Still here on vacation, if you can call it that. Visiting the sister in law and her newborn, and her 18-month-old, all with my three-month-old… it's a babypocalypse. Or maybe it's just an episode of Oprah -- You get a baby! You get a baby! You get a baby!
Hardly leaves much time for vacation. At least we have some great examples of baby ages at our disposal. Each of these babies can be an inspiration for a tier. All babies are great, and all parents are proud, but there are just time periods in a baby's life that are better than others.
So, in honor of the life I'm suddenly living, I present to you this week's tiers, named after the stages in a baby's life. Nothing if not topical, am I right?
Tier 1: Elite (6) (AKA: The "Newborn" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
There's nothing bad a person can say about a newborn. I guess if you're just not planning to have babies, and you're not a baby person, you can say that they just aren't your style. But even those cats -- and I know plenty -- are a little stymied when they come face to face with a baby that was inside a womb less than a month before. Those babies basically don't cry. They don't throw temper tantrums. They don't have tempers. They sleep, they eat, they poop -- and even their poop's not such a big deal. And they look like little angels maybe 99% of the time.
Aroldis Chapman has had two Kimbrels since he hit that rough patch. He has 21 strikeouts in his last 8 2/3 innings… He has two walks. And, given his age -- 24 -- his arm is fresh. He even pitched back-to-back-to-back innings between the 13th and the 15th of July. There's really nothing to not love about this guy right now. He's just a baby, man. A fierce, gas-throwing, strikeout hoarding baby.
Kenley Jansen is the newborn of this family, and he's blown two saves in a row, but he's not going to drop out of the tier just yet. With 64 strikeouts in 42 and 2/3 innings, he's giving you good value in every other category, and he's probably not going to lose the job for giving up three hits and no walks while getting his last seven outs.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "One Year" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Every baby develops differently. Instead of 'one year,' think of this tier as that magical moment when the baby takes his first steps, begins to form words, and still can't get into the cupboard and do serious damage. He's not yet completely mobile, but he's giving you all the firsts that you can handle.
This tier seems lonely, maybe it needs a fresh face. Maybe you could say that Fernando Rodney, who's had a magical season full of firsts at the ripe age of 35, should be here. After all, he's still thriving despite Kyle Farnsworth's return. He's not a pumpkin yet. Still, with a story this unique, it feels like the magic could disappear at any moment. Maybe you could say Chris Perez should be up here. But he's striking out more than a batter per nine innings over his career rate, and his swinging strike rate and velocity predict a lower strikeout rate as well. His career walk rate predicts a worse walk rate. Regression seems to be coming, at least the numbers say so. Maybe you could move Huston Street up because of the rumors that the Padres don't want to swallow any of his salary, making him a possible Padre after the trade deadline. Instead, we'll pass, and wait for another week of information before bringing someone up a tier.
Tier 3: OK options (8) (AKA: The "Three Months" Tier.)
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
I'm lucky enough to be in this tier, and I'll take it about a million times over the storm that is on the horizon. First directed smiles come in this tier, and the baby is finally acknowledging you and staring into your face lovingly. They can't talk, they can't play with a toy, most won't even sit still through a baby book, they just want to be carried around to look at things, they sleep every other hour for a half hour, they can finally pee enough quantity to be dangerous, and they require constant attention -- but they'll smile at you!
Maybe Santiago Casilla is getting as tired as the parent of a newborn. He's been thrown in two back-to-back-to-backs in the last month, and both times he blew one of his three chances. He's blown four of his last seven opportunities, and he's not on the most stable footing. On the other hand, he came back from a blister issue and got his job handed right back to him, and the team prefers Sergio Romo setting up. Might be good enough.
Every closer with a job is cute, just like every baby is cute. So even though Jim Johnson is suddenly blowing games left and right -- six runs over his last four outs -- and he doesn't give you strikeouts (23 in his 38 and 2/3 innings this season, or about 15 less than a normal closer), he's a closer! And look, he's smiling at you. Kinda, sorta, not really.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Eighteen Months" Tier.)
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Eighteen months is the tier of question marks. Will the baby angelically run towards you for a hug? Or will the baby run away from you screaming? Will the baby sit still for a book? Or will he cry so hard that he can't breathe, blow snot bubbles into the air and then cry some more? You never know what you're going to get, and boy, hope you babyproofed the house by now, because that baby will get into something the minute you look away
Jonathan Broxton might not survive four months as the newest addition to the Royals family, but if he ends up a Met, he might still be a closer. Behind him in Kansas City, you have to admit that Aaron Crow has been decent again in the pen, but that Greg Holland has been pitching later in games and striking out many more batters. He's the closer if Brox the Ox leaves.
Tyler Clippard was supposed to keep ascending in the ranks. He's got a double-digit strikeout rate backed by a double-digit swinging strike rate, all built on 93-mph gas and a platoon-neutral changeup that's 12 mph slower. He'd be perfect if not for spotty control. Well, now in his last four appearances, he's had a two-walk-no-strikeout inning, lost a tie game, and blown a save spectacularly. Tuesday night, he gave up a single to Josh Thole, a single to David Wright, struck out Scott Hairston, allowed a three-run homer to light-hitting utility man Jordany Valdespin, and then struck out Ike Davis and got a pop out from Andres Torres. That's not enough to give Drew Storen the job back without a statement from his manager, but it is enough to keep Drew Storen within arm's reach.
And really the only problem with Casey Janssen -- other than a strikeout rate that's about three per nine better than his career rate -- was that Sergio Santos was on his way back. Now that's no longer the case. So now Casey Janssen is just a question mark -- based on that strikeout rate that's about three per nine better than his career rate.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Still here on vacation, if you can call it that. Visiting the sister in law and her newborn, and her 18-month-old, all with my three-month-old… it's a babypocalypse. Or maybe it's just an episode of Oprah -- You get a baby! You get a baby! You get a baby!
Hardly leaves much time for vacation. At least we have some great examples of baby ages at our disposal. Each of these babies can be an inspiration for a tier. All babies are great, and all parents are proud, but there are just time periods in a baby's life that are better than others.
So, in honor of the life I'm suddenly living, I present to you this week's tiers, named after the stages in a baby's life. Nothing if not topical, am I right?
Tier 1: Elite (6) (AKA: The "Newborn" Tier.)
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
There's nothing bad a person can say about a newborn. I guess if you're just not planning to have babies, and you're not a baby person, you can say that they just aren't your style. But even those cats -- and I know plenty -- are a little stymied when they come face to face with a baby that was inside a womb less than a month before. Those babies basically don't cry. They don't throw temper tantrums. They don't have tempers. They sleep, they eat, they poop -- and even their poop's not such a big deal. And they look like little angels maybe 99% of the time.
Aroldis Chapman has had two Kimbrels since he hit that rough patch. He has 21 strikeouts in his last 8 2/3 innings… He has two walks. And, given his age -- 24 -- his arm is fresh. He even pitched back-to-back-to-back innings between the 13th and the 15th of July. There's really nothing to not love about this guy right now. He's just a baby, man. A fierce, gas-throwing, strikeout hoarding baby.
Kenley Jansen is the newborn of this family, and he's blown two saves in a row, but he's not going to drop out of the tier just yet. With 64 strikeouts in 42 and 2/3 innings, he's giving you good value in every other category, and he's probably not going to lose the job for giving up three hits and no walks while getting his last seven outs.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (5) (AKA: The "One Year" Tier.)
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Every baby develops differently. Instead of 'one year,' think of this tier as that magical moment when the baby takes his first steps, begins to form words, and still can't get into the cupboard and do serious damage. He's not yet completely mobile, but he's giving you all the firsts that you can handle.
This tier seems lonely, maybe it needs a fresh face. Maybe you could say that Fernando Rodney, who's had a magical season full of firsts at the ripe age of 35, should be here. After all, he's still thriving despite Kyle Farnsworth's return. He's not a pumpkin yet. Still, with a story this unique, it feels like the magic could disappear at any moment. Maybe you could say Chris Perez should be up here. But he's striking out more than a batter per nine innings over his career rate, and his swinging strike rate and velocity predict a lower strikeout rate as well. His career walk rate predicts a worse walk rate. Regression seems to be coming, at least the numbers say so. Maybe you could move Huston Street up because of the rumors that the Padres don't want to swallow any of his salary, making him a possible Padre after the trade deadline. Instead, we'll pass, and wait for another week of information before bringing someone up a tier.
Tier 3: OK options (8) (AKA: The "Three Months" Tier.)
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
I'm lucky enough to be in this tier, and I'll take it about a million times over the storm that is on the horizon. First directed smiles come in this tier, and the baby is finally acknowledging you and staring into your face lovingly. They can't talk, they can't play with a toy, most won't even sit still through a baby book, they just want to be carried around to look at things, they sleep every other hour for a half hour, they can finally pee enough quantity to be dangerous, and they require constant attention -- but they'll smile at you!
Maybe Santiago Casilla is getting as tired as the parent of a newborn. He's been thrown in two back-to-back-to-backs in the last month, and both times he blew one of his three chances. He's blown four of his last seven opportunities, and he's not on the most stable footing. On the other hand, he came back from a blister issue and got his job handed right back to him, and the team prefers Sergio Romo setting up. Might be good enough.
Every closer with a job is cute, just like every baby is cute. So even though Jim Johnson is suddenly blowing games left and right -- six runs over his last four outs -- and he doesn't give you strikeouts (23 in his 38 and 2/3 innings this season, or about 15 less than a normal closer), he's a closer! And look, he's smiling at you. Kinda, sorta, not really.
Tier 4: Question marks (5) (AKA: The "Eighteen Months" Tier.)
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Alfredo Aceves, Boston Red Sox
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Eighteen months is the tier of question marks. Will the baby angelically run towards you for a hug? Or will the baby run away from you screaming? Will the baby sit still for a book? Or will he cry so hard that he can't breathe, blow snot bubbles into the air and then cry some more? You never know what you're going to get, and boy, hope you babyproofed the house by now, because that baby will get into something the minute you look away
Jonathan Broxton might not survive four months as the newest addition to the Royals family, but if he ends up a Met, he might still be a closer. Behind him in Kansas City, you have to admit that Aaron Crow has been decent again in the pen, but that Greg Holland has been pitching later in games and striking out many more batters. He's the closer if Brox the Ox leaves.
Tyler Clippard was supposed to keep ascending in the ranks. He's got a double-digit strikeout rate backed by a double-digit swinging strike rate, all built on 93-mph gas and a platoon-neutral changeup that's 12 mph slower. He'd be perfect if not for spotty control. Well, now in his last four appearances, he's had a two-walk-no-strikeout inning, lost a tie game, and blown a save spectacularly. Tuesday night, he gave up a single to Josh Thole, a single to David Wright, struck out Scott Hairston, allowed a three-run homer to light-hitting utility man Jordany Valdespin, and then struck out Ike Davis and got a pop out from Andres Torres. That's not enough to give Drew Storen the job back without a statement from his manager, but it is enough to keep Drew Storen within arm's reach.
And really the only problem with Casey Janssen -- other than a strikeout rate that's about three per nine better than his career rate -- was that Sergio Santos was on his way back. Now that's no longer the case. So now Casey Janssen is just a question mark -- based on that strikeout rate that's about three per nine better than his career rate.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Two Years" Tier.)
Francisco Rodriguez (first chair), John Axford (second chair), Milwaukee Brewers
Steve Cishek (first chair), Heath Bell (second chair), Mike Dunn (third chair), Miami Marlins
Carlos Marmol (first chair), Shawn Camp (second chair), Chicago Cubs
Brett Myers (first chair) Brandon Lyon (second chair), Wilton Lopez (third chair), Houston Astros
Jared Burton (first chair), Glen Perkins (second chair), Minnesota Twins
Bobby Parnell (first chair), Jon Rauch (second chair), Miguel Batista (third chair), New York Mets
Depending on the baby, you might be getting new teeth, dealing with leaving the home for school for the first time, skinned knees, unfulfillable desires, or the whys. The whys look like they could be some fun, at first. At some point it's not fun anymore and then come the becauses.
Looks like Francisco Rodriguez is the new closer in Milwaukee. Why? Because he got the save Tuesday night. Why? Because John Axford couldn't find the zone? Why? Mostly because he didn't throw first-pitch strikes. Why? Well you'd have to ask him. Why? Because I don't know. Why? Because I don't know everything. Why? Because. What I do know is that John Axford is still under team control for about five years longer than Francisco Rodriguez. So after a little while, if Ax finds the zone, it will be very tempting for the Brew Crew to move him back into the role. Why? Because it makes economic sense to do so.
Mike Dunn got the save the other night in Miami, but he's probably the third fiddle. And he's not playing behind Juan Carlos Oviedo, because Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez), now has elbow issues in the minors. He's got to mend before he can contend. Heath Bell is still there, and Steve Cishek is the sexy new own. Dunn's much better against lefties, and Cishek was sick the night they went to Dunn, so that makes him the situational guy (although maybe he should be second).
Carlos Marmol is the closer in Chicago, and with his almost ten-per-nine walk rate, he's probably not going to attract much trade interest. The other men in his pen are worse than he is, probably, and his velocity has been up since he returned from the DL this latest time. He's a sneaky buy-low? He actually could be. If you can stomach the WHIP being around 1.4 going forward.
This is a big deal. Matt Capps has rotator cuff problems, and those are a big deal. He came off the DL and went right back on it, which is almost always a big deal. Which means that there might actually be a legitimate, long-term closer role up for grabs in Minnesota. Glen Perkins is still the better pitcher, but Jared Burton got the save Tuesday night, and throws with his right hand. Managers are about half as likely as they should be to pick a lefty closer. So even though Perkins has a great strikeout rate, a better-than-average walk rate, and batted ball luck that should turn in his favor soon, and even though Jared Burton is doing it more with good batted ball luck and better control -- bet on the righty that got the last save. Ever since he started throwing his changeup almost 40% of the time, Burton has been much better. Own both if you can or choose the available one if the other is gone, of course, but pick Burton if you have to choose.
Bobby Parnell stays in the first chair because Jon Rauch is just as liable to pitch the seventh as the eighth, Miguel Batista is needed in the starting rotation, and Frank Francisco felt a twinge. But now Jonathan Broxton is rumored to be headed to New York, and that would throw the whole thing out of whack -- Broxton could even close over Francisco, even though Broxton's swinging strike rate is inferior. You'd have to bet on the in-house closer if healthy, but Broxton would make this a pick'em pretty quickly.
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Injured
Andrew Bailey (thumb), Boston Red Sox
Drew Storen (elbow), Washington Nationals
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins
Frank Francisco (oblique), New York Mets
Oh boy. There goes Sergio. Shoulder injuries are the worst, and now Santos is in doubt for parts of next year. The claim is that his cuff was fine and he might be fine, but labrum tears are terrible, and they end careers. He might even be a dropper in dynasties and keepers, depending on your format. The rest of this list was supposed to be healthy by now. But Matt Capps is back on the DL with rotator cuff issues now, Frank Francisco felt a twinge, Andrew Bailey might go on rehab next week, and Drew Storen got lit up in the minor leagues on his rehab assignment. There might not be a bargain in this bin.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
Brian Fuentes, Oakland Athletics
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays
Heath Bell is… very… slowly… walking… this… way. Sergio Santos took the knife and ends up here because of it. Drew Storen is still a question mark.
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The Steals Department
Of course Carl Crawford is probably not on your waiver wire right now, but those three steals Tuesday night should probably be enough for you to make sure that he isn't. He's still a threat to steal 20+ over the second half, and in that lineup, he'll be a runs machine. Alexei Ramirez is probably also gone off your wire, but he's begun stealing bases again (two in his last five, with an unsuccessful attempt three games before that) and power takes the longest to stabilize. With just a little boost, he could hit six or seven homers and steal another six or seven. And he's a shortstop! Last on the shallower-league list is Lorenzo Cain, who's back in the big leagues and even hit a pinch-hit homer run Tuesday night. Sure, he hasn't attempted a steal and doesn't have Jarrod Dyson-like speed, and sure, he hasn't started two of the five games he's seen since he returned, but he's still interesting and could steal more than 10 with a little bit of pop in the second half.
For deeper leagues, let's look at some middle infielders. Jed Lowrie went down with a nerve issue in his leg (after being slid into, which is just strange, but about par for the course for the oft-injured shortstop) and now there's time for Marwin Gonzalez to play some. He's not really a long-term option, nor is he really a three-hundred-hitter, and he doesn't really have a lot of speed. But he'll play every day for a month-plus and could steal three-to-five without killing your batting average. Or maybe you could go with former Saves and Stealer Alexi Amarista, who has more speed but less obvious playing time. Maybe someone dropped him after he didn't start a game, but Amarista is the new utility man extraordinaire in San Diego, and he's been playing at shortstop, which might just be where he ends up full time. Everth Cabrera has his faults, after all.