Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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DFS: Kansas (Fall)

Friday, October 20, 2017


Draft Kings

Last week’s Alabama 500 lived up to its billing. It was the consummate wild card with only a dozen cars running at the end of the afternoon. Marquee teams in the playoffs, dark horses, and drivers with excellent restrictor-plate records were all affected. The winner seemed more like a winning contestant on Survivor than a Cup victor.

If your lineup survived: congratulations; if it did not, it’s time to reload and try to recoup your losses.

The similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks are much more predictable overall  since they make up nearly 25 percent of the schedule. Of course, the designers of Draft Kings’ game know that as well, so the most popular options are the most expensive.

There are still bargains to be had, however, and they will need to be part of the lineup in order to afford the most expensive driver in the field.

As has been the case for much of the year, the top two Rookie of the Year contenders are more than capable of earning top-10s. Since they are first-year drivers, however, it is difficult to accurately predict how they will run on a given week and that has keep their value manageable. The balance has been in their favor, however, with 12 top-10s so far in 2017 going to Jones and 14 to Suarez. With a price tag of $8,000 for Jones and $7,400 for Suarez, they are well below the midline and should be activated.

Ryan Newman also has 14 top-10 to his credit and he is priced in the same general range at the rookie contenders. He got into trouble early at Charlotte a couple of weeks ago, but he survived the Talladega carnage and salvaged a decent result. He might not feel bulletproof, but he should feel at least a little lucky and that will put an added spring in his step. He can be signed for $7,600, which moves the needle to $9,000 for the remaining three drivers.

Ryan Blaney’s qualification time for the Hollywood Casino 400 was disallowed before the roster was set and that means he will drop back to 40th to start the event. While that is going to hurt his odds of winning and maybe even advancing to round three of the playoffs, it is a gift to fantasy owners because he is all-but guaranteed to earn positive place-differential points. He could rise to the top 10 even, which will make him a well-rounded pick with a $8,500 price tag.

Trevor Bayne has not been great on every track this year, but he has shown a lot of promise on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks with five top-15s and a 16th in eight races. He stumbled at Kentucky Speedway and Chicagoland Speedway, but his consistency otherwise recommends him highly for this week’s Hollywood Casino 400. The only potential danger is that teammate Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is still in the playoff hunt and that could syphon off significant resources.

Being stingy with the first five picks means that players can afford to take Martin Truex Jr. With six wins on this track type in 2017—including the last three on the schedule, he has picked up maximum points more often than any of his competitors and there is every likelihood he is going to do so again. Yes, he is the most expensive driver at $10,800, but players might not be able to win without him on the roster.

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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