as he proclaimed. In the meantime, we're left looking at this young trio, wondering if any of them can manage the longevity it takes to be a legend, yet knowing that none of them is Mo.
We'll move Craig Kimbrel ahead of Jonathan Papelbon this week, but it's not because of Jordany Valdespin's walkoff home run. And it's not to shmear Paps' name. No we move him back in the rankings because he's showing the worst fastball velocity of his career and is using the pitch less than ever. Kimbrel, on the other hand, still has the same velocity, the same pitches, the same gaudy strikeout rate, and the same wonky control as ever. It's a bit of a high-wire act, but it's exciting. Ditto John Axford, whose ERA would look like Kimbrel's if it wasn't for atrocious luck on batted balls.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Josh Hamilton" Tier.)
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Josh Hamilton went 5-5 (only four people managed that or better) and amassed 8 RBI (once again a feat that four managed). Put those two together, and only Mike Schmidt (5-for-6 with 8 RBI in 1976) and Gil Hodges (5-for-6 with 9 RBI in 1950) were his equal. That sounds about right for this tier.
On talent and talent, alone, J.J. Putz and Jason Motte belong in the elite tier. They are not in the elite tier, for separate reasons. Putz has averaged only 47 innings per season for the past four years, and his owners have to have Bryan Shaw on auto-dial in order to feel secure. Motte, on the other hand, is the youth to Putz' age. He's got 17 career saves to his name. It may not require a special mindset to become a closer -- more likely, it requires skills -- but it does require a great combo of longevity, health, and leash to stay elite. If Axford and Kimbrel continue to walk the ballpark, however, we could see change this year.
Joel Hanrahan blew a save Tuesday night. Strangely enough, it was by way of home run and not by way of walk. Because most of this year, the Hammer has been walking too many guys (without the elite strikeout rate of a Kimbrel or Axford), and the home run has only been an occasional problem. He's still showing 96 MPH gas, hasn't changed his pitching mix, and was fresh off a two-year run with great control. He's safe.
Sean Marshall has impeccable peripherals. He has a strikeout rate over 12, a walk rate under three, and is getting over 70% of his contact on the ground. He'll avoid the big home run, and he won't walk his team out of the game. Right now, he's got some bad luck on batted balls going on. Once that corrects, we have another guy who could join the elite by the end of the year… even with a 90 MPH heater.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Carlos Delgado" Tier.)
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
David Robertson, New York Yankees
Delgado del got a lot of those balls in 2003, when he muscled in six RBI in a 10-8 win. His team needed every run in one of the closest matchups that included a four-homer dude. Remember how good Carlos Delgado once was?
Remember how good Jose Valverde once was? His last year in Arizona, he almost struck out a dozen batters per nine, showed average control, and kept the ball on the ground almost at an average rate. That was the last year he was really a candidate for the elite, and it was also his first year as a full-year closer. Since, he's lost strikeouts and swinging strikes every year, and is proving this year that his control problems never went away. Now his swinging strike rate is below average for a late-game reliever, his strikeout rate is as well, his walk rate is terrible (even for him) and he's got the same old average ground ball rate. He deserved to drop, even before that blown save last week.
Brandon League slips behind fellow ground baller Jim Johnson because he's walking too many batters this year. He only walked ten all year last year and he's already got six in the first month. He doesn't strike enough guys out to do that.
Newcomer David Robertson follows in Santiago Casilla's footsteps as he leapfrogs into this tier from nowhere. Robertson is showing the best control of his career this season, and to pair that with his outstanding strikeout punch gives him a heck of a lot of upside. He only got his first save Monday night, but it will be the first of many. Don't bother with Rafael Soriano unless Robertson gets hurt. You could say the same for Casilla, but you have to walk back the strikeout rate. Then again, he has the swinging strike rate of a guy that should get more punchouts. Expect more of those, and ground balls. And saves, even if Javier Lopez will steal the occasional matchup save.
Tier 4: Question marks (8) (AKA: The "Mike Cameron" Tier.)
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Dude. Mike Cameron hit four home runs… with four RBI. That's right, they were all solo home runs. In a 15-2 blowout in 2002. Somehow, that's not quite the awesome as some of the other performances. And all of these guys are unquestioned closers for their teams right now, but they just aren't quite as awesome as the other closers.
Even Jonathan Broxton, for example. His velocity is back, but his swinging strike rate is still down. He hasn't blown a save in a while, but seven strikeouts in almost eleven innings is not great. Fernando Rodney has been great -- and his new spot on the rubber might be the reason for his newfound control -- but there's always the threat that he reverts to the Rodney of old, or Kyle Farnsworth gets healthy someday.
There really is little to dislike about Brett Myers, but his team would move him for a prospect at the drop of a dime. And he's probably not going to close at his next destination. Grant Balfour -- despite blowing two saves as the calendar turned -- has the peripherals to be a decent closer, but once he gets it together, he could get the Myers treatment. Henry Rodriguez is the most exciting of the three, but he has a terrible walk rate, and it led to the second blown save of the season for him Tuesday night. Plus, Drew Storen.
Alfredo Aceves gets his own paragraph. He's now thrown 8 2/3 innings of scoreless ball with 13 strikeouts against two walks over that stretch. That's pretty impressive for a guy that looked like a miscast swingman trying to close earlier in the year. He now has the best strikeout rate of his career going, and the swinging strike rate to support it. Then again, he went multiple innings in both of his last appearances, and that sorta looks like his old usage. He's not anything to bank on, but you might as well hold onto him now. Andrew Bailey will be gone a while. Mark Melancon is dealing -- but he's in the Minor Leagues.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (8) (AKA: The "Bob Horner" Tier.)
Kenley Jansen (first chair), Javy Guerra (second chair), Los Angeles Dodgers
Chris Sale (first chair), Addison Reed (second chair), Hector Santiago (third chair), Chicago White Sox
Steve Cishek (first chair), Edward Mujica (second chair), Heath Bell (third chair), Miami Marlins
Chris Perez (first chair), Vinnie Pestano (second chair), Cleveland Indians
Rafael Dolis (first chair), Carlos Marmol (second chair), Michael Bowden (third chair), Chicago Cubs
Scott Downs (first chair), Jordan Walden (second chair), Ernesto Frieri (third chair), Los Angeles Angels
Dale Thayer (first chair), Andrew Cashner (second chair), Luke Gregerson (third chair), San Diego Padres
Francisco Cordero (first chair), Casey Janssen (second chair), Jason Frasor (third chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Bob Horner hit four home runs, like the rest of these guys. He amassed six RBI, so he didn't even hit four solo jobs. And he did it in 1986, so it wasn't the height of the power boom. But Bob Horner hit his home runs in an 11-8 loss. He was the only one to lose his four-homer game. For that, Bob Horner, you get the final tier. Which is full of closers that may lose you some games, fittingly.
Well, Kenley Jansen was a favorite of ours from the beginning, and shame on us for beginning to believe in Guerra. I suspect Jansen will move quickly -- his strikeout rate is elite, and his control has been better this year -- but everybody has to start somewhere. And Guerra's control has not actually been his problem this year, it's been more about his batted ball luck, so he could end up back in the role. Congratulations to those that held on to Jansen. He's the better pitcher.
Chris Sale is the next guy to zoom up the rankings, but his first move back in the pen was to blow a save, so let's start him somewhere easy. Safe to say, this lefty is lights-out, and he's not returning to the rotation this year, so he's going to be a great closer if the tender elbow holds up. Sure, Addison Reed is great, but his long-term closer hopes just got dashed. There's always the trade market!
Next up on the list is Steve Cishek, who's a great pitcher, but has the misfortune of pitching in the same pen as a nigh-$30 million man. Cishek hits the trifecta -- many strikeouts, few walks, many ground balls -- and hasn't suffered any velocity loss, but if Heath Bell figures out his curveball again, then he'll be back in the role. Cishek is better than Edward Mujica, though, so let's put Cishek ahead.
Chris Perez blew the first save of his season today. Seems like he should have blown more. He's recovered some of his swinging strikes though (almost average!) and is showing the best control of his career (almost average!). He's getting a few ground balls too (almost average!). So maybe he'll move up in the rankings next week.
Carlos Marmol has no idea where the ball is going, so he's been demoted. His manager says there's no guarantee he'll get the job back, even. Rafael Dolis is the guy now, but he has no idea where the ball is going, and also doesn't get strikeouts. Ground balls only get you so far. James Russell has an idea where the ball is going, but has trouble against righties -- and the league is three-quarters right-handed. Kerry Wood is still Kerry Wood, and would make a fine closer, but he's only signed for one year and his manager has already ruled him out. What about dark horse Michael Bowden? He's got decent skills and is under control for a while. Think about it.
Supposedly it's still Scott Downs in Los Angeles of Anaheim once his knee is feeling better. But Downs is a lefty and managers prefer righties in the closer role. Jordan Walden has his jump step and no control, but his strikeout punch means he's still in the picture. Ernesto Frieri is a bit of a dark horse, since he's new to the picture, but he's probably the best option of the three. Consider picking him up if you have, say, Andrew Cashner on your team.
Because it looks like Dale Thayer (and his amazing mustache) is the guy in San Diego. Two straight days, Cashner has gotten the eighth and Thayer the ninth. Thayer hasn't traditionally struck anyone out, but he does have good control and gets grounders. And this year, he's altered his pitching mix -- tons of sliders -- so he's getting more swinging strikes. He could be fine for the month or so Street is out.
It's a scrum in Toronto. Casey Janssen should get the next save if Francisco Cordero has lost the job. Janssen has been used after Jason Frasor in most wins in the past week, and his peripherals are exciting even if his ERA is not. Sergio Santos just started to throw, though, so whoever does get the job might only do so for a couple weeks.
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Injured
Andrew Bailey, Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth, Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Nothing really new here for most guys. Drew Storen thinks he's ahead of schedule, but there's no news other than the fact that around the All-Star break is the plan. Sergio Santos got cleared to throw and is playing catch. He might be two weeks away from a rehab assignment, but that assignment should be short if he's feeling good. Huston Street says his timetable isn't long, but he can't tell you if it's going to be two weeks or a month.
The Deposed
Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
These guys aren't here permanently. Well, Hector Santiago might be. Chris Sale is in the pen for his elbow, so he won't go back to the rotation. And he's a better pitcher (and lefty) than Santiago or Matt Thornton. Let's just say they are listed in here in the order of their likelihood of returning to the role.
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The Steals Department
Depends on how desperate you are, but a mainstay of the steals section -- Juan Pierre -- is almost definitely on your wire. He's not starting every day, but even on days he doesn't start, he's still able to steal bases. He's done it twice this year. And as a lefty, he's got the hefty part of the platoon. Go old school?
Deep leaguers, look to Kansas City! Johnny Giavotella has been called up and the word is that the team is looking into trading Chris Getz (who will be quite the 'get' for his new team, amiright). Johnny G doesn't have great power or speed, so he's not a great option in most leagues, but deeper leagues will like his decent batting average, just-under-league-average owe, and double-digit steals from here on out. He could manage .280 5/10 pretty easily, and the job is supposedly his. A bonanza! Of course, if you really want steals, you should check if Lorenzo Cain replacement Jarrod Dyson is still out there for you. Dyson's got no power whatsoever, and a below-average walk rate, but this year he's finally making contact. He could hit .260 or so with eight-to-ten steals a month while Cain is out.