Dan Beaver

Statistically Speaking

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22. Ty Dillon

Saturday, January 13, 2018


There is more than one way to be of value to a fantasy team. Ty Dillon did not score a single top-10 during his rookie campaign, but he failed to finish only three times in 36 starts and that insured he would be around at the end to capitalize on late race mistakes by other drivers. In 12 of his starts, he finished 16th or better. Stated another way, Dillon finished between 11th and 16th in one-third of his races; consistency is the lifeblood of handicappers.

Dillon was not only running at the end 33 races, he completed the distance 19 times, which is no small feat for a freshman. Perhaps just as impressively, two of his top-15s came after he sustained crash damage. In fact, the grandson of Richard Childress did a great job of protecting his equipment as he was involved in accidents less than a handful of times. He suffered one other DNF with a broken rear end.

Dillon never anchored a roster in 2018, but the decision to start him was never all that difficult. He finished badly—that is outside of the top 25—only nine times. Fantasy owners knew exactly what to expect from Dillon and he delivered.

He also had a knack for improving in race trim. Many fantasy games offer place-differential points and Dillon was happy to accumulate them. He finished better than he qualified 27 times during the 2018. Two of the races in which he lost positions came to the tune of four positions total, which is as close to breaking even as it comes. In fact, his average place-differential of +5.47 positions per race is the best among the top 25.

Dillon’s fantasy owners have a lot to be grateful for, but they cannot automatically assume that he will run equally well in 2018. The sophomore slump is a real phenomenon that affects most drivers. Occasionally it lasts less than a full season and can be dismissed the same way a loss of momentum is temporary. But with an average finish of 20.72 compared to Erik Jones’s 17.06 or Daniel Suarez’s 16.22, he is the low hanging fruit. Dillon can easily drop further behind his classmates and there is the potential that will start to get into his head.

Dillon continues to drive for a team that is an independent—on paper at least. It appears that RCR gave the Germain Bros. much greater support in 2017 for the full campaign than they ever did to their other partners when a developmental drivers was in the cockpit part time. But with only one season of data, the book is still being written as to how that will play out in the long run.

Victories: None
2017 Average Finish: 20.72
Top-fives: 0 (.000)
Top-10s: 0 (.000)
Top-15s: 8 (.222)

 

Track

3-Yr
Avg.
Fin

Career
Avg.
Fin

Career
Attempts

Career
Top-5s

Career
Top-10s

Race 1

Race 2

Talladega SuperSpeedway

12.00

12.00

3

 

 

13

11

Darlington Raceway

13.00

13.00

1

 

 

13

 

Phoenix International Raceway

14.00

17.25

4

 

 

16

11

Atlanta Motor Speedway

16.00

19.00

3

 

 

15

 

Auto Club Speedway

18.00

18.00

1

 

 

18

 

Pocono Raceway

18.50

18.50

4

 

 

18

17

Kansas Speedway

18.67

18.67

3

 

 

14

16

Indianapolis Motor Speedway

19.00

19.00

1

 

 

19

 

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

19.00

19.00

2

 

 

16

22

Watkins Glen International

19.00

19.00

1

 

 

19

 

Michigan International Speedway

19.75

19.75

4

 

 

20

21

Texas Motor Speedway

20.33

20.33

3

 

 

17

24

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

21.00

21.00

1

 

 

21

 

Dover Downs International

22.67

22.67

3

 

 

14

22

Richmond International Raceway

24.00

24.00

2

 

 

26

22

Daytona International Speedway

24.75

24.75

4

 

 

30

16

Bristol Motor Speedway

25.33

25.33

3

 

 

15

36

Martinsville Speedway

26.00

26.00

2

 

 

22

30

Homestead - Miami Speedway

27.33

27.33

3

 

 

26

 

Chicagoland Speedway

27.50

27.50

2

 

 

28

 

Sonoma Raceway

28.00

28.00

1

 

 

28

 

Charlotte Motor Speedway

28.50

28.50

2

 

 

36

21

Kentucky Speedway

29.00

29.00

2

 

 

33

 

 

23. Buescher, Chris 
24. Allmendinger, AJ 
25. Kahne, Kasey

 



Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 12 years with a little help from his >500,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.
Email :Dan Beaver



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