Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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DFS: Watkins Glen

Thursday, August 3, 2017


Road courses play by their own rules. Drivers who run well on them do not uniformly run well on all courses. As tempting as it is to take a risk on specialists, they are just as subject to the whims of strategy as the marquee racers and they are nearly as risky.

Still, there are a few salary cap values that come to mind on road courses as a way to stretch the cap, and they have to be considered.

One of our favorite road course specialists each time the series heads to a twisty track is Michael McDowell. His average points during the past three Draft Kings contests at the Glen are not breathtaking, but that is because of a bad race in 2014. His last two efforts earned the 14th-most markers in 2015 and 25th-most in 2016, which is not bad for a driver commanding $7,100. He is much stronger overall this year than in the past and that makes him a safer pick than ever before.

Last year, Trevor Bayne recorded the second-most points in the Draft Kings game. The 58 he banked was certainly impressive, but he also logged 34.5 the year previously—and that made him the 15th-most productive. Like McDowell, Bayne has shown improvement in 2017. Better still, the cap managers do not seem to have noticed and he can be signed for $6,100 this week. Adding those two drivers to one’s roster early, makes the decision easier above the midline mark of $8,333.

Matt Kenseth is not the first driver who comes to mind on road courses. In fact, we often say that he is a driver to avoid on this course type because of an inclination toward trouble. He garnered the second-most points in 2015, however, and has been consistent in his other two efforts during the past three years. He is also priced below the midline with a value of $7,900 and that allows fantasy players to spend about $9,600 on each of their next three picks.

With that in mind, it’s time to move the slider all the way to the top and decide which stud you want to take. Kyle Busch is expensive, but now that he has broken into Victory Lane, he is probably worth taking. He is a streaky driver who would be likely to carry his momentum forward despite his record on this track type. That record is stellar, however, with a current streak of five road course top-seven results. Unfortunately, he will set you back $10,300.

Embattled would be a great way to describe Joey Logano since he won at Richmond International Raceway. Nothing seems to go his way and the harder this team tries, the worse they seem to run. Road courses are not where one typically come in an effort to reverse their fortune, but this week could be an exception for the No. 22 team. It should be easier to get into a rhythm here than on most ovals and Logano has six top-10s, an 11th, and a 12th in his last nine road course races. He desperately needs a win, however, and that could make him take a gamble that results in snake eyes.

The final pick comes down to Kevin Harvick at $10,000 or Brad Keselowski at $9,800. Both have stellar road course records, so players might want to wait until the last minute and make their decision based on qualification and who is most likely to earn positive place-differential points. For the moment, we are going to lean toward Harvick since he won this June at Sonoma Raceway and has five results of seventh or better in the last six races on this track type. 

 

Driver

Avg. Points

Maximum

Minimum

Watkins Glen Cap

Joey Logano

52.58

63.75

43

$8,600

Trevor Bayne

46.25

58

34.5

$6,100

Kurt Busch

44.58

49

39.75

$9,600

Matt Kenseth

42.33

62.5

30.5

$7,900

AJ Allmendinger

37.75

62.5

4.75

$8,800

Danica Patrick

37.25

44

32

$5,900

Brad Keselowski

34.58

65.5

-12

$9,800

Chase Elliott

34.50

34.5

34.5

$8,100

Clint Bowyer

33.33

50

13.5

$9,500

Aric Almirola

30.33

34

24

$6,200

Martin Truex Jr./p>

29.83

44.75

2.75

$10,500

Dale Earnhardt Jr./p>

29.50

30

29

$8,000

Kyle Busch

28.08

55.75

-17

$10,300

Kevin Harvick

27.92

54.25

-5

$10,000

Paul Menard

26.17

46

-0.5

$7,000

Kyle Larson

25.50

58.5

-11

$9,000

Ryan Blaney

25.00

25

25

$8,200

Landon Cassill

24.67

38

10

$5,200

Denny Hamlin

23.50

55.5

3

$9,200

Kasey Kahne

19.92

49.75

-17

$7,700

David Ragan

17.33

31

4

$4,900

Jamie McMurray

16.00

38

-19

$8,400

Matt DiBenedetto

15.00

19

11

$5,400

Michael McDowell

14.67

35

-12

$7,100

Ricky Stenhouse Jr./p>

9.33

24

-2

$6,000

Ryan Newman

8.67

34

-28

$7,500

Austin Dillon

8.00

42

-18

$6,700

Cole Whitt

6.83

35.5

-25

$5,000

Chris Buescher

5.50

9

2

$6,900

Jimmie Johnson

1.50

34

-22.5

$9,300

Ty Dillon

 

 

 

$6,300

Erik Jones

 

 

 

$6,500

Corey LaJoie

 

 

 

$5,500

Daniel Suarez

 

 

 

$7,300

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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