Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

print article archives RSS

DFS: Bristol (Spring)

Wednesday, April 19, 2017


Draft Kings

Only two of the active drivers entered this week swept the top 10 last year. Three others swept the top 15, but that made this one of the three biggest wild cards of the season, wedged between the restrictor-plate, superspeedways of Daytona International Speedway and Talladega SuperSpeedway.

The lesson is simple: do not overspend on drivers costing more than $10,000. In fact, ignore them completely until it comes time to make the final roster pick. A quick look at the chart on the bottom of this page will reveal that several drivers with price tags at or near the midline price of $8,333 are ranked among the top-10 in terms of their three-year average points earned in the Draft Kings game.

This week, fantasy players should start by looking below the midline. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is priced at only $7,100, but he has the second-best, three-year average at Bristol. It has been well-earned by finishing results and not just ancillary scoring categories such as place-differential points or fastest laps led following a tire change. Stenhouse has four results of sixth or better in his last six starts on this bullring, including a pair of runner-up results. One of these came last summer. He also had a 10th in the most recent short track race.

Jamie McMurray is another attractive proposition this week with the sixth-best ranking and a price tag of $8,000. He scored the most Draft Kings points in summer 2014 and the fifth-most last year. He has current momentum on his side with solid runs all season. The only thing that makes him questionable is the fact that he struggles more in the spring than summer with two rankings outside the top 20.

Bayne has only four previous starts at Bristol, but he is showing a tendency toward consistency. His last three efforts netted the 14th-, ninth-, and 13th-most points respectively in a narrow range of 39 through 45. Along with his teammate Stenhouse, the new Roushketeers are making a lot of noise and often backing that up with solid results. In a week when chaos is likely to reign, they deserve a second look.

If one takes those three statistically strong driver from below the midline, a player’s new average rises to $9,366, so it is not yet time to decide which marquee racer should be on one’s roster—but one can move the cursor up and consider some traditionally strong options.

Clint Bowyer has been better than most expected in the first seven races of this season. When the green fell over Daytona, the No. 14 was projected to run well on precisely this type of track, however, and there is no reason to turn a back on momentum. Bowyer can be signed for $8,400, which continues to free up salary cap.

Matt Kenseth was once absolutely great at Bristol. His wins on this track were dramatic and fairly recent with trips to Victory Lane in 2013 and 2015. Since that last trophy in a rain-plagued Food City 500, he has hit on hard times, but that could play in one’s favor if it makes the competition overlook the most mature driver in the field.

With that lineup selected, a fantasy player can now take absolutely anyone. Kyle Busch is priced at $10,600, making him the most expensive driver in the field. He has been snake bit in recent races on this track, however, with four results outside the top 25.

That leaves the second-most expensive driver as the most attractive. Kevin Harvick has had his share of problems in 2017, but he has been solid at Bristol in his last three attempts with a victory, a second-place finish, and a seventh. No one expects him to stay down for long and this could be the week during which he gets his first win of the season. If that happens, he will be the first back-to-back winner on this track since 2012 when Brad Keselowski performed the feat. 

 

Driver

Avg.
Points

Maximum

Minimum

Bristol 1 Cap

Kevin Harvick

71.75

133.5

21

$10,400

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

53.83

72.5

10

$7,100

Jimmie Johnson

49.67

76.5

15.5

$9,700

Chase Elliott

48.25

65.5

31

$9,400

Joey Logano

46.58

121.5

-28

$10,000

Jamie McMurray

43.50

100.5

-1.5

$8,000

Clint Bowyer

40.71

64

13

$8,400

Kyle Larson

38.33

95

-17

$10,100

Matt Kenseth

37.67

88.5

-21.5

$9,100

Trevor Bayne

36.88

45

19.5

$6,800

Kurt Busch

35.63

82.25

-16.5

$7,700

Matt DiBenedetto

34.75

62

21

$5,700

Chris Buescher

34.67

48.5

23.5

$6,700

Ryan Newman

33.88

52

6.75

$7,500

Aric Almirola

32.67

68.5

-2

$6,600

Austin Dillon

32.42

49.5

7

$7,300

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

31.90

65

-8.5

$8,600

Danica Patrick

31.83

52.5

14

$6,200

Kyle Busch

31.15

111

-20.5

$10,600

Denny Hamlin

28.46

74.5

-10.5

$8,800

Ty Dillon

28.00

28

28

$6,300

Paul Menard

27.50

45.5

0.5

$6,400

Brad Keselowski

26.00

78

-19

$10,300

Kasey Kahne

25.42

54.5

-15

$7,600

AJ Allmendinger

20.92

38

-4

$6,500

Reed Sorenson

20.75

32

2

$5,100

Jeffrey Earnhardt

20.50

24

17

$4,800

Michael McDowell

18.67

37

-5.5

$5,500

Landon Cassill

17.67

39

-25

$5,300

Martin Truex Jr.

16.92

35

2

$9,500

Cole Whitt

15.08

32

-18

$5,900

Ryan Blaney

14.50

41.5

-14

$8,200

Timmy Hill

4.00

7

1

$4,900

David Ragan

1.83

45

-26.5

$6,100

Gray Gaulding

 

 

 

$4,700

Erik Jones

 

 

 

$7,800

Corey LaJoie

 

 

 

$4,500

Daniel Suarez

 

 

 

$7,000

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



Highest Searched Drivers over the last 7 days



Video Center

  •  
    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings

    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings
  •  
    Boyer: Hot Hitters

    Boyer: Hot Hitters
  •  
    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings

    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings
  •  
    Short: Saves & Steals

    Short: Saves & Steals
  •  
    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings

    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings
  •  
    Boyer: Hot Hitters

    Boyer: Hot Hitters
  •  
    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings

    Jesse: MLB Power Rankings
  •  
    Boyer: Hot Hitters

    Boyer: Hot Hitters