How about this for a crazy closer year? 62 relievers already have a save. At least ten teams have already made a change at the position due to injury or poor play. Nightly, there's something happening in a bullpen somewhere that will make the news.
Guess what. It's the same every year.
At least a third of all closers lose their job in any given year, so we're right there. 84 relievers managed a save last year, and you have to figure that many of the pitchers that will earn saves going forward will be the same that have earned saves so far (even if the distribution of those saves is altered). And every year, RotoWorld brings you up-to-date analysis about bullpen moves for just this reason.
With Mariano Rivera going down this year, it's never been more clear. Closers are a volatile group of pitchers. They owe all of their value to their specific role, which is liable to change at the drop of a hat. While position players and starters are given more playing time, which helps them display their true talent, relievers are judged on the tiniest of sample sizes.
All of this is to say that the closer is devalued compared to other players, even starters. For the few of you that have extra closers and are wondering what kind of return you might get, we'll name the tiers something useful for you. Each tier name represents the quality of arm that you might be able to score for your closer right now.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Tommy Hanson" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Tommy Hanson's walk rate is up, and his velocity is down. His injury history and possible tendency to wear down as the season progresses are risk factors even if you like his arsenal. That said, he'd be a pretty good get for one of these closers -- even with a reduced projection, he's likely to pitch more than twice the innings of your reliever. And he'll win some games even if he doesn't save any.
In his last ten-plus innings, Motte has actually blown two saves. But he also has ten strikeouts against one walk, and has given up seven hits. He even won the games he blew because he didn't blow up and he's got a good team behind him. He's got leash, gas and control. He's elite. Even if nobody on this list is elite like Mariano Rivera was once elite, he's elite.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Matt Moore or Chris Sale" Tier.)
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Matt Moore has never had a walks problem. Matt Moore only has to better his walk rate to be the excellent pitcher he can be. Watch a start of his, and you know he has excellent stuff and is worth a buy-low. Chris Sale has nice numbers, and the stuff to back it up. On the other hand, he's fresh off an MRI and has been the subject of injury speculation since he entered the league, or since someone spotted the fact that he only weighed about a buck fifty. Now there's added research that shows that the sidearm arm slot might lead to more stress on the elbow. And, as a converted reliever, Sale probably has an innings limit. Still, there's no way he doesn't manage 150 innings, which is about twice your typical reliever.
J.J. Putz blew a save, but more amazing was the fact that he walked two batters Tuesday night. He had walked one all year. He didn't walk two in a game all last year. You have to go back to April 28 of 2010 to find a game where he walked two batters. Amazing.
Joel Hanrahan moves down because he's still walking guys, and Rafael Betancourt drops a few spots for the two blown games in his last three decisions, but the story here in this tier is Santiago Casilla. Casilla is showing that he's got a stranglehold on the job in San Francisco, by putting up the best walk and ground-ball rates of his career. He's still pumping 94+ MPH gas, and even if he doesn't have the strikeout rate of an elite closer, eight strikeouts per nine is no Jim Johnson situation. The artist formerly known as Jairo Garcia is painting in San Francisco.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Ervin Santana" Tier.)
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Ervin Santana is a bit of a Steady Eddy. Well, last year he got a little lucky on batted balls and the overall line looked a little better than his stuff warrants. But he's mostly a fastball/slider guy and he has some platoon issues because of it. This year, he's giving up too many homers than he 'should,' but he's also getting lucky on batted balls. As those two numbers regress, he'll probably be about the same going forward. That isn't sexy, but it's useful. This might be the shocker of the group -- there are plenty of you that wouldn't trade Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen for Ervin Santana -- but even if you were guaranteed that those relievers would keep their jobs, their overall value could be very similar.
Kenley Jansen has turned into a steady eddy. He'd be the hardest guy to trade away in this tier, given his extreme strikeout punch -- 36 in 22 and 2/3 innings. He's Kimbrel-esque, but the amazing thing is that he's really gotten better at that whole control thing this year. He hasn't walked a guy in five appearances and has only walked eight all year. That's a big turnaround that might be worth being suspicious of, but progress might come quickly -- Jansen was a catcher not too long ago. Hold tight to your new closer with elite upside.
Rafael Soriano is not a steady eddy. He's been all over the place. But his closer face is legendary and David Robertson won't be ready to come off the DL when he's eligible. Add in the fact that Soriano has now converted three saves in a row with no trouble, he might just be the closer all year. It's worth noting that he's gone five straight without a walk, too.
Fernando Rodney has done nothing but save games and liven up the clubhouse. His ERA is under one and his WHIP is under one-half, and he's never shown control like this. Now we have some more information on why this is happening. For one, he's getting more called strikes on non-strikes than any other reliever in the business. And that might be related to the fact that he's got a catcher that has proven that he's the best at framing pitches in the league. When you fall back on his career control, you still have to admit there's risk. But all this information makes him very interesting.
Speaking of Aroldis Chapman, he's number one with a bullet shot out of the cannon that is his left arm. But not quite. He's still uncomfortable pitching in back-to-backs, and hasn't done it much over his career. That led to a Sean Marshall save… even after Chapman was declared closer. So keep Sean Marshall around, he'll vulture some saves. And don't get too comfortable with a closer that has a career walk rate over five. Even when it looks so, so awesome right now.
Tier 4: Question marks (8) (AKA: The "Hiroki Kuroda" Tier.)
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Hiroki Kuroda is just a 37-year-old righty trying to make it in a hitter's park that loves lefty power. His velocity is down, his walks are up, his whiffs and strikeouts are down… what do you like again? Then again, if you are selling one of these closers, what are you hoping to get, really? Kuroda could improve his home-run luck -- he's giving up home runs on almost 20% of his fly balls, and that number is 10% across the league -- and could rack up some wins on that team. You might want to package your closer with another starter to get an improvement, actually.
Chris Perez! Yell at your fans some more! Even if it's their 'fault' you're finally throwing strikes, it's a good thing! Seriously, whatever got in his dander and made him get his swinging strike rate up (to average), his strikeout rate up (to average for a closer), and limit his walks (to average), it has to rate as a good thing for his owners. After years of declining peripherals (and velocity), his numbers look much much better this year (even though his velocity is down again). I doff my cap (and razor) to you, sir.
I still might rather have Addison Reed, as crazy as that will sound to some. Reed has a strikeout rate that's almost half-again better than Perez, and while his walk rate doesn't look great now, he's been elite in that category all of his career to date. He's the closer now, and he was groomed for this job all along. Once he puts some distance between him and his three-walk meltdown on May 13th, his overall numbers will look more excellent-er than those Perez puts up.
Brandon League is having some trouble. He's been rocked two consecutive times out there, and it's not like his entire year speaks well for him beyond that. He has one more strikeout than walk, and that's because he now has one of the worst walk rates of his career. His vaunted ground-ball rate has even disappeared. Now you're left with a closer that doesn't get strikeouts, doesn't limit the walks, and doesn't get ground balls any more. Go get Tom Wilhelmsen. League's a free agent after this year anyway.
Frank Francisco seems to have held on to his job through thin. Now he's thick with strikeouts and Jon Rauch is the one almost blowing games. Really, it was Bobby Parnell that was the real threat to the job, but the team seems fine with him where he is too. What if the newfound control dissipates, after all. Frankie Frank is walking too many people, but he's still got the strikeout stuff… and the job.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
How about this for a crazy closer year? 62 relievers already have a save. At least ten teams have already made a change at the position due to injury or poor play. Nightly, there's something happening in a bullpen somewhere that will make the news.
Guess what. It's the same every year.
At least a third of all closers lose their job in any given year, so we're right there. 84 relievers managed a save last year, and you have to figure that many of the pitchers that will earn saves going forward will be the same that have earned saves so far (even if the distribution of those saves is altered). And every year, RotoWorld brings you up-to-date analysis about bullpen moves for just this reason.
With Mariano Rivera going down this year, it's never been more clear. Closers are a volatile group of pitchers. They owe all of their value to their specific role, which is liable to change at the drop of a hat. While position players and starters are given more playing time, which helps them display their true talent, relievers are judged on the tiniest of sample sizes.
All of this is to say that the closer is devalued compared to other players, even starters. For the few of you that have extra closers and are wondering what kind of return you might get, we'll name the tiers something useful for you. Each tier name represents the quality of arm that you might be able to score for your closer right now.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Tommy Hanson" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Tommy Hanson's walk rate is up, and his velocity is down. His injury history and possible tendency to wear down as the season progresses are risk factors even if you like his arsenal. That said, he'd be a pretty good get for one of these closers -- even with a reduced projection, he's likely to pitch more than twice the innings of your reliever. And he'll win some games even if he doesn't save any.
In his last ten-plus innings, Motte has actually blown two saves. But he also has ten strikeouts against one walk, and has given up seven hits. He even won the games he blew because he didn't blow up and he's got a good team behind him. He's got leash, gas and control. He's elite. Even if nobody on this list is elite like Mariano Rivera was once elite, he's elite.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "Matt Moore or Chris Sale" Tier.)
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Matt Moore has never had a walks problem. Matt Moore only has to better his walk rate to be the excellent pitcher he can be. Watch a start of his, and you know he has excellent stuff and is worth a buy-low. Chris Sale has nice numbers, and the stuff to back it up. On the other hand, he's fresh off an MRI and has been the subject of injury speculation since he entered the league, or since someone spotted the fact that he only weighed about a buck fifty. Now there's added research that shows that the sidearm arm slot might lead to more stress on the elbow. And, as a converted reliever, Sale probably has an innings limit. Still, there's no way he doesn't manage 150 innings, which is about twice your typical reliever.
J.J. Putz blew a save, but more amazing was the fact that he walked two batters Tuesday night. He had walked one all year. He didn't walk two in a game all last year. You have to go back to April 28 of 2010 to find a game where he walked two batters. Amazing.
Joel Hanrahan moves down because he's still walking guys, and Rafael Betancourt drops a few spots for the two blown games in his last three decisions, but the story here in this tier is Santiago Casilla. Casilla is showing that he's got a stranglehold on the job in San Francisco, by putting up the best walk and ground-ball rates of his career. He's still pumping 94+ MPH gas, and even if he doesn't have the strikeout rate of an elite closer, eight strikeouts per nine is no Jim Johnson situation. The artist formerly known as Jairo Garcia is painting in San Francisco.
Tier 3: OK options (6) (AKA: The "Ervin Santana" Tier.)
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Ervin Santana is a bit of a Steady Eddy. Well, last year he got a little lucky on batted balls and the overall line looked a little better than his stuff warrants. But he's mostly a fastball/slider guy and he has some platoon issues because of it. This year, he's giving up too many homers than he 'should,' but he's also getting lucky on batted balls. As those two numbers regress, he'll probably be about the same going forward. That isn't sexy, but it's useful. This might be the shocker of the group -- there are plenty of you that wouldn't trade Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen for Ervin Santana -- but even if you were guaranteed that those relievers would keep their jobs, their overall value could be very similar.
Kenley Jansen has turned into a steady eddy. He'd be the hardest guy to trade away in this tier, given his extreme strikeout punch -- 36 in 22 and 2/3 innings. He's Kimbrel-esque, but the amazing thing is that he's really gotten better at that whole control thing this year. He hasn't walked a guy in five appearances and has only walked eight all year. That's a big turnaround that might be worth being suspicious of, but progress might come quickly -- Jansen was a catcher not too long ago. Hold tight to your new closer with elite upside.
Rafael Soriano is not a steady eddy. He's been all over the place. But his closer face is legendary and David Robertson won't be ready to come off the DL when he's eligible. Add in the fact that Soriano has now converted three saves in a row with no trouble, he might just be the closer all year. It's worth noting that he's gone five straight without a walk, too.
Fernando Rodney has done nothing but save games and liven up the clubhouse. His ERA is under one and his WHIP is under one-half, and he's never shown control like this. Now we have some more information on why this is happening. For one, he's getting more called strikes on non-strikes than any other reliever in the business. And that might be related to the fact that he's got a catcher that has proven that he's the best at framing pitches in the league. When you fall back on his career control, you still have to admit there's risk. But all this information makes him very interesting.
Speaking of Aroldis Chapman, he's number one with a bullet shot out of the cannon that is his left arm. But not quite. He's still uncomfortable pitching in back-to-backs, and hasn't done it much over his career. That led to a Sean Marshall save… even after Chapman was declared closer. So keep Sean Marshall around, he'll vulture some saves. And don't get too comfortable with a closer that has a career walk rate over five. Even when it looks so, so awesome right now.
Tier 4: Question marks (8) (AKA: The "Hiroki Kuroda" Tier.)
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Brett Myers, Houston Astros
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Hiroki Kuroda is just a 37-year-old righty trying to make it in a hitter's park that loves lefty power. His velocity is down, his walks are up, his whiffs and strikeouts are down… what do you like again? Then again, if you are selling one of these closers, what are you hoping to get, really? Kuroda could improve his home-run luck -- he's giving up home runs on almost 20% of his fly balls, and that number is 10% across the league -- and could rack up some wins on that team. You might want to package your closer with another starter to get an improvement, actually.
Chris Perez! Yell at your fans some more! Even if it's their 'fault' you're finally throwing strikes, it's a good thing! Seriously, whatever got in his dander and made him get his swinging strike rate up (to average), his strikeout rate up (to average for a closer), and limit his walks (to average), it has to rate as a good thing for his owners. After years of declining peripherals (and velocity), his numbers look much much better this year (even though his velocity is down again). I doff my cap (and razor) to you, sir.
I still might rather have Addison Reed, as crazy as that will sound to some. Reed has a strikeout rate that's almost half-again better than Perez, and while his walk rate doesn't look great now, he's been elite in that category all of his career to date. He's the closer now, and he was groomed for this job all along. Once he puts some distance between him and his three-walk meltdown on May 13th, his overall numbers will look more excellent-er than those Perez puts up.
Brandon League is having some trouble. He's been rocked two consecutive times out there, and it's not like his entire year speaks well for him beyond that. He has one more strikeout than walk, and that's because he now has one of the worst walk rates of his career. His vaunted ground-ball rate has even disappeared. Now you're left with a closer that doesn't get strikeouts, doesn't limit the walks, and doesn't get ground balls any more. Go get Tom Wilhelmsen. League's a free agent after this year anyway.
Frank Francisco seems to have held on to his job through thin. Now he's thick with strikeouts and Jon Rauch is the one almost blowing games. Really, it was Bobby Parnell that was the real threat to the job, but the team seems fine with him where he is too. What if the newfound control dissipates, after all. Frankie Frank is walking too many people, but he's still got the strikeout stuff… and the job.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (7) (AKA: The "Erik Bedard" Tier.)
Heath Bell (first chair), Steve Cishek (second chair), Edward Mujica (third chair), Miami Marlins
Brian Fuentes (first chair), Ryan Cook (second chair), Oakland Athletics
Scott Downs (first chair), Ernesto Frieri (second chair), Jordan Walden (third chair), Los Angeles Angels
Dale Thayer (first chair), Andrew Cashner (second chair), Luke Gregerson (third chair), San Diego Padres
Henry Rodriguez (first chair), Tyler Clippard (second chair), Sean Burnett (third chair), Washington Nationals
Casey Janssen (first chair), Francisco Cordero (second chair), Jason Frasor (third chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Rafael Dolis (first chair), James Russell (second chair), Michael Bowden (third chair), Chicago Cubs
What? You just got Erik Bedard off the waiver wire, and you just got Dale Thayer off the waiver wire. Makes sense to pair them then. Even though there aren't any arrows in this tier today, call it a respite from the storm. There will be movement soon, and you can get ahead of it with some shrewd moves.
You couldn't get much for Heath Bell in a trade, but maybe you could go get Bell for cheap if you believe in him. The velocity is back up to (mostly) his career level, but his walk rate is terrible and the curveball doesn't seem right. He's not getting whiffs. It just seems too risky to buy into.
Brian Fuentes is the nominal closer in Oakland, but he's a lefty. Grant Balfour is pitching the seventh innings now. Who's that lights-out setup man nobody's heard of? Ryan Cook. He came over from Arizona in the Trevor Cahill trade and has legitimate strikeout stuff. The walk rate has been the issue with him -- and at over four per nine now, it's not quite great -- but right now he's got a zero ERA thanks to those strikeouts and a lot of luck. He's already a holds superstar, he might start netting saves. After a week without arrows in the bottom tier, he could be part of the chaos next week.
When C.J. Wilson threw eight one-hit shutout innings Tuesday night, the Angels turned to Ernesto Frieri to lock down the game. It was a five-run lead, but it was also a big game, and it was also the ninth inning. Scott Downs is still a lefty (and managers don't love giving up the platoon advantage to 3/4 of the league in the ninth inning), and Jordan Walden still has his jump-step and control problems. Frieri is one of the better pickups if you're trolling for saves.
Andrew Cashner did get a save opportunity, finally, but then he blew it. He's throwing 99 MPH gas out there right now, and has a great strikeout rate and a good ground-ball rate. He just doesn't know where the plate is, and Dale Thayer -- who had an unimpressive resume going into this season -- is riding his slider and plus control into a safe position as the interim closer.
Henry Rodriguez throws darts against the side of the barn like he needs Lasik surgery. Sean Burnett is a lefty. Tyler Clippard wasn't supposed to be a closer. Now all of them are closers after Clippard got the last one and their manager admitted that it's a committee. Whatever, they're all just keeping the seat warm for Drew Storen, who's due back in about a month.
It says a lot about Rafael Dolis that he's behind a committee. But, yeah, he's pretty terrible. He's still got that ground-ball rate, sure, but he's also still got that bad control and absolute lack of strikeouts. Right now, he's getting lucky on batted balls. When that luck runs out, he'll be a high-fours ERA guy, and he probably won't be the closer. James Russell right now has even worse control -- but at least he has a career track record of better control. The bigger problem for him is that he's a lefty with a platoon split. Michael Bowden is not wowing anyone, and really doesn't have one elite skill, and anyway he's only pitching when the team is losing right now. It's a mess, and Carlos Marmol is still not totally out of the picture.
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Injured
Andrew Bailey (thumb), Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth (elbow), Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen (elbow), Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Huston Street (lat), San Diego Padres
Carlos Marmol (hamstring), Chicago Cubs
Andrew Bailey is going to start a throwing program sometime this week. The doctor said he made good progress and is ready. Drew Storen is still on track to return to his team around the All-Star break. Sergio Santos is throwing and wants to long-toss by the end of the week, and throw from a mound next week. Early June seems reasonable. Huston Street played catch with no side effects (pun intended), and he should be back by early June as well. Carlos Marmol is already headed on out on his rehab assignment. He's not the worst saves pickup if he's out there, given Rafael Dolis.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Heath Bell got up off this list. Carlos Marmol might, too. Strange to see such a (relatively) small list of deposed, but most in-flux bullpens are so in-flux that it's hard to count anyone out.
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The Steals Department
Ben Revere is back up with the Twins. Yes, he's a flawed player -- he's got no power and very little patience -- but he does have elite wheels. And the Twins do have a pretty bad outfield right now. Well, Josh Willingham is fine -- but due for an injury or two every year -- and Denard Span has some ability. But Darin Mastroianni, Erik Komatsu and Trevor Plouffe are not really starting-quality outfielders. Revere might be able to threaten league average production, and he's started every game since he was called up. He's got way more speed than a Jose Tabata or Michael Brantley, for example, so if you're looking for stolen bases, there are worse moves out there.
Like, for example, you could pick up Scott Podsednik. That would be a worse move if you had better options. But in deep leagues, Podsednik could still have 30-stolen-base wheels and the ability to put up fantasy-league-average batting average. Of course, he has no power and little patience, and his glove is now below-average (at best) in the corner outfield… and that's not really the profile you'd think the saber-savvy Red Sox would turn to for their outfield needs. And they might not -- on the day that Podsednik was called up, the Sawx put Adrian Gonzalez in right field. Carl Crawford is doing baseball activities, Jacoby Ellsbury is still trying to come back around the All-Star break, and the Sawx have like four no-names trying to fill left field and platoon with Ryan Sweeney in right. Marlon Byrd is the only every-day guy right now, and that's just sad. But, oh, yeah, Podsednik -- treat him like the dirty work you have to do just to scrape a few steals together, and no better.