Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

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Mining For Cole

Sunday, June 09, 2013


This week was set to see the major league debuts of two of the game's top five pitching prospects, but a rainout had to go and push back the Mets' Zack Wheeler until next week, when he's expected to debut in the June 17-20 series against the Braves. At least the Pirates' Gerrit Cole is still slated to pitch Tuesday against the Giants.

 

Cole's arrival seemed unlikely just a week or two ago, what with Charlie Morton (Tommy John surgery) and James McDonald (shoulder) slated to return from the disabled list this month. And then both Jeanmar Gomez and Wandy Rodriguez left their starts last week with forearm injuries.

 

It's going to be interesting to see how the Pirates play this going forward if all of their starters prove healthy. Francisco Liriano has been dominant, and A.J. Burnett and Rodriguez are assured spots. Jeff Locke would seem to nominally be the fourth starter, based on his 5-1 record and 2.45 ERA so far. That would leave just one spot for Cole, Morton, McDonald and Gomez. McDonald is probably going to end up bullpen bound in that scenario, at least for a bit. The Pirates could have room for both Cole and Morton for a little while, depending on what happens with Rodriguez.

 

Cole, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft, will make his debut after going 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA, 47/28 K/BB and just four homers allowed in 68 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis. Three of those homers came in a single start last month. He pitched 14 scoreless innings in his last two outings. The surprise is Cole's modest strikeout rate. He certainly has swing-and-miss stuff; he occasionally touches 100 mph with his fastball and possesses a hard slider and a decent change. Last year, he fanned 136 in 132 innings.

 

Despite the strikeout total, there's no arguing with the results this year. He struggled some with walks in April, but he's been better there lately (13 BB in 44 2/3 IP since the beginning of May). Right-handers have hit just .144 against him. In Pittsburgh, he'll be able to take advantage of a forgiving ballpark and a strong outfield defense. He possesses perhaps the highest ceiling of any pitcher to debut this year, with the caveat that he just hasn't been as dominant as one would like given his stuff and pedigree. It'll be worth taking a chance on him in all fantasy formats, even though he may well end up back in the minors later this month.

 

Now back to Wheeler. Unlike with Cole, it's pretty close to a certainty that Wheeler is in the rotation for the rest of the season, or at least until he hits his innings limit. The 23-year-old Wheeler was the sixth overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Giants, and the Mets got him two years ago in return for Carlos Beltran. This year, he's posted a 4.14 ERA in Triple-A, which doesn't sound very impressive until one factors in that he's been pitching in Las Vegas. It's a horrendous environment for pitchers, and Wheeler has amassed a 5.88 ERA and given up six homers in five starts there. On the road, he has a 2.92 ERA and just two homers allowed in seven outings. Overall, he's struck out 66 and walked 25 in 63 innings.

 

Wheeler doesn't quite have Cole's velocity, but he throws his fastball in the 95-mph range, and he has better feel for his slider and changeup than Cole does. Command can be an issue. He's averaged just 5.25 innings per start this year, which is partly due to some higher pitch counts and partly because the Mets want him to pitch into September. Last year, he was right at six innings per start, throwing 149 innings (in 25 starts) in all. He should be able to go beyond that to 170 innings or so this year.

 

I'm not wild about Wheeler's fantasy prospects for this year; he's going to be a 5-6 inning pitcher on a bad Mets team, which should make victories hard to come by. The shorter starts will also diminish his strikeout totals. I don't expect he'll make the same kind of impact Matt Harvey did last year, though for the long term, that duo could prove to be one of the majors' best one-two punches. He'll still be worth a flier in shallow leagues, but I'd take Cole first and I wouldn't drop a reliable starter for him.

 

Biogenesis

 

- I'm not going to spend an enormous number of words on the possibilities of 50- or 100-game suspensions for Ryan Braun, Nelson Cruz, Jhonny Peralta and others. My guess is that they won't materialize, at least not during the season. It's just a guess, and Braun owners should certainly be worried about the repercussions. But MLB would essentially be declaring war on the MLBPA if it tries to issue mass suspensions without positive tests, and I don't see how that benefits anyone.

 

AL Notes (Rotoworld MLB news - Rotoworld on twitter - Matthew Pouliot on twitter)

 

- The Detroit Tigers invested $80 million in Anibal Sanchez over the winter, even though he has a lengthy history of shoulder problems. Now he's experiencing shoulder stiffness. That doesn't necessarily spell disaster -- all early indications are that it's a mild problem -- but it baffles me that the immediate response wasn't to put him on the DL. Instead, they're having him skip one start and taking a wait-and-see approach. This is a team that 5 1/2 games up in a division that presents no real challengers. The Tigers aren't playing to get to October; they're playing to win in October. On what planet does it make any sense to have Sanchez start next weekend? Rest him and get it right.

 

- After living with Erick Aybar in the leadoff spot for couple of weeks too many, the Angels decided they couldn't take it anymore Saturday and moved Mike Trout back there, even though they have Peter Bourjos (hamstring) coming off the DL as soon as Monday. It seems unlikely that the plan calls for Trout and new No. 2 hitter Josh Hamilton to return to their old roles after just two days, so Bourjos will probably hit low in the order upon returning, making him a weaker play in mixed leagues.

 

As for Hamilton, the switch should prove beneficial. I don't buy the idea that he'll get many more fastballs hitting ahead of Albert Pujols -- the goal remains to get him out, even if it means letting Trout take second on a breaking ball once in a while -- but he'll get more at-bats and more runs scored as a No. 2 hitter.

 

- With Luke Scott and Kelly Johnson having cooled off of late, the time seems just about right for Wil Myers to get his chance in right field for the Rays. His late May surge has spilled over into June, as he's hit .387 with three homers in his first seven games of the month for Triple-A Durham.

 

- I find this kind of weird: on May 26, the Rays' Sean Rodriguez homered and walked against the Yankees to raise his OPS to .803. He hasn't gotten a start or had more than one at-bat in a game in two weeks since. Maybe he'll be the casualty when Myers debuts.

 

- The White Sox's Hector Santiago had been struggling since being shifted back to the pen, but he impressed Sunday against the A's in his return to the rotation. He's due to stay there at least through the All-Star break after Jake Peavy's unfortunate rib injury. He makes for an excellent play in AL-only leagues and a decent spot starter in mixed leagues. He's certainly worth using with the Astros, Twins and Mets next on the schedule.

 

- If Vernon Wells goes 3-for-20 with a homer and four RBI in his next handful of games, he'll have the same exact line this year that he finished with for the Angels last year. Of course, that would actually mean picking up his pace, as he's currently 3-for-29 with no homers and one RBI during June. The Yankees might start giving more of his at-bats to Lyle Overbay, and his struggles are good news for Ichiro Suzuki, not that Suzuki is doing much anything for fantasy owners while going 1-for-3 or 1-for-4 every night. While Suzuki's average is on the rise again, he hasn't homered or stolen a base in a month.

 

- Astros center fielder Justin Maxwell (hand) went 0-for-13 with six strikeouts in the first four games of his rehab assignment, so it doesn't seem likely that the team will be quick to activate him early in the week. Either Jimmy Paredes or Trevor Crowe will be dropped once Maxwell is ready to return. Crowe is nothing if not expendable, but Paredes is hitting just .205/.259/.295 in his 78 at-bats so far and the Astros may prefer he play regularly in the minors than make two or three starts per week in right field.

 

- The Royals' Jarrod Dyson (ankle) is in the same boat as Maxwell, having gone 0-for-8 in the first two games of his rehab assignment. David Lough has done nice work with Dyson sidelined, hitting .293/.317/.431 in 58 at-bats, but that probably won't be enough to allow him to retain his roster spot. The alternative to sending down Lough would be for the Royals to release Jeff Francoeur, which isn't going to happen. Dyson should return as the Royals' center fielder against right-handers, with Francoeur continuing to play primarily against lefties and Lorenzo Cain rotating between right and center.

 

- It's pretty ridiculous that the Royals have kept Mike Moustakas around as a part-time player rather than send him down to Triple-A and give him a chance to hit again. They might as well just let Miguel Tejada start at third base for a two or three weeks and see what he can do.

 

- Jeremy Bonderman had a nice showing Friday against the Yankees, but the Mariners starter I'm waiting for is Erasmo Ramirez. The 23-year-old righty pitched seven scoreless innings, striking out seven, for Triple-A Tacoma in his third minor league start Saturday. He's due to pitch at least once more in Triple-A, but he should make his Mariners season debut soon afterwards, perhaps as a replacement for Aaron Harang. Ramirez's elbow is still a bit of a question mark after he was limited at the end of the spring and the first two months of the season, but he has the talent to be one of the AL's top 15 or 20 starters right away.

 

- I'm still a Kevin Gausman believer, and in AL-only leagues, I'd stick with him for as long as the Orioles do. However, mixed leaguers can probably move on, at least for now. His next four starts will come against the Red Sox, Tigers, Indians and Yankees, so it's going to be quite a chore for him to lower his ERA.

 

- Josh Lindblom will get the initial start Monday for the Rangers after Alexi Ogando's shoulder setback, but depending on how that goes, the team could go to Martin Perez afterwards. Perez has looked good for Triple-A Round Rock, allowing just three runs over 19 innings in his last three starts. He'd be a more intriguing option in AL-only leagues than Lindblom.

 

- The Red Sox got Shane Victorino (hamstring) back on Saturday, and Will Middlebrooks (back) should follow within a few days. He homered in two of his first four games on his rehab assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket. It sounds as though Pedro Ciriaco could be cut loose to make room for Middlebrooks, with hard-hitting Jose Iglesias sticking around as a utilityman.

 

- Austin Jackson (hamstring) could rejoin Detroit's lineup on Friday, but it's not enough of a sure thing to make him worth playing in AL-only leagues this week.

 

- The Twins' Trevor Plouffe (calf) will begin his rehab assignment Monday, and he should come off the disabled list on Friday, the first day that he's eligible.


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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter @matthewpouliot.
Email :Matthew Pouliot



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