Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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Caps After New Hampshire (Fall

Tuesday, September 26, 2017


As the season winds down, there are increasingly fewer opportunities to make changes to the salary caps. There are not very many opportunities to rationalize away a modest or poor finish with the excuse that a driver had an off week. Conversely, one good result in a sea of sub-20s can no longer keep the cap manager from adjusting the values down.

This week, fantasy players will see a vast number of 25 cent increases and decreases. Very few racers were unaffected and most of the moves were in an effort to bring the driver to a natural place on the valuation chart.

Working at the top of the chart can be tricky. Is Kyle Larson with a price tag of $27.75 really all that much better than Denny Hamlin who fell 25 cents to $27.50 in order to allow the No. 42 to move up? It depends on the track, how each racer rolls off the hauler this coming week at Dover International Speedway, and how their strategy plays out during a Apache Warrior 400 by Lucas Oil. On the other hand, does that quarter really matter? Only if it keeps you from taking one mid-tier driver versus another and in Fantasy NASCAR much like the real race, little difference can make a big difference.

The same thing happened between Kyle Busch who increased 25 cents to $27.50 and Kevin Harvick who fell 25 cents to $27.25. Busch rebounded nicely from the penalty he incurred at Chicagoland Speedway to win last week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Harvick was spun out by a driver with whom he has a rocky history and through no immediate fault of his own, he cost players a lot of points. Those two scenarios are unlikely to recur this week, but with eight events remaining in the playoffs, it is quite possible they will happen again at some point in 2017.

Chase Elliott has been strong all season, but a little erratic at times. In order to achieve and maintain salary caps greater than $25 in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game, one must consistently achieve top-10 points. That does not always mean top-10 finishes, however. There is also the matter of how drivers around you are performing and Elliott comes is a good value in both regards. That is likely to continue this week as he has never finished outside the top five in three previous Dover attempts.

We predicted this would happen: Erik Jones bounced back immediately from his 33rd-place finish at Chicagoland to record his seventh top-10 finish in the past eight races. Take away the one dissenting result and his average in that span of events is 5.7; he finished sixth at New Hampshire. He was only 15th this spring in the AAA 400, but he has a lot more experience and momentum on his side for the Apache Warrior 400.

Last week’s major accident swept up Harvick and Kurt Busch. Danica Patrick is officially a lame duck and all that negativity has to affect the attitude at Stewart-Haas Racing. In part, it factored into the decision to lower Clint Bowyer by 25 cents to $24.25. That is still a significant commitment of resources and Bowyer is a strong driver. But now that he has failed to qualify for the playoffs, a reallocation of resources into Harvick’ and Busch’s cars could impact this team. 

 

Driver

Diff

 |

This Week’s Caps

Gainers

Kyle Larson

 $     0.25

 |

 $     27.75

Kyle Busch

 $     0.25

 |

 $     27.50

Jamie McMurray

 $     0.25

 |

 $     26.25

Chase Elliott

 $     0.25

 |

 $     25.75

Erik Jones

 $     0.25

 |

 $     24.50

Ryan Newman

 $     0.25

 |

 $     23.75

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     20.00

Ty Dillon

 $     0.25

 |

 $     17.25

Ryan Blaney

 $     0.25

 |

 $     17.00

Chris Buescher

 $     0.25

 |

 $     15.25

Paul Menard

 $     0.25

 |

 $     13.75

Danica Patrick

 $     0.25

 |

 $     12.75

Aric Almirola

 $     0.25

 |

 $     11.75

Michael McDowell

 $     0.25

 |

 $     10.75

David Ragan

 $     0.25

 |

 $       7.75

Corey Lajoie

 $     0.25

 |

 $       5.25

Losers

Denny Hamlin

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.50

Kevin Harvick

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.25

Brad Keselowski

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     25.50

Clint Bowyer

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     24.25

Jimmie Johnson

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     23.00

Joey Logano

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     22.75

Daniel Suarez

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     22.75

Austin Dillon

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     21.25

Trevor Bayne

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     17.75

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     12.75

AJ Allmendinger

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     11.25

Landon Cassill

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       5.25

Matt DiBenedetto

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       4.75

Kasey Kahne

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     13.50

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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