Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

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Projections Review - Part 2

Wednesday, October 23, 2013


24. Nick Markakis - Orioles - $20

Projection: .301/.370/.457, 17 HR, 100 R, 68 RBI, 6 SB in 611 AB

2013 stats: .271/.329/.356, 10 HR, 89 R, 59 RBI, 1 SB in 634 AB

 

Markakis quietly slugged .471 in 104 games before a CC Sabathia fastball ended his 2012 season, so I didn't think my projection was so out of whack. He returned from the injury as a singles hitter and not a particularly good one. This is a guy who averaged 45 doubles and 18 homers per year from 2007-10. In 2013, he had a total of 34 extra-base hits.

 

25. Carl Crawford - Dodgers - $20

Projection: .289/.336/.426, 14 HR, 90 R, 56 RBI, 32 SB in 570 AB

2013 stats: .283/.329/.407, 6 HR, 62 R, 31 RBI, 15 SB in 435 AB

 

26. Melky Cabrera - Blue Jays - $18

Projection: .292/.337/.452, 15 HR, 91 R, 76 RBI, 12 SB in 586 AB

2013 stats: .279/.332/.360, 3 HR, 39 R, 30 RBI, 2 SB in 344 AB

 

27. Torii Hunter - Tigers - $17

Projection: .273/.331/.450, 22 HR, 95 R, 79 RBI, 7 SB in 567 AB

2013 stats: .304/.334/.465, 17 HR, 90 R, 84 RBI, 3 SB in 606 AB

 

28. Hunter Pence - Giants - $17

Projection: .276/.339/.451, 21 HR, 81 R, 94 RBI, 7 SB in 597 AB

2013 stats: .283/.339/.483, 27 HR, 91 R, 99 RBI, 22 SB in 629 AB

 

Where did the 22 steals come from? His career high was 18 in 2010. He had swiped eight and five bases in the two previous two seasons.

 

29. Michael Bourn - Indians - $17

Projection: .267/.337/.368, 7 HR, 93 R, 48 RBI, 47 SB in 614 AB

2013 stats: .263/.316/.360, 6 HR, 75 R, 50 RBI, 23 SB in 525 AB

 

Pence almost outswiped Bourn. The especially discouraging thing was that Bourn was thrown out just as many times (12) as he was in 61- and 52- steals seasons in 2009 and 2010. Hopefully, he'll have AL pitchers better figured out next year.

 

30. Jayson Werth - Nationals - $17

Projection: .280/.369/.451, 19 HR, 87 R, 69 RBI, 15 SB in 532 AB

2013 stats: .318/.399/.532, 25 HR, 84 R, 82 RBI, 10 SB in 462 AB

 

What a comeback for Werth. He led all NL qualifiers in OPS at age 34.

 

Others

 

40. Dexter Fowler - Rockies - $14

Projection: .270/.361/.433, 12 HR, 97 R, 60 RBI, 17 SB in 563 AB

2013 stats: .263/.369/.407, 12 HR, 71 R, 42 RBI, 19 SB in 415 AB

 

Fowler hit eight homers in April, and that was pretty much it. His last homer came on July 28.

 

41. Carlos Beltran - Cardinals - $14

Projection: .262/.349/.460, 23 HR, 84 R, 75 RBI, 7 SB in 504 AB

2013 stats: .296/.339/.491, 24 HR, 79 R, 84 RBI, 2 SB in 554 AB

 

42. Starling Marte - Pirates - $14

Projection: .265/.308/.423, 14 HR, 82 R, 54 RBI, 31 SB in 588 AB

2013 stats: .280/.343/.441, 12 HR, 83 R, 35 RBI, 41 SB in 510 AB

 

43. Michael Cuddyer - Rockies - $13

Projection: .273/.339/.461, 20 HR, 72 R, 82 RBI, 8 SB in 516 AB

2013 stats: .331/.389/.530, 20 HR, 74 R, 84 RBI, 10 SB in 489 AB

 

45. Alfonso Soriano - Cubs/Yankees - $13

Projection: .254/.318/.461, 20 HR, 72 R, 82 RBI, 7 SB in 516 AB

2013 stats: .255/.302/.489, 34 HR, 84 R, 101 RBI, 18 SB in 581 AB

 

Note the contrast here between the Cuddyer and Soriano projections. Cuddyer's is near perfect in everything except average. Soriano's is dead on with his average and OPS. Neither ended up being any good as fantasy projections. And yet I'm going to go through the process all over again this winter.

 

46. Carlos Gomez - Brewers - $13

Projection: .247/.305/.410, 17 HR, 73 R, 66 RBI, 36 SB in 539 AB

2013 stats: .284/.338/.506, 24 HR, 80 R, 73 RBI, 40 SB in 536 AB

 

55. Will Venable - Padres - $11

Projection: .267/.340/.443, 15 HR, 67 R, 57 RBI, 24 SB in 461 AB

2013 stats: .268/.312/.484, 22 HR, 64 R, 53 RBI, 22 SB in 481 AB

 

I was counting on the new Petco giving Venable a boost, but 22 homers was a nice surprise. Prior to this year, he hit a total of 19 homers in 751 career at-bats at Petco. This year, he hit 15 in 236 at-bats.

 

57. Norichika Aoki - Brewers - $10

Projection: .281/.346/.388, 7 HR, 78 R, 44 RBI, 24 SB in 552 AB

2013 stats: .286/.356/.370, 8 HR, 80 R, 37 RBI, 20 SB in 597 AB

 

59. Shane Victorino - Red Sox - $10

Projection: .257/.325/.387, 11 HR, 75 R, 62 RBI, 26 SB in 556 AB

2013 stats: .294/.351/.451, 15 HR, 82 R, 61 RBI, 21 SB in 477 AB

 

How was I to know he was going to be forced to give up switch-hitting? It really was one of the most remarkable success stories of 2013. Victorino hit .274/.317/.389 with three homers in 208 at-bats as a left-handed hitter this year. After his leg injury in August, he hit .300/.386/.510 with six homers in 100 at-bats batting right-handed against right-handed pitching.

 

60. Nick Swisher - Indians - $10

Projection: .256/.359/.441, 22 HR, 75 R, 83 RBI, 1 SB in 551 AB

2013 stats: .246/.341/.423, 22 HR, 74 R, 63 RBI, 1 SB in 549 AB

 

61. Domonic Brown - Phillies - $9

Projection: .265/.330/.459, 20 HR, 64 R, 73 RBI, 7 SB in 486 AB

2013 stats: .272/.324/.494, 27 HR, 65 R, 83 RBI, 8 SB in 496 AB

 

66. Coco Crisp - Athletics - $8

Projection: .261/.328/.386, 8 HR, 85 R, 40 RBI, 33 SB in 448 AB

2013 stats: .261/.335/.444, 22 HR, 93 R, 66 RBI, 21 SB in 513 AB

 

75. Michael Saunders - Mariners - $6

Projection: .243/.313/.398, 15 HR, 67 R, 59 RBI, 17 SB in 482 AB

2013 stats: .236/.323/.397, 12 HR, 59 R, 46 RBI, 13 SB in 406 AB

 

If not for Saunders' April DL stint, this could have been a Hall of Fame projection.

 

83. Drew Stubbs - Indians - $4

Projection: .235/.307/.364, 11 HR, 58 R, 48 RBI, 25 SB in 442 AB

2013 stats: .233/.305/.360, 10 HR, 59 R, 45 RBI, 17 SB in 430 AB

 

92. Wil Myers - Rays - $3

Projection: .240/.312/.429, 15 HR, 46 R, 51 RBI, 3 SB in 366 AB

2013 stats: .293/.354/.478, 13 HR, 50 R, 53 RBI, 5 SB in 335 AB

 

I thought Myers would have some trouble hitting righties as a rookie, but he batted .292 with 10 of his 13 homers against them.

 

107. Marlon Byrd - Mets/Pirates - $2

Projection: .265/.322/.390, 8 HR, 40 R, 42 RBI, 3 SB in 374 AB

2013 stats: .291/.336/.511, 24 HR, 75 R, 88 RBI, 2 SB in 532 AB

 

123. Daniel Nava - Red Sox - $1

Projection: .255/.348/.408, 7 HR, 35 R, 31 RBI, 3 SB in 255 AB

2013 stats: .303/.385/.445, 12 HR, 77 R, 66 RBI, 0 SB in 458 AB

 

If only Nava had stolen those three bases, he might be starting in the World Series instead of sitting on the bench behind Jonny Gomes.

 

127. Yasiel Puig - Dodgers - $1

Projection: .243/.287/.425, 6 HR, 24 R, 23 RBI, 8 SB in 181 AB

2013 stats: .319/.391/.534, 19 HR, 66 R, 42 RBI, 11 SB in 382 AB

 

Puig was a different player every month after debuting in June, but he was never a bad one. If he learns how to become a better basestealer, he should be a top-10 fantasy outfielder next year, and even if he doesn't, his natural talent will continue to carry him.

 

128. Raul Ibanez - Mariners - $1

Projection: .245/.319/.392, 8 HR, 28 R, 35 RBI, 1 SB in 273 AB

2013 stats: .242/.306/.487, 29 HR, 54 R, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 454 AB

 

The Mariners wanted to give Ibanez every chance to get to 30 homers at the end of the year. It didn't happen, and his 0-for-4 in game No. 162 dropped his OPS under .800 for the first time since June 22.

 

135. Andres Torres - Giants - $1

Projection: .238/.324/.335, 2 HR, 32 R, 23 RBI, 12 SB in 269 AB

2013 stats: .250/.302/.342, 2 HR, 33 R, 21 RBI, 4 SB in 272 AB

 

Well, I couldn't end it on a down note.



Matthew Pouliot is the Executive Editor of RotoWorld.com and has been doing the site's baseball projections for the last 10 years. Follow him on Twitter at matthewpouliot.
Email :Matthew Pouliot


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