Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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Caps After Kansas (Fall)

Tuesday, October 24, 2017


Often at this stage of the season, there are some big moves still to be made in the NASCAR Fantasy Live salary caps. With four races remaining, there aren’t many opportunities to get things just right, so drivers who are far off the mark get moved 50 or even 75 cents in an effort to close that gap. This week, however, there were only 25 cent changes among 23 drivers; 13 experienced gains and 10 took a pay cut.

Under another points’ structure, Martin Truex Jr. would be considered the favorite to win the championship. If he could take the bonus points with him to Homestead-Miami Speedway, he would be almost impossible to catch, but he still has to get that race setup perfect. Fantasy players don’t particularly care, however, because he is earning maximum points with enough regularity to put him over the $28 mark at $28.25.

Brad Keselowski is still a relatively good value with a 25 cent increase to $26. He didn’t make as much noise as everyone would have liked, but a 13th-place finish in the Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway was his eighth consecutive top-15. Only two of these were top-fives, however, and that keeps him from being at the very top of the order.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. bottomed out entering the Apache Warrior 400 at Dover International Speedway. He could be signed for $12.75 for that race, but has slowly shown signs of improvement and now is priced a full $1 more. This team is still not capable of scoring top-fives at will, but three seventh-place finishes in the past four races and a 12th are an indicator that he should be placed-and-held while his cap rises over the next three weeks.

Daniel Suarez has been one of the go-to racers for much of the second half of the season and the result of that was that his cap value steadily increased above the $22 mark. He was involved in a late-race accident at Talladega SuperSpeedway two weeks ago and that cannot be held against him. But, he was also an innocent bystander at Kansas last week as well. Back-to-back crashes could take some of the wind out of this team’s sails, so he dropped to $22.50.

Likewise, Jamie McMurray has lost some of his attractiveness on the heels of two accidents in the past two weeks. He entered the Geico 500 with a nine-race streak of top-15s before he got run into while trying to pit on the superspeedway. His fans have confidence that he will rebound, but fantasy players with him on their roster will want to renegotiate his salary to take advantage of the extra 25 cents that a cap of $26.25 offers.

Ryan Newman’s only strong run in the past three weeks came in the wild card restrictor-plate, superspeedway race at Talladega. His runner-up finish in that event was a gift to players with faith in the bulldoggish driver, but if he was left activated for another week, his crash in the Hollywood Casino 400 robbed them of any gains. Newman also sustained heavy damage at Charlotte Motor Speedway three weeks ago and falls to $23.75 as a result.  

 

Driver

Diff

 |

This Week’s Caps

Gainers

Martin Truex Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     28.25

Kevin Harvick

 $     0.25

 |

 $     27.25

Brad Keselowski

 $     0.25

 |

 $     26.00

Jimmie Johnson

 $     0.25

 |

 $     23.50

Joey Logano

 $     0.25

 |

 $     22.75

Austin Dillon

 $     0.25

 |

 $     21.50

Kurt Busch

 $     0.25

 |

 $     21.50

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     20.75

Paul Menard

 $     0.25

 |

 $     14.50

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     13.75

Kasey Kahne

 $     0.25

 |

 $     12.75

David Ragan

 $     0.25

 |

 $       8.75

Landon Cassill

 $     0.25

 |

 $       6.25

Losers

Jamie McMurray

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     26.25

Ryan Newman

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     23.75

Clint Bowyer

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     23.25

Daniel Suarez

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     22.50

Trevor Bayne

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     16.50

Chris Buescher

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     14.00

Danica Patrick

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     13.50

Aric Almirola

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     10.25

Michael McDowell

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     10.00

Corey Lajoie

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       5.00

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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