Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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DFS: Texas (Spring)

Thursday, April 6, 2017


Draft Kings

Since the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks dominate the schedule, salary caps often reflect the relative strength on a driver on this track type. Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, and Martin Truex Jr. should be handicapped at the top of anyone’s fantasy preview because of how strong they have been on this track type.

All three are priced greater than $10,000 in the Draft Kings game, however, so a player can take only one of these marque racers—and even then, they have to make some hard choices at the bottom of the price chart. Put that decision aside for the moment and concentrate on drivers who may score fewer points, but are liable to be much better values.

If one glances at the chart below, they will notice Kasey Kahne has the 10th-best three year average at Texas Motor Speedway—and this was earned despite the fact that he lost 13 points in 2014. In three of the remaining four races, he scored enough points to land in the top 10. He has been struggling recently, but there is still plenty of gas in his tank and he is well worth the $7,300 price tag assigned to him in Draft Kings.

More than $1,000 below the midline, Kahne will free up a lot of salary cap, but that might not be enough to allow a player to take whomever they chose at the top. The search for bargains continues. There are a couple of fresh faces that will perform that feat, however. Ty Dillon and Erik Jones have each made starts on this track in the past and both are bargain priced. Dillon can be had for $6,600; Jones is more expensive at $7,600, but if these two drivers are combined with Kahne, that allows a player to spend $9,500 each on their remaining three drivers. Only eight racers this week are priced greater than that new midline.

Luckily, Chase Elliott lands exactly at the new average and that makes him an easy choice. Priced at $9,500, which is the eighth-most expensive in the game, he is very likely going to contend for a top-five if not the outright victory. Elliott’s two starts at Texas resulted in top-fives and he has been the class of the field along with Larson on unrestricted, intermediate speedways.

Shifting the focus back toward the top for a moment, Kyle Busch is priced below the $10,000 mark. His five consecutive top-fives at Texas makes this a little surprising, but he has struggled this season. With a second-place finish at Martinsville Speedway last week, his fortune has reversed and it is time to trust him once more.

With Busch, Elliott, Jones, Kahne, and Dillon on the roster, that leaves $9,100 to spend on the final selection. The decision at that price range is going to come down to Denny Hamlin or Clint Bowyer.

Hamlin has a better record at Texas, but Bowyer has been great ever since the series rolled out of Daytona. There is a lot to be said for momentum. Moreover, Bowyer is a little cheaper at $8,800 to Hamlin’s $9,000 and that just might allow a player to upgrade one of the bargain picks. 

Draft Kings: Current track, Last Three Years

Driver

Avg.
Points

Avg. Group
Rank

Maximum

Minimum

Texas 1 Cap

Jimmie Johnson

68.54

5.83

124.25

27

$9,700.00

Kyle Busch

64.45

5.20

88.5

43.75

$9,900.00

Brad Keselowski

64.08

11.33

166

17.5

$10,500.00

Joey Logano

53.38

13.17

113.5

-20

$9,800.00

Martin Truex Jr.

51.83

11.17

92.75

15

$10,200.00

Chase Elliott

47.25

8.00

51.75

42.75

$9,500.00

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

45.50

11.40

76

-23

$8,500.00

Kevin Harvick

43.79

11.33

93

-35.75

$10,000.00

Jamie McMurray

40.63

11.33

56

22

$8,300.00

Kasey Kahne

37.42

15.67

59

-13

$7,300.00

Matt Kenseth

35.25

17.00

57.5

15.5

$9,300.00

Ty Dillon

34.50

14.00

34.5

34.5

$6,600.00

AJ Allmendinger

31.67

16.00

40.5

23

$6,700.00

Ryan Newman

29.75

18.83

42

25.5

$7,800.00

Aric Almirola

28.42

19.17

39

19.5

$6,400.00

Denny Hamlin

28.42

17.83

45.25

-22.5

$9,000.00

Chris Buescher

28.33

19.00

32

24.5

$6,000.00

Clint Bowyer

27.13

21.83

61.25

4

$8,800.00

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

26.92

20.17

41

16

$7,000.00

Erik Jones

26.50

24.00

26.5

26.5

$7,600.00

Kyle Larson

26.00

20.17

56.5

-12.5

$10,300.00

Paul Menard

25.54

21.00

39

-2

$6,800.00

Kurt Busch

25.17

19.67

47.5

-22

$8,000.00

Cole Whitt

22.70

23.60

33

6.5

$5,800.00

Austin Dillon

21.00

23.00

48.5

-17

$7,500.00

David Ragan

20.96

25.50

48

11

$6,200.00

Danica Patrick

20.92

24.67

33.5

2

$6,300.00

Landon Cassill

18.00

26.50

31.5

-4.5

$5,600.00

Michael McDowell

16.90

28.00

26

9

$5,500.00

Timmy Hill

16.00

27.00

16

16

$4,800.00

Reed Sorenson

13.81

30.25

17

10

$5,300.00

Matt DiBenedetto

12.25

32.33

18

6.5

$5,700.00

Jeffrey Earnhardt

12.00

31.00

12

12

$5,100.00

Trevor Bayne

11.60

29.20

31

-9

$6,900.00

Ryan Blaney

-2.88

34.25

31.5

-26.5

$8,100.00

Gray Gaulding

 

 

 

 

$4,900.00

Corey LaJoie

 

 

 

 

$4,500.00

Daniel Suarez

 

 

 

 

$7,200.00

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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