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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Thursday

Thursday, June 14, 2018


If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT’s DFS platform, it’s an innovative daily fantasy game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last under five minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can roster him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link. 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Tyson Ross – SP – San Diego (DRAFT Projection: 8.8 FP)

 

I happen to think Anibal Sanchez is getting too much credit for what is usually an easy matchup against the Padres. Of the two pitchers, I figure Ross is slightly likelier to earn a win. This season, he’s induced over a strikeout per inning with a luck neutral 3.43 ERA. Nine of 13 starts have lasted six innings. While the Braves are a somewhat difficult opponent, they’re not a first rate offense. I project 40 percent of a win, 6.1 innings, 6.3 strikeouts, and 3.5 runs (10.7 FP). He’s strongly in the mix for fourth best starter. DRAFT ranks him 11th best.

 

Eric Hosmer – INF – San Diego (DRAFT Projection: 9 FP)

 

If you find yourself planning to bet on Ross, you might as well double down on his run support. Sanchez is homer prone, and Hosmer is quietly having another solid season. DRAFT ranks him just inside the top 20 infielders. I figure he’s closer to 10th best. He should definitely be drafted in six team leagues. He typically offers at least some production, and he has a high ceiling too.

 

George Springer – OF – Houston (DRAFT Projection: 8.8 FP)

 

Although Athletics pitcher Frankie Montas has performed well through three starts, there are reasons to worry about his small sample success. He isn’t inducing whiffs, and his stuff isn’t especially effective at generating soft contact. In fact, he’s gotten away with an over-40 percent hard contact rate. Regression is coming, and the Astros seem very likely to provide it. Springer can handle 95 mph heaters just fine. DRAFT ranks him 16th among outfielders. I’m taking him one pick before Nimmo.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Anibal Sanchez – SP – Atlanta (DRAFT Projection: 10.3 FP)

 

I foreshadowed this pick. Sanchez has been shockingly effective this season in 30.1 innings. His small sample success depends upon a .205 BABIP. The 2.37 ERA is clearly a fluke (4.81 FIP, 4.21 xFIP). Sanchez remains homer prone too. While nobody should be surprised by a strong outing against the Padres, I think this projection completely ignores the downside risk. This is a powerful if inconsistent offense. As possible as it is for him to pitch well, he’s just as likely to get crushed. I project 5.2 innings, 5.1 strikeouts, 3.7 runs, and one-third of a win (8.4 FP).

 

Brandon Nimmo – OF – New York (DRAFT Projection: 10.8 FP)

 

I love Nimmo. I’ve been right up there on his bandwagon since early Spring Training. He’s on all but two of my 11 traditional fantasy rosters. But sheesh. DRAFT ranks him as the top outfielder and second best hitter today. As much as I like his matchup, I can’t take him over dynamic talents like Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, and others. I’m probably shoving him down to around the sixth or seventh outfielder with a projection slightly below 10 FP.

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher Talk. This is very weird pitching slate. Justin Verlander obviously stands on top. From there, we’re left with a confusing blend of good pitchers with bad matchups (i.e. Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, David Price) and middling pitchers with strong matchups (i.e. Domingo German, Anibal Sanchez). The result, if you miss Verlander, Vince Velasquez, and Mike Clevinger, is a field of about 11 pitchers who could honestly be considered the fourth best. Get a top name or wait until the fifth round.



You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.
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