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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Thursday

Thursday, July 12, 2018


Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT’s DFS platform, it’s an innovative daily fantasy game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last under five minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can roster him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link. 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Max Scherzer – SP – Washington (DRAFT Projection: 14 FP)

 

Yes, Scherzer is the top rated pitcher on DRAFT, but this 14 FP projection understates his juicy matchup. Against a bad Mets lineup, he figures to supply over seven innings, a hair shy of 10 strikeouts, half a win, and only 2.4 runs allowed (16.8 FP). That’s a median projection – he has room to substantially outperform those numbers. The pitching slate is ridiculously deep which means premium hitters should be in demand today. Don’t be shy about picking Scherzer instead if he slips past the first few picks.

 

Further down the rankings, you’ll find Blake Snell with a 13th ranking despite a neutral matchup against the Twins. I project 10.8 FP which makes him the sixth best pitcher.

 

Max Muncy – INF – Los Angeles (DRAFT Projection: 9.2 FP)

 

In Daily Fantasy games, sometimes a player gets locked into a bargain valuation. This seems to have happened to Muncy. He’s the 13th ranked infielder by DRAFT. I have him as the fourth best. Muncy is set to feast upon a rapidly declining Tyson Ross. Over his last 12 starts, he’s allowed a luck neutral 5.16 ERA and 1.63 HR/9. Muncy feasts a low pitches – a staple of Ross – and his plate discipline should help him to lay off the breaking balls.

 

Steven Souza – OF – Arizona (DRAFT Projection: 8.9 FP)

 

Souza hasn’t exactly thrived this season. In 71 plate appearances, he’s batting .156/.239/.234. On a more encouraging note, he’s making plenty of hard contact. His batted ball profile looks typical, and his plate discipline may be improved for a second straight season. A hot streak is right around the corner. While he isn’t a platoon masher, it can’t hurt for him to have the advantage against southpaw Kyle Freeland. Unfortunately, both Souza and Freeland are ground ball guys – that favors the pitcher. Souza is the 13th ranked outfielder by DRAFT. I project him as the fourth best.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

David Price – SP – Boston (DRAFT Projection: 11.2 FP)

 

Price is seventh on DRAFT’s pitcher rankings. They underestimate the difficulty of his matchup against J.A. Happ which serves to limit his chances for a victory. Additionally, Price has struggled with home runs, a trend I don’t expect to change any time soon. He’s a wily pitcher capable of performing with the best on any given day, but he’s fallen far from his peak years. He’ll disappoint more often than not. I project six innings, six strikeouts, forty percent of a win, and 3.5 runs (10.1 FP).

                                              

C.J. Cron – INF – Tampa Bay (DRAFT Projection: 9.5 FP)

 

Cron is a modestly above average hitter with a swing-and-miss problem. He could easily lay into a Kyle Gibson fastball and deposit a home run. However, it’s far more likely he does a whole bunch of nothing. With a Coors Field game and plenty of elite bats on the table, there’s no way Cron is the eighth best infielder. In fact, I don’t have him anywhere near the top 20.

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher Talk. Because there are so many good pitchers available today, you’re purely hunting for value. That means Scherzer after the first few picks, another ace in the second or third round, or the best arm available in the fifth round. Sadly, Kluber and Severino cancel each other out to some extent. There is very little distance between the second and third tiers – they’re basically one clump distinguished solely by variance. The third tier guys are more volatile.

 

  1. Max Scherzer – Tier 1
  2. Charlie Morton – Tier 1
  3. Corey Kluber – Tier 1
  4. Luis Severino – Tier 1
  5. Ross Stripling – Tier 2
  6. Blake Snell – Tier 2
  7. James Paxton – Tier 2
  8. Kevin Gausman – Tier 3
  9. Nick Pivetta – Tier 3
  10. Jameson Taillon – Tier 3
  11. Kyle Gibson – Tier 3
  12. David Price – Tier 3

 

 



You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoBaller. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.
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