Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

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Fantasy MVPs & LVPs

Tuesday, October 01, 2013


It's the 15th annual edition of the fantasy MVPs and LVPs column. Awards are given to players that most over- or underperformed my preseason projections.  I tend to give injured players a break when it comes to LVPs.

 

I also have my real MVP/Cy Young/ROY choices below.

 

 

The Fantasy Most Valuable Players

 

 

Catchers


 

MVP - Jonathan Lucroy

Projection: .275/.328/.427, 13 HR, 48 R, 55 RBI, 4 SB in 426 AB

2013 stats: .280/.340/.455, 18 HR, 59 R, 82 RBI, 9 SB in 521 AB

 

Lucroy's OPS actually dipped 86 points from 2012, when he hit a fluky .320, but when injuries caused him to be moved up in the Milwaukee order, he thrived. The only "catchers" to drive in more runs were Mike Napoli and Victor Martinez, and Lucroy tied with Russell Martin for the position lead with nine steals, giving his value an extra boost.

 

Honorable Mention - Yadier Molina, Jason Castro, Wilin Rosario

2012 Winner - Wilin Rosario

2011 Winner - Alex Avila

2010 Winner - Buster Posey

2009 Winner - Joe Mauer

2008 Winner - Ryan Doumit

2007 Winner - Russell Martin

2006 Winner - Brian McCann

2005 Winner - Brandon Inge

2004 Winner - Craig Wilson

2003 Winner - Javy Lopez

2002 Winner - Eli Marrero

2001 Winner - Paul Lo Duca

2000 Winner - Charles Johnson

1999 Winner - Mike Sweeney

 

LVP - Jesus Montero

Projection: .276/.330/.458, 20 HR, 63 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB in 493 AB

2013 stats: .208/.264/.327, 3 HR, 6 R, 9 RBI, 0 SB in 101 AB

 

Pick a Montero, any Montero. I'll go with Jesus, since not only was he horrible, but he was a cheater, too. Since he did get in 26 games behind the plate this year, he'll remain catcher-eligible again next season, even though the Mariners seem to have given up on him there. He'll almost certainly have to prove himself in Triple-A before he gets another shot.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Miguel Montero, J.P. Arencibia, Buster Posey

2012 Loser - Carlos Santana

2011 Loser - Joe Mauer

2010 Loser - Matt Wieters

2009 Loser - Russell Martin

2008 Loser - Kenji Johjima

2007 Loser - Ramon Hernandez

2006 Loser - Javy Lopez

2005 Loser - Jason Kendall

2004 Loser - Mike Piazza

2003 Loser - Paul Lo Duca

2002 Loser - Charles Johnson

2001 Loser - Jason Kendall

2000 Loser - Michael Barrett

1999 Loser - Todd Hundley

 

 

Follow us at @Rotoworld_BB and @matthewpouliot on Twitter.

 

 

First Basemen/Designated Hitters

 

MVP - Chris Davis

Projection: .251/.308/.470, 29 HR, 75 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 530 AB

2013 stats: .286/.370/.634, 53 HR, 103 R, 138 RBI, 4 SB in 584 AB

 

I kind of wanted to stick Chris Davis in the outfield here just to get Paul Goldschmidt into the lineup, but that didn't seem quite right. Davis is this year's overall fantasy MVP, without a doubt. I wasn't sold on an encore after he hit 33 homers in his breakthrough 2012, not when it still came with a 169/37 K/BB ratio in 515 at-bats. This year, he struck out 199 times in 584 at-bats, but he also upped his walk rate and he proved to be much more than just a home run guy, collecting 42 doubles.

 

Honorable Mention - Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Moss, Freddie Freeman

2012 Winner - Adam LaRoche

2011 Winner - Mark Trumbo

2010 Winner - Joey Votto

2009 Winner - Kendrys Morales

2008 Winner - Aubrey Huff

2007 Winner - Carlos Pena

2006 Winner - Ryan Howard

2005 Winner - Derrek Lee

2004 Winner - Travis Hafner

2003 Winner - Carlos Delgado

2002 Winner - Derrek Lee

2001 Winner - Ryan Klesko

2000 Winner - Frank Thomas

1999 Winner - John Jaha

 

LVP - Ike Davis

Projection: .263/.350/.500, 33 HR, 88 R, 105 RBI, 1 SB in 562 AB

2013 stats: .205/.326/.334, 9 HR, 37 R, 33 RBI, 4 SB in 317 AB

 

I'll give Albert Pujols a break, given that he was playing on one leg for four months before shutting it down. Davis was even more of a disaster, hitting .161/.243/.253 before the Mets finally sent him down in mid-June. He was a much-improved player after returning, even getting all of the way up to .290/.468/.522 in 69 at-bats in August, but it was far too late to salvage his season, and he'd probably have claimed this spot even if not for the strained oblique that cost him the final month.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Albert Pujols, Anthony Rizzo, Adam LaRoche, Paul Konerko

2012 Loser - Eric Hosmer

2011 Loser - Adam Dunn

2010 Loser - Lance Berkman

2009 Loser - David Ortiz

2008 Loser - Travis Hafner

2007 Loser - Richie Sexson

2006 Loser - Todd Helton

2005 Loser - Todd Helton

2004 Loser - Jason Giambi

2003 Loser - Paul Konerko

2002 Loser - Tony Clark

2001 Loser - Mark McGwire

2000 Loser - Sean Casey

1999 Loser - Darin Erstad

 

 

Second Basemen

 

MVP - Matt Carpenter

Projection: .274/.357/.416, 11 HR, 71 R, 60 RBI, 5 SB in 514 AB

2013 stats: .318/.392/.481, 11 HR, 126 R, 78 RBI, 3 SB in 626 AB

 

Oddly enough, Carpenter decimated expectations while actually coming up a little shy of my home run (per at-bat) and steal projections. The 55 doubles helped a bit. It's the 126 runs scored that's mind blowing. I'm used to Cardinals leadoff men disappointing in that category -- the club's last leadoff man to reach the century mark was Vince Coleman in 1987. Of course, that wasn't even supposed to be Carpenter's role; Jon Jay started the season hitting leadoff.

 

Honorable Mention - Daniel Murphy, Jason Kipnis, Omar Infante

2012 Winner - Aaron Hill

2011 Winner - Ben Zobrist

2010 Winner - Rickie Weeks

2009 Winner - Aaron Hill

2008 Winner - Dustin Pedroia

2007 Winner - Brandon Phillips

2006 Winner - Dan Uggla

2005 Winner - Chone Figgins

2004 Winner - Mark Loretta

2003 Winner - Marcus Giles

2002 Winner - Alfonso Soriano

2001 Winner - Bret Boone

2000 Winner - Jose Vidro

1999 Winner - Roberto Alomar

 

LVP - Rickie Weeks

Projection: .257/.346/.443, 22 HR, 87 R, 64 RBI, 11 SB in 521 AB

2013 stats: .209/.306/.357, 10 HR, 40 R, 24 RBI, 7 SB in 350 AB

 

Weeks hit .355 with five homers in June. His next best month saw him bat .191 with two homers. The Brewers are surely ready to move on at this point, but they might have a tough time finding a taker as putrid as he looked before his season-ending hamstring injury in August.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Dustin Ackley, Dan Uggla, Jeff Keppinger

2012 Loser - Jemile Weeks

2011 Loser - Chone Figgins

2010 Loser - Aaron Hill

2009 Loser - Kelly Johnson

2008 Loser - Robinson Cano

2007 Loser - Josh Barfield

2006 Loser - Jorge Cantu

2005 Loser - Bret Boone

2004 Loser - Alfonso Soriano

2003 Loser - Roberto Alomar

2002 Loser - Roberto Alomar

2001 Loser - Edgardo Alfonzo

2000 Loser - Jose Offerman

1999 Loser - Delino DeShields

 

 

Third Basemen

 

MVP - Josh Donaldson

Projection: .245/.312/.420, 17 HR, 55 R, 58 RBI, 6 SB in 445 AB

2013 stats: .301/.384/.499, 24 HR, 89 R, 93 RBI, 5 SB in 579 AB

 

I really didn't see much upside with Donaldson; I projected him as an adequate regular, but nothing more. Instead, he was probably the AL's fourth best player. His K/BB ratio went from 4:1 to less than 3:2, and he ended up with 64 extra-base hits. Along the way, he went from batting seventh and eighth in the Oakland lineup to the second and third spots. I don't think he's a true .300 hitter, but he probably has some more 20-homer seasons in his future.

 

Honorable Mention - Manny Machado, Chris Johnson, Miguel Cabrera

2012 Winner - Chase Headley

2011 Winner - Jose Bautista

2010 Winner - Jose Bautista

2009 Winner - Mark Reynolds

2008 Winner - Jorge Cantu

2007 Winner - Ryan Braun

2006 Winner - Michael Cuddyer

2005 Winner - Morgan Ensberg

2004 Winner - Adrian Beltre

2003 Winner - Bill Mueller

2002 Winner - Aaron Boone

2001 Winner - Albert Pujols

2000 Winner - Troy Glaus

1999 Winner - Fernando Tatis

 

LVP - Pablo Sandoval

Projection: .306/.359/.502, 23 HR, 86 R, 89 RBI, 2 SB in 568 AB

2013 stats: .278/.341/.417, 14 HR, 52 R, 79 RBI, 0 SB in 525 AB

 

Maybe the fact that Sandoval is eligible for free agency after next season will convince him to lose some weight. He was a big disappointment in more ways than one this year, and his defense at third base is becoming a problem. I'm not writing him off, but he'll have to show quite a dedication to conditioning before I project him to hit .300 with 20 homers again.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Will Middlebrooks, David Freese, Brett Lawrie

2012 Loser - Mark Reynolds

2011 Loser - Pedro Alvarez

2010 Loser - Pablo Sandoval

2009 Loser - Garrett Atkins

2008 Loser - Chone Figgins

2007 Loser - Eric Chavez

2006 Loser - Hank Blalock

2005 Loser - Adrian Beltre

2004 Loser - Eric Hinske

2003 Loser - Edgardo Alfonzo

2002 Loser - Jeff Cirillo

2001 Loser - Tony Batista

2000 Loser - Vinny Castilla

1999 Loser - Ken Caminiti

 

 

Shortstops

 

MVP - Jean Segura

Projection: .269/.333/.343, 3 HR, 49 R, 39 RBI, 25 SB in 472 AB

2013 stats: .294/.329/.423, 12 HR, 74 R, 49 RBI, 44 SB in 588 AB

 

Since Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez couldn't stay healthy, Segura rated as the year's No. 1 fantasy shortstop, even with the Brewers' injuries holding him back. Imagine how many more runs scored and RBI he would have had if the Brewers had gotten more from Ryan Braun. Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Aramis Ramirez.

 

Honorable Mention - Brian Dozier, Jed Lowrie, Elvis Andrus

2012 Winner - Ian Desmond

2011 Winner - Asdrubal Cabrera

2010 Winner - Omar Infante

2009 Winner - Ben Zobrist

2008 Winner - Mike Aviles

2007 Winner - Hanley Ramirez

2006 Winner - Hanley Ramirez

2005 Winner - Felipe Lopez

2004 Winner - Carlos Guillen

2003 Winner - Edgar Renteria

2002 Winner - David Eckstein

2001 Winner - Rich Aurilia

2000 Winner - Jose Valentin

1999 Winner - Jay Bell

 

LVP - Starlin Castro

Projection: .295/.339/.448, 15 HR, 90 R, 70 RBI, 20 SB in 614 AB

2013 stats: .245/.284/.347, 10 HR, 59 R, 44 RBI, 9 SB in 666 AB

 

Congrats to Castro on leading the NL in outs made for a third straight year. I wonder if it still would have gone down like this if the Cubs didn't decide to give a 22-year-old with a questionable motor a $60 million contract in the summer of 2012. He didn't seem very motivated to improve before he was set for life. What is there to turn him around now?

 

Dishonorable Mention - Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Rutledge, Alcides Escobar

2012 Loser - Elvis Andrus

2011 Loser - Hanley Ramirez

2010 Loser - Yunel Escobar

2009 Loser - Jimmy Rollins

2008 Loser - Troy Tulowitzki

2007 Loser - Bill Hall

2006 Loser - Clint Barmes

2005 Loser - Kaz Matsui

2004 Loser - Angel Berroa

2003 Loser - Jose Hernandez

2002 Loser - Rich Aurilia

2001 Loser - Tony Womack

2000 Loser - Royce Clayton

1999 Loser - Royce Clayton

 


continue story »
Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter @matthewpouliot.
Email :Matthew Pouliot



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