Phony IavaroniThe Grizzlies are another fantasy headache. Coach Marc Iavaroni continues to shuffle his starting five, occasionally swapping out
Hakim Warrick for
Juan Carlos Navarro. This is the Don Nelson effect gone awry. I realize other coaches employ similar tactics with great success—
Manu Ginobili never seems to be bothered much when he shifts from the bench to the starting five, or vice versa. But these are the Grizzlies, after all. They are in rebuilding mode, and Iavaroni's decisions often seem arbitrary and counterintuitive. Wouldn't his young team be better served by having some stability? Wouldn't Navarro develop his NBA skills more readily by playing one role for longer than a week and half? Isn't Warrick's blossoming post game enough to force Iavaroni to keep him on the court? I mean who else can the Grizzlies throw it to on the block…Darko? Not a chance. I should acknowledge that some of my anger is because Iavaroni has eliminated 92% of
Mike Conley and
Kyle Lowry's potential fantasy value, miring them in an awful time-share that only got worse once
Javaris Crittenton came to town. And then the Grizzlies somehow didn't trade Lowry this season, even though a ton of teams were clamoring for him. What, there was no team willing to part with someone as good as
Kwame Brown?
Warrick has been a solid fantasy contributor, but only while starting. Check out the disparity:
Starting: 16.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks.
Not Starting: 7.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.3 steals and 0.3 blocks.
(The real drop-off isn't quite so steep now, since the majority of his games as a reserve came with
Pau Gasol still in a Grizzlies uniform.) Warrick has played 30+ minutes in four straight games, so keep him active and hope Iavaroni calms down the lineups—just don't be shocked if Hakim throws out another random 22-minute clunker.
Idling on the runwayElton Brand has had some positive vibes lately—he finally participated in a 5-on-5 scrimmage, he says his Achilles is nearly 100% healthy and his coach is seemingly eager to welcome him back onto the court. These are all good things, but owners should count their blessings: just because EB returns for a few games doesn't mean he'll be posting MVP numbers during the week of your fantasy championship. Brand is thawed out—now he has to warm up a little. Expect limited minutes and limited numbers in the half dozen or so games he might appear in—Brand even said he might play in the final eight games of the season, which would mean a return on Wednesday, April 2nd.
I don't own
Gilbert Arenas in any leagues, but if I did I would drop him overnight, in my sleep, in a heartbeat. His latest setback is a dagger for owners whose faith in Agent Zero has kept them afloat for many agonizing months. He could still return, but I can't see him significantly impacting anyone's fantasy fortunes.
Arenas has been out for months and months, and three days ago the team doctor refused to clear him for action. His checkup next week could be just as fruitless, potentially leaving owners precariously little time to unload him before weekly lineups need to be set. Even if he does return, he has already said (once in an interview, once in his blog) that he won't play more than 20 minutes and doesn't want to start. So we're left with a rusty Arenas returning from back-to-back knee surgeries, his game predicated on speed and rhythm jump shooting, his role limited to 18 minutes off the bench…I personally see no reason why he should be owned in any leagues right now. Feel free to email your responses to this (I know it's not easy to accept, if you own him).
Jermaine O'Neal has been practicing for a while now, and Pacers coach Jim O'Brien says his return is solely dependent upon his conditioning. O'Neal said on Tuesday that he expects to be back "soon". The Pacers are scrapping for a possible playoff spot, so he could make a difference down the stretch in fantasy leagues. Unfortunately, I feel the exact same way about O'Neal as I do about Brand—J.O. has missed 31 straight games and is struggling just to get his conditioning back. Forget about 20 & 10 with a handful of blocks—the only 20 & 10 games he'll have this season will be in minutes and points.
We'll end on a downbeat this week, there's nothing wrong with that. I'm just trying to look at the prospects of these guys in a realistic light, and actually hope that I get proven wrong. But months of relative inactivity can't be overcome in the course of two weeks. Well, at least we won't have to wait long to see if any of these guys pan out.
Shawn Marion is the most heated topic right now, and I'm sorry to say that updates are simply hard to come by. He's definitely abusing the privilege of day-to-day, but it sounds like he genuinely wants to return. Hang on to him, then think about dropping him if there's still no positive news out of Miami next weekend. UPDATE: Marion didn't travel with the Heat on their current four-game road trip.
Email away.
RK
The
Gilbert Arenas drama, the looming return of
Elton Brand and Jermaine O'Neal, the interminable guessing game over
Shawn Marion's ongoing back pain,
Chris Kaman's ongoing back pain,
Ben Wallace's ongoing back pain…this list could be ongoing for a while. Unfortunately, I don't have the space to address every injury and happening (subscribe to the Daily Dose if you want to not only be in the loop, but have the loop delivered to your email inbox every morning). Some of the guys I just mentioned appear in this week's NBA Fantasy Trends, but I also make time for Knicks coach/president/innovative popcorn salesman Isiah Thomas…read on to see what the hell I'm talking about.
Trailblazers reach a fork in the…trailBrandon Roy left Tuesday's game with a groin injury. Actually he left the game twice with the same injury, after unsuccessfully trying to return. Roy will be re-evaluated on Wednesday, but as coach
Nate McMillan pointed out, "[Groin injuries] can sit you down for a month."
So far there is no official word that last season's Rookie of the Year will be out for a long time—but if he gets a bleak diagnosis, owners should be ready to pounce on two guys…
Jarrett Jack and
Martell Webster (with
James Jones as a deep-league bonus).
Jarrett Jack is averaging 35 minutes in his 11 starts this season, compared to just 25 minutes in his 61 games as a substitute. As a starter he has averaged 9.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.7 turnovers. He is shooting 42% from the field this season, but balances it out with 87% free throw shooting. If Roy is out for a while, look no further for a mid-level utility guard.
Martell Webster was already starting to heat up and could be a top-notch source of threes and points for as long as Roy is out. Before this week, he hadn't scored 20+ points since January 5th and had done it only four times all season…now suddenly it's happened twice in a row. In the past two games he's averaging 22.5 points on 50% shooting, 4.5 three-pointers, four rebounds and two assists.
Webster almost never steals the ball, he hands out dimes like his first name is Ebenezer and he is averaging just 42% from the field and 73% from the line. Still, when you consider that 48% of his shots are from downtown, it's kind of an inevitable trade-off.
LaMarcus Aldridge (sprained ankle) should return soon, but Webster will still carry more of the offensive burden, which suits his skill-set just fine.
James Jones could be a decent pick-up in deeper leagues, as he's likely to absorb a few more minutes for however long Roy is out. He's a 3-point specialist, but certainly of use to some owners.
Doubting ThomasThe Knicks are torturing the fantasy landscape, offering up insufficient minutes (
David Lee), random DNPs (
Zach Randolph), sketchy injuries (
Nate Robinson), awful "project players" (
Randolph Morris) and other shiftless dreck (
Quentin Richardson,
Fred Jones). It cannot be overstated—this lineup is 100% hand-crafted by Isiah Thomas.
The Knicks official website has a truly hilarious biography about Isiah. There's too much great stuff and I can only scratch the surface, but they speak glowingly about his "singular style" and his "singular philosophy" (you can't deny it, can you?). Upon resuming coaching duties, Isiah was quoted as saying, ""The first thing I'll do is restore the discipline and from that discipline we should be able to regain the trust of our players. And from the discipline and trust, we'll try to restore their confidence and build their confidence back to the level where it should be for a professional athlete." I'm not sure if the discipline/trust speech was before or after the sexual harassment lawsuit. Discipline, trust, and confidence (Marbury refusing to play, Randolph throwing water on a teammate, Curry questioning his role, Q-Rich exploding, etc.) Hmm…I wonder when Isiah is going to get started on that.
Sorry…back to the court. As my colleague Scott Morrow correctly noted,
Mardy Collins had a torrid April last season, averaging 44 minutes, 14.8 points, 0.9 three-pointers, 6.7 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.0 steals in the last nine games of the season.
It wasn't all terrific, as he also shot 39% from the field, 66% from the free throw line and turned the ball over 4.0 times per game. The Knicks season has been over for a long time and we're never quite sure who's in and who's out, or who will end up with consistent minutes going forward. But if last year is any indication, Collins is a prime breakout candidate as we near the season's final stages.
Two facts you definitely did not know about Isiah Thomas:
1) He was named "Father of the Year" in 2004, though the bio failed to specify "best" or "worst".
2) He is a financial partner in an innovative chain of retail popcorn stores. Don't laugh—there's big money in innovative popcorn.
Phony IavaroniThe Grizzlies are another fantasy headache. Coach Marc Iavaroni continues to shuffle his starting five, occasionally swapping out
Hakim Warrick for
Juan Carlos Navarro. This is the Don Nelson effect gone awry. I realize other coaches employ similar tactics with great success—
Manu Ginobili never seems to be bothered much when he shifts from the bench to the starting five, or vice versa. But these are the Grizzlies, after all. They are in rebuilding mode, and Iavaroni's decisions often seem arbitrary and counterintuitive. Wouldn't his young team be better served by having some stability? Wouldn't Navarro develop his NBA skills more readily by playing one role for longer than a week and half? Isn't Warrick's blossoming post game enough to force Iavaroni to keep him on the court? I mean who else can the Grizzlies throw it to on the block…Darko? Not a chance. I should acknowledge that some of my anger is because Iavaroni has eliminated 92% of
Mike Conley and
Kyle Lowry's potential fantasy value, miring them in an awful time-share that only got worse once
Javaris Crittenton came to town. And then the Grizzlies somehow didn't trade Lowry this season, even though a ton of teams were clamoring for him. What, there was no team willing to part with someone as good as
Kwame Brown?
Warrick has been a solid fantasy contributor, but only while starting. Check out the disparity:
Starting: 16.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.5 blocks.
Not Starting: 7.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 0.3 steals and 0.3 blocks.
(The real drop-off isn't quite so steep now, since the majority of his games as a reserve came with
Pau Gasol still in a Grizzlies uniform.) Warrick has played 30+ minutes in four straight games, so keep him active and hope Iavaroni calms down the lineups—just don't be shocked if Hakim throws out another random 22-minute clunker.
Idling on the runwayElton Brand has had some positive vibes lately—he finally participated in a 5-on-5 scrimmage, he says his Achilles is nearly 100% healthy and his coach is seemingly eager to welcome him back onto the court. These are all good things, but owners should count their blessings: just because EB returns for a few games doesn't mean he'll be posting MVP numbers during the week of your fantasy championship. Brand is thawed out—now he has to warm up a little. Expect limited minutes and limited numbers in the half dozen or so games he might appear in—Brand even said he might play in the final eight games of the season, which would mean a return on Wednesday, April 2nd.
I don't own
Gilbert Arenas in any leagues, but if I did I would drop him overnight, in my sleep, in a heartbeat. His latest setback is a dagger for owners whose faith in Agent Zero has kept them afloat for many agonizing months. He could still return, but I can't see him significantly impacting anyone's fantasy fortunes.
Arenas has been out for months and months, and three days ago the team doctor refused to clear him for action. His checkup next week could be just as fruitless, potentially leaving owners precariously little time to unload him before weekly lineups need to be set. Even if he does return, he has already said (once in an interview, once in his blog) that he won't play more than 20 minutes and doesn't want to start. So we're left with a rusty Arenas returning from back-to-back knee surgeries, his game predicated on speed and rhythm jump shooting, his role limited to 18 minutes off the bench…I personally see no reason why he should be owned in any leagues right now. Feel free to email your responses to this (I know it's not easy to accept, if you own him).
Jermaine O'Neal has been practicing for a while now, and Pacers coach Jim O'Brien says his return is solely dependent upon his conditioning. O'Neal said on Tuesday that he expects to be back "soon". The Pacers are scrapping for a possible playoff spot, so he could make a difference down the stretch in fantasy leagues. Unfortunately, I feel the exact same way about O'Neal as I do about Brand—J.O. has missed 31 straight games and is struggling just to get his conditioning back. Forget about 20 & 10 with a handful of blocks—the only 20 & 10 games he'll have this season will be in minutes and points.
We'll end on a downbeat this week, there's nothing wrong with that. I'm just trying to look at the prospects of these guys in a realistic light, and actually hope that I get proven wrong. But months of relative inactivity can't be overcome in the course of two weeks. Well, at least we won't have to wait long to see if any of these guys pan out.
Shawn Marion is the most heated topic right now, and I'm sorry to say that updates are simply hard to come by. He's definitely abusing the privilege of day-to-day, but it sounds like he genuinely wants to return. Hang on to him, then think about dropping him if there's still no positive news out of Miami next weekend. UPDATE: Marion didn't travel with the Heat on their current four-game road trip.
Email away.
RK