Chet Gresham

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Daily Forecast: V for Victor

Tuesday, May 06, 2014


Last night we saw how Martin Perez fared in the altitude of Coors Field and he actually had a few nice starts this season. So let’s say hello to Mr. Robbie Ross who has given up 38 hits in 32 innings of work this year. Like Perez, Ross is a southpaw and like Perez, he will most likely be battered by the Rockies. He didn’t get out of the fourth inning in his last start, giving up 11 hits and six earned runs to Oakland and now he faces the hottest hitter in the league in Troy Tulowitzki. Baseball will make you question reality most of the time, but if Ross shuts down the Rockies in Denver, I will be taking the blue pill.

 

So far this season right-handed hitters are batting .326 against him with a .815 OPS. Look for the same band of Rockies players to get to him as those that got to Perez last night and feel free to stack the top half of that lineup.

 

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $45,000 Fantasy Baseball league for Tuesday night's MLB games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $7,000. Starts at 7:05pm ET on Tuesday. Here's the FanDuel link.

 

 

TOP SHELF


Troy Tulowitzki  - COL: Yes, I know this is like listing Kevin Durant, Peyton Manning and some really good hockey player, but at this point it has become difficult to win without him in the lineup. His price is painfully high, but when he is batting .595 (28-47) with 6 HRs and 21 RBIs at home so far this season, you just close your eyes and pay.

 

Victor Martinez – DET: Martinez has been murdering lefties this year to the tune of 10 for 26 with 3 doubles and 2 home runs. He gets poor Brett Oberholtzer who has given up 6 earned runs in each of his last two starts, in which he averaged less than 4 innings pitched. On the season he has allowed 40 hits in 32 innings and is a nice target on the road in Detroit.

 

Shin-Soo Choo – TEX: Well, this is starting to look a lot like yesterday’s Forecast, but it’s tough to stay away from this game and Choo. Jordan Lyles was on his groundball inducing game last night and still Choo managed to put together a good stat line with 2 hits, including a double, a walk, a run and a stolen base. Those are the kinds of days you can get out of him even when his team puts up just a couple runs. He once again gets to face a right-hander, this time Juan Nicasio who gives up a nice .350 wOBA and 1.47 HR/9 to lefties.

 

Also consider: Miguel Cabrera – DET, Nolan Arenado – COL, Albert Pujols – LAA. Justin Upton – ATL

 

 

 

BULK PURCHASE

 

Michael Morse – SFG: Morse is 10 for his last 25 with 4 doubles, 2 home runs and 7 RBIs. He hits righties at a much better rate than he does lefties, with a .360 wOBA and a .833 OPS. So far this season he is hitting righties at a .344 clip, 5 home runs, 17 RBIs and a 1.018 OPS.

 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - MIA: Over the last ten games Salty is batting .394 with 3 doubles, 4 home runs, 7 RBIs and 9 runs scored. He faces 40-year-old Bartolo Colon who has been hit or miss this season, but mostly miss, having given up seven home runs and 23 earned runs in 36 innings.

 

Ian Kinsler – DET: I’ll be stacking Rockies and Rangers players for the most part, but I’m loving the weak lefty against the Tigers. Kinsler is a southpaw masher (1880’s slang for good at hitting left-handed pitching). In his last three seasons he has a .391 wOBA against lefties and so far this season he’s hitting .414 with a 1.054 OPS against them.

 

Also consider: Todd Frazier – CIN, Torii Hunter – DET, Miguel Montero - ARI

 


 

BARGAIN BIN

 

Brandon Phillips – CIN: Phillips is 5 for his last 8 with 2 doubles, a home run and 4 runs scored and he faces the struggling lefty Felix Doubront at Fenway. Doubront hasn’t lasted 7 innings all season and has a hefty 5.70 ERA and 1.57 WHIP.  He also has given up 1.23 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters in his career. I’ll be looking for cheap Reds righties to pepper the Green Monster and my lineups today.

 

Angel Pagan – SFG: Pagan is 9 for 12 off Charlie Morton in his career and is 5 for his last 12. He’s also hitting .333 off righties so far this season.  I like the safety of this play, but the upside is low.

 

Garrett Jones - MIA: Jones hits righties like Colon for a saucy .352 wOBA and has been on fire of late, batting .400 over the last nine games. So far this season he's kept up his good hitting against right-handers as well with a .566 slugging percentage and all five of his home runs coming off them. Hitting behind Stanton doesn't hurt much either.

 

Billy Butler – KC:  Butler has been terrible this year, but we’re starting to see a glimmer of hope as he’s hit .343 over the last ten games. He’s always hit lefties well and gets a lefty in Robbie Erlin tonight. His price has plummeted enough that coupled with his uptick in average, he becomes a decent value play. Check to see if he's in the lineup without the DH first.

 

Also consider: Drew Stubbs – COL, Gerardo Parra – ARI, Brandon Barnes – COL

 

 

 

STARTING PITCHER


C.J. Wilson – LAA: Wilson has beaten the Yankees once already this season and that was in New York. He gets them at home tonight where he has 25 K’s in 20 innings. The Angels will face Hiroki Kuroda, who they beat the last time by getting to him for six earned runs, including to home runs. The odds are in the Angels and Wilson’s favor in this one.

 

Tim Hudson – SFG: Hudson’s resurgence has been strong this season with the Giants, He currently holds a 2.17 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP to go along with his 4-1 record. His shortest outing this year has been 7 innings and he’s walked a total of two batters all season. Of course his upside in DFS is limited without gaudy strikeout numbers, but on a day with few studs to choose from, he should make a safe play against the Pirates who have lost 7 of their last 10 whereas San Francisco has won 9 of their last 10.

 

Robbie Ray – DET:  Ray, the key piece in the Doug Fister trade to the Nationals, gets his first major league start at home against the Houston Astros. In Triple-A this season he has a 1.53 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 21:5 K:BB in 29.1 innings. The Astros, as we know, aren’t that much better than his Triple-A competition and his counterpart Brett Oberholtzer should get rocked by the tough Tiger lineup. Vegas has the Tigers as -183 favorites with a spot starting call up rookie leading the way. If Ray can get enough innings in, his odds of getting a win are great, and for a measly 3k at FanDuel, he’s worth the risk.

 

Also consider: Jesse Chavez – OAK, Clayton Kershaw - LAD



Chet Gresham writes Target Watch and The Morning After for Rotoworld.com and is the founder of The Fake Football. Chet can be found on Twitter .
Email :Chet Gresham


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