Brian Brown

NASCAR Fantasy Cheat Sheet

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The Aaron's 499

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series descends on Talladega Superspeedway for the 10th race of the 2013 season, the Good Aaron’s 499.  This race at ‘Dega promises to be one of the wildest races of this season.  Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.



When:  Sunday, May 5, 2013; 1:19 p.m./et.



Weather:  Partly cloudy with a high around 70; wind out of the NNW at 7 mph.  There is a 20 percent chance of precipitation. 



The Track:  Talladega Superspeedway


Talladega Superspeedway is a 2.66 tri-oval.  It has steep 33 degree banking in the turns and 18 degree banking on the straight-aways.  The banking allows the cars to run at intense speeds.  As a result of these speeds NASCAR has made ‘Dega a restrictor plate track.  This means all cars entered in the race must use the restrictor plates on their engines to limit air-intake and thus reduce horsepower.  Winning in a restrictor plate race takes often as much or even more luck than skill.  The driver that gets the right push at the right time can come from outside the top 10 into first place on the final lap of the race.  Additionally, NASCAR has continued to ban the “Talladega-Two-Step” after past boring races. 





As is the case with most restrictor plate races the field will become bunched up in two-wide groups.  These packs cruise around the track just inches away from each other.  It takes just one car to have a flat tire or lose control to cause a massive accident.  If a driver can get lucky and stay away from the inevitable big crash they have a great chance to finish inside the top 20.  In fantasy leagues a race like this is very difficult to predict.  As a result we suggest those of you in leagues that allow you to only pick a certain driver an allotted amount of times per year to select a team made-up of guys that you normally wouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole.  Drivers like Trevor Bayne and David Gilliland often can be just as dangerous in a restrictor plate race as the usual superstars like Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards



Qualifying Procedures:


45 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots.



Fantasy Cheat Sheet:


Top 5


No. 2 Brad Keselowski:  Keselowski used his front bumper to win the 2008 spring race at ‘Dega then won again last spring.  He has the aggressive style to win again this weekend.

No. 29 Kevin Harvick:  Harvick has been excellent in four of the last six races at ‘Dega.  He won the 2010 spring race, finished second in the fall and took fifth in spring of 2011.  He is one of our top picks this weekend.

No. 20 Matt Kenseth:  Kenseth won at ‘Dega last fall and ran great in the spring.  Look for him to be strong again this weekend.

No. 48 Jimmie Johnson:  Johnson won the 2010 spring race at ‘Dega and he will be a good-shoe this weekend.

No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has six career wins at Talladega.  He could be showered by beer cans again this weekend.



6 to 10


No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.:  After finishing no worse than second in seven-straight 'Dega races Junior has cracked the top 10 just five times in the past 16 races at the track.  He will need lots of luck on Sunday to regain his “King of Talladega” nickname.

No. 14 Tony Stewart:  Stewart won the 2008 fall race at Talladega and is itching for another win at the track.  He will push the limits.

No. 31 Jeff Burton:  Burton has cracked the top 12 in seven of the last 10 trips to Alabama.  This is the weekend to use Mr. Burton.

No. 15 Clint Bowyer:  Bowyer has been awesome in four of the past five races at ‘Dega.  We like his chances on Sunday.

No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.:  Truex Jr. had great cars in nine of the past 13 races at Talladega.  He is a high risk/high reward pick this weekend.



11 to 20


No. 11 Denny Hamlin:  Hamlin will start Sunday’s race, but be replaced behind the wheel by Brian Vickers at the first caution.  He isn’t worth using.

No. 5 Kasey Kahne:  Kahne drove great at ‘Dega the past three trips to the track.  We like his chances to be fast again this weekend.

No. 22 Joey Logano:  Logano has impressed everyone in his first few trips to Talladega.  It won’t surprise us if he finishes inside the top 10 on Sunday.

No. 18 Kyle Busch:  Rowdy has averaged just a 22nd place finish at Talladega during his career.  He has won at the speedway, but we expect he won’t have enough patience to take the checkers this weekend.

No. 16 Greg Biffle:  Biffle's success at Talladega has been limited.  In 20 career Cup starts at the track he has just six finishes better than 13th.  His lack of success makes him a bit of a risky pick.

No. 99 Carl Edwards:  Edwards has led just 25 laps in 17 career starts at Talladega, there are better weekends to use Cousin Carl.

No. 1 Jamie McMurray:  McMurray snuck a win at Talladega during the November 2009 race and won at Daytona last year.  He has become a force in all restrictor plate races.

No. 78 Kurt Busch:  Busch has cracked the top 10 in nine his last 16 starts at Talladega.  He is a good option on Sunday.

No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya:  Montoya has had quality finishes at ‘Dega in the past and could surprise this trip to the track. 

No. 27 Paul Menard:  Menard has run strong in seven of the past 10 ‘Dega races.  He is a great sleeper pick this weekend.



21 to 30


No. 39 Ryan Newman:  Newman has run well in five of the last 12 Talladega races.  He has the ability to run in the front and is an okay pick this weekend.

No. 43 Aric Almirola:  Almirola should be fast enough to get the Famous 43 into the top 30.

No. 10 Danica Patrick:  Danica was decent at Daytona this year and could crack the top 15 with a push at the right time.

No. 34 David Ragan:  Ragan has been better than average at Talladega during his career.  He will likely hang back and hope to pick the correct draft on the late laps.  This is the best strategy to use at 'Dega and it could result in another top 10 finish for the No. 34.

No. 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.:  Stenhouse will earn his yellow stripe this weekend.

No. 34 David Gilliland:  Gilliland is always fast on restrictor plate tracks.  He is worth taking a look at. 

No. 9 Marcos Ambrose:  Ambrose impressed with a fourth place finish at Talladega in 2009, but he hasn’t done much since. 

No. 13 Casey Mears:  Mears has averaged a 21st place finish at Talladega the past seven years.  He should crack the top 30.

No. 21 Trevor Bayne:  You can’t forget the 2011 Daytona 500 champ.  We expect he won’t handle this swing at restrictor plate racing so flawlessly, but he is still worth taking a gamble on.

No. 32 Terry Labonte:  Texas Terry has years and years and years of experience at ‘Dega.  He isn’t a terrible pick.



Field Fillers


No. 47 Bobby Labonte

No. 55 Michael Waltrip

No. 83 David Reutimann

No. 51 Regan Smith

No. 93 Travis Kvapil

No. 81 Elliott Sadler

No. 87 Joe Nemechek

No. 7 Dave Blaney

No. 19 Mike Bliss

No. 95 Scott Speed

No. 36 J.J. Yeley

No. 35 Josh Wise

No. 98 Michael McDowell

No. 33 Landon Cassill

No. 35 Josh Wise



My Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Team for this Week:


A. Brad Keselowski

B. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

B. Martin Truex Jr.

C. David Ragan

Email :Brian Brown

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