Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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Caps After Dover (Fall)

Wednesday, October 4, 2017


When Jeffrey Earnhardt crashed into the sand barrels at the end of pit road last week at Dover International Speedway and stranded the majority of the field a lap down, it had the potential to radically affect fantasy rosters. NASCAR’s policies of Wave Arounds and Free Passes allowed almost everyone to get back into position, however, and the cream rose back to the top.

Specifically, Kyle Busch was that cream. He had a fast car all afternoon; in fact, he has had a fast car since the start of the playoffs and if not for a penalty at Chicagoland Speedway to start this round of three, he might have been able to sweep the events. Last week, he had just enough time to chase down the No. 24 and make an effortless pass on the outside, so he received a 25 cent raise in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game to $27.75.

Chase Elliott was the most disappointed driver in the Apache Warrior 400 field. He seemingly had the race in his pocket, but could not work traffic as well as Busch in a loose car. Still, he earned the most points in this contest by a margin of 57 over third-place Busch and 12 over Kyle Larson. This was Elliott’s best opportunity to win for the remainder of the season, but it is not the last time he is going to earn maximum points. Elliott can be signed for $26.

Erik Jones did not earned consecutive top-10s at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Dover as we suspected he would, but his 12th-place finish was not bad. It was his eighth top-12 in the past nine races and establishes him as one of the top non-playoff contenders. That means he is now priced at $25 and becoming one of the marquee selections.

Along with Daniel Suarez—who is more moderately priced at $22.50—the rookies are place-and-hold drivers especially if you picked them up for a lower price.

Two drivers suffered 50 cent decreases this week. Aric Almirola fell to $11.25 while Kasey Kahne dropped to $13. One could point to individual events in which they struggled, but the biggest reason for the adjustment has been that they are not performing over the long haul. Kahne especially shows glimpses of speed, but it does not seem to be sustainable—and something always seems to happen to Almirola before the end of the race to force him off the lead lap.

Larson, Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, and Matt Kenseth each took 25 cent decreases this week to amounts ranging from $27.50 to $26.75. This was done more as a way of reallocating the top of the order than as a punishment for any specific bad performances. Fantasy players with those drivers selected have an opportunity to renegotiate the salary and save 25 cents and each of them will be a slightly better value as a result. 

Driver

Diff

 |

This Week’s Caps

Gainers

Erik Jones

 $     0.50

 |

 $     25.00

Danica Patrick

 $     0.50

 |

 $     13.25

Kyle Busch

 $     0.25

 |

 $     27.75

Chase Elliott

 $     0.25

 |

 $     26.00

Ryan Newman

 $     0.25

 |

 $     24.00

Austin Dillon

 $     0.25

 |

 $     21.50

Kurt Busch

 $     0.25

 |

 $     20.75

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     20.25

Ty Dillon

 $     0.25

 |

 $     17.50

Paul Menard

 $     0.25

 |

 $     14.00

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     13.00

David Ragan

 $     0.25

 |

 $       8.00

Landon Cassill

 $     0.25

 |

 $       5.50

Matt DiBenedetto

 $     0.25

 |

 $       5.00

Losers

Kyle Larson

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.50

Denny Hamlin

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.25

Kevin Harvick

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.00

Matt Kenseth

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     26.75

Clint Bowyer

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     24.00

Joey Logano

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     22.50

Daniel Suarez

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     22.50

Trevor Bayne

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     17.50

Chris Buescher

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     15.00

AJ Allmendinger

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     11.00

Michael McDowell

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     10.50

Corey Lajoie

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       5.00

Kasey Kahne

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     13.00

Aric Almirola

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     11.25

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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