Timmy in Trouble

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
PG Baron Davis
SG Randy Foye
SF Ryan Gomes
PF Blake Griffin
C DeAndre Jordan

Randy Foye has performed much better as a starter than I thought he would. After failed stints while starting in both Minnesota and Washington, he is showing an improved 3-point stroke since Eric Gordon (wrist) went down. In seven starts, Foye is playing 35.6 minutes per game while averaging 16.1 points on 35.9 percent 3-point shooting. Note, however, that the Clippers are 2-5 with Foye starting. In the 17 games before that, the Clips were 12-5. It’s not a coincidence. Foye will be droppable once Gordon returns -- likely right after the All-Star break.

DeAndre Jordan is dealing with a touch of the flu, which may partially explain his limited minutes of late. His job still should be safe with Chris Kaman (ankle) still lacking a timetable for his return. Note that Jordan is blocking 2.5 shots per 36 minutes. He's impossible to sit.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
PG Derek Fisher
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Ron Artest
PF Pau Gasol
C Andrew Bynum

Ron Artest's trade request is laughable. He, of course, thinks he should have a bigger role. The truth is that his current 28.2 minutes are too many. Artest is incapable of getting his own shot off and is a mediocre 3-point shooter at best. The Lakers figure to marginalize his role even more once Matt Barnes gets healthy.

Meanwhile, Andrew Bynum's latest knee issue proved to be a mere scare. But we saw how much his presence affects Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. In the one game Bynum missed, Odom had 20/20/4 and Gasol had 26/16/0. For the third straight edition of this column, I am recommending a sell on Odom.

Kobe Bryant is playing just 33.8 minutes this year after playing 38.8 a year ago. He should be much fresher for the stretch run this time around.

MEMPHIS
PG Mike Conley
SG Sam Young
SF Rudy Gay
PF Zach Randolph
C Marc Gasol

The most interesting part of the O.J. Mayo is suspension is that Sam Young has solidified the starting SG job over Tony Allen. Always a solid glue guy, defender and leader, Young is showing significant offensive skills. Over his last seven games, Young is averaging 14.0 points. The lack of treys (.04) and rebounds (2.0) over that span makes him extremely low-end, but deep leaguers could do worse. Young projects to keep the job for the rest of the season.

MINNESOTA
PG Jonny Flynn
SG Corey Brewer
SF Michael Beasley
PF Kevin Love
C Darko Milicic

Luke Ridnour's wife delivered twins and one has had some complications. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of life, but Jonny Flynn has not played well enough to steal Ridnour’s job during the starter's four-game absence. Heading into Monday, Flynn was averaging 10.0 points, 5.3 assists and 2.0 rebounds in his three starts. Hip injury aside, the Wolves should be concerned that Ridnour is simply the better player. Look for Ridnour to regain his starting gig and play around 30 minutes once he is ready. Flynn is only deserving of 18-20 per night.

The Wes Johnson/Corey Brewer split has the look of a dreaded even timeshare. Whoever gets hot with their shot is going to play more and each has the chance to throw up a clunker nightly. The only hope here is that Brewer ends up traded away at the deadline, paving the way for Johnson to log big minutes. Deep leaguers can stash Johnson and wait. UPDATE: Michael Beasley went down with another ankle injury Monday night. Look for Johnson and Brewer to now start together, making both decent spot-stars. Beasley was attempting 17.3 shots per night that will now be spread around.

Darko Milicic is so soft it's embarrassing. On Monday night, he got nicked on the hand and grimaced for a few minutes. He got a shot in the face and looked like a little boy that got his lunch money stolen. In between there, he played defense with his hands, picked up two fouls as he usually does and went to the bench. Then the Wolves announced that he was done for the night with a hip injury. It's just a familiar, frustrating script for Darko. Still, the Wolves are committed to him financially and will give him a chance to play 30 minutes nightly. Owners should be willing to deal with the headaches thanks to the blocks.

NEW ORLEANS
PG Chris Paul
SG Marco Belinelli
SF Quincy Pondexter
PF David West
C Aaron Gray

It's rare that significant injuries to two starters yield no fantasy excitement. Somehow, Trevor Ariza (ankle) and Emeka Okafor (oblique) fall into that rare instance. Marcus Thornton barely got off the bench when Marco Belinelli got hurt a couple weeks back and is not seeing a bump in minutes with Ariza out. The duo of Aaron Gray and Jason Smith simply is not good enough for either one to play starter's minutes or put up usable numbers.

OKLAHOMA CITY
PG Russell Westbrook
SG Thabo Sefolosha
SF Kevin Durant
PF Jeff Green
C Nenad Krstic

Coach Scott Brooks was once again pressed this weekend about possibly inserting Serge Ibaka into his starting five over Nenad Krstic. His answer was simply that it is not happening. He's a huge believer in roles and the Thunder are 33-17 with everyone knowing exactly what the rotation will look like. So Krstic will stay a starter and play his 20 minutes, while Ibaka will come off the bench for his 26.

Furthermore, owners should not be alarmed at some strangely low minute totals for Ibaka over the last couple weeks. Some of that had to do with matchups, and other times it had to do with Ibaka showing a lack of energy. He has gotten the message and is back to his usual role.

Here are James Harden's numbers from his three starts last week: 6.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg. I'm still not sold on him as an average NBA starter and he is no threat to Thabo Sefolosha. Even deep league owners can do better.

NBA teams don't care about stats or minutes played. The good ones -- and good players -- simply care about winning. So take a look at this statline and guess who the player is: 13.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.9 blocks in 29.1 minutes per night. If you guessed "beefed up Kris Humphries," you are wrong. If you guessed Tim Duncan, you are well aware of the future Hall of Famer's reduced role. And the bad news for owners is that it's only going to get worse.

Coaches are constantly tinkering, toying and yanking around with rotations. Sometimes it has to do with injuries. In other instances, it's a result of ineffective play from a certain player or team goals. The effect this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.

Each week in this space, I'll explore the rotations of half the league's teams while attempting to get inside coaches' heads. The idea is not to tell you what Kevin Durant and LeBron James are going to do -- it's to decipher how much production we can get out of fringe players. Last week, I hit the East. Let's start this week off with the Spurs, where Gregg Popovich will soon be looking toward the playoffs.

* Note that lineups listed reflect the starters in the team's last game. Stats are through Monday's games unless otherwise noted.

SAN ANTONIO
PG Tony Parker
SG Manu Ginobili
SF Richard Jefferson
PF Tim Duncan
C DeJuan Blair

Tim Duncan played just under 13 minutes on Friday due to simple rest. With the Spurs seven games clear of the Mavs for the top seed in the West and just 32 games to play, look for much more rest down the stretch. Owners should be trying to sell high on name value at all costs, especially if you are in a head-to-head playoff league. Duncan is a threat to sit out the final week of the season and play sparingly on back-to-backs. Already playing just 29.1 minutes nightly, any more time off will be devastating.

The biggest benefactor of Duncan resting is DeJuan Blair. Blair has played 30 or more minutes six times this season. In those games, he is averaging 14.1 points, 12.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks.

Don't chase Tiago Splitter's stats from Friday. Matt Bonner (knee) is nearing a return and Splitter has played five minutes or less in 10 of the last 16 games. That offensive outburst was a fluke. … Richard Jefferson is out of his slump and back up around 32-34 minutes nightly. Owners could do worse for a 3-point specialist, but his 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 1.4 assists make me stay away.

DALLAS
PG Jason Kidd
SG DeShawn Stevenson
SF Peja Stojakovic
PF Dirk Nowitzki
C Tyson Chandler

As expected, Peja Stojakovic's debut came in a starting role. He'll stay there, as coach Rick Carlisle is adamant about bringing both Jason Terry and Shawn Marion off the bench. Heck, he even started Brian "The Janitor" Cardinal at small forward last week before Peja was ready.

However, Stojakovic will be nothing more than a 3-point specialist. Even once 100 percent, the starting small forward in this scheme will not come close to 30 minutes. And as a shell of himself, Peja's numbers are capped. Even when Stojakovic started 55 games and played 32 minutes a night a year ago for the Hornets, he averaged just 13.1 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists.

Considering Rodrigue Beabois has not played since October, he sure is garnering a lot of hype. I am not buying it. Players coming off layoffs as long as this often need weeks to get up to speed and it's not like Roddy B was an established star anyway. He certainly has a ton of talent, but I do not think he will start over DeShawn Stevenson at any point this season. I would much rather be stashing Chris Kaman, Mo Williams, Ty Lawson etc.

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DENVER
PG Chauncey Billups
SG Arron Afflalo
SF Carmelo Anthony
PF Kenyon Martin
C Al Harrington

Now just over two weeks away from the deadline, Carmelo Anthony remains a good bet to be traded. The Nuggets have seen what has happened to the Cavs and Raptors when they lost their superstars and can not afford to get nothing in return. Chauncey Billups may very go along with him, so Ty Lawson remains a must-stash to me. The upside with Lawson starting (17.0 points, 6.0 assists, 1.6 treys, 1.0 steals in five starts this year) is too high to give up on. UPDATE: Billups left Monday night's game with a knee strain and did not return. You should not need any more reasons to add Lawson.

Meanwhile, Kenyon Martin (knee) has finally been cleared to play in back-to-back games. It makes him worth owning in very deep formats, but realize that there is no upside here. Martin no longer has any explosion and is averaging just 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes. He will play more like 24 most nights and gets no plays run for him on offense.

GOLDEN STATE
PG Stephen Curry
SG Monta Ellis
SF Dorell Wright
PF David Lee
C Andris Biedrins

The Warriors have tightened their rotation of late, giving Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and Dorell Wright around 40 minutes nightly. All three are young, fresh and can handle the workload. There is no real reason to think any will wear down.

Andris Biedrins was put on notice by coach Keith Smart a couple weeks ago: Either play better, or Ekpe Udoh is going to get the nod at center. Biedrins promptly responded with three straight double-figure rebounding games and his first double-double in two months.

Biedrins is safe for 27-29 minutes right now and considering his meager value on the fantasy trade market, you might as well ride this out. The odds of Biedrins regressing are strong, but not strong enough to warrant getting pennies on the dollar. Ideally, the Warriors want to bring the raw Udoh along as slow as possible.

HOUSTON
PG Kyle Lowry
SG Kevin Martin
SF Shane Battier
PF Luis Scola
C Chuck Hayes

It's hard to blame Aaron Brooks for being disgruntled. He is in the final year of his contract and lost his starting job due to injury. Yes, Brooks is playing bad -- but if he had his usual minutes and was playing with the first unit, he would likely be playing at last year's level.

So Brooks is angry that he is playing 21.8 minutes a night over the last six weeks and the situation reached a head Saturday night. The 3-point bomber was removed from the game late and simply walked off the court, resulting in a one-game suspension from the team.

Yes, the way Brooks is being treated is costing him millions. But by acting unprofessionally, he is now an extremely poor bet to ever get his starting job back. Coach Rick Adelman said Monday night that he doesn't know if Brooks will even get back in the rotation. Perhaps the Rockets have no plans to re-sign Brooks and therefore are giving Lowry much-needed experience. If so, a trade of Brooks could very well be in the works. Try to hold Brooks through the deadline -- if nothing happens then, he is safe to drop.

Brad Miller's return will not really affect Chuck Hayes' minutes. Hayes is simply playing at a high level. Entering Monday, he had earned 40-plus minutes in three straight games with hard work on the glass and on defense. Start 'em and expect contributions in blocks, steals and rebounds.

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LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
PG Baron Davis
SG Randy Foye
SF Ryan Gomes
PF Blake Griffin
C DeAndre Jordan

Randy Foye has performed much better as a starter than I thought he would. After failed stints while starting in both Minnesota and Washington, he is showing an improved 3-point stroke since Eric Gordon (wrist) went down. In seven starts, Foye is playing 35.6 minutes per game while averaging 16.1 points on 35.9 percent 3-point shooting. Note, however, that the Clippers are 2-5 with Foye starting. In the 17 games before that, the Clips were 12-5. It’s not a coincidence. Foye will be droppable once Gordon returns -- likely right after the All-Star break.

DeAndre Jordan is dealing with a touch of the flu, which may partially explain his limited minutes of late. His job still should be safe with Chris Kaman (ankle) still lacking a timetable for his return. Note that Jordan is blocking 2.5 shots per 36 minutes. He's impossible to sit.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS
PG Derek Fisher
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Ron Artest
PF Pau Gasol
C Andrew Bynum

Ron Artest's trade request is laughable. He, of course, thinks he should have a bigger role. The truth is that his current 28.2 minutes are too many. Artest is incapable of getting his own shot off and is a mediocre 3-point shooter at best. The Lakers figure to marginalize his role even more once Matt Barnes gets healthy.

Meanwhile, Andrew Bynum's latest knee issue proved to be a mere scare. But we saw how much his presence affects Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol. In the one game Bynum missed, Odom had 20/20/4 and Gasol had 26/16/0. For the third straight edition of this column, I am recommending a sell on Odom.

Kobe Bryant is playing just 33.8 minutes this year after playing 38.8 a year ago. He should be much fresher for the stretch run this time around.

MEMPHIS
PG Mike Conley
SG Sam Young
SF Rudy Gay
PF Zach Randolph
C Marc Gasol

The most interesting part of the O.J. Mayo is suspension is that Sam Young has solidified the starting SG job over Tony Allen. Always a solid glue guy, defender and leader, Young is showing significant offensive skills. Over his last seven games, Young is averaging 14.0 points. The lack of treys (.04) and rebounds (2.0) over that span makes him extremely low-end, but deep leaguers could do worse. Young projects to keep the job for the rest of the season.

MINNESOTA
PG Jonny Flynn
SG Corey Brewer
SF Michael Beasley
PF Kevin Love
C Darko Milicic

Luke Ridnour's wife delivered twins and one has had some complications. Not that it matters in the grand scheme of life, but Jonny Flynn has not played well enough to steal Ridnour’s job during the starter's four-game absence. Heading into Monday, Flynn was averaging 10.0 points, 5.3 assists and 2.0 rebounds in his three starts. Hip injury aside, the Wolves should be concerned that Ridnour is simply the better player. Look for Ridnour to regain his starting gig and play around 30 minutes once he is ready. Flynn is only deserving of 18-20 per night.

The Wes Johnson/Corey Brewer split has the look of a dreaded even timeshare. Whoever gets hot with their shot is going to play more and each has the chance to throw up a clunker nightly. The only hope here is that Brewer ends up traded away at the deadline, paving the way for Johnson to log big minutes. Deep leaguers can stash Johnson and wait. UPDATE: Michael Beasley went down with another ankle injury Monday night. Look for Johnson and Brewer to now start together, making both decent spot-stars. Beasley was attempting 17.3 shots per night that will now be spread around.

Darko Milicic is so soft it's embarrassing. On Monday night, he got nicked on the hand and grimaced for a few minutes. He got a shot in the face and looked like a little boy that got his lunch money stolen. In between there, he played defense with his hands, picked up two fouls as he usually does and went to the bench. Then the Wolves announced that he was done for the night with a hip injury. It's just a familiar, frustrating script for Darko. Still, the Wolves are committed to him financially and will give him a chance to play 30 minutes nightly. Owners should be willing to deal with the headaches thanks to the blocks.

NEW ORLEANS
PG Chris Paul
SG Marco Belinelli
SF Quincy Pondexter
PF David West
C Aaron Gray

It's rare that significant injuries to two starters yield no fantasy excitement. Somehow, Trevor Ariza (ankle) and Emeka Okafor (oblique) fall into that rare instance. Marcus Thornton barely got off the bench when Marco Belinelli got hurt a couple weeks back and is not seeing a bump in minutes with Ariza out. The duo of Aaron Gray and Jason Smith simply is not good enough for either one to play starter's minutes or put up usable numbers.

OKLAHOMA CITY
PG Russell Westbrook
SG Thabo Sefolosha
SF Kevin Durant
PF Jeff Green
C Nenad Krstic

Coach Scott Brooks was once again pressed this weekend about possibly inserting Serge Ibaka into his starting five over Nenad Krstic. His answer was simply that it is not happening. He's a huge believer in roles and the Thunder are 33-17 with everyone knowing exactly what the rotation will look like. So Krstic will stay a starter and play his 20 minutes, while Ibaka will come off the bench for his 26.

Furthermore, owners should not be alarmed at some strangely low minute totals for Ibaka over the last couple weeks. Some of that had to do with matchups, and other times it had to do with Ibaka showing a lack of energy. He has gotten the message and is back to his usual role.

Here are James Harden's numbers from his three starts last week: 6.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg. I'm still not sold on him as an average NBA starter and he is no threat to Thabo Sefolosha. Even deep league owners can do better.



PHOENIX
PG Steve Nash
SG Vince Carter
SF Grant Hill
PF Channing Frye
C Robin Lopez

Coach Alvin Gentry has been as steady as they come with his rotation. This starting lineup has been the same (outside of injury) for 15 straight games, producing a 9-5 record heading into Monday night. The roles are set: Channing Frye is going to play an absurd 36-38 minutes nightly and be a fantasy monster. Steve Nash, Vince Carter and Grant Hill will all play 30-plus minutes.

The only question is the Robin Lopez vs. Marcin Gortat split. Note that in the 10 games prior to Monday, Lopez was averaging 15.0 minutes a game while Gortat was up at 26.4. During that span, Gortat is averaging 13.7 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. Ignore the fact that Gortat is coming off the bench and be comfortable starting him.

PORTLAND
PG Andre Miller
SG Wesley Matthews
SF Nicolas Batum
PF LaMarcus Aldridge
C Joel Przybilla

The news that Brandon Roy plans on returning to action this week is monstrous. The dual knee scopes were not long-term fixes for Roy, but should provide real temporary relief. Think of it as a cleanout procedure for your car's engine -- it will run better for a little bit. Look for Roy to come off the bench for a week or two before getting his starting gig back. I'd expect Wes Matthews, Roy and Nicolas Batum to all play about 30 minutes a game once Roy is up to speed -- with Batum most likely to come off the bench.

Unlike other injury stashes such Chris Kaman and Mo Williams, Roy is actually a top-25 player when healthy. He almost certainly won't regain that form, but the point is that the upside here is huge. Even in a completely hobbled state earlier this season, Roy averaged 16.6 points, 3.3 assists, 3.0 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.1 treys. He should be healthier now and belongs on all teams in all formats.

Marcus Camby (knee) says he is going to practice on Tuesday, which would put him on track to return against the Raptors on Friday. If that happens, he will quickly ramp up to 30-plus minutes a night. Joel Przybilla and Dante Cunningham have proven to be liabilities on the court and will not be trusted for anything more than spot minutes.

The Blazers are rumored to be working the phones hard ahead of the trading deadline, but the fact remains that they entered Monday as the eighth seed in the West. It would be hard to see them selling off their veteran talent while in playoff contention. Don't make any preventative moves like adding Patrick Mills just yet.

SACRAMENTO
PG Beno Udrih
SG Tyreke Evans
SF Omri Casspi
PF Jason Thompson
C DeMarcus Cousins

The twin towers lineup of DeMarcus Cousins at power forward and Sam Dalembert at center was interesting, but coach Paul Westphal is not into it. He thinks Jason Thompson plays better as a starter, so there you have it. On most nights, Thompson and Sammy D will cancel each other out.

Omri Casspi has not exactly lit the world on fire since Francisco Garcia (calf) went down, but he may have done enough to retain the starting gig. Heading into Monday night, Casspi was averaging 11.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.9 treys as a starter. More importantly, the Kings had won three of their last six games prior to Monday, including a win over the Lakers and a narrow loss to the Celtics. Westphal never hesitates to "Pipp" his players, meaning Garcia is in real danger of losing his job due to injury. Casspi is a decent specialist in deep leagues and is a good bet to hold the gig for the rest of the year.

UTAH
PG Deron Williams
SG Raja Bell
SF Andrei Kirilenko
PF Paul Millsap
C Al Jefferson

After a brief "mixing it up" at the small forward spot, look for Andrei Kirilenko to hold the job for the rest of the season. Gordon Hayward is nowhere near ready to play and C.J. Miles' defense (or lack thereof) infuriates coach Jerry Sloan. Now over his ankle injury, AK47 is a good bet for 31-33 minutes nightly. Note that as a starter, Kirilenko averages 1.3 steals, 1.2 blocks and 0.6 3-pointers. He is as underrated as they come.

Most owners that picked up C.J. Miles while Kirilenko was out can go ahead and cut bait. While playing 23-25 minutes, he will be a weak 3-point/steals specialist. Miles as a reserve this season before Monday: 12.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.5 treys, 23.4 minutes.

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