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MLB DFS Plays: Tuesday

Tuesday, June 12, 2018


Tonight we have a 15-game slate, but for such a massive slate, we don't have a lot of viable pitching options. There are a few weather concerns too, so make sure to check weather before lineup lock tonight. And, as always, make sure your players are actually in the lineup.

 

There are a few spots that I really like tonight, so with that said, let's get into my top picks for FanDuel and DraftKings.

 

Pitching

 

I think there are two clear-cut options at the top this evening.

 

We will start with the safer option in Miles Mikolas, who draws one of the worst offenses in baseball tonight, and with his pinpoint control, he should have no trouble with this one. Mikolas comes in with a .195 wOBA and a .071 ISO against righties, to go with a very good .301 wOBA with a .146 ISO against lefties. He has a 52.5% groundball rate with a 2.9% walk rate as well this season.

 

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The higher upside play is Aaron Nola against the Rockies. The Rockies are a much different offense on the road, and they tend to strike out at a high clip against righties. Nola has a 24.8% strikeout rate with an 11.7% swinging strike rate this season. He also has a strong wOBA and ground ball rate, which should help him here against the lefties.

 

The next tier is all about upside for me. I will first say that Foltynewicz and Rodriguez could be more in play depending on the lineups for the Mets and Orioles. When we get out of the top tier, I think McCullers, Gray, and Barria are the top targets though.

 

The projected starters for Oakland have a 21.6% strikeout rate against righties, and seven of the nine batters are at over 20% on the season. McCullers always has the strikeout upside; it's the walks that concern me more than anything else.

 

Gray has a 5.66 ERA but a 3.47 SIERA and a 3.21 xFIP this season. He has a career-high .379 BABIP, and judging by the SIERA and xFIP, he's just getting very unlucky this season. Gray still has a career-high 12.7% swinging strike rate and a 25.7% strikeout rate on the year.

 

Jaime Barria throws a lot of strikes, and he's getting ahead of hitters at a 60.4% clip this season. He does a great job at getting soft contact, while still having a 20.4% strikeout rate. His price on DraftKings is a little high, but he's priced down on FanDuel still, so I will take some shots on him over there.

 

Hitting

 

I'm going to start with this CLE/CWS game. I think the Indians are the top stack on the slate tonight, as they have a lot of upside against James Shields. Shields has done a much better job this year with his new arm angle, but I don't see that success lasting much longer. The Twins rocked him in his last start, and he's still allowing a lot of hard contact with a lot of fly balls. I really like the lefties in particular here. Outside of the high price tags, there isn't a lot of negative stuff to say about Cleveland's situation this evening.

 

On the other side, Adam Plutko has a .345 ISO with an 8.8% strikeout rate against lefties, and he has a massive 51.9% hard hit rate. I'll be targeting Moncada and Palka here. They are two of my favorite plays on this slate.

 

Elsewhere, Boston draws a great matchup tonight against David Hess, who is allowing a .362 wOBA with a .231 ISO against left-handed hitters this season. While the wOBA (.274) is much better against righties, he still has a .203 ISO against them. With Betts back and healthy, it just makes the lineup so much better. I like the top four in the order here and don't mind throwing in Devers or Bogaerts to make a five-man stack on DraftKings.

 

The Brewers make for another interesting stack tonight. Tyler Chatwood has a 20.7% walk rate with a 19.3% strikeout rate this season. It's rate that someone has a higher walk rate than strikeout rate. There will be runners on, so it will only take a few big hits for the Brewers to break the slate tonight. In addition, with Thames back, it adds another good bat to an already strong lineup.

 

Moving on, the Reds/Royals matchup is another game to look at. It's going to be hot in Kansas City today, and both of these pitchers allow a lot of hard contact. There is a lot of home run upside here, which is certainly something I'm looking at for tournaments.

 

LA draws a good matchup against Colon, and Pederson in particular is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. Tampa, Miami, and San Francisco also present value tonight. Jaime Garcia has a .362 wOBA against righties and a .358 wOBA against lefties. It's not the greatest ballpark, but the Rays are still pretty cheap on both sites. Both the pitchers in Miami have struggled this season, and if this game was being played somewhere else, I'd stack both teams. That said, Bour is still one of the top value plays on the slate, while McCutchen continues to have a high hard-hit rate and is still pretty cheap across the industry.



Stevie "stevietpfl" Young is a top-ranked DFS player and GrindersLive host who specializes in NFL, MLB and NASCAR. He provides both written content and media work for RotoGrinders.
Email :Stevie "stevietpfl" Young



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