Get Your Phil
Thursday, June 14, 2012
I'm preparing to move into a new place over the next week, which doesn't come recommended in the middle of the baseball season. But as long as we're on the subject of moving, I figured this would be an appropriate opportunity to take an early look at some players who could be suiting up elsewhere before the July 31 trade deadline.
23 teams were within seven games of first place in their respective divisions entering Thursday's action and the extra Wild Card in each league has widened the field even further, so we could have less sellers than ever before. However, there are some obvious ones. The rebuilding Cubs should be one of the most active teams, with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano among the likely candidates to be moved. The Padres will surely listen to offers for Carlos Quentin and Huston Street. And I fully expect the Twins to shop Matt Capps and the Astros to do the same with Brett Myers.
Many things can change between now and July 31, but the most interesting variable might be how the Phillies approach things. They enter play Thursday at 30-34, 9 1/2 games out of first place in the National League East and 4 1/2 games back in the Wild Card race. Chase Utley is currently on track to rejoin the Phillies in early July and Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay are projected to return during the second half of the season, but what if they continue to stumble? I'm not saying a trade will happen, but you can bet teams will call GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. about impending free agent Cole Hamels.
In addition to the obvious fantasy fallout of the trade deadline, we should soon see an influx of top prospects once teams feel that they are in the clear from Super Two implications. The next seven weeks will be a wild ride on the waiver wire, but it will also present plenty of opportunities for fantasy owners to remain competitive and climb in the standings.
MIXED LEAGUES
Phil Hughes SP, Yankees (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 19 percent)
Hughes has really turned things around over the past month, posting a 3.40 ERA over his last six starts. That number is actually a bit elevated by his seven-run clunker against the Angels on May 28, but his recent stretch of success is more impressive once you realize that he has allowed two earned runs or less in the other six. And while the 25-year-old right-hander has a mediocre 4.76 ERA through 12 starts overall this year, he owns an impressive 63/18 K/BB ratio across 68 innings. Of course, he has allowed at least one home run in each of his starts this season and his 50 percent fly ball rate suggests that little bugaboo isn't going away, but there's still a lot to like here. He makes for a fine staff anchor in most mixed leagues.
Trevor Plouffe 2B/3B/SS/OF, Twins (Yahoo: 33 percent owned, ESPN: 36 percent)
Wow, who saw this one coming? Plouffe had a lowly .135 batting average on the morning of May 19, but he's hitting .344 (22-for-64) with eight homers, five doubles, 15 RBI and 15 runs scored over his last 16 games. This includes four homers in his last five games and six this month. The 2004 first-round pick doesn't make contact often enough to hit for a high batting average over the long haul, but he has shown some pop in the minors and connected for eight homers in 81 games with the Twins last year. With his handy multi-position eligibility, he's a pretty useful plug-in option in deeper formats right now.
Russell Martin C, Yankees (Yahoo: 34 percent owned, ESPN: 15.4 percent)
Martin enjoyed his success in bunches last year and we could be in the middle of one of those stretches right now. After hitting just .187 with four homers in 42 games through the end of May, the 29-year-old backstop is hitting .265 (9-for-35) with four homers, two doubles, and eight RBI through the first 11 games in June. It's suddenly not crazy to think he'll match the 18 homers he had last season. And while he remains a batting average risk, he's at least drawing enough walks to keep his OPS afloat. Martin remains relevant in deeper mixed leagues and two-catcher formats.
Michael Saunders OF, Mariners (Yahoo: 27 percent owned, ESPN: 46.3 percent)
Doing his best to burst the post-hype bubble, Saunders is hitting .282/.350/.474 with seven homers, 22 RBI, 30 runs scored, 10 stolen bases and an .824 OPS through 61 games this year. Perhaps his success has been overlooked nationally because he plays on the West Coast, but that's top-30 outfielder production. Franklin Gutierrez was activated from the disabled list on Wednesday, but Saunders should continue to get regular playing time in left field moving forward. I don't expect him to maintain a high batting average, as he strikes out too much and his .356 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is likely to regress a bit, but his speed-power combo is worth a flier in most formats at this point.
Jon Niese SP, Mets (Yahoo: 33 percent owned, ESPN: 21.6 percent)
Remember how I wrote two months ago that Niese had the potential for a breakout season? Perhaps he's on his way. Through his first 12 starts, the 25-year-old southpaw has a solid 3.69 ERA and 67/27 K/BB ratio across 68 1/3 innings. His strand rate and BABIP (batting average on balls in play) indicate that there's some luck involved, but I don't expect him to continue giving up 1.32 HR/9, either. And while he's averaging 3.56 BB/9, at least he has maintained a healthy ground ball rate of 53.6 percent. He should be owned in most mixed leagues.
Gaby Sanchez 1B, Marlins (Yahoo: 17 percent owned, ESPN: 21.6 percent)
Sanchez was demoted to Triple-A New Orleans last month after hitting just .197 with one homer and a .539 OPS over 36 games. Getting the opportunity to hit in the Pacific Coast League likely helped, but he earned his way back to the majors last week after batting .310 (18-for-58) with three homers, 10 RBI and a .976 OPS in 19 games with the Zephyrs. I've never been a big fan of Sanchez, as he has a mediocre .716 career OPS against right-handed pitching, but he was right in the 20-homer, 80-RBI range in 2010 and 2011. He's relevant in deeper mixed leagues, especially where he can be plugged in at a corner infielder (CI) spot.
Ben Revere OF, Twins (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 15.2 percent)
Revere remains red-hot. He went 2-for-5 with an RBI single and two runs scored in Wednesday's loss to the Phillies and is hitting a cool .464 (13-for-28) over his last six games, pulling his season batting average up from .301 to .345 in the process. The speedy 24-year-old also has nine stolen bases, despite playing in just 28 games at the major league level this year. Sure, it would be nice if he drew a few more walks, but his elite contact rate at least gives him a chance to get on base. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire would be silly to sit him right now, so he makes for a fine option for anyone looking to catch up in the stolen base department.
Ryan Cook RP, Athletics (Yahoo: 30 percent owned, ESPN: 14.3 percent)
The latest turn in the MLB closer carousel, Cook has notched a pair of saves for the Athletics this week. Acquired from the Diamondbacks over the winter in the Trevor Cahill deal, the 24-year-old right-hander has a 0.64 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 28 innings this season. Of course, he has also walked 16 batters and his command was an issue at times in the minors, so there figures to be some bumps in the road. Still, A's manager Bob Melvin seems to favor him over Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour and Sean Doolittle in his new closer-by-committee. And that's good enough for him to be owned in most formats.
Cody Ross OF, Red Sox (Yahoo: 22 percent owned, ESPN: 18.7 percent)
Ross was owned in the great majority of mixed leagues prior to hitting the disabled list last month with a fractured navicular bone in his left foot. While initial word was that he would miss 6-8 weeks, he's now slated to begin a rehab assignment Friday and could rejoin the Red Sox as soon as next Tuesday. We'll likely see some shuffling in the outfield until Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford return, but Ross should be in the lineup on most days if he's healthy. His pop makes him worth a DL-stash outside of shallow leagues.
Ike Davis 1B, Mets (Yahoo: 35 percent owned, ESPN: 22.3 percent)
This time last week I was thinking that Davis could soon be headed for a demotion to Triple-A Buffalo. Now? Well, I'm increasingly optimistic that he's finally coming out of his season-long funk. Hey, I'm fickle like that. The 25-year-old first baseman hit his first home run since May 9 on Tuesday night and has hit safely in each of his last four games. With seven walks in his last seven games, it's clear he's just seeing the ball better these days. Keep in mind that he had just six walks over his previous 22 games combined. Things are looking up, at the very least.
Gavin Floyd SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 45.1 percent)
I don't blame you if you're surprised to see Floyd here. After all, he has been tattooed for 30 runs on 41 hits (including 10 homers) in 25 2/3 innings over his last five starts, resulting in a 10.52 ERA. However, I see some reason for optimism in his overall numbers. He's throwing just as hard as ever, limiting walks like usual and has actually seen his strikeout and swinging strike rates go up. Would I start him Thursday night against the Cardinals? No, almost certainly not. But he's certainly worth a stash in most formats in hopes that he turns things around.
Shopping at the five-and-dime:
(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)
Alex Presley OF, Pirates (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 2.4 percent)
I liked Presley as a sleeper coming into the season, but he was demoted by the Pirates last month after batting just .220 with a .551 OPS over his first 220 plate appearances. However, he earned his way back to the majors last week following a strong showing with Triple-A Indianapolis. The 26-year-old outfielder is hitting .305 (11-for-36) with three doubles, one triple, one home run, two RBI, three stolen bases and seven runs scored in eight games since his return and has reclaimed the leadoff spot in recent days. Worth a shot in deeper leagues.
Norichika Aoki OF, Brewers (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 5.1 percent)
For someone who was expected to function as a fifth outfielder coming into the season, Aoki has been quite a find for the Brewers in his first year stateside. The 30-year-old went 2-for-5 with a run scored in Wednesday's loss to the Royals and is now hitting .299/.364/.474 with three homers, five stolen bases and an .839 OPS through 54 games this season. His strong play (and Corey Hart's move to first base) has earned him regular playing time in right field and a promotion to the leadoff spot in the Brewers' lineup. I'd be surprised if he reached double-digit homers, even after his two-homer game last week, but he should be able to maintain a solid batting average while helping with stolen bases and runs scored. There's definite value here in deeper mixed leagues and five-outfielder formats.
I'm preparing to move into a new place over the next week, which doesn't come recommended in the middle of the baseball season. But as long as we're on the subject of moving, I figured this would be an appropriate opportunity to take an early look at some players who could be suiting up elsewhere before the July 31 trade deadline.
23 teams were within seven games of first place in their respective divisions entering Thursday's action and the extra Wild Card in each league has widened the field even further, so we could have less sellers than ever before. However, there are some obvious ones. The rebuilding Cubs should be one of the most active teams, with Ryan Dempster, Matt Garza and Alfonso Soriano among the likely candidates to be moved. The Padres will surely listen to offers for Carlos Quentin and Huston Street. And I fully expect the Twins to shop Matt Capps and the Astros to do the same with Brett Myers.
Many things can change between now and July 31, but the most interesting variable might be how the Phillies approach things. They enter play Thursday at 30-34, 9 1/2 games out of first place in the National League East and 4 1/2 games back in the Wild Card race. Chase Utley is currently on track to rejoin the Phillies in early July and Ryan Howard and Roy Halladay are projected to return during the second half of the season, but what if they continue to stumble? I'm not saying a trade will happen, but you can bet teams will call GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. about impending free agent Cole Hamels.
In addition to the obvious fantasy fallout of the trade deadline, we should soon see an influx of top prospects once teams feel that they are in the clear from Super Two implications. The next seven weeks will be a wild ride on the waiver wire, but it will also present plenty of opportunities for fantasy owners to remain competitive and climb in the standings.
MIXED LEAGUES
Phil Hughes SP, Yankees (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 19 percent)
Hughes has really turned things around over the past month, posting a 3.40 ERA over his last six starts. That number is actually a bit elevated by his seven-run clunker against the Angels on May 28, but his recent stretch of success is more impressive once you realize that he has allowed two earned runs or less in the other six. And while the 25-year-old right-hander has a mediocre 4.76 ERA through 12 starts overall this year, he owns an impressive 63/18 K/BB ratio across 68 innings. Of course, he has allowed at least one home run in each of his starts this season and his 50 percent fly ball rate suggests that little bugaboo isn't going away, but there's still a lot to like here. He makes for a fine staff anchor in most mixed leagues.
Trevor Plouffe 2B/3B/SS/OF, Twins (Yahoo: 33 percent owned, ESPN: 36 percent)
Wow, who saw this one coming? Plouffe had a lowly .135 batting average on the morning of May 19, but he's hitting .344 (22-for-64) with eight homers, five doubles, 15 RBI and 15 runs scored over his last 16 games. This includes four homers in his last five games and six this month. The 2004 first-round pick doesn't make contact often enough to hit for a high batting average over the long haul, but he has shown some pop in the minors and connected for eight homers in 81 games with the Twins last year. With his handy multi-position eligibility, he's a pretty useful plug-in option in deeper formats right now.
Russell Martin C, Yankees (Yahoo: 34 percent owned, ESPN: 15.4 percent)
Martin enjoyed his success in bunches last year and we could be in the middle of one of those stretches right now. After hitting just .187 with four homers in 42 games through the end of May, the 29-year-old backstop is hitting .265 (9-for-35) with four homers, two doubles, and eight RBI through the first 11 games in June. It's suddenly not crazy to think he'll match the 18 homers he had last season. And while he remains a batting average risk, he's at least drawing enough walks to keep his OPS afloat. Martin remains relevant in deeper mixed leagues and two-catcher formats.
Michael Saunders OF, Mariners (Yahoo: 27 percent owned, ESPN: 46.3 percent)
Doing his best to burst the post-hype bubble, Saunders is hitting .282/.350/.474 with seven homers, 22 RBI, 30 runs scored, 10 stolen bases and an .824 OPS through 61 games this year. Perhaps his success has been overlooked nationally because he plays on the West Coast, but that's top-30 outfielder production. Franklin Gutierrez was activated from the disabled list on Wednesday, but Saunders should continue to get regular playing time in left field moving forward. I don't expect him to maintain a high batting average, as he strikes out too much and his .356 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is likely to regress a bit, but his speed-power combo is worth a flier in most formats at this point.
Jon Niese SP, Mets (Yahoo: 33 percent owned, ESPN: 21.6 percent)
Remember how I wrote two months ago that Niese had the potential for a breakout season? Perhaps he's on his way. Through his first 12 starts, the 25-year-old southpaw has a solid 3.69 ERA and 67/27 K/BB ratio across 68 1/3 innings. His strand rate and BABIP (batting average on balls in play) indicate that there's some luck involved, but I don't expect him to continue giving up 1.32 HR/9, either. And while he's averaging 3.56 BB/9, at least he has maintained a healthy ground ball rate of 53.6 percent. He should be owned in most mixed leagues.
Gaby Sanchez 1B, Marlins (Yahoo: 17 percent owned, ESPN: 21.6 percent)
Sanchez was demoted to Triple-A New Orleans last month after hitting just .197 with one homer and a .539 OPS over 36 games. Getting the opportunity to hit in the Pacific Coast League likely helped, but he earned his way back to the majors last week after batting .310 (18-for-58) with three homers, 10 RBI and a .976 OPS in 19 games with the Zephyrs. I've never been a big fan of Sanchez, as he has a mediocre .716 career OPS against right-handed pitching, but he was right in the 20-homer, 80-RBI range in 2010 and 2011. He's relevant in deeper mixed leagues, especially where he can be plugged in at a corner infielder (CI) spot.
Ben Revere OF, Twins (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 15.2 percent)
Revere remains red-hot. He went 2-for-5 with an RBI single and two runs scored in Wednesday's loss to the Phillies and is hitting a cool .464 (13-for-28) over his last six games, pulling his season batting average up from .301 to .345 in the process. The speedy 24-year-old also has nine stolen bases, despite playing in just 28 games at the major league level this year. Sure, it would be nice if he drew a few more walks, but his elite contact rate at least gives him a chance to get on base. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire would be silly to sit him right now, so he makes for a fine option for anyone looking to catch up in the stolen base department.
Ryan Cook RP, Athletics (Yahoo: 30 percent owned, ESPN: 14.3 percent)
The latest turn in the MLB closer carousel, Cook has notched a pair of saves for the Athletics this week. Acquired from the Diamondbacks over the winter in the Trevor Cahill deal, the 24-year-old right-hander has a 0.64 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 28 innings this season. Of course, he has also walked 16 batters and his command was an issue at times in the minors, so there figures to be some bumps in the road. Still, A's manager Bob Melvin seems to favor him over Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour and Sean Doolittle in his new closer-by-committee. And that's good enough for him to be owned in most formats.
Cody Ross OF, Red Sox (Yahoo: 22 percent owned, ESPN: 18.7 percent)
Ross was owned in the great majority of mixed leagues prior to hitting the disabled list last month with a fractured navicular bone in his left foot. While initial word was that he would miss 6-8 weeks, he's now slated to begin a rehab assignment Friday and could rejoin the Red Sox as soon as next Tuesday. We'll likely see some shuffling in the outfield until Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford return, but Ross should be in the lineup on most days if he's healthy. His pop makes him worth a DL-stash outside of shallow leagues.
Ike Davis 1B, Mets (Yahoo: 35 percent owned, ESPN: 22.3 percent)
This time last week I was thinking that Davis could soon be headed for a demotion to Triple-A Buffalo. Now? Well, I'm increasingly optimistic that he's finally coming out of his season-long funk. Hey, I'm fickle like that. The 25-year-old first baseman hit his first home run since May 9 on Tuesday night and has hit safely in each of his last four games. With seven walks in his last seven games, it's clear he's just seeing the ball better these days. Keep in mind that he had just six walks over his previous 22 games combined. Things are looking up, at the very least.
Gavin Floyd SP, White Sox (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 45.1 percent)
I don't blame you if you're surprised to see Floyd here. After all, he has been tattooed for 30 runs on 41 hits (including 10 homers) in 25 2/3 innings over his last five starts, resulting in a 10.52 ERA. However, I see some reason for optimism in his overall numbers. He's throwing just as hard as ever, limiting walks like usual and has actually seen his strikeout and swinging strike rates go up. Would I start him Thursday night against the Cardinals? No, almost certainly not. But he's certainly worth a stash in most formats in hopes that he turns things around.
Shopping at the five-and-dime:
(Players owned in less than 10 percent of Y! and ESPN.com leagues)
Alex Presley OF, Pirates (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 2.4 percent)
I liked Presley as a sleeper coming into the season, but he was demoted by the Pirates last month after batting just .220 with a .551 OPS over his first 220 plate appearances. However, he earned his way back to the majors last week following a strong showing with Triple-A Indianapolis. The 26-year-old outfielder is hitting .305 (11-for-36) with three doubles, one triple, one home run, two RBI, three stolen bases and seven runs scored in eight games since his return and has reclaimed the leadoff spot in recent days. Worth a shot in deeper leagues.
Norichika Aoki OF, Brewers (Yahoo: 5 percent owned, ESPN: 5.1 percent)
For someone who was expected to function as a fifth outfielder coming into the season, Aoki has been quite a find for the Brewers in his first year stateside. The 30-year-old went 2-for-5 with a run scored in Wednesday's loss to the Royals and is now hitting .299/.364/.474 with three homers, five stolen bases and an .839 OPS through 54 games this season. His strong play (and Corey Hart's move to first base) has earned him regular playing time in right field and a promotion to the leadoff spot in the Brewers' lineup. I'd be surprised if he reached double-digit homers, even after his two-homer game last week, but he should be able to maintain a solid batting average while helping with stolen bases and runs scored. There's definite value here in deeper mixed leagues and five-outfielder formats.
NL ONLY
Brad Boxberger RP, Padres (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
Acquired from the Reds in the Mat Latos deal, Boxberger was called up to the majors last week after posting a 4.70 ERA and 35/15 K/BB ratio over 23 innings with Triple-A Tucson this season. While command has been an issue during his ascent through the minors (4.3 BB/9), he also averaged 12.1 K/9. The 24-year-old right-hander has three pitches in his arsenal, including a low-to-mid 90s fastball, a circle change-up and a curveball. Huston Street is an obvious candidate to be traded before the deadline, so there's a chance Boxberger will get a shot to close games by the end of the year. Feel free to stash if you're in the mood to speculate.
Joe Kelly SP, Cardinals (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.7 percent)
The Cardinals were forced to place Jaime Garcia on the disabled list last week due to tearing his left shoulder, so Kelly will hold down a rotation spot for now. The 24-year-old right-hander did well in his major league debut Sunday against the Indians, tossing five innings of one-run ball while walking one and striking out four. Kelly throws pretty hard (he averaged 92.8 mph on his fastball Sunday), but he's mostly known for his ability to induce ground balls with his power sinker rather than get strikeouts. Chris Carpenter is not expected to return until after the All-Star break and top prospect Shelby Miller has scuffled a bit this season, so Kelly should get at least a few more starts.
Jordany Valdespin 2B/SS, Mets (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
Valdespin has made the most out of limited opportunities this season, collecting two homers, three doubles, two stolen bases and 10 RBI in just 39 plate appearances. Of course, he has also struck out 10 times and has three errors at shortstop, so he isn't without his flaws. His playing time figures to be limited to bench duty and/or spot starts, but the 24-year-old has enough pop and speed to remain interesting in deeper formats and daily leagues.
Tyler Moore OF, Nationals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
Yes, this pick was influenced by Moore going 3-for-4 with two homers, a double and five RBI on Wednesday. But in NL-only leagues, aren't you supposed to take chances? Moore started Wednesday in place of Adam LaRoche, who was resting a bruised foot, but he could soon push Steve Lombardozzi for playing time in left field. While Lombardozzi took over the Nationals' primary leadoff hitter in recent weeks, he's hitting just .143 (5-for-35) this month. Moore's power potential makes him an intriguing alternative.
AL ONLY
Chris Getz 2B, Royals (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Getz is back from the disabled list after missing around three weeks with a left ribcage contusion. The 28-year-old second baseman was off to a decent start prior to the injury, hitting .277/.322/.386 with a .706 OPS and six stolen bases over his first 94 plate appearances. Of course, Getz is a .256 career hitter and has just two home runs in 1,197 plate appearances, so his speed is the only thing that makes him interesting in fantasy leagues. And there is value here, as he has stolen at least 15 bases in each of the last three seasons.
Franklin Gutierrez OF, Mariners (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
After being limited to just 92 games last season due to a stomach issue and an oblique injury, Gutierrez missed the first two months of this season with a torn pectoral muscle and plantar fasciitis in his heel. However, he finally returned to the Mariners on Wednesday. The 28-year-old has been a huge disappointment since his breakthrough 2009 campaign and he was hitting just .211 (8-for-38) in 10 rehab games with Triple-A Tacoma, so it might take him a little while to shake the rust, but his speed and modest pop makes him a no-brainer add in AL-only formats.
Erasmo Ramirez RP, Mariners (Yahoo: 1 percent owned, ESPN: 0 percent)
The Mariners optioned Blake Beavan to the minors this week and plan to push back Kevin Millwood's next start after he left last Friday's combined no-hitter with a groin injury, so Ramirez will get the nod Thursday night against the Padres. The 22-year-old right-hander doesn't have great stuff, but he averaged an elite 1.4 BB/9 over parts of five seasons in the minors. Pitching half of his games in Safeco Field will certainly help, but he has a chance to stick around as a fourth or fifth starter.
Ryan Kalish OF, Red Sox (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 0.1 percent)
Kalish would probably be playing in the Red Sox outfield right now if he didn't undergo surgery last November to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. The good news is that he is making solid progress in his rehab and could be a factor at the major league level very soon. The 23-year-old is hitting .429 (12-for-28) with three homers and eight RBI in seven games since having his rehab assignment moved to Triple-A Pawtucket and has been playing quite a bit of center field. Things could obviously get pretty crowded in Boston's outfield once Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury are ready to return, but it would be a good idea to stash Kalish until there's some more clarity with the situation.
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