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FanDuel MLB Bargains: Thursday

Thursday, August 10, 2017


When looking at “bargains” on FanDuel, we'll typically focus on hitters who are $3,200 or lower. In general, we'll only highlight players at the top end of that scale if they have star potential.

 

We have 10 games in the main slate tonight. The big names include Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish, James Paxton, and Danny Salazar, all of whom are capable of providing a juicy point total. Storms may pop up in Chicago, but the current report says they'll pass through.

 

Please note, these player picks were organized early in the day. For MLB contests, always check lineups and weather closer to game time. Rain, wind, or unexpected managerial decisions could open up additional sources of value. Be sure to keep an eye on the MLB Headlines and Injuries desk.

 

On to the bargain plays...

 

1 – Blake Snell – SP – Tampa Bay (FanDuel $5,500)

 

While I have plenty of healthy skepticism when it comes to Snell's matchup against the Indians, this price tag does seem to be aggressively low. Suspect command is his biggest issue as a pitcher. He has swing-and-miss stuff, but he fails to hit spots all too often. He's been better about it in his three most recent outings. There's a decent chance he'll provide a quality start. A win may be out of reach. Still, 30 points for $5,500 ain't too shabby.

 

2 – Austin Barnes – C – Los Angeles (FanDuel $2,400)

 

Assuming Barnes' hand is healed enough to play, he's set to have the platoon advantage tonight. Barnes is one of the top performing catchers on a rate basis, having outperformed several of the biggest names at the position including Yasmany Grandal (i.e. the guy ahead of him on the depth chart). Overall, he's slashing .283/.404/.514 against all pitchers. Part of his success can be traced to mostly hitter friendly matchups. He'll face Anthony Banda, a decent looking prospect who is likely to suffer from some growing pains this season. The Dodgers offense could explode.

 

3 – Jesus Aguilar – 1B – Milwaukee (FanDuel $2,100)

 

Aguilar is having a decent season as a platoon first baseman for the Brewers. He usually bats cleanup or fifth when he's in the lineup. The Brewers are opposed by lefty Dietrich Enns in his major league debut. Based on some uninspiring scouting reports, Enns has the look of a spot starter. Aguilar rarely pieces together a big game, but all he needs is a solo home run to be a value tonight.

 

4 – Neil Walker – 2B – New York (FanDuel $2,600)

 

It's a good day to pay for a second baseman. Although Walker isn't particularly talented anymore – he's basically a league average hitter – the Mets have a desirable matchup against Vince Velasquez. The volatile right-hander could be one of the best or worst pitchers this evening. You never know what you'll get from him. If the Mets offense goes wild, Walker's spot in the heart of the lineup with be useful, especially at such a low price.

 

5 – Asdrubal Cabrera – 3B – New York (FanDuel $2,800)

 

Much like second base, it's better to pay for a stud than scrape the bargain bin tonight. Cabrera offers a very comparable value proposition to Walker. He's a roughly league average hitter set to face a pitcher prone to meltdowns. He usually bats second. If the Mets offense goes off, Cabrera will probably be a part of the fun. I'd be careful about using both Walker and Cabrera unless you're going all in on the Mets stack.

 

6 – Marcus Semien – SS – Oakland (FanDuel $3,100)

 

Semien's price has climbed over the last few weeks. Although he's done all his damaged against right-handed pitchers this season, he has a long history of lefty mashing, including a career .283/.330/.475 line. His opponent, Wade Miley, has allowed a .302/.392/.484 batting line to right-handed hitters. Since early June, Miley has a 8.55 ERA.

 

7 – Enrique Hernandez – OF – Los Angeles (FanDuel $2,000)

 

Check out these splits. In 125 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Hernandez is batting .259/.360/.620 with 19 of 28 hits going for extra bases. Any time you can pay the minimum for that, it's a huge win. He'll join Barnes in a potent-looking Dodgers stack.


8 – Adam Lind – OF – Washington (FanDuel $2,300)

 

Lind is having a flashy season at the plate, slashing .305/.351/.511 in 191 plate appearances. The Nationals “left fielder” is sometimes subbed out against left-handed relievers which dampens his value to DFS owners. As a ground ball hitter with a high hard contact rate, a matchup against a fly ball pitcher like Dan Straily is ideal.

 

9 – Keon Broxton – OF – Milwaukee (FanDuel $2,500)

 

Given the paucity of information about Enns – he wasn't a touted prospect – it's hard to say exactly how favorable this matchup is for Broxton. We can assume we're dealing with a well-below average pitcher. Broxton's mix of power and speed can ignite gaudy point totals. Unfortunately, his high whiff rate and role as the eighth hitter hurt. Even as a bargain, he probably zeroes out too often for cash game owners, making him a pure GPP pick.

 

10 – Dexter Fowler – OF – St. Louis (FanDuel $2,800)

 

Fowler is a tad snake bit this season. Over a long career, he has a .337 BABIP. This year, he checks in at just .275 BABIP. While you might assume the quality of his batted balls has declined, it appears he's making more hard contact than ever. In three games since returning from the disabled list (super small sample alert), he's gone 4-for-9 with five walks, two doubles, a triple, five runs, and a steal. How's that for filling up the score sheet? He also hit cleanup yesterday. Fowler is opposed by Jason Hammel.



Brad Johnson is a baseball writer for Rotoworld, FanGraphs, The Hardball Times, MLBTradeRumors and The Fake Baseball. He can be found on Twitter @BaseballATeam.
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