Dan Beaver

Statistically Speaking

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GoBowling.com 400 Stats

Friday, May 12, 2017


This week’s race: GoBowling.com 400
Traditional Name: None
Other Notable Names: SpongeBob SquarePants 400, STP 400, 5-hour Energy 400

Kansas has hosted two races per season since 2011, so the record book is getting increasingly thick. Of the tracks that have multiple races, this one would supposedly have one of the biggest differences between their spring and fall events because the later race is held in the playoffs and that changes the dynamic considerably.

Quite the opposite was true last year, however. Five drivers swept the top 10, which in itself is not particularly remarkable, but four of those drivers finished within four positions in both races. Austin Dillon finished sixth in both events, Jamie McMurray was eighth in both, Kevin Harvick finished second in the spring and won the fall, while Kyle Busch won the spring and finished fifth in the fall.

Martin Truex Jr. finished 14th in the spring and was 11th in the fall. Ryan Newman backed up a spring seventh with a fall 12th, making this one of the more consistent courses on the circuit.

10 best drivers at Kansas

Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish on this track.

1. Kyle Busch
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 5.80 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 18.4 in 18 attempts

It took a while for Busch to figure out this track. He earned only two top-10s and no top-fives in his first 14 attempts, but that all changed in fall 2014. He finished third in the Hollywood Casino 400 and has swept the top-five since. He has also started in the top 10 in each of those races, so his fifth-place qualification effort this week is meaningful.

2. Kevin Harvick
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 5.83
Career avg. finish: 10.5 in 22 attempts

Harvick’s 5.83 average finish in the past three years is even more remarkable when one considers it is skewed by a 16th in fall 2015. Last fall’s victory was the second of his career and he also has three runner-up results that fall within his last-six average.

3. Joey Logano
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 8.67
Career avg. finish: 17.7 in 15 attempts

Logano would be probably top this chart if not for an accident in last spring’s GoBowling.com 400. He finished 38th in that event and that sticks out like a missing tooth when compared to a streak of top-fives dating back to fall 2013.

4. Matt Kenseth
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 9.33
Career avg. finish: 13.1 in 22 attempts

Kenseth and Logano are nose-to-tail at Kansas. We’ve seen that before on the track and it did not turn out so well for the driver of the No. 20. Kenseth needs something good to happen this week and that is well within the realm of possibility since he enters with a 13-race streak of top-15s that include back-to-back wins in 2012/2013.

5. Ryan Newman
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 9.50
Career avg. finish: 16.5 in 22 attempts

As usual, the Statistically Speaking column focuses on Newman’s consistency on a track. His last six Kansas attempts have ended in results of sixth through 12th and that makes him a very safe pick for the GoBowling.com 400.

6. Kasey Kahne
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 12.00
Career avg. finish: 13.4 in 19 attempts

Kahne has been uneven at Kansas in the past three years, but his strong runs have been enough to lift him into the top 10. A crash-damage influenced 22nd in fall 2014 pulls his average down while a third that spring and a fourth in fall 2015 lift him back up.

7. Jimmie Johnson (tied with Truex)
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 12.33
Career avg. finish: 8.9 in 21 attempts

Johnson is another driver who belongs higher on this list. Crash damage in the fall 2014 race relegated him to a 40th-place finish, but that is one of only four times in 21 starts that he has finished outside the top 10. Unfortunately, one of his other stumbles came last spring when he crossed under the checkers 17th.

7. Martin Truex Jr. (tied with Johnson)
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 12.33
Career avg. finish: 16.8 in 17 attempts

Like Newman, Truex is on this list because of consistency. He enters the weekend with a five-race streak of top-15s, but so much more has been expected of him that a single top-five in the past three years counts as a disappointment.

9. Ryan Blaney
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 13.25 (4 starts)
Career avg. finish: 13.3 in 4 attempts

Blaney made his first career start on this track in 2014. He experienced a hub problem that afternoon and finished 27th. Since then, he has swept the top 15 and if one ignored his inaugural debacle he would be tied with Logano for third on this list.

10. AJ Allmendinger
Last six races average finish at Kansas: 16.33
Career avg. finish: 21.1 in 15 attempts

The best way to make someone forget about a mistake like the one Allmendinger made last week in Talladega is to go out and score a top-10. Last year’s pair of eighths is joined by two more top-15s in the past three years for this team and driver. 

 

Rank

Driver

3 Yr. Avg. Finish

Attempts

1.

Kyle Busch

5.80

5

2.

Kevin Harvick

5.83

6

3.

Joey Logano

8.67

6

4.

Matt Kenseth

9.33

6

5.

Ryan Newman

9.50

6

6.

Kasey Kahne

12.00

6

7.

Jimmie Johnson

12.33

6

7.

Martin Truex Jr.

12.33

6

9.

Ryan Blaney

13.25

4

10.

AJ Allmendinger

16.33

6

 

11.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

16.60

5

12.

Kurt Busch

16.83

6

13.

Austin Dillon

17.00

6

14.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

18.33

6

14.

Danica Patrick

18.33

6

16.

Brad Keselowski

18.83

6

17.

Denny Hamlin

20.00

6

17.

Chase Elliott

20.00

2

19.

Kyle Larson

20.50

6

19.

Paul Menard

20.50

6

21.

Aric Almirola

22.00

6

22.

Chris Buescher

22.50

2

23.

Trevor Bayne

22.75

4

24.

Clint Bowyer

24.50

6

25.

Jamie McMurray

26.67

6

26.

Matt DiBenedetto

27.25

4

27.

Michael McDowell

30.25

4

28.

David Ragan

31.33

6

29.

Cole Whitt

31.83

6

30.

Landon Cassill

32.17

6

31.

Reed Sorenson

32.60

5

32.

Timmy Hill

39.00

3

 

 

Ty Dillon

26.00

1

 

Erik Jones

40.00

1

 

Brendan Gaughan

44.00

1

 

Exercise Caution

Most caution flags: 15, 2013 Hollywood Casino 400
Fewest caution flags: 3, 2012 STP 400
Average number of caution flags per race: 8.6
In 2017: 8.3

Final Caution, last five races:
October 2016: 235 of 267: one-car accident in turn three (Regan Smith)
May 2016: 242 of 267: 4-car accident in turn 4 (Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson)
October 2015: 264 of 267: “The Spin” Joey Logano spun Matt Kenseth from the lead after Kenseth pinched him into the wall; Kenseth would later retaliate and draw a penalty at Martinsville.
May 2015: 257 of 267: 1-car accident (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.)
October 2015: 237 of 267: 1-car accident, backstretch

Most caution laps: 71, 2013 Hollywood Casino 400
Fewest caution laps: 18, 2012 STP 400
Average number of caution laps per race: 40.4
In 2016: 47.2

Leading the way 

Most leaders: 14, 2009 Price Chopper 400 by Kraft Foods
Fewest leaders: 8, 2013 STP 400
Average number of leaders: 10.5
In 2016: 8.7

Most lead changes: 26, 2009 Price Chopper 400 by Kraft Foods
Fewest lead changes: 13 (2times), 2013 STP 400, 2002 Protection One 400
Average number of lead changes: 18.9
In 2016: 18.4

Victory Lane

Last five winners at Kansas (starting position):
October 2016: Kevin Harvick (11)
May 2016: Kyle Busch (6)
October 2015: Joey Logano (14)
May 2015: Jimmie Johnson (19)
October 2014: Joey Logano (4)

Worst starting position for race winner: 25th, Brad Keselowski: STP 400

A race at Kansas has been won by the pole sitter 4 times and from the front row 5 times in 22 races.

Recent races won from the pole:
October 2013: Kevin Harvick, Hollywood Casino 400
April 2013: Matt Kenseth, STP 400
September 2008: Jimmie Johnson, Camping World RV 400 by Coleman
October 2004: Joe Nemechek, Banquet 400 by Con Agra Foods

Active winners at Kansas
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Joey Logano: 2
Matt Kenseth: 2
Kevin Harvick: 2
Denny Hamlin: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
Ryan Newman: 1
Kyle Busch: 1

Top-10 All-time Winners:
Jimmie Johnson: 3
Jeff Gordon: 3
Joey Logano: 2
Tony Stewart: 2
Matt Kenseth: 2
Greg Biffle: 2
Kevin Harvick: 2
Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, and Joe Nemechek (1 each).

First time winners at Kansas:
None, Brad Keselowski earned his second win in the 2011 STP 400

Similarly-configured, 1.5- and two-mile tracks (Kansas, Atlanta, Charlotte, Texas, Las Vegas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
All time
Jimmie Johnson: 27
Jeff Gordon: 16
Dale Earnhardt, Sr. 14
Tony Stewart: 12
Matt Kenseth: 11
Richard Petty: 11
Bobby Allison: 11
Cale Yarborough: 10
Mark Martin: 10
Carl Edwards: 10
Brad Keselowski: 10

Running at the End

The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Kansas race they started:
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (8)
Cole Whitt (7)
Trevor Bayne (5)
Ryan Blaney (4)
Matt DiBenedetto (4)
Chris Buescher (2)
Chase Elliott (2)
Ty Dillon (1)
Erik Jones (1)

Brad Keselowski crashed on lap 190 of the fall 2016 race and snapped a 13-race streak of running at the end.

Great Starts

Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Ryan Newman: 2 (2001* and again in 2002; he won in 2003)
Jamie McMurray: 7 (2003 and again in 2004)
Chase Elliott: 9 (2016)
AJ Allmendinger: 9 (2008)
Clint Bowyer: 9 (2006)
Kurt Busch: 9 (2001*)
Jimmie Johnson: 10 (2002)
* inaugural race

Jimmie Johnson started on the outside pole in his first start in 2002.
Kasey Kahne started on the outside pole in his first start in 2004.

Current Streaks

At Kansas
Kyle Busch, four top-fives
Kevin Harvick, two top-fives
Matt Kenseth, two top-10s
Austin Dillon, two top-10s
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. two top-10s

Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks (Charlotte, Atlanta, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, Chicagoland, and Kentucky)
Joey Logano, five top-10s
Chase Elliott, four top-10s
Martin Truex Jr., four top-10s
Kyle Larson, three second-place finishes
Brad Keselowski, three top-10s
Jamie McMurray, three top-10s

In 2017
Ricky Stenhouse Jr., three top-10s
Brad Keselowski, two top-10s
Jamie McMurray, two top-10s
Kurt Busch, two top-10s
Aric Almirola, two top-10s

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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