Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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DFS: Michigan (Spring)

Thursday, June 15, 2017


Draft Kings

This week, 12 drivers are above Draft Kings’ midline of $8,333, but several of them only slightly so. Fantasy owners have a lot of affordable options and can work their way from the top down or bottom up depending on what suits them.

The seventh-most expensive driver in the game at $9,400, Chase Elliott should anchor this week’s roster. Last year he came within one restart of winning both Michigan International Speedway races and the result of these strong runs was an average of 72.75 Draft Kings points. This was not an anomaly as he scored 71.25 in the spring and 74.25 in the fall. On the heels of Ryan Blaney’s victory last week at Pocono Raceway, NASCAR could usher in another first-time winner in back-to-back races.

While cap considerations are not the primary concern this week, that does not mean they are of no concern whatsoever, so it pays to balance out the budget immediately. Michigan has been kind to Joe Gibbs Racing in the past and there is a strong likelihood that one of their drivers could contend for a victory in the FireKeepers Casino 400. Strange as it may sound, that racer could very well be their rookie Daniel Suarez. This track has been kind to first time drivers in the past, but even if he does not win, a potential top-10 or even -15 is worth his $7,500 price tag.

Having Elliott and Suarez on the roster brings the player back to about the original average available per driver.

When one finds a good bargain, it pays to snap him up. Paul Menard once had a nine-race, top-10 streak on two-mile tracks to his credit. He has slipped slightly in the past two seasons and could only muster an 18th last year, but he is galvanized to run well in light of wins scored by teammates Ryan Newman and Austin Dillon. Menard costs $6,500 and will help free up some cap room at the top.

Players who really want to take a risk might wish to jump all the way to the bottom of the price list and select Cole Whitt. The fifth-cheapest driver in the game at $4,900, he opens up the opportunity to take absolutely anyone at the top. In the past six races on this track, he has averaged 24 points and his least productive race netted 13. Mostly he has been in a narrow range of 25 to 30 points and that is acceptable at his price.  

Kyle Larson is the most expensive driver this week at $10,200. He is well worth the price as the defending winner of not only the last Michigan race in summer 2016, but also the last two-miler at Auto Club Speedway this spring. This is the type of track that suits his driving style because the corners are wide and the banking allows him to run against the wall. The Pure Michigan 400 win came down to Larson and Elliott last August and could very well do so again this week.

Statistically, Joey Logano would be the next best pick but he is riding a five-race streak of results outside the top 20. For that reason, we suggest Brad Keselowski instead. Both Penske pals enter the weekend with nine-race streaks of top-10s on two-mile tracks and both have the right power band to potentially dominate the race if they find a manageable setup.

 

Driver

Avg. Points

Attempts

Maximum

Minimum

Michigan 1 Cap

Chase Elliott

72.75

2

74.25

71.25

$9,400

Joey Logano

59.25

6

106

34.5

$9,200

Kevin Harvick

53.92

6

76.25

12.25

$9,900

Brad Keselowski

47.92

6

67

34

$9,700

Matt Kenseth

44.71

6

120

-14

$8,900

Paul Menard

40.71

6

45

28.5

$6,500

Kyle Larson

39.04

6

83.75

-29

$10,200

Jimmie Johnson

38.13

6

77.75

-23

$9,800

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

37.01

6

64

-7

$7,800

Jamie McMurray

36.83

6

55

25

$8,200

Kurt Busch

34.21

6

73

0.75

$8,500

Ryan Newman

34.21

6

45.5

20.75

$7,200

Kasey Kahne

31.92

6

49.25

18.25

$7,700

Martin Truex Jr.

29.13

6

72

-14

$10,000

Ty Dillon

28.50

2

40

17

$6,100

Danica Patrick

25.92

6

37

17

$6,200

Denny Hamlin

25.67

6

51.5

-16

$8,600

Clint Bowyer

24.54

6

56

-25.25

$6,800

Austin Dillon

24.17

6

53.75

3.5

$7,600

Cole Whitt

24.00

6

30

13

$4,900

Trevor Bayne

22.92

6

46

-10

$6,400

AJ Allmendinger

22.83

6

40.5

-12

$6,600

Reed Sorenson

20.75

4

30

11

$5,000

Ryan Blaney

19.38

4

43.5

2

$8,700

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

18.00

6

27

-2

$7,100

Michael McDowell

17.00

1

17

17

$5,500

David Ragan

16.17

6

35

-8

$6,300

Landon Cassill

12.92

6

29

-1

$5,200

Matt DiBenedetto

11.50

4

16

7

$5,300

Chris Buescher

10.75

2

26.5

-5

$5,900

Jeffrey Earnhardt

9.00

2

10

8

$4,500

Timmy Hill

1.00

1

1

1

$4,700

Kyle Busch

-5.25

6

31

-32

$9,500

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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