Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

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Fantasy MVPs & LVPs

Tuesday, October 01, 2013


Outfielders

 

MVPs - Carlos Gomez, Yasiel Puig, Marlon Byrd

 

Gomez's projection: .247/.305/.410, 17 HR, 73 R, 66 RBI, 36 SB in 539 AB

Gomez's 2013 stats: .284/.338/.506, 24 HR, 80 R, 73 RBI, 40 SB in 536 AB

 

Puig's projection: .243/.287/.425, 6 HR, 24 R, 23 RBI, 8 SB in 181 AB

Puig's 2013 stats: .319/.391/.534, 19 HR, 66 R, 42 RBI, 11 SB in 382 AB

 

Byrd's projection: .265/.322/.390, 8 HR, 40 R, 42 RBI, 3 SB in 374 AB

Byrd's 2013 stats: .291/.336/.511, 24 HR, 75 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 532 AB

 

Gomez is in the same boat with Segura; he was a borderline top-five fantasy outfielder anyway, but he would have been even better with more support. Either way, he blew away my projection, which had him as the No. 46 outfielder. There were no real expectations for the other two, though Puig did flash his potential in spring training. Byrd, on the other end of the career spectrum, claimed he intended to retire if he failed to make the Mets as a non-roster player.

 

Honorable Mention - Hunter Pence, Alex Rios, Andrew McCutchen, Jayson Werth, Alfonso Soriano

2012 Winners - Mike Trout, Alex Rios, Adam Jones

2011 Winners - Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp, Melky Cabrera

2010 Winners - Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Angel Pagan

2009 Winners - Adam Lind, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Kemp

2008 Winners - Ryan Ludwick, Josh Hamilton, Nate McLouth

2007 Winners - Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Eric Byrnes

2006 Winners - Jermaine Dye, Gary Matthews Jr., Matt Holliday

2005 Winners - Grady Sizemore, Jason Bay, Andruw Jones

2004 Winners - Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew, Aaron Rowand, Jeromy Burnitz

2003 Winners - Gary Sheffield, Scott Podsednik, Vernon Wells

2002 Winners - Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Garret Anderson

2001 Winners - Ichiro Suzuki, Barry Bonds, Cliff Floyd

2000 Winners - Darin Erstad, Richard Hidalgo, John Vander Wal

1999 Winners - Brian Giles, Luis Gonzalez, Roger Cedeno

 

LVPs - Ryan Braun, B.J. Upton, Jason Heyward

 

Braun's projection: .311/.390/.562, 36 HR, 106 R, 111 RBI, 25 SB in 601 AB

Braun's 2013 stats: .298/.372/.498, 9 HR, 30 R, 38 RBI, 4 SB in 225 AB

 

Upton's projection: .263/.337/.467, 25 HR, 83 R, 84 RBI, 30 SB in 548 AB

Upton's 2013 stats: .184/.268/.289, 9 HR, 30 R, 26 RBI, 12 SB in 391 AB

 

Heyward's projection: .270/.356/.511, 32 HR, 109 R, 87 RBI, 21 SB in 575 AB

Heyward's 2013 stats: .254/.349/.427, 14 HR, 67 R, 38 RBI, 2 SB in 382 AB

 

I could have just listed Braun three times, but that wouldn't have been very fair to Upton. The third spot was a tougher call, given that Heyward, Matt Kemp and Giancarlo Stanton all missed time with injuries. Heyward, though, still would have fallen well short of expectations even if not for the fractured jaw. As for Josh Hamilton, well, I just wasn't very high on him from the start.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Kemp, Ichiro Suzuki, Josh Hamilton, Nick Markakis

2012 Losers - Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton, Delmon Young

2011 Losers - Carl Crawford, Alex Rios, Jason Heyward

2010 Losers - Matt Kemp, Adam Lind, Carlos Lee

2009 Losers - Manny Ramirez, B.J. Upton, Alfonso Soriano

2008 Losers - Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Carl Crawford

2007 Losers - Jason Bay, Andruw Jones, Jermaine Dye

2006 Losers - Jason Lane, Randy Winn, Scott Podsednik

2005 Losers - Carlos Beltran, Sammy Sosa, Corey Patterson

2004 Losers - Sammy Sosa, Marlon Byrd, Brian Giles

2003 Losers - Pat Burrell, Shawn Green, Larry Walker

2002 Losers - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Pierre, Richard Hidalgo

2001 Losers - Richard Hidalgo, Darin Erstad, Carl Everett

2000 Losers - Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran

1999 Losers - Jose Cruz Jr., Kenny Lofton, Ray Lankford

 

 

Starting Pitchers

 

MVPs - Hisashi Iwakuma, Max Scherzer, Jose Fernandez, Bartolo Colon, Matt Harvey

 

Iwakuma's projection: 12-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 141 K in 184 1/3 IP

Iwakuma's 2013 stats: 14-6, 2.66 ERA, 1.008 WHIP, 185 K in 219 2/3 IP

 

Scherzer's projection: 15-9, 3.26 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 211 K in 196 1/3 IP

Scherzer's 2013 stats: 21-3, 2.90 ERA, 0.970 WHIP, 240 K in 214 1/3 IP

 

Fernandez's projection: 9-9, 3.84 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 138 K in 152 1/3 IP

Fernandez's 2013 stats: 12-6, 2.19 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 187 K in 172 2/3 IP

 

Colon's projection: 9-9, 4.03 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 90 K in 154 IP

Colon's 2013 stats: 18-6, 2.65 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 117 K in 190 1/3 IP

 

Harvey's projection: 12-10, 3.74 ERA, 1.300 WHIP, 195 K in 187 2/3 IP

Harvey's 2013 stats: 9-5, 2.27 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, 191 K in 178 1/3 IP

 

Two of these guys were free agents last winter. The combined value of their contracts amounted to less than what CC Sabathia makes in a season. Iwakuma took a two-year, $14 million contract to stay with the Mariners, while Colon ended up with a one-year, $3 million deal that included a couple of million in incentives. ... Harvey claims the fifth spot despite making his final start on Aug. 24.If Patrick Corbin's season had ended at the same time, he probably would have had the spot instead. Corbin was 13-3 with a 2.45 ERA on that date. His strikeout total and WHIP didn't measure up to Harvey's, but he came considerably cheaper on draft day, which would have given him the edge. Alas, Corbin remained in the rotation and went 1-5 with an 8.00 ERA in his last seven starts.

 

Honorable Mention - Anibal Sanchez, Clayton Kershaw, Patrick Corbin, Shelby Miller

2012 Winners - R.A. Dickey, Kyle Lohse, Gio Gonzalez, Kris Medlen, Chris Sale

2011 Winners - Justin Verlander, Ian Kennedy, James Shields, Clayton Kershaw, Doug Fister

2010 Winners - Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, David Price, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jered Weaver

2009 Winners - Zack Greinke, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Wandy Rodriguez, Joel Pineiro

2008 Winners - Clff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Ryan Dempster, Ervin Santana, Roy Halladay

2007 Winners - Fausto Carmona, Josh Beckett, Aaron Harang, James Shields, Erik Bedard

2006 Winners - Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Webb, Francisco Liriano, Aaron Harang, Justin Verlander

2005 Winners - Chris Carpenter, Dontrelle Willis, Andy Pettitte, Cliff Lee, John Patterson

2004 Winners - Johan Santana, Ben Sheets, Carl Pavano, Oliver Perez, Chris Carpenter

2003 Winners - Esteban Loaiza, Jason Schmidt, Livan Hernandez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay

2002 Winners - Odalis Perez, Derek Lowe, Matt Clement, Tim Wakefield, Roy Halladay

2001 Winners - Mark Mulder, Joe Mays, John Burkett, Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt

2000 Winners - Ryan Dempster, Jeff D’Amico, Glendon Rusch, Darryl Kile, Chan Ho Park

1999 Winners - Mike Hampton, Todd Ritchie, Tim Hudson, Kevin Millwood, Jose Lima

 

LVPs - CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Matt Cain, R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson

 

Sabathia's projection: 17-9, 3.46 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 187 K in 215 2/3 IP

Sabathia's 2013 stats: 14-13, 4.78 ERA, 1.370 WHIP, 175 K in 211 IP

 

Verlander's projection: 20-8, 3.08 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 218 K in 231 IP

Verlander's 2013 stats: 13-12, 3.56 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 207 K in 212 1/3 IP

 

Cain's projection: 17-9, 3.14 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 187 K in 214 2/3 IP

Cain's 2013 stats: 8-10, 4.00 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, 158 K in 184 1/3 IP

 

Dickey's projection: 17-9, 3.36 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 169 K in 219 1/3 IP

Dickey's 2013 stats: 14-13, 4.21 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 177 K in 224 2/3 IP

 

Johnson's projection: 14-8, 3.80 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 159 K in 187 IP

Johnson's 2013 stats: 2-8, 6.20 ERA, 1.660 WHIP, 83 K in 81 1/3 IP

 

The top three pitchers on this list have a combined $330 million left on their contracts, which is kind of a scary thought. I think Cain's down year was more of a fluke than the other two. Sabathia is quite possibly done as an ace, and while I think Verlander will bounce back somewhat next year, I probably won't have him penciled in as a Cy Young contender again. ... Dickey is the only one here I was higher on that most, and once he regained some velocity after dealing with back problems, he was an improved pitcher in the second half (6-3, 3.56 ERA, 85/24 K/BB ratio in 96 innings). Given that his price tag will be quite a bit smaller, I'll be recommending him again next spring.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Jeremy Hellickson, Dan Haren

2012 Losers - Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Ricky Romero, Jon Lester, Dan Haren

2011 Losers - Brian Matusz, Ubaldo Jimenez, Francisco Liriano, Ricky Nolasco, Chad Billingsley

2010 Losers - Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Javier Vazquez, A.J. Burnett

2009 Losers - Francisco Liriano, Cole Hamels, Joba Chamberlain, Derek Lowe, Daisuke Matsuzaka

2008 Losers - Justin Verlander, Fausto Carmona, Pedro Martinez, Ian Snell, Rich Hill

2007 Losers - Jeremy Bonderman, Mike Mussina, Dontrelle Willis, Jose Contreras, Scott Olsen

2006 Losers - Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson, Felix Hernandez, Dontrelle Willis, Odalis Perez

2005 Losers - Oliver Perez, Curt Schilling, Tim Hudson, Zack Greinke, Eric Milton

2004 Losers - Esteban Loaiza, Barry Zito, Jose Contreras, Jamie Moyer, Javier Vazquez

2003 Losers - Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Ramon Ortiz, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe

2002 Losers - Chan Ho Park, Freddy Garcia, Bud Smith, Brad Penny, Javier Vazquez

2001 Losers - Scott Elarton, Livan Hernandez, Kevin Millwood, Bartolo Colon, Dave Burba

2000 Losers - Jose Lima, Ramon Martinez, David Cone, Omar Daal, Kevin Millwood

1999 Losers - Roger Clemens, Jeff Fassero, Chan Ho Park, Tom Glavine, Brett Tomko

 

 

Relief Pitchers

 

 

MVPs - Koji Uehara, Kenley Jansen, Edward Mujica, Greg Holland

 

Uehara's projection: 3-2, 0 Sv, 2.70 ERA, 0.919 WHIP, 62 K in 53 1/3 IP

Uehera's 2013 stats: 4-1, 21 Sv, 1.09 ERA, 0.565 WHIP, 101 K in 74 1/3 IP

 

Jansen's projection: 5-3, 13 Sv, 2.52 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 87 K in 64 1/3 IP

Jansen's 2013 stats: 4-3, 28 Sv, 1.88 ERA, 0.861 WHIP, 111 K in 76 2/3 IP

 

Mujica's projection: 4-2, 0 Sv, 3.42 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, 66 K in 68 1/3 IP

Mujica's 2013 stats: 2-1, 37 Sv, 2.78 ERA, 1.005 WHIP, 46 K in 64 2/3 IP

 

Holland's projection: 5-3, 27 Sv, 2.98 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 80 K in 66 1/3 IP

Holland's 2013 stats: 2-1, 47 Sv, 1.21 ERA, 0.866 WHIP, 103 K in 67 IP

 

There was no shortage of options for MVP relievers, but the top three were still very obvious choices. Uehara got the lowest WHIP projection I gave out last winter, but that he managed to pitch 74 1/3 innings and give up just five homers qualify as big surprises. Ignoring saves, Jansen had my fourth best RP projection for the season behind only Craig Kimbrel, Sean Doolittle and Aroldis Chapman. As it turned out, he was still considerably better than that. Mujica faded in the end, but still rates as a top-10 closer.

 

Honorable Mention - Joaquin Benoit, Jim Henderson, Mark Melancon, Ernesto Frieri

2012 Winners - Fernando Rodney, Jim Johnson, Aroldis Chapman, Rafael Soriano

2011 Winners - Craig Kimbrel, Fernando Salas, Brandon League, Jordan Walden

2010 Winners - Neftali Feliz, John Axford, Rafael Soriano, Chris Perez

2009 Winners - Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma, Ryan Franklin, Rafael Soriano

2008 Winners - Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Francisco Rodriguez

2007 Winners - Jeremy Accardo, Takashi Saito, Kevin Gregg, Manuel Corpas

2006 Winners - J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, Takashi Saito, Akinori Otsuka

2005 Winners - Chad Cordero, Derrick Turnbow, Huston Street, Todd Jones, Bob Wickman

2004 Winners - Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jose Mesa, Shingo Takatsu

2003 Winners - Eric Gagne, Tim Worrell, Joe Borowski, Guillermo Mota

2002 Winners - Eric Gagne, Juan Acevedo, Byung-Hyun Kim, Octavio Dotel

2001 Winners - Byung-Hyun Kim, Jeff Zimmerman, Octavio Dotel, Jose Mesa

2000 Winners - Keith Foulke, Robb Nen, Gabe White

1999 Winners - Scott Williamson, Billy Koch, John Rocker

 

LVPs - John Axford, Jonathan Papelbon, Tom Wilhelmsen, Brandon League

 

Axford's projection: 4-4, 36 Sv, 3.16 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, 79 K in 68 1/3 IP

Axford's 2013 stats: 7-7, 0 Sv, 4.02 ERA, 1.523 WHIP, 65 K in 65 IP

 

Papelbon's projection: 4-5, 38 Sv, 3.08 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 75 K in 64 1/3 IP

Papelbon's 2013 stats: 5-1, 29 Sv, 2.92 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 57 K in 61 2/3 IP

 

Wilhelmsen's projection: 4-4, 32 Sv, 3.39 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 68 K in 69 IP

Wilhelmsen's 2013 stats: 0-3, 24 Sv, 4.12 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 45 K in 59 IP

 

League's projection: 4-5, 29 Sv, 3.28 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 57 K in 68 2/3 IP

League's 2013 stats: 6-4, 14 Sv, 5.30 ERA, 1.546 WHIP, 28 K in 54 1/3 IP

 

My first instinct was to include Chris Perez, since he prolonged the agony and cost teams down the stretch whereas three of these guys here were cut in fantasy leagues months ago. Still, the fact is that Perez was more valuable than Axford, Wilhelmsen and League over the course of the year and I had had him ranked below two of those guys (League was one spot behind him) in the preseason rankings. ... League and Axford get back-to-back LVPs, which is never a good thing. League pitched to expectations last year, but since the Mariners took him out of the closer's role, he was a bust for fantasy purposes. Axford, on the other hand, just stunk. This year, Axford lost his closer's role because of a bad week and then posted a 3.00 ERA over the next 5 1/2 months, for all the good it did him, while League was the one who stunk.

 

Dishonorable Mention - Chris Perez, J.J. Putz, Carlos Marmol, Fernando Rodney

2012 Losers - Heath Bell, Jordan Walden, Brandon League, John Axford

2011 Losers - Matt Thornton, Joakim Soria, Ryan Franklin, Neftali Feliz

2010 Losers - Chad Qualls, Jonathan Broxton, Trevor Hoffman, Bobby Jenks

2009 Losers - B.J. Ryan, Brad Lidge, Brandon Morrow, Matt Capps

2008 Losers - Jason Isringhausen, Manuel Corpas, J.J. Putz, Huston Street

2007 Losers - Tom Gordon, Salomon Torres, Jorge Julio, Bob Wickman

2006 Losers - Derrick Turnbow, Brad Lidge, Ryan Dempster, Armando Benitez

2005 Losers - Danny Kolb, Danny Graves, Guillermo Mota, Keith Foulke

2004 Losers - Arthur Rhodes, Joe Borowski, Shawn Chacon, David Riske

2003 Losers - Billy Koch, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Armando Benitez, Jose Mesa

2002 Losers - Keith Foulke, Scott Strickland, Armando Benitez, Antonio Alfonseca

2001 Losers - Todd Jones, John Rocker, Billy Koch, Dave Veres

2000 Losers - Bob Howry, Scott Williamson, John Rocker, Billy Wagner

1999 Losers - Rod Beck, Jeff Montgomery, Rick Aguilera, Gregg Olson


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Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter at matthewpouliot.
Email :Matthew Pouliot



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