Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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Caps After Talladega (Fall)

Tuesday, October 17, 2017


This week, there were more gainers than losers in terms of sheer numbers, but four of the drivers who lost value dropped by 50 cents, so the net effect was a slight reduction overall.

At top of the order, practically no adjustments for the top eight drivers because their relative position is where they should be. And with five races remaining—on a two varieties of tracks—there will still be some movement among the most expensive drivers. Players can expect those to be relatively minimal, however; Martin Truex Jr. Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson are going to be expensive, but they are also going to produce a lot of points.

Chase Elliott is the driver who has the capability of crashing their party. He has been getting progressively stronger as the season winds down as can be evidenced by the fact that he has four runner-up finishes during the playoffs. He was challenging for the lead in a severely reduced field last week before he got involved in an accident that sent him behind the wall for good, but the coming similarly-configured, 1.5-mile and short, flat tracks have been kind the Hendrick Motorsports. He increased to $26.50, and may yet get over the $27 mark—which might displace some of the other expensive drivers.

Brad Keselowski was another high-profile driver who took a pay increase last week. He jumped 25 cents to $25.75 and that had almost nothing to do with his victory. Note that sentence says “almost nothing,” because his winning the Alabama 500 has given him an automatic berth into the third round. Six bonus points last week will help him make his way to Homestead-Miami Speedway with a shot at the championship and that should improve the performance of this team.

The three top rookies all took .25 cent increases this week as well. Freshmen are supposed to get better as the season goes along so Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, and Ty Dillon have performed according to the accepted pattern. Jones is the most expensive with a price tag of $25.50 because he is the most likely driver to win on an unrestricted track, but fantasy players should look for Suarez ($22.75) and Dillon ($18) to outpace their salary caps.

The four drivers who took the big dips this week were Trevor Bayne (to $16.75), Chris Buescher ($14.25), Michael McDowell ($10.25), and AJ Allmendinger ($10). Each of them showed promise at stages of the season and increased beyond their natural level. Bayne has the potential to outperform at Kansas Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, and Homestead; Allmendinger can run strong at Martinsville Speedway, but it might be a stretch to think of McDowell and Buescher to find their way on many rosters.

Ryan Newman was the costliest driver who lost ground this week. He was lucky at times and strong when he needed to be at Talladega, but he has been hit by bad luck often enough during the playoffs that fantasy owners are nervous about adding him to the roster. The short flat tracks of Martinsville and Phoenix International Raceway are going to be good opportunities to capitalize on his bullish personality.

 

Gainers and Losers this week

Driver

Diff.

 |

This Week’s Caps

Gainers

Chase Elliott

 $0.25

 |

 $26.50

Brad Keselowski

 $0.25

 |

 $25.75

Erik Jones

 $0.25

 |

 $25.50

Jimmie Johnson

 $0.25

 |

 $23.25

Daniel Suarez

 $0.25

 |

 $22.75

Kurt Busch

 $0.25

 |

 $21.25

Ty Dillon

 $0.25

 |

 $18.00

Paul Menard

 $0.25

 |

 $14.25

Danica Patrick

 $0.25

 |

 $13.75

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 $0.25

 |

 $13.50

David Ragan

 $0.25

 |

 $8.50

Landon Cassill

 $0.25

 |

 $6.00

Losers

Ryan Newman

 $(0.25)

 |

 $24.00

Clint Bowyer

 $(0.25)

 |

 $23.50

Austin Dillon

 $(0.25)

 |

 $21.25

Ryan Blaney

 $(0.25)

 |

 $17.00

Kasey Kahne

 $(0.25)

 |

 $12.50

Aric Almirola

 $(0.25)

 |

 $10.50

Trevor Bayne

 $(0.50)

 |

 $16.75

Chris Buescher

 $(0.50)

 |

 $14.25

Michael McDowell

 $(0.50)

 |

 $10.25

AJ Allmendinger

 $(0.50)

 |

 $10.00

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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