Dan Beaver

Statistically Speaking

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24. AJ Allmendinger

Wednesday, January 10, 2018


On any given week, fantasy players have to look deep in the roster to find sleepers and dark horses. One would prefer that these drivers were predictably strong, but that is not always possible. AJ Allmendinger walked a tightrope in 2017—occasionally running well, but never able to string two top-15s together in 36 races.

In 2017, JTG-Daugherty Racing expanded to two teams with Chris Buescher in the other ride. That might have been a distraction for the veteran. While the organization as a whole improved. Allmendinger slipped down the rankings and was never a serious challenger for the playoffs.

The closest Allmendinger came to earning back-to-back top-15s came in the early stages of the season when he was 17th at Auto Club Speedway and sixth at Martinsville Speedway. Buried in that statistic was a glimmer of hope for players who paid close attention. Some pundits believe flat tracks and road courses behave the same. Drivers have to back up the entry of the corner in order to accelerate at the apex, and that is what Allmendinger was able to do on the half-mile, Virginia short track.

His sixth in the STP 500 was Allmendinger’s second of five top-10s, but he was unable to duplicate the feat a few weeks later when the series rolled into Richmond International Raceway or in June at Pocono—so players worried about him and were likely tentative in their approach.

Still, Allmendinger was fantasy relevant on a couple of occasions. He finished 10th in one of the biggest races of the season: The Brickyard 400. Two weeks later, he was ninth at Watkins Glen International, but that result was less impactful than it might have been since most fantasy games increase his salary cap for road courses.

Allmendinger also scored a 17th at New Hampshire, and while that was not stellar, it was better than his 2017 average finish of 22.0 by five spots. Look for Dinger to run strong on short, flat tracks and road courses again in 2018, but there is a caveat to that statement. For some reason, Allmendinger has struggled at Sonoma Raceway in recent years. He often qualifies well, but seems to push the envelope too much in race trim and sustains damage. The loss of place-differential points hampers his effectiveness.

Victories: None
2017 Average Finish: 22.0
Top-fives: 1 (.028)
Top-10s: 5 (.139)
Top-15s: 6 (.167)

 

Track

3-Yr
Avg.
Fin

Career
Avg.
Fin

Career
Attempts

Career
Top-5s

Career
Top-10s

Race 1

Race 2

Watkins Glen International

12.33

9.33

9

3

6

9

 

Homestead - Miami Speedway

14.00

20.30

10

1

3

14

 

Daytona International Speedway *

14.33

25.26

20

2

4

3

8

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

14.67

26.40

10

 

1

24

 

Martinsville Speedway

18.67

19.37

19

2

6

6

40

Texas Motor Speedway

18.83

21.89

19

 

2

20

16

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

19.33

23.32

19

 

1

21

17

Auto Club Speedway

19.67

21.21

14

 

2

17

 

Kansas Speedway

19.83

22.29

17

 

4

30

32

Atlanta Motor Speedway

20.00

20.46

13

 

3

26

 

Pocono Raceway

20.00

24.38

21

 

2

22

23

Phoenix International Raceway

20.67

21.05

19

 

2

26

23

Talladega SuperSpeedway

21.67

25.28

18

1

2

31

22

Charlotte Motor Speedway

22.67

22.15

20

1

2

18

20

Bristol Motor Speedway

23.33

24.32

19

 

1

30

22

Dover Downs International

23.50

23.00

20

 

3

18

28

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

23.67

22.40

10

 

2

10

 

Michigan International Speedway

23.67

22.70

20

 

 

18

20

Richmond International Raceway

24.17

21.10

21

 

3

37

26

Chicagoland Speedway

26.33

23.60

10

 

 

26

 

Darlington Raceway

26.67

26.50

10

 

 

34

 

Kentucky Speedway

27.33

23.29

7

 

1

20

 

Sonoma Raceway

28.67

25.10

10

 

2

35

 

 

* Top-10 sweeps

25. Kasey Kahne



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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