Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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DFS: Dover (Summer)

Friday, September 29, 2017


Draft Kings

Like New Hampshire last week, Dover International Speedway is one of those tracks on which it pays dividends to look for one’s Fantasy Stud first. This week, it’s hard to go against Chase Elliott. True, it has been only three races but the driver of the No. 24 has a perfect record of top-fives. He is poised to win this season—we swear it’s going to happen sometime in 2017—and when it does, his salary cap will rise. For now, $9,200 is a small price to pay for a driver who may earn maximum points.

 

That means players are going to have to dip down further the order to take another marquee driver. This week, one of the best values is Ryan Newman. This is the type of track that suits his driving style. He is a bulldog and this is a track that sometimes rewards that kind of aggression—if the racer can get ahead of any trouble that erupts. Newman was listed as a driver likely to fail to make the next round of the playoffs in this week’s Chasing article if he experiences any trouble, but there is a strong likelihood that he will manage to run a clean race. His price tag of $7,200 is very affordable.

The driver we thought might displace Newman in round two is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. He struggled early in practice, but stepped up his performance when qualification rolled around. A top-10 in race trim is possible and if that happens, he will add at least five place-differential points to his total. That could make a difference in winning money this week or falling to the bottom half of 50/50 games.

Before players get the pitch forks and torches out… consider this. Danica Patrick has scored top-15 finishes in three of the last five Dover races. The downside of that is all those strong runs came in the spring instead of the fall, but there is no real appreciable difference between the track conditions in these two events. If you want to roll the dice, Patrick could be a great differentiator because she is not going to be on many rosters.

Better still, by taking Patrick at $6,100, the needle moves to $9,950 for the remaining two drivers. There are only four drivers above that mark, so players who want to switch their focus to taking the next marquee drivers can do so with very little angst.

It is difficult to bet against Martin Truex Jr. on any track, but he has really stepped up to the plate on his home track. He won this race last year and finished third this spring to enter the Apache Warrior 400 with back-to-back top-fives. When he misses, it’s not by much and he has eight straight top-15s and an average finish of 7.25 in that span. He will lead a lot of laps and be one of the top-five values this week.

Since Truex is the most expensive driver in the game, that means one more tough decision needs to be made. Luckily, Erik Jones is here to make certain that the decision doesn’t have to cause a lot of concern. With a price tag of $8,600, he fits comfortably into the final slot. This summer, he finished only 15th in the first Dover race, but no one will be surprised to see him perform better now that he has some laps under his belt on this tricky, tricky, track.

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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