Dan Beaver

Statistically Speaking

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1. Joey Logano

Tuesday, February 14, 2017


Since NASCAR implemented the knockout-style championship with a winner-take-all finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, predicting who will run well in that particular race and the three immediately preceding it has been difficult. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Jimmie Johnson won the three championships under this format, but they have not necessarily been the top fantasy option throughout the duration of each season.

In the past three years, Joey Logano has earned the most top-10s with 76. In that span, he owns a share of the most top-fives with Harvick and the most victories with Johnson. His average finish of 10.3 is slightly better than Harvick’s 10.5 and the best of the field. Races are not won statistically, but fantasy players can use them to win their season-long leagues.

Last year’s Ford 400 was perhaps the best championship race seen in the short time the format has been used. Carl Edwards failed to dominate most of the playoffs, but won a key race at Texas Motor Speedway to advance to the finale. He had the right setup in Homestead, but Logano nipped at his heels for most of the race. Late in the going, Logano had a run on Edwards that almost certainly would have resulted in his taking the lead—once there, it is unlikely he would have given it up.

Logano did not earn the most wins last year, but he had key victories. His June FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway got him into the playoffs and two wins in the final 10 races advanced him to the end. He had momentum entering Homestead with a victory at Phoenix International Raceway in the fall. Logano closed out the season with a six-race, top-10 streak of which five were top-fives—and except for one bad stretch in May, he never posted back-to-back results outside of 10th.

Segment points and bonuses that carry throughout the playoffs are going to change the way drivers’ race. Expect more than three wins from Logano in 2017. If he can couple those with the same consistency he has shown during the past three years, he’ll enter the Ford 400 with another opportunity to win a championship. And now he knows what it is like to lose one.

Victories: Michigan (spring), Talladega (fall), and Phoenix (fall)
Top-fives: 16 (.444)
Top-10s: 26 (.722)
Top-15s: 29 (.806) 

 

Track

3-Yr
Avg.
Fin

Career
Avg.
Fin

Best
Fin

Career
Attempts

Career
Top-10s

Race 1

Race 2

Watkins Glen International

3.00

12.75

1

8

5

2

 

Chicagoland Speedway

4.00

13.63

2

8

4

2

 

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

4.67

12.63

2

8

5

7

 

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

5.33

10.75

2

8

4

2

 

Richmond International Raceway *

5.50

13.19

1

16

8

8

10

Michigan International Speedway *

5.83

12.63

1

16

11

1

10

Phoenix International Raceway

7.00

13.19

1

16

9

18

1

Sonoma Raceway

8.00

12.88

3

8

4

3

 

Homestead - Miami Speedway

8.00

16.00

4

8

3

4

 

Kansas Speedway

8.67

17.67

1

15

6

38

3

Atlanta Motor Speedway

10.00

18.80

2

10

2

12

 

Dover Downs International

10.17

13.44

3

16

10

22

6

Daytona International Speedway *

10.17

16.88

1

16

6

6

4

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

10.33

14.94

1

17

8

3

11

Texas Motor Speedway +

10.33

16.59

1

17

7

3

2

Martinsville Speedway

11.50

14.25

2

16

6

11

9

Charlotte Motor Speedway

12.50

11.19

1

16

9

9

36

Bristol Motor Speedway *

13.67

17.56

1

16

6

10

10

Darlington Raceway

14.67

18.38

4

8

4

5

 

Kentucky Speedway

16.67

15.00

2

6

3

39

 

Auto Club Speedway

16.67

15.80

3

10

4

4

 

Talladega SuperSpeedway

17.17

18.69

1

16

6

25

1

Pocono Raceway

18.17

16.56

1

16

6

5

37

 

+ Top-five sweeps
* Top-10 sweeps

2. Kevin Harvick 
3. Jimmie Johnson 
4. Kyle Busch 
5. Chase Elliott 
6. Brad Keselowski 
7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 
8. Matt Kenseth 
9. Denny Hamlin 
10. Kyle Larson
11. Martin Truex Jr.
12. Carl Edwards
13. Kasey Kahne 
14. Kurt Busch 
15. Erik Jones 
16. Ryan Blaney 

2016 Profile: Joey Logano 
2015 Profile: Joey Logano 

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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