Hibbert's Hop

An in-season coaching change can often have dramatic implications on rotations and strategy. We saw it in Charlotte with Paul Silas, who has turned D.J. Augustin into a top-40 fantasy player with a "hands off" style. We are already seeing it in Indiana, where Jim O'Brien's head-scratching decisions and public criticisms of his players got him fired.

NBA coaches are constantly tinkering, toying and yanking around with rotations. The effect this has on minutes played and statistical production is where we come in.

Each week in this space, I'll explore the rotations of half the league's teams while attempting to get inside coaches' heads and rotations. The idea is not to tell you what Kevin Durant and LeBron James are going to do -- it's to decipher how much production we can get out of fringe players. Last week, I hit the West. Let's start this week off with those new-look Pacers.

* Note that lineups listed reflect the starters in the team's previous game. Stats are through Monday's games unless otherwise noted.

INDIANA
PG Darren Collison
SG Mike Dunleavy
SF Danny Granger
PF Josh McRoberts
C Roy Hibbert

Interim coach Frank Vogel had just one practice and one shootaround to make adjustments before Monday night's game against the Raptors. That was more than enough time to make an impact. Vogel chose to start Josh McRoberts at the fluid power forward spot and hinted that he likes Tyler Hansbrough as his low-post scorer off the bench. Hansbrough checked in for McBob with about five minutes left in the first quarter Monday, a rotation that makes sense. When it was said and done, McRoberts played 32 minutes while Hansbrough got just 15. That will be more even on most nights, but since neither have any blocks upside, I'm staying away in standard formats.

The other glaring adjustment was a focus on Roy Hibbert. Instead of receiving the ball at the elbow, the Pacers got the ball to the big man deep on the block. It resulted in 24 points and 11 rebounds in 30 minutes. Note that in Hibbert's previous 12 games, he averaged 8.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. On Monday, he had 24 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks. Yes, most of that came against Andrea Bargnani, who very well may be the worst post defender in the NBA. But it's not a fluke that this breakout happened immediately following O'Brien's dismissal.

It's clear that one of the main reasons Jim O'Brien is gone is because of how he handled Hibbert. Vogel is already committed to relying on Hibbert in a big way. Before Monday, Hibbert had played 30-plus minutes just once in his last 12 games. Fans were chanting "double-double" as the clock wound down and Vogel could be audibly heard encouraging Hibbert even when the big man made mistakes.

As for Danny Granger, there is no real change. O'Brien was already playing Granger almost 37 minutes a night and encouraged his scorer to shoot 3-pointers at will. Vogel will do the same thing. Darren Collison has an up arrow because he won't be looking over his shoulder at O'Brien. The promising young point guard is now locked into a true starter's role and will be able to play more freely.

The Brandon Rush/Paul George/Mike Dunleavy situation is not all that exciting. George can definitely play and will be very good down the line, but he is not good bet to get 30 minutes a night at any point this season. Rush found himself in O'Brien's doghouse but is a better overall player than Dunleavy. Still, Dunleavy is too established to simply be phased out. It's a mess that I'd rather not deal with unless I'm in a deep league.

ATLANTA
PG Mike Bibby
SG Joe Johnson
SF Maurice Evans
PF Josh Smith
C Al Horford

Two weeks ago, I mentioned how Marvin Williams' return combined with a natural regression in shooting percentage is trouble for Jamal Crawford. Over his last eight games, Crawford is averaging just 13.1 points on 35-of-100 (35.0 percent) shooting. He will get hot again, but for now must be considered a mere 3-point specialist.

Before Marvin Williams went Mike Tyson on Shawne Williams, his back looked pretty good -- good enough to start when the Hawks choose to go small. Still, Williams does not get plays run for him and is a poor bet to play more than 27-29 minutes nightly. In 29 starts this season, he has averaged 10.9 points and 4.6 rebounds with no defensive stats. We can do better.

BOSTON
PG Rajon Rondo
SG Ray Allen
SF Paul Pierce
PF Kevin Garnett
C Shaquille O'Neal

Kendrick Perkins' impressive return just seven months removed from an ACL tear throws a wrench into the big man rotation. It allows Shaquille O'Neal to rest on back-to-backs and sit out whenever he feels a nagging injury. It also cramps Glen Davis' minutes.

In the four games that Perkins has played this season, Davis is averaging 22.2 minutes. For the season, he is up at 30 a night. And this comes with Jermaine O'Neal (knee) sidelined. Barring another injury to Kevin Garnett or a setback for Perkins, Davis should only be used in the deepest of formats.

As for Perkins himself, I am not too excited. Last year, Perkins was completely healthy and did not have Shaq or Jermaine to fend off. He started 78 games and still averaged a meager 10.1 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. Perkins minutes are already ramped up around 27 quickly, but he remains a long shot to equal those numbers from last season.

Editor's Note: Draft a hoops team just for tonight and win real cash in SnapDraft!

CHARLOTTE
PG D.J. Augustin
SG Stephen Jackson
SF Gerald Wallace
PF Boris Diaw
C Kwame Brown

This rotation has become as rock solid as it gets under Paul Silas. Since Larry Brown stepped down on Dec. 22, the Bobcats have gone 11-7 (entering Monday) -- and the starting five is clearly locked in for the long haul. With no real questions about roles, note some January numbers in the 15 games entering Monday night:

D.J. Augustin: 17.9 points, 7.3 assists, 1.9 treys, 0.9 steals.
Kwame Brown: 9.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, 0.4 blocks, 56.2 percent from field.

We can confidently say that these numbers will hold over the final two-plus months.

CHICAGO
PG Derrick Rose
SG Keith Bogans
SF Luol Deng
PF Carlos Boozer
C Kurt Thomas

Joakim Noah (hand) will be back sometime around the Feb. 18 All-Star game. Considering the injury was to Noah's hand and not his legs, he should be in fine physical condition -- and ready to play 34-plus minutes right out of the gate. Taj Gibson already is waiver-wire fodder and Kurt Thomas will be joining him very shortly as well.

Once Noah returns, Luol Deng's minutes figure to drop. He won't be needed at power forward anymore and badly needs a break. Deng is currently playing 39.2 minutes a night, trailing only Monta Ellis, Rudy Gay, Kevin Durant and Dorell Wright in that category.

Editor's Note: For weekly projections, daily pickup advice, exclusive columns and much more, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass!

An in-season coaching change can often have dramatic implications on rotations and strategy. We saw it in Charlotte with Paul Silas, who has turned D.J. Augustin into a top-40 fantasy player with a "hands off" style. We are already seeing it in Indiana, where Jim O'Brien's head-scratching decisions and public criticisms of his players got him fired.

NBA coaches are constantly tinkering, toying and yanking around with rotations. The effect this has on minutes played and statistical production is where we come in.

Each week in this space, I'll explore the rotations of half the league's teams while attempting to get inside coaches' heads and rotations. The idea is not to tell you what Kevin Durant and LeBron James are going to do -- it's to decipher how much production we can get out of fringe players. Last week, I hit the West. Let's start this week off with those new-look Pacers.

* Note that lineups listed reflect the starters in the team's previous game. Stats are through Monday's games unless otherwise noted.

INDIANA
PG Darren Collison
SG Mike Dunleavy
SF Danny Granger
PF Josh McRoberts
C Roy Hibbert

Interim coach Frank Vogel had just one practice and one shootaround to make adjustments before Monday night's game against the Raptors. That was more than enough time to make an impact. Vogel chose to start Josh McRoberts at the fluid power forward spot and hinted that he likes Tyler Hansbrough as his low-post scorer off the bench. Hansbrough checked in for McBob with about five minutes left in the first quarter Monday, a rotation that makes sense. When it was said and done, McRoberts played 32 minutes while Hansbrough got just 15. That will be more even on most nights, but since neither have any blocks upside, I'm staying away in standard formats.

The other glaring adjustment was a focus on Roy Hibbert. Instead of receiving the ball at the elbow, the Pacers got the ball to the big man deep on the block. It resulted in 24 points and 11 rebounds in 30 minutes. Note that in Hibbert's previous 12 games, he averaged 8.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.5 blocks. On Monday, he had 24 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks. Yes, most of that came against Andrea Bargnani, who very well may be the worst post defender in the NBA. But it's not a fluke that this breakout happened immediately following O'Brien's dismissal.

It's clear that one of the main reasons Jim O'Brien is gone is because of how he handled Hibbert. Vogel is already committed to relying on Hibbert in a big way. Before Monday, Hibbert had played 30-plus minutes just once in his last 12 games. Fans were chanting "double-double" as the clock wound down and Vogel could be audibly heard encouraging Hibbert even when the big man made mistakes.

As for Danny Granger, there is no real change. O'Brien was already playing Granger almost 37 minutes a night and encouraged his scorer to shoot 3-pointers at will. Vogel will do the same thing. Darren Collison has an up arrow because he won't be looking over his shoulder at O'Brien. The promising young point guard is now locked into a true starter's role and will be able to play more freely.

The Brandon Rush/Paul George/Mike Dunleavy situation is not all that exciting. George can definitely play and will be very good down the line, but he is not good bet to get 30 minutes a night at any point this season. Rush found himself in O'Brien's doghouse but is a better overall player than Dunleavy. Still, Dunleavy is too established to simply be phased out. It's a mess that I'd rather not deal with unless I'm in a deep league.

ATLANTA
PG Mike Bibby
SG Joe Johnson
SF Maurice Evans
PF Josh Smith
C Al Horford

Two weeks ago, I mentioned how Marvin Williams' return combined with a natural regression in shooting percentage is trouble for Jamal Crawford. Over his last eight games, Crawford is averaging just 13.1 points on 35-of-100 (35.0 percent) shooting. He will get hot again, but for now must be considered a mere 3-point specialist.

Before Marvin Williams went Mike Tyson on Shawne Williams, his back looked pretty good -- good enough to start when the Hawks choose to go small. Still, Williams does not get plays run for him and is a poor bet to play more than 27-29 minutes nightly. In 29 starts this season, he has averaged 10.9 points and 4.6 rebounds with no defensive stats. We can do better.

BOSTON
PG Rajon Rondo
SG Ray Allen
SF Paul Pierce
PF Kevin Garnett
C Shaquille O'Neal

Kendrick Perkins' impressive return just seven months removed from an ACL tear throws a wrench into the big man rotation. It allows Shaquille O'Neal to rest on back-to-backs and sit out whenever he feels a nagging injury. It also cramps Glen Davis' minutes.

In the four games that Perkins has played this season, Davis is averaging 22.2 minutes. For the season, he is up at 30 a night. And this comes with Jermaine O'Neal (knee) sidelined. Barring another injury to Kevin Garnett or a setback for Perkins, Davis should only be used in the deepest of formats.

As for Perkins himself, I am not too excited. Last year, Perkins was completely healthy and did not have Shaq or Jermaine to fend off. He started 78 games and still averaged a meager 10.1 points, 7.6 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. Perkins minutes are already ramped up around 27 quickly, but he remains a long shot to equal those numbers from last season.

Editor's Note: Draft a hoops team just for tonight and win real cash in SnapDraft!

CHARLOTTE
PG D.J. Augustin
SG Stephen Jackson
SF Gerald Wallace
PF Boris Diaw
C Kwame Brown

This rotation has become as rock solid as it gets under Paul Silas. Since Larry Brown stepped down on Dec. 22, the Bobcats have gone 11-7 (entering Monday) -- and the starting five is clearly locked in for the long haul. With no real questions about roles, note some January numbers in the 15 games entering Monday night:

D.J. Augustin: 17.9 points, 7.3 assists, 1.9 treys, 0.9 steals.
Kwame Brown: 9.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, 0.4 blocks, 56.2 percent from field.

We can confidently say that these numbers will hold over the final two-plus months.

CHICAGO
PG Derrick Rose
SG Keith Bogans
SF Luol Deng
PF Carlos Boozer
C Kurt Thomas

Joakim Noah (hand) will be back sometime around the Feb. 18 All-Star game. Considering the injury was to Noah's hand and not his legs, he should be in fine physical condition -- and ready to play 34-plus minutes right out of the gate. Taj Gibson already is waiver-wire fodder and Kurt Thomas will be joining him very shortly as well.

Once Noah returns, Luol Deng's minutes figure to drop. He won't be needed at power forward anymore and badly needs a break. Deng is currently playing 39.2 minutes a night, trailing only Monta Ellis, Rudy Gay, Kevin Durant and Dorell Wright in that category.

Editor's Note: For weekly projections, daily pickup advice, exclusive columns and much more, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass!



CLEVELAND
PG Ramon Sessions
SG Manny Harris
SF Christian Eyenga
PF Antawn Jamison
C J.J. Hickson

Mo Williams' hip injury may very well be serious, but I can guarantee you he isn't rushing back. The Cavs have lost a jaw-dropping 21 straight games and Williams wants no part of this team. He will be a prime candidate to get traded, the question is simply if anyone wants his bloated contract. Consider Williams a hold through the Feb. 24 trading deadline.

The debate between Daniel Gibson and Manny Harris really should not be a debate at all. But without Williams, the Cavs have no backup point guard. Additionally, Gibson's string of nagging injuries has marred any momentum he had gained. Gibson will still play 28-30 minutes nightly off the bench and bang a ton of treys, but his upside is now capped by Harris. The arrow is down here outside of a 3-point specialist.

DETROIT
PG Tracy McGrady
SG Ben Gordon
SF Tayshaun Prince
PF Chris Wilcox
C Greg Monroe

Ben Gordon's situation is difficult to decipher, mostly because it all revolves around him making shots. When Richard Hamilton was first benched back on Dec. 19, Gordon was presented with a starting opportunity for 10 straight games. But he went cold, averaging just 11.5 points on 43-of-112 (38.3 percent) shooting. That resulted in a trip back to the pine as coach John Kuester went to a backcourt of Tracy McGrady and Rodney Stuckey.

Gordon's back-to-back big games have come with Stuckey (shoulder) out. It's also worth noting that the Pistons have lost both those games -- Gordon scored 35 points against the Knicks Sunday but Detroit lost by 18 points. Look for Stuckey to regain the starting job once healthy, leaving Gordon in a sixth man role again. He is worth a stash while we wait for an inevitable Tracy McGrady injury, but today is a good sell-high point on Gordon.

Kuester's handling of Austin Daye is maddening. Every time the youngster gets real minutes, he produces big shots. And with the Pistons at 17-31, Kuester should be playing all his young players through their inevitable mistakes. It's clear Kuester fears for his job -- and rightfully so. It appears only a coaching change will give Daye reliable minutes.

Quick note on Greg Monroe: He is locked in as the starter ahead of Ben Wallace, but that does not mean he is not affected by Wallace's presence. In the last three games that Wallace has played, Monroe has averaged 27.3 minutes. In the last eight games Wallace has not played, Monroe has averaged 34.8 minutes.

MIAMI
PG Mario Chalmers
SG Dwyane Wade
SF LeBron James
PF Chris Bosh
C Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Finally back at full strength, the Big Three is ready to sap the fantasy life out of all their teammates. If Mike Miller were on the Warriors, he would be a top-30 fantasy player. On the Heat, he is a weak play. Coming into Monday, LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade combined to take 50.8 shots per game. The Heat take just 77.1 shots per game as a team. Don't get tempted by random big games from Miller, James Jones, Eddie House, Zydrunas Ilgauskus or Joel Anthony.

Mario Chalmers promotion into the permanent starter's role is interesting, but all his value is tied up in 3-point shots. On the Heat, he does not get enough of those looks to be a factor. Like the previously mentioned players, he'll have a big night here or there but is not worth chasing those stats.

MILWAUKEE
PG Keyon Dooling
SG Carlos Delfino
SF Corey Maggette
PF Ersan Ilyasova
C Andrew Bogut

Brandon Jennings (foot) is looking really healthy and will resume starting shortly -- probably as soon as Wednesday against the Suns. He's a lock for 36-plus minutes every night, making Keyon Dooling a safe drop.

The constant injuries to the Bucks swingmen make this rotation unsettled. It's clear that John Salmons will start when healthy, but no one knows exactly when that will be. Meanwhile, Carlos Delfino is finally back and playing big minutes. It will be a battle between him and Corey Maggette for burn, with Maggette likely owning the early edge. Take a "wait and see" approach with both while keeping in mind that Delfino's has a very fantasy-friendly game.

Even if Drew Gooden can ever get his foot right, it's obvious that Ersan Ilyasova is the man for the power forward spot. He started all 16 games in January and came into Monday night averaging 11.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals. There is much more upside than that for the glue guy thanks to his 3-point range.

NEW JERSEY
PG Devin Harris
SG Stephen Graham
SF Travis Outlaw
PF Derrick Favors
C Brook Lopez

Although Anthony Morrow is clearly one of the Nets' best five players, he is still coming off the bench. Coach Avery Johnson is hinting that could role stick as he needs Morrow's shooting with the second unit. Already a fringe player when playing starter's minutes, Morrow is now really borderline. Even when he was playing 35 minutes a night earlier this season, the sharpshooter was averaging 1.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 0.3 steals and 0.2 blocks. He is a simple 3-point specialist.

The Derrick Favors vs. Kris Humphries situation is not going to change. The Nets are committed to developing Favors and will continue to start him. Just note that entering Monday, Favors was playing 20.8 minutes since his promotion 14 games ago. Over that same span, Hunphries was playing 26.5 minutes. I would certainly rather own Humphries, but neither is very appetizing.

No, I am not buying Travis Outlaw's monster game Monday night. In his previous 15 games, he averaged 7.8 points and 5.1 rebounds on 37.9 percent shooting. That's the real Travis Outlaw.



NEW YORK
PG Raymond Felton
SG Landry Fields
SF Danilo Gallinari
PF Amare Stoudemire
C Ronny Turiaf

Timofey Mozgov's breakout game Sunday (23 points, 14 rebounds, 39.8 minutes) has the fantasy world buzzing. Consider me a non-believer. First of all, the Knicks played that game without Wilson Chandler (calf) and Shawne Williams (suspension). Prior to Sunday, Mozgov had recorded a DNP-CD in 15 of his last 17 games, with his two appearances coming in absolute garbage time. And perhaps most importantly, Mozgov was up against the Pistons without top post defender and rebounder Ben Wallace.

Yes, the Knicks are desperate for a true center to take some wear and tear off Amare Stoudemire. But they were just as desperate when the season started, and that is why Mozgov started nine of the first 11 games. In those nine games, however, Mozgov faceplanted: 3.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 14.5 minutes. The DNP-CDs quickly ensued. I'd expect a similar series of events this time around -- Mike D'Antoni gives Mozgov chance, Mozgov struggles, Mozgov falls back out of rotation.

Wilson Chandler's recent struggles can be attributed to nagging injuries (calf, wrist) and incessant trade rumors that he admits bother him. It could end up costing Chandler his starting job, but I think the breakout swingman will eventually get back on track. He fits the system too well and is too talented not to get 30 minutes nightly. Do not sell low.

ORLANDO
PG Jameer Nelson
SG Jason Richardson
SF Hedo Turkoglu
PF Brandon Bass
C Dwight Howard

At this point, we can no longer say that Ryan Anderson is just hot. We can say that he is a legit player despite Monday's clunker. Being used in the old Rashard Lewis role as a stretch four, Anderson came into Monday averaging 15.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 3-pointers and 1.0 blocks per night in 15 January games. The most interesting part is that Anderson has done it all as a reserve, playing a meager 24.9 minutes a game.

Will Anderson start at power forward over Brandon Bass at some point? It's possible. Coach Stan Van Gundy is not shy about making changes to his lineups and loves to play "four around one" with Dwight Howard. But we can't ignore the fact that Anderson has topped 30 minutes just once in his last 20 games. Van Gundy needs Bass' defensive presence out there often.

So we're left with 24-29 minutes nightly for Anderson, whether he is starting or not. It's not ideal, but his unique skill set combining blocks, boards and treys means we are not selling high. And if something were to happen to Bass, the sky is the limit. UPDATE: In Monday's game, Brandon Bass went down with an ankle sprain. He is day-to-day, but it looked pretty bad. Anderson will be looking at 30-35 minutes as long as Bass is out.

The Magic may be regretting their acquisition of Gilbert Arenas. He is not coming close to threatening Jameer Nelson and performed poorly on Friday when needed for extended duty. With just 21.8 minutes per game since the trade, Arenas can be dropped.

PHILADELPHIA
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Jodie Meeks
SF Andre Iguodala
PF Elton Brand
C Spencer Hawes

Coach Doug Collins loves to talk about how his best five players do not start for him. It has been a glaring fact of late. Over the last 14 games, Jodie Meeks has averaged 23.1 minutes a night while Lou Williams has been up at 26.3. Similarly, Spencer Hawes Is playing just 17.4 minutes versus 28.1 for Thaddeus Young. This is one of the few bench situations in the league where we can count on reliable production from two players.

Rookie Evan Turner's improvement has been noticeable to the naked eye. Then again, when you start at zero it’s easy to improve. After playing just 19.8 minutes a night in December -- and picking up two DNP-CDs along the way -- he earned 25.4 minutes in January. The problem is that Turner averaged just 8.4 points,4.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists in the month. His versatility will lead to some random nice lines, but his offensive game is still far too raw to even be average at the NBA level. Leave the No. 2 overall pick on waivers.

There will be plenty of talk about Andre Iguodala getting traded as the deadline approaches, but I don't see it happening now. The Sixers finally have some buzz and badly want to make the playoffs. No matter what the fans think, selling Iguodala for expiring contracts will not help and other teams will not offer real talent for Iguodala at his current salary. He is a good bet for 35-37 minutes nightly as a Sixer for the rest of the season.

TORONTO
PG Jose Calderon
SG DeMar DeRozan
SF Sonny Weems
PF Amir Johnson
C Andrea Bargnani

The laundry list of injuries to the Raptors has turned this rotation into a mess. Sonny Weems has a chance to lock down the starting small forward job with Linas Kleiza (knee) out, but Weems still appears bothered by that back ailment. Without much 3-point upside, Weems is not worth tracking.

It's very obvious that Jerryd Bayless is not a threat to Jose Calderon. Coach Jay Triano raves about Calderon, and with good reason. In 28 starts entering Monday, Calderon is averaging 11.5 points, 10.0 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 3-pointers on 49.1 percent shooting. Those are top-40 fantasy numbers easily.

Reggie Evans (foot) is targeting Feb. 17 for his return, meaning the end of whatever value Amir Johnson and Ed Davis had. Look for Evans to eventually get his starting job back, likely leaving Johnson as the odd man out. Davis needs to get minutes as a big part of the Raptors' future. The bottom line is that all three of these guys will cancel each other out.

WASHINGTON
PG John Wall
SG Nick Young
SF Rashard Lewis
PF Trevor Booker
C Andray Blatche

The only reason JaVale McGee didn't start on Monday night was because he missed five days of work due to the flu. Look for him to start on Tuesday, send Trevor Booker back to the bench and play his usual 27-30 minutes a night.

Without an injury to John Wall or Nick Young, we can no longer rely on Kirk Hinrich. When coming off the bench this season, he is playing just 23.3 minutes per game. It's just not enough, even for a player with an extremely fantasy-friendly game like Hinrich.

Rashard Lewis is still declining badly, but extended minutes in Washington have revived his fantasy value -- he’s playing 36.5 minutes a night as a Wizard despite soreness in his knees. Owners should be praying that he doesn't get moved again at the trading deadline as Lewis will provide mid-range value the rest of the way for the dreadful Wizards. Hold him.

Follow Adam Levitan on Twitter for instant news and reaction to changes in NBA depth charts throughout the week.