Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

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Fantasy MVPs and LVPs

Saturday, October 06, 2012



Outfielders

 

MVPs - Mike Trout, Alex Rios, Adam Jones

 

Trout's projection: .256/.336/.413, 6 HR, 36 R, 28 RBI, 14 SB in 254 AB

Trout's 2012 stats: .326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 129 R, 83 RBI, 49 SB in 559 AB

 

Rios' projection: .273/.323/.422, 17 HR, 74 R, 75 RBI, 22 SB in 554 AB

Rios' 2012 stats: .304/.334/.516, 25 HR, 93 R, 91 RBI, 23 SB in 605 AB

 

Jones' projection: .287/.335/.473, 24 HR, 76 R, 84 RBI, 11 SB in 571 AB

Jones' 2012 stats: .287/.334/.505, 32 HR, 103 R, 82 RBI, 16 SB in 648 AB

 

Trout was obviously the overall fantasy MVP this year. He may well have provided more bang for the buck than anyone since Albert Pujols debuted for the Cardinals in 2001. ... I'm sure I was higher on Rios than most going into this year, but that probably wasn't the case with Jones, who took a big step forward in the power department and also established a new career high in steals. Not only did Jones go from 25 homers to 32 this season, but he had 39 doubles, topping his previous high by 13.

 

Honorable Mention - Carlos Beltran, Yoenis Cespedes, Norichika Aoki, Andrew McCutchen

2011 Winners - Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp, Melky Cabrera

2010 Winners - Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Angel Pagan

2009 Winners - Adam Lind, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp

2008 Winners - Ryan Ludwick, Josh Hamilton, Nate McLouth

2007 Winners - Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Eric Byrnes

2006 Winners - Jermaine Dye, Gary Matthews Jr., Matt Holliday

2005 Winners - Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay, Andruw Jones

2004 Winners - Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew, Aaron Rowand, Jeromy Burnitz

2003 Winners - Gary Sheffield, Scott Podsednik, Vernon Wells
2002 Winners - Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson
2001 Winners - Ichiro Suzuki, Barry Bonds, Cliff Floyd
2000 Winners - Darin Erstad, Richard Hidalgo, John Vander Wal
1999 Winners - Brian Giles, Luis Gonzalez, Roger Cedeno

 

LVPs - Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Delmon Young

 

Ellsbury's projection: .298/.357/.485, 23 HR, 114 R, 83 RBI, 40 SB in 610 AB

Ellsbury's 2012 stats: .271/.313/.370, 4 HR, 43 R, 26 RBI, 14 SB in 303 AB

 

Upton's projection: .296/.388/.570, 37 HR, 100 R, 103 RBI, 19 SB in 574 AB

Upton's 2012 stats: .280/.355/.430, 17 HR, 107 R, 67 RBI, 18 SB in 554 AB


Young's projection: .291/.327/.472, 22 HR, 79 R, 96 RBI, 4 SB in 574 AB

Young's 2012 stats: .267/.296/.411, 18 HR, 54 R, 74 RBI, 0 SB in 574 AB

 

I forgive injuries here, but Ellsbury was pretty much a non-factor in the half-season he did play. While Ellsbury's MVP-quality 2011 may go down as a career year, he still performed a whole lot better than this in his two previous healthy seasons. ... I thought Upton would take another step forward at age 24. Instead, he needed a late surge just to finish with 17 homers. He had 11 through the end of August. I'm still a big believer going forward. ... As for Delmon, well, all he needed to do was be halfway decent and he would have driven in 90-100 runs batting behind Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Instead, he slugged .411 and had his worst season to date, at least by OPS+.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Cameron Maybin, Jeff Francoeur, Hunter Pence, Drew Stubbs, Jose Tabata

2011 Losers - Carl Crawford, Alex Rios, Jason Heyward

2010 Losers - Matt Kemp, Adam Lind, Carlos Lee

2009 Losers - Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Alfonso Soriano

2008 Losers - Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Carl Crawford

2007 Losers - Jason Bay, Andruw Jones, Jermaine Dye

2006 Losers - Jason Lane, Randy Winn, Scott Podsednik

2005 Losers - Carlos Beltran, Sammy Sosa, Corey Patterson

2004 Losers - Sammy Sosa, Marlon Byrd, Brian Giles

2003 Losers - Pat Burrell, Shawn Green, Larry Walker
2002 Losers - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Pierre, Richard Hidalgo
2001 Losers - Richard Hidalgo, Darin Erstad, Carl Everett
2000 Losers - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran
1999 Losers - Jose Cruz Jr., Kenny Lofton, Ray Lankford

 


Starting Pitchers

 

MVPs - R.A. Dickey, Kyle Lohse, Gio Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, Chris Sale

 

Dickey's projection: 13-12, 3.71 ERA, 1.252 WHIP, 131 K in 213 1/3 IP

Dickey's 2012 stats: 20-6, 2.73 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, 230 K in 233 2/3 IP

 

Lohse's projection: 10-11, 4.15 ERA, 1.335 WHIP, 108 K in 184 1/3 IP

Lohse's 2012 stats: 16-3, 2.86 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 143 K in 211 IP

 

Gonzalez's projection: 14-10, 3.56 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 201 K in 207 1/3 IP

Gonzalez's 2012 stats: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.129 WHIP, 207 K in 199 1/3 IP

 

Medlen's projection: 5-5, 1 Sv, 3.30 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, 65 K in 76 1/3 IP

Medlen's 2012 stats: 12-1, 1 Sv, 1.57 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, 120 K in 138 IP

 

Sale's projection: 10-9, 3.82 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 153 K in 169 2/3 IP

Sale's 2012 stats: 17-8, 3.05 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 192 K in 192 IP

 

Not only was Dickey terrific throughout, but he obviously mastered the art of pitching to the score last winter. In 2011, he had a fine 3.28 ERA, yet he finished 8-13 in 32 starts. ... Lohse is the biggest surprise of the group in my mind, even though he went 14-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 2011. I figured he'd regress, yet he actually kicked up another notch and blew away his previous career-best ERA for the second straight year. ... I had Saleas as the worst bet of the AL's big three relief-to-starter conversions this year. I ranked Neftali Feliz 57th, Daniel Bard 64th and Sale 68th among MLB SPs.

 

Honorable Mention - Johnny Cueto, David Price, Jake Peavy, Wade Miley, Jarrod Parker

2011 Winners - Justin Verlander, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Clayton Kershaw, Doug Fister

2010 Winners - Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver

2009 Winners - Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Wandy Rodriguez, Joel Pineiro

2008 Winners - Clff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, Ervin Santana, Roy Halladay

2007 Winners - Fausto Carmona, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, James Shields, Erik Bedard

2006 Winners - Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Webb, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Harang, Justin Verlander

2005 Winners - Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee, John Patterson

2004 Winners - Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Carl Pavano, Oliver Perez, Chris Carpenter

2003 Winners - Esteban Loaiza, Jason Schmidt, Livan Hernandez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay
2002 Winners - Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, Roy Halladay
2001 Winners - Mark Mulder, Joe Mays, John Burkett, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt
2000 Winners - Ryan Dempster, Jeff D’Amico, Glendon Rusch, Darryl Kile, Chan Ho Park
1999 Winners - Mike Hampton, Todd Ritchie, Tim Hudson, Kevin Millwood, Jose Lima

 

LVPs - Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Ricky Romero, Jon Lester, Dan Haren

 

Lincecum's projection: 15-10, 3.20 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 219 K in 214 IP

Lincecum's 2012 stats: 10-15, 5.18 ERA, 1.468 WHIP, 190 K in 186 IP

 

Halladay's projection: 19-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.060 WHIP, 201 K in 229 1/3 IP

Halladay's 2012 stats: 11-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, 132 K in 156 1/3 IP

 

Romero's projection: 16-9, 3.67 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, 180 K in 216 IP

Romero's 2012 stats: 9-14, 5.77 ERA, 1.674 WHIP, 124 K in 181 IP

 

Lester's projection: 16-9, 3.46 ERA, 1.217 WHIP, 190 K in 203 IP

Lester's 2012 stats: 9-14, 4.82 ERA, 1.383 WHIP, 166 K in 205 1/3 IP

 

Haren's projection: 16-10, 3.65 ERA, 1.160 WHIP, 182 K in 226 2/3 IP

Haren's 2012 stats: 12-13, 4.33 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 142 K in 176 2/3 IP

 

Halladay's struggles were injury related, but it didn't stop the future Hall of Famer from throwing 156 mediocre innings. That gets him a spot high on the list. Still, Lincecum was the bigger disappointment, turning in the worst season of any NL starter. The 190 strikeouts don't make up for that ERA or WHIP. ... Romero gave up 43 more earned runs while pitching 44 fewer innings than in 2011. ... Lester gets the obligatory Red Sox spot over Josh Beckett because I expected considerably more from him. I had him ranked 19th among SPs, compared to 35th for Beckett.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ervin Santana

2011 Losers - Brian Matusz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, Ricky Nolasco, Chad Billingsley

2010 Losers - Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez, A.J. Burnett

2009 Losers - Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Joba Chamberlain, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka

2008 Losers - Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, Pedro Martinez, Ian Snell, Rich Hill

2007 Losers - Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Mussina, Dontrelle Willis, Jose Contreras, Scott Olsen

2006 Losers - Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Felix Hernandez, Dontrelle Willis, Odalis Perez

2005 Losers - Oliver Perez, Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, Zack Greinke, Eric Milton

2004 Losers - Esteban Loaiza, Barry Zito, Jose Contreras, Jamie Moyer, Javier Vazquez

2003 Losers - Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Ramon Ortiz, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe
2002 Losers - Chan Ho Park, Freddy Garcia, Bud Smith, Brad Penny, Javier Vazquez
2001 Losers - Scott Elarton, Livan Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Bartolo Colon, Dave Burba
2000 Losers - Jose Lima, Ramon Martinez, David Cone, Omar Daal, Kevin Millwood
1999 Losers - Roger Clemens, Jeff Fassero, Chan Ho Park, Tom Glavine, Brett Tomko

 


Relief Pitchers

 

MVPs - Fernando Rodney, Jim Johnson, Aroldis Chapman, Rafael Soriano

 

Rodney's projection: 3-4, 0 Sv, 4.22 ERA, 1.453 WHIP, 53 K in 64 IP

Rodney's 2012 stats: 2-2, 48 Sv, 0.60 ERA, 0.777 WHIP, 76 K in 74 2/3 IP

 

Johnson's projection: 4-4, 26 Sv, 3.57 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 51 K in 68 IP

Johnson's 2012 stats: 2-1, 51 Sv, 2.49 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 41 K in 68 2/3 IP

 

Chapman's projection: 5-3, 14 Sv, 2.97 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, 94 K in 69 2/3 IP

Chapman's 2012 stats: 5-5, 38 Sv, 1.51 ERA, 0.801 WHIP, 122 K in 71 2/3 IP

 

Soriano's projection: 4-3, 2 Sv, 3.32 ERA, 1.105 WHIP, 56 K in 57 IP

Soriano's 2012 stats: 2-1, 42 Sv, 2.26 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 69 K in 67 2/3 IP

 

Several early-season closer switches and injuries made for plentiful choices here. Still, Rodney easily claims the top spot after racking up 48 saves and posting the lowest ERA in major league history (min. 50 IP). And it probably would have taken 10-man reserve rosters to get him drafted in AL-only leagues this year. ... Looking back, I really should have projected Chapman for more strikeouts. I put him at 12.1 K 9/IP, down a bit from his 12.8 in 50 innings in 2011. He ended up at 15.3.

 

Honorable Mention - Tom Wilhelmsen, Ernesto Frieri, Tyler Clippard, Casey Janssen

2011 Winners - Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Salas, Brandon League, Jordan Walden

2010 Winners - Neftali Feliz, John Axford, Rafael Soriano, Chris Perez

2009 Winners - Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma, Ryan Franklin, Rafael Soriano

2008 Winners - Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Francisco Rodriguez

2007 Winners - Jeremy Accardo, Takashi Saito, Kevin Gregg, Manuel Corpas

2006 Winners - J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito, Akinori Otsuka

2005 Winners - Chad Cordero, Derrick Turnbow,Huston Street, Todd Jones, Bob Wickman

2004 Winners - Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jose Mesa, Shingo Takatsu

2003 Winners - Eric Gagne, Tim Worrell, Joe Borowski, Guillermo Mota
2002 Winners - Eric Gagne, Juan Acevedo, Byung-Hyun Kim, Octavio Dotel
2001 Winners - Byung-Hyun Kim, Jeff Zimmerman, Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa
2000 Winners - Keith Foulke, Robb Nen, Gabe White
1999 Winners - Scott Williamson, Billy Koch, John Rocker

 

LVPs - Heath Bell, Jordan Walden, Brandon League, John Axford

 

Bell's projection: 4-5, 39 Sv, 3.29 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 65 K in 68 1/3 IP
Bell's 2012 stats: 4-5, 19 Sv, 5.09 ERA, 1.555 WHIP, 59 K in 63 2/3 IP

 

Walden's projection: 3-4, 37 Sv, 2.81 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, 70 K in 64 IP

Walden's 2012 stats: 3-2, 1 Sv, 3.46 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, 48 K in 39 IP

 

League's projection: 4-5, 34 Sv, 3.04 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 62 K in 68 IP

League's 2012 stats: 2-6, 15 Sv, 3.13 ERA, 1.361 WHIP, 54 K in 72 IP

 

Axford's projection: 4-4, 38 Sv, 2.58 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, 79 K in 69 2/3 IP

Axford's 2012 stats: 5-8, 35 Sv, 4.67 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 93 K in 69 1/3 IP

 

Obviously, Bell was a bust. Axford still got his saves and strikeouts, but he was a liability in ERA and WHIP in the process. Walden lost his gig after just one blown save and never seemed to redeem himself in Mike Scioscia's mind, though he was effective aside from the month he missed in the second half. League was yanked from the closer's role in Seattle and traded prior to the deadline. He excelled after getting another chance with the Dodgers due to Kenley Jansen's heart troubles.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Sean Marshall, Carlos Marmol, Jose Valverde, Alfredo Aceves

2011 Losers - Matt Thornton, Joakim Soria, Ryan Franklin, Neftali Feliz

2010 Losers -Chad Qualls, Jonathan Broxton, Trevor Hoffman, Bobby Jenks

2009 Losers - B.J. Ryan, Brad Lidge, Brandon Morrow, Matt Capps

2008 Losers - Jason Isringhausen, Manuel Corpas, J.J. Putz,Huston Street

2007 Losers - Tom Gordon, Salomon Torres, Jorge Julio, Bob Wickman

2006 Losers - Derrick Turnbow, Brad Lidge, Ryan Dempster, Armando Benitez

2005 Losers - Danny Kolb, Danny Graves, Guillermo Mota, Keith Foulke

2004 Losers - Arthur Rhodes, Joe Borowski, Shawn Chacon, David Riske

2003 Losers - Billy Koch, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Armando Benitez, Jose Mesa
2002 Losers - Keith Foulke, Scott Strickland, Armando Benitez, Antonio Alfonseca
2001 Losers - Todd Jones, John Rocker, Billy Koch, Dave Veres
2000 Losers - Bob Howry, Scott Williamson, John Rocker, Billy Wagner
1999 Losers - Rod Beck, Jeff Montgomery, Rick Aguilera, Gregg Olson

 


continue story »
Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter @matthewpouliot.
Email :Matthew Pouliot



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