The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the 36th and final race of the 2013 season, the Ford EcoBoost 400. Brian Brown took a look at past performances, season trends, and spoke with NASCAR contacts to predict how the field should finish on Sunday.
When: Sunday, November 17, 2013; 3:16 p.m./et.
Weather: Partly cloudy with a high around 84; wind out of the E at 15 mph. There is a ZERO percent chance of precipitation.
The Track: Homestead-MiamiSpeedway
Homesteadis a 1.5 mile oval. It has medium 18, 19, and 20 degree banking on the turns.
Key to Race: JOHNSON, KENSETH or HARVICK
Jimmie Johnson has virtually wrapped up his sixth NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship. The only other drivers not mathematically eliminated are Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick. Look for Kenseth and Harvick to go for all-or-nothing in Sunday’s race.
43 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots.
Fantasy Cheat Sheet:
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick has had decent success at Homestead: five top fives, 10 top 10s and an average finish of seventh. He is going to be tough to beat.
No. 20 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth dominated the 2007 edition of the Homestead race and finished fourth in 2011. He will take some risks to bring home the victory and is a great option.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: Edwards finished second in 2011, and won the 2010 and 2008 races at Homestead. He is a great choice this weekend.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has won three of the past nine Homestead races. This weekend is a good time to sneak the No. 16 onto your roster.
No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon won at Homestead last year and will do his best to do it again this weekend.
6 to 10
No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has had past success at Homestead, but he doesn’t need to win this weekend to notch his sixth championship. Expect Mr. 5-Time to take drive a conservative race and not take a lot of chances.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch dominated last year’s race at Homestead, but only managed a fourth place finish. He will be strong again this weekend.
No. 2 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has top 25 finishes in all career starts at Homestead. He will do it again this weekend.
No. 5 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has four top 10 finishes in nine career starts at Homestead. He is a great pick.
No. 78 Kurt Busch: Busch has four top five finishes in 12 career starts at Homestead, including a win in 2004. He should finish inside the top 10 this weekend.
11 to 20
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has never finished better than 10th at Homestead. He will miss the top 10 again this weekend.
No. 15 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer finished second last year at Homestead. We like his chances to crack the top 15 again this year.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. has been very good atHomestead. He is a terrific value pick.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has finished in the top three in three of the past seven races at Homestead, including a win in 2009.
No. 14 Mark Martin: Martin has averaged a top 15 finish the past eight races at Homestead. He will finish right around his average this trip to South Florida.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman has been great at Homestead the past three years. He is a strong third driver on most teams this weekend.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton is usually very fast at Homestead. A top 20 finish is expected.
No. 43 Aric Almirola: Almirola finished seventh at Homestead last year. He should continue his success this weekend.
No. 22 Joey Logano: Logano should finish inside the top 20.
No. 27 Paul Menard: Menard finished 11th at Homestead last season. He is a good sleeper pick.
21 to 30
No. 9 Marcos Ambrose: Ambrose drove a very fast race at Homestead last year. He is a nice value pick.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has struggled at Homestead. He isn’t a great choice.
No. 17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: Stenhouse was terrible in his first visit to Homestead last year. He will be better, but not much.
No. 21 Trevor Bayne: Our thoughts and prayers are with Bayne as he battles M.S. He should just miss the top 20 this weekend.
No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray has had some tough times at Homestead during his career. There are better sleepers for those in deep leagues.
No. 13 Casey Mears: Mears has averaged a top 25 place finish at Homestead during his career, but he has struggled at the track lately. He is only worth taking a gamble on for those of you in
the deepest leagues.
No. 55 Elliott Sadler: Sadler has averaged a 32nd place finish at Homestead. He isn’t worth using.
No. 10 Danica Patrick: She isn’t worth taking a chance on this weekend.
No. 34 David Ragan: Ragan has averaged a 26th place finish at Homestead. He isn’t much of an option.
No. 51 Kyle Larson: Larson won’t do much, but there are worse picks.
No. 47 A.J. Allmendinger
No. 83 David Reutimann
No. 38 David Gilliland
No. 7 Dave Blaney
No. 33 Tony Raines
No. 93 Travis Kvapil
No. 98 Michael McDowell
No. 40 Landon Cassill
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 30 Parker Kligerman
No. 32 Ken Schrader
No. 35 Josh Wise
No. 36 J.J. Yeley
My Yahoo! Fantasy NASCAR Team for this Week:
A. Matt Kenseth
B. Carl Edwards
B. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
C. David Ragan