It's so hot, you can barely say "It's so hot," without slurring your words because your tongue is melting. It's so hot, it's not even worth going outside if you have cardboard and ice in the house to eat for dinner. It's so hot you're afraid to crack the door to get the mail on the front mat. It's so hot, you called off the barbecue and sat in a tub of ice in front of Weekend At Bernie's Two.
It's so hot.
It's a yearly tradition, but it's worth doing every summer: we'll name the tiers after the different levels of summer heat. Because if you're feeling the heat on your recliner while watching the game, imagine being the struggling (bearded) Ike Davis facing Craig Kimbrel cracking triple digits on the radar gun while the sun cracks triple digits on the thermometer.
That's hot.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Perma-Shorts" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wear a pair of shorts, sit on some black leather seats in your sauna of a car after a double feature, and suddenly you're always wearing those shorts. They've melted into your legs.
Craig Kimbrel has jellied more than a few legs. He struck out two against now walks Tuesday night. He had a Kimbrel on June 13 and June 3rd (no walk, no hits, three strikeouts). He hasn't walked in twelve appearances. In those 12 innings, he has 20 strikeouts. It's like he's a college graduate in rookie ball or something. Just toying with people.
Kenley Jansen seems like he's toying with people, but he celebrated his move into the elite tier by giving up a home run against the Angels and losing the game. He got right back on the horse by striking out two White Sox against no baserunners in his next appearance. He's fine. Great, even.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Rat Armpit" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Ever been on a train that smelled like a gang of rats crawled up everyone's shirts and died in their armpits? I have.
Aroldis Chapman normally makes people feel like they can't keep their eyes open -- his 95+ MPH slider makes them faint -- but the last week hasn't been so kind to the new closer. He blew a save Tuesday night, and also on June 10th and June 7th. In between, he struck a lot of guys out and walked a lot of guys. Still what he does.
He belongs with John Axford, even if John Axford blew the save against Toronto Tuesday night and dropped to the bottom of the tier. Even if John Axford blew three straight games wide open June 10th, 13th and 14th. Even if John Axford has seven walks against nine strikeouts in his last ten innings… Wait, this means Axford should drop to the bottom of the tier and serve as a warning sign for bad control. Still, it's not as if Francisco Rodriguez has been lights out, and Axford is under team control until 2016. They'll give him time to find the plate. More work like this, though, and he'll switch places with a player in tier three soon. He still has one of the best strikeout rates in all of baseball, and his walks are a little less damaging in his fewer innings.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Full Body Shave" Tier.)
Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Plenty of times I've been in heat and wondered why I had long hair. Some times I've been in heat and wondered why I had any hair at all. One day, I might just act on it.
Heath Bell is starting to show something. Sure, his swinging strike rate is still bad, and his walk rate is atrocious. He was never really a ground ball guy either. But his velocity has been up from a floor around 92 mph recently, and so it's not gas he's lacking. Since he returned to the role, he's got 15 strikeouts against two walks in nine appearances -- that looks like the Bell of old. Amazingly, he could be a buy-low guy right now.
Since Rafael Soriano only blew one save while David Robertson is out, let's believe his team when they say he's still the closer. That's how fickle this role is -- if he'd blown a couple games and walked a few guys, the fan base might be aching for Robertson, and Soriano would be on the hot face. Now the guy with the serious closer face has a closer's role to go with it.
Ain't nothing wrong… with a little Fernando Rodney.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Pool BBQ" Tier.)
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Should we jump in the pool and then barbecue, or barbecue and then jump in the pool? Neither. We should find a way to barbecue while standing in the pool. That's what we should do.
It's a weird time to promote Ernesto Frieri -- he just got a hold Tuesday night -- but he's so awesome he's like eating a Bratwurst in a bathtub full of ice. He's been getting more saves than holds, and Scott Downs is the lefty closer. Frieri is more important to own.
Ryan Cook moves into sole ownership of the Athletics' closer job, but he's not without issues. He's walked 17 in 30 2/3 innings so far this year, but makes it work with the strikeouts. Remember that Henry Rodriguez once had control issues and a job. Grant Balfour has worked his way back into the eighth inning and could be relevant -- but he could also get traded pretty easily. Cook is the Aussie to own.
Alfredo Aceves has been peeing in the pool, but lately he's been cool enough for school. Will any of it matter? Even if he's struck out eight against his last in six innings of work, Andrew Bailey still looms behind him. Just enjoy what you've gotten so far. At least Vincente Padilla is not taking the job away.
Jonathan Broxton has more challengers than Aceves -- Greg Holland is a great pitcher, and Aaron Crow is much better in the bullpen -- but he overcame a blown save on June 17th to get the save Tuesday night. He's getting a few more strikeouts these days and could hold onto the job, although he really should be in the Brett Myers category. He could get traded for future Royals pieces, and his underlying stats don't suggest he'd be a closer for many teams. He's showing the worst swinging strike rate of his career.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
It's so hot, you can barely say "It's so hot," without slurring your words because your tongue is melting. It's so hot, it's not even worth going outside if you have cardboard and ice in the house to eat for dinner. It's so hot you're afraid to crack the door to get the mail on the front mat. It's so hot, you called off the barbecue and sat in a tub of ice in front of Weekend At Bernie's Two.
It's so hot.
It's a yearly tradition, but it's worth doing every summer: we'll name the tiers after the different levels of summer heat. Because if you're feeling the heat on your recliner while watching the game, imagine being the struggling (bearded) Ike Davis facing Craig Kimbrel cracking triple digits on the radar gun while the sun cracks triple digits on the thermometer.
That's hot.
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Perma-Shorts" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Wear a pair of shorts, sit on some black leather seats in your sauna of a car after a double feature, and suddenly you're always wearing those shorts. They've melted into your legs.
Craig Kimbrel has jellied more than a few legs. He struck out two against now walks Tuesday night. He had a Kimbrel on June 13 and June 3rd (no walk, no hits, three strikeouts). He hasn't walked in twelve appearances. In those 12 innings, he has 20 strikeouts. It's like he's a college graduate in rookie ball or something. Just toying with people.
Kenley Jansen seems like he's toying with people, but he celebrated his move into the elite tier by giving up a home run against the Angels and losing the game. He got right back on the horse by striking out two White Sox against no baserunners in his next appearance. He's fine. Great, even.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Rat Armpit" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Ever been on a train that smelled like a gang of rats crawled up everyone's shirts and died in their armpits? I have.
Aroldis Chapman normally makes people feel like they can't keep their eyes open -- his 95+ MPH slider makes them faint -- but the last week hasn't been so kind to the new closer. He blew a save Tuesday night, and also on June 10th and June 7th. In between, he struck a lot of guys out and walked a lot of guys. Still what he does.
He belongs with John Axford, even if John Axford blew the save against Toronto Tuesday night and dropped to the bottom of the tier. Even if John Axford blew three straight games wide open June 10th, 13th and 14th. Even if John Axford has seven walks against nine strikeouts in his last ten innings… Wait, this means Axford should drop to the bottom of the tier and serve as a warning sign for bad control. Still, it's not as if Francisco Rodriguez has been lights out, and Axford is under team control until 2016. They'll give him time to find the plate. More work like this, though, and he'll switch places with a player in tier three soon. He still has one of the best strikeout rates in all of baseball, and his walks are a little less damaging in his fewer innings.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Full Body Shave" Tier.)
Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Plenty of times I've been in heat and wondered why I had long hair. Some times I've been in heat and wondered why I had any hair at all. One day, I might just act on it.
Heath Bell is starting to show something. Sure, his swinging strike rate is still bad, and his walk rate is atrocious. He was never really a ground ball guy either. But his velocity has been up from a floor around 92 mph recently, and so it's not gas he's lacking. Since he returned to the role, he's got 15 strikeouts against two walks in nine appearances -- that looks like the Bell of old. Amazingly, he could be a buy-low guy right now.
Since Rafael Soriano only blew one save while David Robertson is out, let's believe his team when they say he's still the closer. That's how fickle this role is -- if he'd blown a couple games and walked a few guys, the fan base might be aching for Robertson, and Soriano would be on the hot face. Now the guy with the serious closer face has a closer's role to go with it.
Ain't nothing wrong… with a little Fernando Rodney.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Pool BBQ" Tier.)
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Matt Capps, Minnesota Twins
Frank Francisco, New York Mets
Should we jump in the pool and then barbecue, or barbecue and then jump in the pool? Neither. We should find a way to barbecue while standing in the pool. That's what we should do.
It's a weird time to promote Ernesto Frieri -- he just got a hold Tuesday night -- but he's so awesome he's like eating a Bratwurst in a bathtub full of ice. He's been getting more saves than holds, and Scott Downs is the lefty closer. Frieri is more important to own.
Ryan Cook moves into sole ownership of the Athletics' closer job, but he's not without issues. He's walked 17 in 30 2/3 innings so far this year, but makes it work with the strikeouts. Remember that Henry Rodriguez once had control issues and a job. Grant Balfour has worked his way back into the eighth inning and could be relevant -- but he could also get traded pretty easily. Cook is the Aussie to own.
Alfredo Aceves has been peeing in the pool, but lately he's been cool enough for school. Will any of it matter? Even if he's struck out eight against his last in six innings of work, Andrew Bailey still looms behind him. Just enjoy what you've gotten so far. At least Vincente Padilla is not taking the job away.
Jonathan Broxton has more challengers than Aceves -- Greg Holland is a great pitcher, and Aaron Crow is much better in the bullpen -- but he overcame a blown save on June 17th to get the save Tuesday night. He's getting a few more strikeouts these days and could hold onto the job, although he really should be in the Brett Myers category. He could get traded for future Royals pieces, and his underlying stats don't suggest he'd be a closer for many teams. He's showing the worst swinging strike rate of his career.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Insta-Hangover" Tier.)
Tom Wilhelmsen (first chair), Brandon League (second chair), Seattle Mariners
Brett Myers (first chair) Brandon Lyon (second chair), Wesley Wright (third chair), Houston Astros
Jose Valverde (first chair), Joaquin Benoit (second chair), Phil Coke (third chair), Detroit Tigers
Tyler Clippard (first chair), Sean Burnett (second chair), Washington Nationals
Carlos Marmol (first chair), Shawn Camp (second chair), Chicago Cubs
Casey Janssen (first chair), Francisco Cordero (second chair), Jason Frasor (third chair), Toronto Blue Jays
Adult beverages dehydrate. Sometimes, you're so dehydrated that just touching the bottle brings on the headache. It might be the most tragic of all summer phenomenons.
Tom Wilhelmsen used to be a bartender, so he knows all about the instant hangover. He's been dealing them to opposing batters -- a Kimbrel Tuesday night, and an unblemished record since he was made the closer. The team brass made some noise about returning Brandon League to the role, but he's blown up a few times and pitched in the seventh inning in Tuesday's close game. League is an okay guy to keep around, but Wilhelmsen is the guy right now.
Brett Myers has to drop a tier for his five-run blow-up of a blown game on Monday. He gave up eight hits on the way to getting two outs. Otherwise, he's taken to the closing role. He's not striking out guys like you'd want, but his velocity is up two ticks (now over 91 mph) and his swinging strike rate is back into above-average territory. He's probably attractive to the right contender, but he's also not a slam-dunk closer in Boston, as an example. The combo of his so-so strikeout rate and trade rumors makes him a guy you keep for now, trade if you can, and don't trade for.
We've been waiting all along for Jose Valverde to realize he's got a hangover, and it took a wrist injury to point it out. He couldn't throw enough warmup tosses to go into the game in a save chance, and Phil Coke got the job. If the injury continues, though, it will be Joaquin Benoit -- who came in in the eighth inning to get a hold -- getting most of the saves chances going forward. He deserves them, and is the rare multi-year reliever contract to work out. So far.
Hey who looks like he's the Chicago closer after the carousel has stopped. Carlos Marmol still has seven walks against nine strikeouts in his eight appearances since he was recalled… Yuck. Guess that must mean Shawn Camp is really a middle innings guy (he is) and the other guys were terrible (they were). Marmol it is for now, at least until he's traded or implodes again.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Injured
Andrew Bailey (thumb), Boston Red Sox
Kyle Farnsworth (elbow), Tampa Bay Rays
Drew Storen (elbow), Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Farnsworth made his third rehab appearance Monday night, but he's probably headed for setup duty once he returns. Drew Storen is throwing three times a week, but is not yet cleared for rehab. He wants to be back in a month or less. Sergio Santos is still shut down and Andrew Bailey is still hoping for the All-Star break.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
We took Carlos Marmol off this list this week. There probably won't be another resurrection on this list.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Steals Department
We profiled the San Diego middle infield three weeks back, and then mentioned them again two weeks ago, but it's probably worth pointing out that Everth Cabrera is fourth in baseball with six steals in the past two weeks, and is probably rosterable in deeper mixed leagues where owners can stomach his bad batting average. Rajai Davis is owned in twice as many leagues and won't necessarily have a better batting average. Ditto S&S favorite Tony Campana, who is back to playing every day and is capable of dropping a three-steal day at a moment's notice. Michael Saunders, last week's deep league rec, is also close to relevant in mixed leagues. He can probably hit about .260+ going forward, and has power and speed. It's better if you can leave him on the bench and platoon him though. Alexei Ramirez is perking up if he's available in your league, by the way. The only thing missing from his overall line is his power, and that takes the longest to stabilize. He's still close to a .270 10/10 guy over the rest of the season. We've talked about Norichika Aoki in this space, too, and he can equal those projections (with a better batting average), if you need an outfielder to do that for you. Corey Hart looks comfortable at first base.
On at least one fantasy platform, Brian Bixler is owned in 0% of leagues. He should probably be owned in the deeper National League only leagues out there, though. He really strikes out too much, and won't have a good batting average, but he does have a little speed and is playing all over the diamond with the Astros right now. .230+ with 20-SB type speed? It's ugly, but the waiver wire in those kinds of leagues is pretty ugly right now. With Jed Lowrie's injury history, and the Astros' contenders at third base and in the outfield, Bixler should get some semi-regular time. At least against lefties. Hey, this is the bed you made by joining a league like this. You get to dream on Brian Bixler, a 29-year-old super utility guy with fewer than 300 plate appearances in his career (and a hefty strikeout rate to boot).