Eno Sarris

Saves and Steals

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The Fields Aren't Quite Barren

Wednesday, September 11, 2013


 

Tier 4: Question Marks (7) (AKA: The "Jarrod Parker" Tier.)

 

Ernesto Frieri, Anaheim Angels
Rex Brothers, Colorado Rockies
Danny Farquhar, Seattle Mariners
Huston Street, San Diego Padres
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Chris Perez, Cleveland Indians
Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays

 

Jarrod Parker has a beautiful changeup. I've always felt that way. He throws 92, and he has good control. He's not a fly ball guy. So why the hate? Despite an above-average swinging strike rate, Parker just can't seem to strike batters out at a league-average rate. He's almost 400 innings into this career and has fewer than seven strikeouts per nine. In fact, his peripherals seem to suggest an ERA over four is in the cards. His home park will help to calm things down, but he's not going to be a great road start if this is how his peripherals are going to look going forward. Chris Tillman might be even worse -- his swinging strike rate is below average, he doesn't get ground balls, his control is meh, and his home park isn't great for pitchers. Wait. Maybe Tillman should be here.

 

I considered moving Rex Brothers up to the next tier, but it's not like he's getting many more save opportunities than Addison Reed, for example. Both of them have one save in the last two weeks. Both have two opportunities. And while Reed has excellent control, Rex Brothers has walked four in the last three outings (two innings) against two strikeouts. And that's a risk with Brothers, who has struggled with control his whole career. On the whole, Danny Farquhar has been excellent with his new velocity, but moving him after he blew a save against Houston, of all teams, seems like poor timing. Really, it's Ernesto Frieri that is closest to ascending. He's walked two guys since the beginning of August, and that's progress for him. He might have even put himself in the mix to continue closing next year. And while Jonathan Papelbon's velocity chart screams injury, it's Huston Street's that looks like he's gotten healthy. Strange days. 

 

Tier 5: Rollercoaster Rides (6) (AKA: The "Jeff Locke" Tier.)

 

Brad Ziegler (first chair), J.J. Putz (second chair), Arizona Diamondbacks
Mark Melancon (first chair), Jason Grilli (second chair), Pittsburgh Pirates
LaTroy Hawkins (first chair), Gonzalez Germen (second chair), New York Mets
Kevin Gregg (first chair), Pedro Strop (second chair), Blake Parker (third chair), Chicago Cubs
Josh Fields (first chair), Chia-Jen Lo (second chair), Kevin Chapman (third chair), Houston Astros

 

Jeff Locke doesn't do anything right by the peripherals. His swinging strike rate is below-average. His walk rate is the worst in the league among qualified starters. Well, okay, his ground-ball rate is above-average. But he's gotten lucky on home runs, too. Everything about his peripherals screams "four ERA and a bad WHIP" while he's just shown the bad WHIP so far this season. This guy won't be drafting that guy next season, is what I'm saying.

 

Brad Ziegler has developed a platoon-busting changeup, and I talked about it with him some last week. He thinks it's the main reason his platoon splits have ironed out a bit this year. J.J. Putz is dealing with a hole in his finger, and even if he comes back, has Ziegler given the team a reason to make the change? Both guys are with the team next year, too. Putz might not be worth waiting around for.

 

Jason Grilli is back, and his velocity is creeping up on where it used to be. But it's not there yet. And both the player and the manager are saying that he's not ready yet. On the other hand, grilled cheese was so good all year, and the team is headed to the postseason one way or the other, so the team is likely to put Grilli back in. But will it be this week or a few days before the season ends? Mark Melancon owners want to know, and I don't have an answer. I might hold him for another week, but if saves aren't that important to you, maybe it's time to move on to streaming starting pitchers instead. It's not like either pitcher was exceptionally sharp Tuesday night.

 

Gonzalez Germen was supposed to get some saves. Instead, nobody did.

 

Pedro Strop was supposed to get some saves. Instead, he got holds. He's still one of the last great saves speculation pickups out there. Despite his terrible walk rate. Just because the Cubs have to think about next year.

 

The Astros have a closer! Maybe! Probably! Josh Fields has 93+ mph velocity and good enough swinging strikes to be the closer, and his walk rate is better than Strop's. If the homers stop leaving the yard, he might even survive until next season. In the meantime, he's just your standard worst closer in the league.

 

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Injured

 

Jason Motte (elbow), St. Louis Cardinals
Joel Hanrahan (forearm), Boston Red Sox
Kyuji Fujikawa (elbow), Chicago Cubs
Rafael Betancourt (elbow), Colorado Rockies
Bobby Parnell (neck), New York Mets

 

Bobby Parnell got the surgery. That makes everyone.

 

The Deposed

 

Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
John Axford, Milwaukee Brewers
Mitchell Boggs, St. Louis Cardinals
Brandon League, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Bailey, Boston Red Sox
Jose Veras, Detroit Tigers
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Heath Bell, Arizona Diamondbacks

 

Still waiting on Kevin Gregg. Did Chia-Jen Lo actually own the role long enough to be considered Deposed? I think not.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

The Steals Department

 

Taking a look at the streaming situation this week, it looks like the Angels, Red Sox and Twins are the teams to target. Let's break this up into deep and shallow league speed streamers, shall we.

 

Probably the best speed-only shallow-league streamer is Jonathan Villar, who finishes the weekend against the Angels and Chris Iannetta, who is not good at throwing out base runners. Unfortunately, Villar is not good at making contact. Robbie Grossman is a better hitter, but a worse base-stealer, depending on your needs. The Yankees boast the ageless wonder Ichiro Suzuki, and if Brett Gardner is not on your wire, it's the future Hall of Famer that can give you the best combination of batting average and steals. (Villar is probably a true-talent .220 hitter.) The Twins head to the Rays late in the week and Brian Dozier may not be a great asset in batting average -- he hits too many pop-ups to have a good batting average on balls in play -- but he does have power and speed, and the Rays can't throw base runners out.

 

Deep leaguers are always screwed at this point in the season, when the wire is barren. If you can take a leap of faith on Jackie Bradley Jr., and hope that he takes most of the playing time with Jacoby Ellsbury in a boot, then you might have your best option. Alex Presley is getting some burn in the Twinkies' center field, and he has some speed. Otherwise you're stuck trying to figure out that Houston outfield. Maybe you take a chance on Brandon Barnes against a lefty, or L.J. Hoes, who is better all around. Good luck hunting.



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Eno Sarris is an editor and writer at FanGraphs.com. You can find his work gathered in one place at and enosarris.com. Follow his misadventures in writing on Twitter as well.
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