Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

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2014 Starter Rankings

Monday, July 22, 2013


Here are some very preliminary 2014 starter rankings for your perusal. Try not to take the lists all too seriously; I haven't actually done projections for any of these players and many, many changes will be in store for the first official rankings in January.

 

These aren't true keeper rankings, since only the 2014 season is being taken into consideration here. But if you're looking to make trades in keeper leagues in the coming weeks, I hope this piece will help you along.

 

 

Follow us at @Rotoworld_BB and @matthewpouliot on Twitter.

 

 

Click to see other preliminary 2014 rankings:

Top 300 | SP | RP | OF | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | C | DH

 

 

 

2014 Starting pitcher Rankings

 

 

 

  • I'm pretty sure I'll have Kershaw at the top again next year. The rest of the top 12 could get jumbled again. Verlander could come in as high as No. 2 if his velocity comes back, but right now, I have him towards the bottom of the top tier. King Felix is fascinating; he has his highest ever K rate and swing-and-miss rate this year, even though his velocity has continued to decline. He's looking like the AL's best pitcher right now.

 

  • Shields is nearly a lock to have his option exercised by the Royals, so the top free agent starters look like Garza, Kuroda, Josh Johnson, Burnett, Hughes, Ervin Santana, Lincecum, Tim Hudson, De La Rosa and Colon, with Halladay and Chris Carpenter as wild cards. Lester probably won't be in the mix; even though he's been a disappointment, his $13 million option is likely to be exercised by the Red Sox.

 

  • Just for fun, here's the breakdown of the 150 starters by team. I'm including Shields and Lester with their current teams, but not Halladay, Jimenez, Rodriguez or Vogelsong, since their options aren't as assured of being picked up.

 

7 - Cardinals, Diamondbacks

6 - Athletics

5 - Braves, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Tigers, White Sox

4 - Brewers, Mariners, Marlins, Nationals, Padres

3 - Astros, Blue Jays, Indians, Phillies, Royals

2 - Angels, Giants, Yankees

1 - Rockies, Twins

 

Some notable teams at the bottom of the list. The Yankees should be able to keep Kuroda, and they'll want one more starter to replace Hughes. If they pull that off and Pettitte comes back, that'd leave one spot for Pineda, Ivan Nova and David Phelps. The Giants need to decide on Vogelsong's $6.5 million option and replace Lincecum and Zito. Chad Gaudin is a free agent, too, so even if he maintains his surprising success, he can't be penciled in for 2014. The Angels owe Joe Blanton $7.5 million next year, so he'll likely rejoin Weaver and Wilson in the rotation. They're going to have to buy one starter, if not two.

 

  • Cuban defector Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is a mystery to me, but he had to be in there somewhere. I slotted him in at No. 85 for now. He's expected to sign with a team within the next week or two.

 

 

2014SPTeam2013July
1 Clayton Kershaw Dodgers 1 1
2 Stephen Strasburg Nationals 3 7
3 Matt Harvey Mets 44 13
4 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 10 2
5 Felix Hernandez Mariners 8 6
6 Cole Hamels Phillies 4 11
7 David Price Rays 5 17
8 Yu Darvish Rangers 16 4
9 Cliff Lee Phillies 6 5
10 Justin Verlander Tigers 2 3
11 Madison Bumgarner Giants 13 9
12 Matt Moore Rays 22 19
13 Gio Gonzalez Nationals 9 8
14 Max Scherzer Tigers 23 10
15 James Shields * 12 12
16 Shelby Miller Cardinals 78 31
17 Matt Cain Giants 7 14
18 Jose Fernandez Marlins 86 74
19 Chris Sale White Sox 19 16
20 Jordan Zimmermann Nationals 24 18
21 Zack Greinke Dodgers 14 21
22 Mat Latos Reds 25 15
23 Mike Minor Braves 42 26
24 Clay Buchholz Red Sox 52 30
25 Jeff Samardzija Cubs 29 20
26 R.A. Dickey Blue Jays 15 36
27 Jered Weaver Angels 11 28
28 Hiroki Kuroda   32 22
29 Johnny Cueto Reds 21 62
30 Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers 31 24
31 Alex Cobb Rays 38 57
32 C.J. Wilson Angels 27 37
33 Julio Teheran Braves 51 33
34 Matt Garza   45 23
35 Homer Bailey Reds 48 45
36 Patrick Corbin Diamondbacks 129 29
37 Jeremy Hellickson Rays 34 32
38 CC Sabathia Yankees 17 35
39 Lance Lynn Cardinals 41 25
40 Kris Medlen Braves 18 34
41 Derek Holland Rangers 72 39
42 Gerrit Cole Pirates 120 65
43 Hisashi Iwakuma Mariners 74 27
44 Anibal Sanchez Tigers 53 41
45 Josh Johnson   36 43
46 Jarrod Parker Athletics 43 48
47 Andrew Cashner Padres 75 59
48 Brandon Beachy Braves 133 77
49 Jake Peavy White Sox 37 52
50 Justin Masterson Indians 89 53
51 Roy Halladay * 26 143
52 Jon Lester * 20 38
53 Doug Fister Tigers 63 40
54 A.J. Griffin Athletics 83 51
55 Erasmo Ramirez Mariners 64 67
56 Yovani Gallardo Brewers 30 42
57 A.J. Burnett   50 44
58 Tommy Milone Athletics 33 46
59 Edwin Jackson Cubs 46 69
60 Mike Leake Reds 88 47
61 Michael Wacha Cardinals 148 97
62 Brett Anderson Athletics 28 134
63 Rick Porcello Tigers 68 82
64 Tony Cingrani Reds 105 RP 64
65 Phil Hughes   73 87
66 Zack Wheeler Mets 160 75
67 Tim Lincecum   47 70
68 Francisco Liriano Pirates 91 49
69 Chris Archer Rays 127 123
70 Travis Wood Cubs 158 60
71 Jhoulys Chacin Rockies 93 66
72 Kyle Lohse Brewers 60 68
73 Chris Tillman Orioles 99 71
74 Alexi Ogando Rangers 49 84
75 Ervin Santana   97 54
76 Trevor Cahill Diamondbacks 58 63
77 Tim Hudson   62 55
78 John Lackey Red Sox 145 56
79 Jacob Turner Marlins 135 108
80 Jason Vargas   55 95
81 Ian Kennedy Diamondbacks 39 80
82 Jose Quintana White Sox 69 79
83 Cory Luebke Padres 132 NR
84 Jorge De La Rosa   131 104
85 Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez   NR NR
86 Ryan Dempster Red Sox 82 61
87 Felix Doubront Red Sox 115 93
88 Miguel Gonzalez Orioles 117 81
89 Bartolo Colon   124 50
90 Wandy Rodriguez * 71 86
91 Kyle Kendrick Phillies 108 76
92 Dan Haren   35 120
93 Michael Pineda Yankees 149 100
94 Brandon McCarthy Diamondbacks 61 101
95 John Danks White Sox 114 115
96 Brandon Morrow Blue Jays 40 137
97 Bud Norris Astros 171 92
98 Wade Miley Diamondbacks 66 88
99 Scott Baker   137 NR
100 Dan Straily Athletics 139 109
101 Kevin Gausman Orioles 152 129
102 Hector Santiago White Sox 121 114
103 Ross Detwiler Nationals 77 89
104 Wei-Yin Chen Orioles 80 91
105 Corey Kluber Indians 213 99
106 Colby Lewis   122 113
107 Jon Niese Mets 59 130
108 Nathan Eovaldi Marlins 165 105
109 Jeff Locke Pirates 164 72
110 Chris Carpenter   NR NR
111 Paul Maholm   94 58
112 Jaime Garcia Cardinals 54 NR
113 Scott Feldman   100 85
114 Jeremy Hefner Mets 153 139
115 Bronson Arroyo   119 83
116 Kyle Gibson Twins 178 98
117 Josh Beckett Dodgers 56 NR
118 Ubaldo Jimenez * 123 111
119 Jeremy Guthrie Royals 95 90
120 Andy Pettitte   57 73
121 Matt Harrison Rangers 79 NR
122 Tyler Skaggs Diamondbacks 157 NR
123 Carlos Martinez Cardinals 203 145
124 Ricky Nolasco   116 94
125 Martin Perez Rangers 233 96
126 Jordan Lyles Astros 198 126
127 Sonny Gray Athletics 263 NR
128 Dillon Gee Mets 96 125
129 Jake Arrieta Cubs 143 NR
130 Henderson Alvarez Marlins 112 131
131 Carlos Villanueva Cubs 103 132
132 Jake Westbrook Cardinals 126 112
133 Wily Peralta Brewers 134 NR
134 Robbie Erlin Padres 204 103
135 Zach Britton Orioles 140 141
136 Taijuan Walker Mariners 251 NR
137 Alex Wood Braves NR NR
138 Danny Duffy Royals 214 NR
139 Chad Billingsley Dodgers 90 NR
140 Marco Estrada Brewers 81 127
141 Archie Bradley Diamondbacks NR NR
142 Ryan Vogelsong * 67 122
143 Jason Hammel   65 119
144 Trevor Bauer Indians 150 NR
145 Shaun Marcum   92 128
146 Mark Buehrle Blue Jays 111 117
147 Jarred Cosart Astros 336 NR
148 Eric Stults Padres 182 78
149 Jameson Taillon Pirates 228 NR
150 James McDonald Pirates 85 NR


Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter @matthewpouliot.
Email :Matthew Pouliot



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