Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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DFS: Kansas (Spring)

Thursday, May 11, 2017


Draft Kings

This week, 28 drivers are valued below the midline of $8,333 in Draft Kings. That leaves one to wonder if there is a shift in philosophy in the game, or if this is a response to how top-loaded the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks are with marquee talent.

Whichever is the case, fantasy owners need to adjust their gameplay to accommodate this cap structure. We often recommend starting at the bottom and building up, but that might not be the best strategy this week.

Brad Keselowski ($10,700), Kevin Harvick ($10,400), and Jimmie Johnson ($10100) are all priced above $10,000 this week.

Kyle Larson ($9,900), Martin Truex Jr. ($9,700), Joey Logano ($9,500), Kyle Busch ($9,400), and Chase Elliott ($9,100) are greater than $9,000.

It is obvious that these eight drivers are the ones Draft Kings has handicapped to finish among the top 10.

Based on last year’s Kansas record, the two best drivers among them are Harvick and Busch.

Harvick finished second in the spring race and won last fall. Busch won the spring and finished second in the fall and he has the added benefit of finishing fifth and third in the races that preceded it. Busch is priced more affordably than Harvick by $1,000 because he has struggled at times in 2017, but the Joe Gibbs Racing organization is poised to challenge for wins. Last week’s near-miss at Talladega will have restored his confidence.

Selecting Busch leaves $8,120 per player remaining and there are still plenty of great drivers in that range. Move the slide bar down and focus only on drivers between $8,100 and $6,900 for the moment and there will be several strong options.

The best of these is the most expensive. Jamie McMurray is priced at $8,100, but he has been well worth starting on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks this year with a sweep of the top 10. Better still, he has gotten progressively stronger in each subsequent race with a best of seventh in the O'Reilly 500. He should and will challenge for a top-10 this week.

Ryan Blaney is right behind McMurray on the price list at $8,000. His cap has taken a hit because of a three consecutive 30-something finishes. There is still a lot of potential in this driver and team if he can avoid trouble. An error-free race in the coming weeks is inevitable and when that happens, Blaney will challenge for top-10s again. It is worth the gamble that his next error free races will come at both Kansas and Charlotte Motor Speedway.

If one wants to take another marquee driver, they are going to have to take a risk on a low-cost racer. Selecting McMurray and Blaney brings Ty Dillon into view. By sheer force of will, this driver has put his team in contention on every track type including the 1.5-milers. He has finished in a narrow range of 15th to 21st and if he qualifies worse than 17th, he is likely to earn positive place-differential points.

That changes to average cost per remaining drivers to $8,900, so players who wish to take one more marquee driver will have to make one more gamble. Chris Buescher has been one of our top choices all season because he has improved in race trim nearly every week. He has not earned a top-20 on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks yet, but all of his results were in the low-20s and that supports at price tag of $6,500.

Players can now take anyone they chose with quite a bit of virtual cash left over. Harvick’s price tag of $10,400 seems imminently manageable.

Now, one might want to delete either Dillon or Buescher to see who is available.

The possibilities to replace either of those drivers range from Ryan Newman to Trevor Bayne, but each of the drivers in the mid-$7,000 to mid-$6,000 range have some questions hanging over their head. Make a note of them, however, and decide after qualification who is poised to earn the most points based on practice speeds and the possibility of earning place-differential points.   

 

Driver

Avg.
Points

Maximum

Minimum

Kansas 1 Cap

Kevin Harvick

71.75

101.75

30.75

$10,400.00

Matt Kenseth

62.50

95.75

47.5

$8,400.00

Joey Logano

58.54

109.5

-15.25

$9,500.00

Martin Truex Jr./p>

51.79

102.5

21.5

$9,700.00

Kyle Busch

49.05

81.25

38.25

$9,400.00

Jimmie Johnson

49.04

78.25

-4

$10,100.00

Kasey Kahne

41.00

67.5

14.5

$7,800.00

Ryan Newman

36.58

52

29

$7,600.00

AJ Allmendinger

36.25

60.5

13

$6,200.00

Dale Earnhardt Jr./p>

35.50

64.25

-2.25

$8,300.00

Ryan Blaney

31.81

41.25

12

$8,000.00

Austin Dillon

31.08

49

-7

$7,500.00

Danica Patrick

30.75

41

18.5

$6,900.00

Chris Buescher

27.25

33.5

21

$6,500.00

Kyle Larson

26.79

82.5

-5.5

$9,900.00

Ricky Stenhouse Jr./p>

25.50

37

16

$7,400.00

Chase Elliott

24.25

41

7.5

$9,100.00

Kurt Busch

24.04

46.5

-15.5

$8,200.00

Ty Dillon

24.00

24

24

$6,700.00

Clint Bowyer

20.92

39

-10

$8,600.00

Trevor Bayne

20.38

35.5

6

$7,100.00

Matt DiBenedetto

19.69

29

8.75

$5,800.00

Paul Menard

19.46

39.5

-25

$6,600.00

Denny Hamlin

18.46

55

-26

$8,800.00

Brad Keselowski

18.42

52.75

-23.25

$10,700.00

Aric Almirola

17.75

40

-15

$6,400.00

Landon Cassill

17.42

37

-1

$5,200.00

Cole Whitt

17.17

37

3

$6,000.00

Reed Sorenson

16.40

22

10

$4,600.00

Michael McDowell

14.25

34

2

$5,700.00

Timmy Hill

12.00

18

6

$4,700.00

David Ragan

11.71

27

0

$5,400.00

Jamie McMurray

11.63

32

-20.5

$8,100.00

Erik Jones

-20.25

-20.25

-20.25

$7,700.00

Derrike Cope

 

 

 

$4,500.00

Jeffrey Earnhardt

 

 

 

$5,100.00

Gray Gaulding

 

 

 

$4,900.00

Corey LaJoie

 

 

 

$5,500.00

Daniel Suarez

 

 

 

$7,300.00

 

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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