Eno Sarris

Saves and Steals

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Thinking Ahead to the Deadline

Wednesday, July 24, 2013


 

Tier 4: Question marks (7) (AKA: The "Boston Starting Pitcher" Tier.)

 

Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Jose Veras, Houston Astros
Steve Cishek, Miami Marlins
Joaquin Benoit, Detroit Tigers
Kevin Gregg, Chicago Cubs

 

With Clay Buchholz sidelined until maybe even as late as September, the Red Sox are down a starter. They've been filling in, but they were rumored in on Matt Garza, and it just seems obvious that they should plug any holes they can… at a reasonable price. Since Garza's asking price was too high, it's more likely that the Red Sox buy a lower-profile starting pitcher than someone like Cliff Lee. Jake Peavy makes more sense, or maybe even Yovani Gallardo if the price is really low.

 

And these closers, even if they have question marks, probably did you fine -- because their prices were low. In fact, my teams are littered with these guys. They're waiver-wire pros and late-inning throws that have already turned in enough production to make them wins. It's just that they're no lock to continue doing so.

 

In fact, other than the top three, they could each lose their job at the trade deadline. The Astros have proven before that they'll trade any reliever at the drop of a dime, even a signing like Jose Veras that has worked out as well as it has. I'd look for them to get a younger, cheaper reliever back in the deal and install them at closer, or see if Hector Ambriz can do it ugly for a while. If Jose Cisnero could find the plate, he'd be in the mix. It's A.J. Ramos if the Marlins find a Steve Cishek buyer, and Joaquin Benoit faces a risk from most newcomers based on his fragility. Behind Kevin Gregg, it's most likely Pedro Strop -- because that's what the team said -- but Blake Parker has been the better pitcher. The team is right to point out that Strop has closer velocity and stuff, but he also has a career walk rate over five per nine. Parker, even at 92 mph, deserves to be on this list of potential winners at the deadline.

 

The top three have a bit of risk, too. Casey Janssen had some trouble over the All-Star break and was even removed for Steve Delabar once, but he may have righted the ship since, with two straight scoreless innings with four strikeouts and one walk. His upside is diminished by his strikeout rate, but not completely whipped. A few more saves and Janssen will begin rising in the ranks again. We know the Rodney risk. With Chris Perez, the velocity is still down and though I don't quite put him in the injury risk class with Jonathan Papelbon and Rafael Soriano, I sort of do.

 

Tier 5: Rollercoaster rides (6) (AKA: The "Baltimore Starting Pitcher" Tier.)

 

Jim Henderson (first chair), John Axford (second chair), Milwaukee Brewers
Tom Wilhelmsen (first chair), Yoervis Medina  (second chair), Oliver Perez (third chair), Seattle Mariners
Mark Melancon (first chair), Tony Watson (second chair), Pittsburgh Pirates
Rex Brothers (first chair), Colorado Rockies
Brad Ziegler (first chair), J.J. Putz (second chair), Arizona Diamondbacks
Huston Street (first chair), Luke Gregerson (second chair), San Diego Padres

 

For a team as good as the Orioles have been this year (third-best record in the AL, fifth-best run differential), Baltimore boasts a bit of a troublesome starting rotation. Jason Hammel reverted back to Colorado's version, and the peripherals on Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez suggest that worse days are ahead. Not one of the three has an above-average strikeout rate or ground-ball rate, for example. The problem is that with Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman still in development, it seems like maybe the Orioles will be content with Scott Feldman. Their most recent acquisition does at least come with an above-average grounder rate.

 

We've been waiting on you Jim Henderson. So long, that it would be upsetting to see John Axford get it, honestly. But Axford is also under team control and has really settled down after a tough start to the year. His walk rate is now the second-best of his career now, finally. But his homer rate only matches last year's -- even if he hasn't given one up since the first of May -- and that's why his ERA and WHIP are bloated. Hendo had the eighth, though.

 

We'll put Tom Wilhelmsen over the closers that are 'temporary,' and we never really liked Oliver Perez in the role here anyway, but The Kaiser (or the Bartender) still been hittable recently. In his last five saves, he's given up five hits and two walks against only three strikeouts. Hard to believe for a guy that still throws 96 with a hammer curve and is still getting the swinging strikes that he used to. But the command of his pitches comes and goes, and that gives him a considerable amount of risk. He and Henderson are ready to move out of the tier with a week full of saves, though.

 

Mark Melancon is an immediate pick up in all leagues. The forearm strain is absolutely more upsetting than Betancourt's insides, and could easily mean Tommy John. If it does, Melancon could close into next year. There are some decent lefties behind him, and yes Bryan Morris has some promise, but Melancon is doing what he's always done, and just the slightest bit of luck has shown people that he was good all along. His strengths lie in having great control, getting ground balls, and adding strikeouts at just about an average rate for a closer on a cut fastball / curveball mix. Even if a few more home runs come back in, his underlying rates are strong.

 

We're putting Rex Brothers down here, but not even listing a second chair, because it's Brothers for now. But should he be higher? Obviously, he's got nice K, but Betancourt might only be gone a week or two since his disabled list stint was retroactive to July 25th. But hamstring, then appendicitis… Betancourt's an old man on an expiring contract, and if this were a dynasty league ranking, Brothers would leap a tier (or two).

 

Here are the reasons I don't believe in Brad Ziegler as a long-term option in Arizona: 1) His strikeout rate. It's not bad, it would be the worst in baseball at the back end of a pen. 2) His delivery. The submarine works, I'm not saying it doesn't. But it does lead to radically different sight lines for players of different handedness, and in his case, that means lefties love him. Over his career, Ziegler has walked more lefties than he has struck out, and he has given up four times as many home runs to lefties. This year, he's cut his walks against lefties, and a career-low batting average on balls in play against lefties is also helping, but the preponderance of the evidence is that he's a ROOGY. J.J. Putz isn't quite J.J. Putz yet -- four walks in his last three appearances is not Putzian -- but his velocity is up a tick and he's keeping the slates clean and getting holds. Putz is a decent saves prospect still.

 

Huston Street: still think he's hurt, although five strikeouts in his last four outings and better velocity has arched an eyebrow of mine.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Injured

 

Jason Motte (elbow), St. Louis Cardinals
Joel Hanrahan (forearm), Boston Red Sox
Kyuji Fujikawa (elbow), Chicago Cubs
Sergio Santos (elbow), Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Madson (elbow), Los Angeles Angels
Jason Grilli (forearm), Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Betancourt (appendicitis), Colorado Rockies

 

Early reports suggest a couple weeks for both Jason Grilli and Rafael Betancourt. But they're early reports.

 

The Deposed

 

Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Mitchell Boggs, St. Louis Cardinals
Brandon League, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Bailey, Boston Red Sox

 

Andrew Bailey is now undergoing surgery for his shoulder and will remain deposed. The trade deadline will probably change this list some.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

The Steals Department

 

The Marlins are crazy. There was not a thing wrong with what Marcell Ozuna and Derek Dietrich were doing in the big leagues this year. Well, Dietrich was striking out a bit much, but he was showing his power, and with a little more batted ball luck, he would have looked like a competent second baseman in the majors. Ozuna was pretty much doing what the team should have hoped he could do -- he could have struck out way more than he was, for example, and was above-average in most facets of the game.

 

But that doesn't matter. Down they go, and up come two more youngsters. Who aren't really ready. But here they are! Starting their arbitration clocks early! Both Jake Marisnick (22 years old) and Christian Yelich (21) have reasons to be excited about their futures. Marisnick has power and speed and can play center. Yelich has a smooth left-handed swing, can play center now, and should add some speed to his power and patience while he's young. But both of them might strike out too much right now, both of them are young, and both of them could have marinated a while longer. Since the Marlins are playing this out like a yo-yo, it's hard to trust that they are great acquisitions. On the other hand, if they catch fire, they may just play the season out and provide great value to those of you looking for power and speed in the outfield. Might as well chase the upside if you're looking in deeper mixed leagues.

 

Deeper dudes should probably take a look at Jonathan Villar on the Astros, who has taken the job at short. He's even more of a strikeout risk than the Marlins' pair, and he doesn't have the same power upside, but he does have a little pop, and he stole 31 bases in Triple-A before getting the call-up. If you can stomach a bad batting average for your speed -- and you probably can, since you're in a deep league -- take a look at him.



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Eno Sarris is an editor and writer at FanGraphs.com. You can find his work gathered in one place at and enosarris.com. Follow his misadventures in writing on Twitter as well.
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