Brian Brown

NASCAR Fantasy Cheat Sheet

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The Ford 400

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 36th and final race of the 2010 season, the Ford 400. Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.

When: Sunday, November 21, 2010; 1:15 p.m./et.

Weather: Partly cloudy with a high around 80; wind out of the ESE at 12 mph. There is a 10% chance of precipitation.

The Track: Homestead-Miami Speedway

Homestead is a 1.5 mile oval. It has medium 18, 19, and 20 degree banking on the turns.


Prior to 2009 Roush had dominated at Homestead. The "Cat in the Hat" had two cars in the top three in 2008, four cars in the top 10 in 2007, three cars in the top 10 in 2006 and swept the top four spots during the 2005 race. Championship contenders Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson are non-Roush drivers with past success at the track.

Qualifying Procedures:

45 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Cars not in the top 35 in the 2010 owner point standings will have to qualify based on speed. Starting positions 1-43 are determined during qualifying on Friday, November 19 at 3:10 pm/et.

Fantasy Cheat Sheet:

Top 5

No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has had more success at Homestead than Hamlin or Johnson: four top fives, seven top 10s and an average finish of 8.4. He is going to be tough to beat.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has finished in the top three in three of the past four races at Homestead, including a win last season. He controls his own destiny and can clinch the title with a win and a second place finish while leading the most laps.
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson is just 15 points behind Denny Hamlin for the Sprint Cup title. Homestead is a track he has had success at in the past and he will race very hard for his fifth consecutive title.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards won the 2009 Ford 400 and has finished in the top eight the past five straight starts at the track. He is a top pick on Sunday.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has won three of the past six Homestead races. If there is ever a time to use the No. 16 car it is this weekend.

6 to 10

No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has nine top ten finishes in 11 career starts at Homestead. He is a great choice this weekend.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth dominated the 2007 edition of the Homestead race. He is a great option this weekend.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Stewart has two career wins at Homestead and five top ten finishes. We all know that Stewart would love nothing more than to win on Sunday and take a little of the attention away from whoever wins the championship.
No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch has four top five finishes in nine career starts at Homestead, including a win in 2004. He should finish in the top 10 this weekend.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. has been very good at Homestead. He is a terrific value pick.

11 to 20

No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch has finished 8th, 19th, 20th, 38th and 41st in his career at Homestead. He will be a factor in this race, but hopefully it isn't for causing an accident or using his middle finger.
No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin has averaged a 10.3 finish the past four races at Homestead. He will finish just a tad bit worse than his average this trip to South Florida.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton is usually very fast at Homestead. A top 15 finish is expected.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer has been hit-or-miss at Homestead during his career. There are a few less risky options this weekend.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano has driven very well lately. A top 15 finish won't surprise us.
No. 83 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has two top 10 finishes in six career starts. He is just a decent third driver on most fantasy teams this weekend.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has struggled at Homestead. He isn't a great choice.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has never been very good at Homestead. He will be doing well to crack the top 20.
No. 6 David Ragan: Ragan has had one good race and two okay races at Homestead during his career. He will finish in the top 25, but we don't think he will crack the top 15.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann has never finished outside the top 25 at Homestead. He will be decent again this weekend.

21 to 30
No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: Dinger cruised to a 10th place finish at Homestead last season. He is driving very well and should flirt with another top 20 finish.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has never finished better than 13th at Homestead. He will miss the top 20 again this weekend.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray has had some tough times at Homestead during his career. There are better sleepers for those in deep leagues.
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski finished 24th in his first visit to Homestead. He will improve on that finish slightly.
No. 13 Casey Mears: Mears has cracked the top 30 in six of the last seven races. He has had past success at Homestead and is worth taking a gamble on for those of you in the deepest leagues.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose qualified third and led four laps at Homestead last season. We expect a similar setup will give him a top 25 car this weekend.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard career average at Homestead is 27th. He should finish right around there this weekend.
No. 82 Scott Speed: Speed will be strong in the No. 82 car this weekend.
No. 9 Aric Almirola: Almirola has finished inside the top 30 in every race since taking over the No. 9 car. His streak is safe this weekend.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish has averaged a 29th place finish the past four races at Homestead. He will finish near this average.

31 to 35

No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler's average finish at Homestead during his career is around 28th, which is about where he will finish on Sunday.
No. 09 Bobby Labonte: Labonte won the 2003 race at Homestead, but he will be doing well to crack the top 30 on Sunday.
No. 21 Bill Elliott: Elliott won the 2001 race at Homestead and will get the No. 21 car in Sunday's field.
No. 7 Robby Gordon: Robby has averaged a 28th place finish at Homestead in his career. He takes too many chances to help your fantasy team.
No. 78 Regan Smith: Smith is the last of the true viable options for Sunday.

Field Fillers

No. 37 David Gilliland
No. 34 Travis Kvapil
No. 26 Patrick Carpentier
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 36 J.J. Yeley
No. 71 Andy Lally
No. 38 Dave Blaney
No. 46 Michael McDowell
No. 64 Landon Cassill
No. 66 Mike Bliss

Brownie's Picks

Top Four:

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Carl Edwards


1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. David Ragan

Bust of the Week:

1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

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