Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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Caps After Darlington (Summer)

Tuesday, September 5, 2017


Erik Jones is settling into a great rhythm. Since the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona International Speedway in early June, he has been one of the best values in the game, earning top-10s in seven of the last nine races. The only times that he failed to finish that well was because of problems at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Indianapolis Motor Speedway. His last three efforts netted top-fives and it seems like only a matter of time before he wins. It was an easy decision to bump him 50 cents to $23.50.

Denny Hamlin is closing in on the top spots in terms of salary caps, so he could take an increase of only 25 cents this week. His victory in last week’s Southern 500 was the eighth time in the past 11 races that he finished in the top five and an argument could be made that he should be the most expensive driver in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game. The only thing keeping him at $27.50 instead of $28 or greater is three sub-10th-place finishes in that same span of races and the fact that he has not earned three consecutive top-10s all year.

Danica Patrick continues to rise in terms of salary caps, but she is still one of the better bargains overall. While she has not had a particularly good showing in her last two outings—with a 25th at Bristol Motor Speedway and a 26th at Darlington Raceway—the cumulative effect of her efforts since the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway is worth noting. She can be signed for $11.75 this week.

Hendrick Motorsports continues to struggle to post Fantasy NASCAR points. All four of their drivers took a cut this week and none of them have found their natural level based on raw performance. Chase Elliott took the least extreme cut at 25 cents to $25.75, while Jimmie Johnson (who fell to $23.75), Kasey Kahne ($15.00), and Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($13.75) each took 50 cent cuts. There is the possibility that they will take a hard bounce in the next few weeks and if that happens, they will quickly become great values.

Elliott was part of a shuffling at the top of the order. So were Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski who dropped to $27.25 and $26 respectively in order to allow others to gain in cap value. These minor adjustments don’t mean much by themselves, but they signal a trend that fantasy players want to note because once a driver starts to lose ground, they often continue on that path. If Larson or Keselowski is on your roster, renegotiate their price and make certain that you pay attention to them weekly.

Over the past six weeks, Joey Logano has steadily fallen from $26.25 to $23.25. He’s not done yet as this team has been in a tailspin since they were deemed to have an encumbered finish at Richmond International Raceway in the spring. It would take a miracle for them to win this week and that means Logano is going to miss the playoffs. Once that happens, expect them to become progressively cheaper.

Driver

Diff

 |

 2524 cap

Gainers

Erik Jones

 $     0.50

 |

 $     23.50

Denny Hamlin

 $     0.25

 |

 $     27.50

Matt Kenseth

 $     0.25

 |

 $     27.25

Jamie McMurray

 $     0.25

 |

 $     26.25

Daniel Suarez

 $     0.25

 |

 $     23.00

Ryan Newman

 $     0.25

 |

 $     22.75

Kurt Busch

 $     0.25

 |

 $     20.00

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     19.25

Trevor Bayne

 $     0.25

 |

 $     18.50

Chris Buescher

 $     0.25

 |

 $     14.50

AJ Allmendinger

 $     0.25

 |

 $     12.00

Danica Patrick

 $     0.25

 |

 $     11.75

Losers

Kyle Larson

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.25

Brad Keselowski

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     26.00

Chase Elliott

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     25.75

Joey Logano

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     23.25

Ryan Blaney

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     17.25

Ty Dillon

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     16.50

Paul Menard

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     13.50

Aric Almirola

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     12.00

Carl Long

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       4.75

Jimmie Johnson

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     23.75

Kasey Kahne

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     15.00

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     13.75

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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