Dan Beaver

Cap Considerations

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Caps After Phoenix (Fall)

Tuesday, November 14, 2017


The final race of the season is here are there is only one more opportunity for you to catch your competition.

That also means that the opportunities to make changes to the cap values have all but disappeared. As a result, we made some big swings in order to get drivers to a value that reflects exactly how they will run in the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

There is no next week to play wait-and-see.

Martin Truex Jr. remains the best value in the NASCAR Fantasy Live game with consistent top-five points’ days. Last week at Phoenix International Raceway should have been the one track on which he struggled, but he battled hard for a top-three finish. He is the most expensive driver in the game at $28.50—and is still going to have a good points-to-price ratio.

Kevin Harvick was the biggest mover this week. He jumped 75 cents in order to become the second-most expensive driver. A big part of the reason for that is his position as one of the Championship Four. The reason he was $27.25 entering the Can Am 500 is because he has not been dominant all season long, but with three consecutive top-fives that includes a win on the 1.5-mile Texas Motor Speedway, he is peaking at the right time.

Chase Elliott was the other big mover in terms of price increase this week. He realizes a need to become a better closer and that was never more apparent than last week when he got passed with 10 laps remaining at Phoenix. It cost him a spot in the Championship Four – but it also made him extremely hungry to get that final win before the season ends. He could play the role of spoiler in the Ford 400. Then again, he could get his fifth second-place finish in 10 playoff races. Either scenario makes him worthy of $27.25.

The biggest value losers this week were all significant.

Joey Logano has had an up and down season. His value started high because he carried momentum with him from 2016, but the encumbered win at Richmond International Raceway this spring took the wind from his sails. Even so, he had some sporadic strong runs along the way and kept from dropping too far down the order in terms of his NASCAR Fantasy Live price. Slowly but surely he has fallen to $22.50, which makes him only the 14th-most expensive driver in the game behind rookies Erik Jones ($25.50) and Daniel Suarez ($23). And there is a reason for that: the Young Guns have been outperforming the veteran on a consistent basis.

Kurt Busch also fell 50 cents to $21. Consistency is so important in Fantasy NASCAR. Without it, isolated top-10s are useless unless one is great at guessing. Busch climbed up the value list with three straight top-fives to close out the regular season, but he earned only two more strong runs during the playoffs. One of these was a second at Kansas Speedway, but even that is insufficient to keep him above an average finish of almost 20th in that span of races.

Finally, Danica Patrick dropped 50 cents to $12.50. The Ford 400 will likely be her last NASCAR Cup race as a fulltime competitor. As much as fans of fast femmes would like to see here go out on a high note, a result near 20th is probably all this team is capable of. She will likely qualify in that same general range, so place-differential points will not be a positive factor. 

 

Driver

Diff

 |

This Week’s Caps

Gainers

Kevin Harvick

 $     0.75

 |

 $     28.00

Chase Elliott

 $     0.50

 |

 $     27.25

Brad Keselowski

 $     0.25

 |

 $     26.75

Matt Kenseth

 $     0.25

 |

 $     26.50

Daniel Suarez

 $     0.25

 |

 $     23.00

Austin Dillon

 $     0.25

 |

 $     22.25

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     21.00

Ryan Blaney

 $     0.25

 |

 $     18.25

Paul Menard

 $     0.25

 |

 $     15.25

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

 $     0.25

 |

 $     14.50

Kasey Kahne

 $     0.25

 |

 $     13.50

Aric Almirola

 $     0.25

 |

 $     11.00

David Ragan

 $     0.25

 |

 $       9.50

Landon Cassill

 $     0.25

 |

 $       7.00

Losers

Kyle Busch

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.75

Denny Hamlin

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     27.25

Ryan Newman

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     23.00

Trevor Bayne

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     15.75

Chris Buescher

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $     13.50

Michael McDowell

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       9.00

AJ Allmendinger

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       9.00

Corey Lajoie

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       5.50

Joey Gase

 $    (0.25)

 |

 $       4.75

Joey Logano

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     22.50

Kurt Busch

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     21.00

Danica Patrick

 $    (0.50)

 |

 $     12.50

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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