Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Parade" Tier.)
Andrew Bailey (first chair), Alfredo Aceves (second chair), Boston Red Sox
Wilton Lopez (first chair), Wesley Wright (second chair), Houston Astros
Sergio Romo (first chair), Javier Lopez (second chair), Santiago Casilla (third chair), San Francisco Giants
Frank Francisco (first chair), Bobby Parnell (second chair), Jon Rauch (third chair), New York Mets
Glen Perkins (first chair), Jared Burton (second chair), Minnesota Twins
Dale Thayer (first chair), Luke Gregerson (second chair), San Diego Padres
I've talked a lot of crap on parades, so this probably wasn't a surprise to anyone. It's really just the worst of all worlds. And if you're stuck with one of these pitchers, you know what I mean.
Once the Red Sox turned their attention to the future, this change at the closer position was inevitable. Both pitchers are under control until 2014, but Aceves' best asset is his versatility, his ability to start or relieve. Bailey owns no such versatility, and he has the strikeout and walk rates of a traditional closer. As long as he's healthy, he's the guy going forward… but that's a huge if.
Brandon Barnes, Brian Bogusevic, and Jose Altuve. Those are the batters that Sergio Romo set down in order Tuesday night to get the save. Bogusevic is a lefty, but he's also a light-hitting former pitching prospect, so maybe Bruce Bochy thought the risk was minimal. This probably doesn't mean that Sergio Romo is the full-time closer, especially since he still owns that bad platoon split. Also notable from this game was the fact that Santiago Casilla was trusted with the eighth inning in a tie game. That makes him relevant again, especially since he doesn't own those same platoon issues. Wilton Lopez probably isn't in trouble despite blowing the save against the Giants, either. He just allows contact, and this will happen from time to time. There's nobody knocking the door down in Houston anyway. Actually, given their announced attendance Tuesday night, there might not be anyone at all in Minute Maid park these days.
Bobby Parnell has a bit of trouble getting up to his max velocity right away in his appearances. Of course, 'not max' for him is still the mid-nineties, but Captain Fastball can hit the triple digits. By the end of his first inning of work Tuesday night, he was hitting 98. In any case, his fine work this year has bumped him up the depth chart. He might be next in line again when Frank Francisco next grabs a body part.
Luke Gregerson has the same platoon issues as Romo, but the Padres ran out of candidates for a second. Huston Street was out with a calf strain, and Dale Thayer's wife was having a baby. Now Thayer is back, and Street says his calf feels good. The things we do for saves.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Injured
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins
Huston Street (calf), San Diego Padres
Huston Street feels good. He says his calf should allow him to return in early September.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Brian Fuentes, St. Louis Cardinals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics.
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Will Santiago Casilla take his name off this list?
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Steals Department
Ryan Kalish isn't playing regularly yet, but does a suddenly rebuilding team have any need for the skeleton formerly known as Scott Podsednik? With his current strikeout rate, Kalish is probably more of a deep leaguer, but there's still hope that he can strike out less often. Coupled with power that looks more like his minor league work, he could be a .260/15/15 kind of full-season player. Of course, if his shoulder is healed, then there's upside for more. In 2010, He hit 17 home runs and stole 32 bases over three levels, and he struck out at around a league average rate. He then lost most of 2011 to a shoulder injury suffered on a defensive play, and 2012 has been a long, slow slog back. Maybe he's more of a name to stash away for next year, but given the fact that the Sox are looking to next year more than this year, now might be the time, too.
You might have thought that was the deep league portion of The Steals Department, it does get deeper. It looked like his career might have been over when he was released by the team that drafted him, but the 31-year-old Nate McLouth has found the fountain of youth in the tougher league. What's amazing is that all of his current stats are right in line with his career rates. His isolated slugging percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate -- they're all right at career numbers. He's stolen six bases in 81 plate appearances so far the Orioles, and that's a little ahead of his pace, but he's running for his life. Expect a slightly worse batting average, power and speed, and you should get some use from McLouth, even if you have to sit him against lefties.
You might already be on your way somewhere for the long weekend. Maybe you're sneaking this in on your phone in the bathroom as you hide from family, or checking your teams in the final moments before the flight attendant threatens to take your phone away. Maybe your phone has already been confiscated and this is traveling down the aisle as you curse.
Either way, you've given this weekend some thought. As you should, it might be your last long weekend for a while, and it might signal an imminent return to school or work. At the very least, the long weekend should be a wake-up call -- it's time to pick a few categories for the stretch run in your roto league, or it's time to check out the two-starters for your first week in the head-to-head playoffs, or it's your last chance to make a move before your late trade deadline.
But most likely you have a life, and your thoughts about the weekend are mostly centered on your plans. That's fine, I'll be furiously working on my teams and my posts, but we know I'm a hardcore dork. Go enjoy yourself. No, really, it's fine.
And since I'm most likely hanging out in front of my computer or television, I'll use these tiers to rank what you'll be doing this weekend. (No, I swear, it's fine, just go. Go.)
Tier 1: Elite (4) (AKA: The "Going to a Game" Tier.)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Craig Kimbrel, Atlanta Braves
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Nathan, Texas Rangers
Since everywhere is going to be crowded, why not go to the place that's crowded all the time anyway? Plus, live sports. You really can't complain about the parking, or the prices, or your problems, because, live sports. Plus, with all the wild cards in baseball now, odds are, you can find a competitive game with implications nearby.
Joe Nathan had a Kimbrel Tuesday night! He struck out three in a clean-slate save. He also did that against Baltimore this month. He has three on the year, even. Kimbrel himself has six of the stat I named after him. Nathan's rebound this season has been remarkable. He now has his fourth-best strikeout rate, his best walk rate, and his second-best ground-ball rate of his career. He's got the swinging strikes to back it up, and his velocity is back to pre-2008 levels. Amazing what a new ligament can do.
Oh and Aroldis Chapman has only struck out one batter in his last three appearances. The shame.
Tier 2: Rock Steady (7) (AKA: The "Staying Home" Tier.)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Joel Hanrahan, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals
Rafael Soriano, New York Yankees
J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Rafael Betancourt, Colorado Rockies
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
On the other hand, if you're not going to a game, why face the crowds? If you've got a back yard and a grill, you're set. If you've got a rooftop and a hibachi, you're set. If you've got a bathtub, a fridge full of beer, and an iPad with mlb.tv on it, you're set. So, you're probably set, and if you avoid the throngs, you'll get the last laugh. And the last wing. And the last beer. Because it's your house.
Rafael Soriano had a clean slate with two strikeouts Tuesday night, and it caps a stretch of fine work. In his last ten outings, he has 11 strikeouts against one walk. Even with the blown save in there, that kind of strikeout rate, coupled with the bushels of save opportunities that a team with a good offense and a strong supporting bullpen cast can offer, makes Soriano a strong closer. For this year. Mariano Rivera is already making strides in his rehab, and he won't let it end with a shagging injury.
Tier 3: OK options (7) (AKA: The "Going Out of Town" Tier.)
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Tyler Clippard, Washington Nationals
Ernesto Frieri, Los Angeles Angels
Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Grant Balfour, Oakland Athletics
I may be a grump, but I won't talk crap on traveling. Seeing the world is great. Even seeing a place you've seen before again, but have seen less than the inside of your apartment, that's great. But maybe now's not the time. Seriously. If you go next weekend, you'll deal with approximately 46.4% less crap. Fewer lines, cheaper travel costs, emptier beaches -- so why this weekend? If it's the one free vacation day, I'd say that's the cost of avoiding the masses. And you'll get it back, considering everything will be cheaper. Any other weekend.
Ryan Cook once had a closer role, electric stuff and a walks problem. Greg Holland has that same package, and did walk two Tuesday night. There are a few differences, though. For one, Cook's walks issue was worse in the minor leagues. For two, Cook was on a contending team that couldn't afford to break him in. For three, Holland has only walked a batter twice in his last twelve outings. He's made progress, and the team is motivated to see what they've got before they make a decision about Joakim Soria's option.
It looks like Grant Balfour has settled into that Oakland role, now that we're talking about Cookie. He doesn't have the same strikeout rate as Cook, or even an average one for a closer, but he also isn't an outlier like Jim Johnson. He's got an above-average swinging strike rate right now, and double-digit strikeout rates in his career, too. With the Athletics going well, and the team competitive, there's probably not going to be another change at the role this season.
Tier 4: Question marks (6) (AKA: The "Festival" Tier.)
Jim Johnson, Baltimore Orioles
Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Festivals are made by the thing being feted, so it's hard to lump these into one group. And you can't really decide to do a festival next week, since you're stuck doing it when they've set the thing up. But festivals still mean crowds and costs, so we'll rank them here. If it's a wing fest, or a beer fest, well then this ranking is too low. Music fest? Particulars please. And the rest? I'd probably pick the bathtub/iPad combo.
John Axford is back. Two strikeouts and no walks or hits Tuesday night, and now he's successfully converted… two of his last three save attempts. That's progress these days. He's still got the strikeouts -- 12 in his last ten outings (eight innings) -- and the walks have become less common (four in his last eight innings). The Brewers own Axford's rights for a while, and they're happy to see him back on his feet. As are mustache fans, if they're back from the Mustache Festival yet.
Read more about the most volatile closer situations on the next page.
Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Parade" Tier.)
Andrew Bailey (first chair), Alfredo Aceves (second chair), Boston Red Sox
Wilton Lopez (first chair), Wesley Wright (second chair), Houston Astros
Sergio Romo (first chair), Javier Lopez (second chair), Santiago Casilla (third chair), San Francisco Giants
Frank Francisco (first chair), Bobby Parnell (second chair), Jon Rauch (third chair), New York Mets
Glen Perkins (first chair), Jared Burton (second chair), Minnesota Twins
Dale Thayer (first chair), Luke Gregerson (second chair), San Diego Padres
I've talked a lot of crap on parades, so this probably wasn't a surprise to anyone. It's really just the worst of all worlds. And if you're stuck with one of these pitchers, you know what I mean.
Once the Red Sox turned their attention to the future, this change at the closer position was inevitable. Both pitchers are under control until 2014, but Aceves' best asset is his versatility, his ability to start or relieve. Bailey owns no such versatility, and he has the strikeout and walk rates of a traditional closer. As long as he's healthy, he's the guy going forward… but that's a huge if.
Brandon Barnes, Brian Bogusevic, and Jose Altuve. Those are the batters that Sergio Romo set down in order Tuesday night to get the save. Bogusevic is a lefty, but he's also a light-hitting former pitching prospect, so maybe Bruce Bochy thought the risk was minimal. This probably doesn't mean that Sergio Romo is the full-time closer, especially since he still owns that bad platoon split. Also notable from this game was the fact that Santiago Casilla was trusted with the eighth inning in a tie game. That makes him relevant again, especially since he doesn't own those same platoon issues. Wilton Lopez probably isn't in trouble despite blowing the save against the Giants, either. He just allows contact, and this will happen from time to time. There's nobody knocking the door down in Houston anyway. Actually, given their announced attendance Tuesday night, there might not be anyone at all in Minute Maid park these days.
Bobby Parnell has a bit of trouble getting up to his max velocity right away in his appearances. Of course, 'not max' for him is still the mid-nineties, but Captain Fastball can hit the triple digits. By the end of his first inning of work Tuesday night, he was hitting 98. In any case, his fine work this year has bumped him up the depth chart. He might be next in line again when Frank Francisco next grabs a body part.
Luke Gregerson has the same platoon issues as Romo, but the Padres ran out of candidates for a second. Huston Street was out with a calf strain, and Dale Thayer's wife was having a baby. Now Thayer is back, and Street says his calf feels good. The things we do for saves.
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Injured
Sergio Santos (shoulder), Toronto Blue Jays
Matt Capps (shoulder), Minnesota Twins
Huston Street (calf), San Diego Padres
Huston Street feels good. He says his calf should allow him to return in early September.
The Deposed
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
Hector Santiago, Chicago White Sox
Brian Fuentes, St. Louis Cardinals
Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Marshall, Cincinnati Reds
Henry Rodriguez, Washington Nationals
Brandon League, Seattle Mariners
Rafael Dolis, Chicago Cubs
Jonathan Broxton, Kansas City Royals
Ryan Cook, Oakland Athletics.
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Will Santiago Casilla take his name off this list?
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
The Steals Department
Ryan Kalish isn't playing regularly yet, but does a suddenly rebuilding team have any need for the skeleton formerly known as Scott Podsednik? With his current strikeout rate, Kalish is probably more of a deep leaguer, but there's still hope that he can strike out less often. Coupled with power that looks more like his minor league work, he could be a .260/15/15 kind of full-season player. Of course, if his shoulder is healed, then there's upside for more. In 2010, He hit 17 home runs and stole 32 bases over three levels, and he struck out at around a league average rate. He then lost most of 2011 to a shoulder injury suffered on a defensive play, and 2012 has been a long, slow slog back. Maybe he's more of a name to stash away for next year, but given the fact that the Sox are looking to next year more than this year, now might be the time, too.
You might have thought that was the deep league portion of The Steals Department, it does get deeper. It looked like his career might have been over when he was released by the team that drafted him, but the 31-year-old Nate McLouth has found the fountain of youth in the tougher league. What's amazing is that all of his current stats are right in line with his career rates. His isolated slugging percentage, walk rate, strikeout rate -- they're all right at career numbers. He's stolen six bases in 81 plate appearances so far the Orioles, and that's a little ahead of his pace, but he's running for his life. Expect a slightly worse batting average, power and speed, and you should get some use from McLouth, even if you have to sit him against lefties.