LOS ANGELES LAKERSPG
Derek FisherSG
Kobe BryantSF
Ron ArtestPF
Pau GasolC
Andrew BynumThe Lakers were playing terrible basketball heading into the break, but a significant change in the rotation is unlikely.
Ron Artest won't draw any real interest on the trade market, the
Carmelo Anthony for
Andrew Bynum rumors were never valid and the Lakers insist on bringing
Lamar Odom off the bench.
So what we have is the same old story. One change down the stretch could stem from the fact that the Lakers are 9.5 games up on the Suns in the Pacific Division. Rest for
Kobe Bryant,
Andrew Bynum and
Pau Gasol is a concern. That could potentially help
Lamar Odom, but damage here has been done. In Odom's last eight games, he is averaging 11.7 points and 6.6 boards in just 29.2 minutes a night.
For the fourth straight time in this column, we are selling high.
MEMPHISPG
Mike ConleySG
Sam YoungSF
Rudy GayPF
Zach RandolphC
Marc GasolAs we all know by now,
Rudy Gay partially dislocated his shoulder in the Grizzlies' final game before the break and will be out at least four weeks. Even if Gay does get back at that four week mark, the Grizzlies will only have 12 games left in the season. If the Grizz slip out of the playoff race, Gay may not even come back at all. Whether you can hang on solely depends on your format.
Coach Lionel Hollins has not said who will start in place of Gay, but I expect it to be
Tony Allen.
O.J. Mayo was coming off the bench for a reason and the Grizz went 8-2 during his 10-game suspension. Allen has proven to be a force -- and not just on the defensive end. In eight starts this season, he is averaging 13.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 0.4 treys.
So look for about 33-36 minutes out of Allen and 27-29 for Mayo. Allen has room to improve on those previously stated numbers and is a must-own in all formats. Mayo gets a little boost as well.
Sam Young had locked himself into a starting role even before Gay went down. Over the last eight games, Young was averaging 14.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals in 36.7 minutes a night. There's not much room for more playing time, but there is room for more shot attempts. Over that stretch, Young was putting up 12.1 field goals a night. With Gay's 16.1 attempts per night now out of the lineup, look for Young to take as many as 15 shots. Consider him a must-start in most formats.
MINNESOTAPG
Luke RidnourSG
Martell WebsterSF
Corey BrewerPF
Kevin LoveC
Darko MilicicAs predicted here,
Jonny Flynn is nowhere close to stealing
Luke Ridnour's job. Flynn was just average as a rookie and his hip labrum repair has proven to be a major setback. Ridnour is a better in both real life and fantasy, locking him into 32-34 minutes nightly even when Flynn gets back from his little rest.
Meanwhile,
Martell Webster quietly appears to have passed Wes Johnson on the depth chart. He projects as a sixth man once
Michael Beasley (ankle) gets healthy, but note that
Corey Brewer is likely to be dealt. In that case, Webster would start as a fantasy asset in 3-pointers. He is averaging 2.1 3-pointers per 36 minutes in his career. Just keep an eye on Webster's back -- it has been bothering him all year.
If/when the proposed trade between the Knicks and the Nuggets goes down, the Wolves will acquire
Anthony Randolph. Randolph's tantalizing talent is intriguing, but we have to realize he has essentially been cut by two separate teams already. Expecting more than 20-25 minutes in an already-crowded rotation is a stretch, but deep leaguers can take a speculative look.
NEW ORLEANSPG
Chris PaulSG
Willie GreenSF
Trevor ArizaPF
David WestC
Jason SmithMarco Belinelli has officially been replaced by
Willie Green. It's an embarrassing turn of events for Belinelli, whose long-term outlook in the league needs to be assessed. Given every opportunity to succeed next to
Chris Paul, the Italian averaged just 10.0 points and shot 40.8 percent in 51 starts this year.
As for Green, here are his numbers in seven starts this year: 14.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.0 treys, 0.4 steals on 51.9 percent shooting. It's an empty statline and considering Green is a career 42.5 percent shooter, the points do not project to sustain. He's a weak option.
Note that
Emeka Okafor (oblique) is questionable Wednesday, 3 1/2 weeks after his 1-3 week timetable. He should be at full strength soon and ready for his usual 31-33 minutes shortly.
OKLAHOMA CITYPG
Russell WestbrookSG
Thabo SefoloshaSF
Kevin DurantPF
Jeff GreenC
Nenad KrsticThat brief crisis over
Serge Ibaka's minutes is a distant memory. He has been hovering around 26 minutes per night all season and that's exactly where he will be the rest of the way. If you can't use his February numbers of 8.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.7 blocks, you're in the wrong league. Forget that he's not starting, the roles here are as stable as it gets in the NBA.
It's rare that a championship quality team tinkers with their starting five this late in the season. The Spurs, Lakers, Celtics and Heat all are locked and loaded for the most part. But credit has to be given to Dallas and coach Rick Carlisle for being willing to change at this juncture. In the last two weeks, he has changed 40 percent of his starting lineup and sent ripples through his rotation.
Coaches are constantly tinkering, toying and yanking around with rotations. Sometimes it has to do with injuries. In other instances, it's a result of ineffective play from a certain player. The effect this has on minutes played and thus statistical production is where we come in.
Each week in this space, I'll explore the rotations of half the league's teams while attempting to get inside coaches' heads. The idea is not to tell you what
Kevin Durant and
LeBron James are going to do -- it's to decipher how much production we can get out of fringe players.
Last week, I hit the East. Let's start this week off with the Mavericks, where
Roddy Beaubois and
Peja Stojakovic find themselves starting.
* Note that lineups listed reflect the starters in the team's previous game. Stats are through Monday's games unless otherwise noted.DALLASPG
Jason KiddSG
Roddy BeauboisSF
Peja StojakovicPF
Dirk NowitzkiC
Tyson ChandlerRoddy Beaubois projects as the Mavs' starting shooting guard for the rest of the season. It's an easy decision -- Roddy B is a Ferrari and
DeShawn Stevenson is a Pinto. However, we need to keep minute projections in check despite the starting status.
The Mavs prefer to bring
Jason Terry off the bench -- but play him starter's minutes. Terry is playing 32.2 minutes per game this year and has played no less than 33 minutes per game in four of the previous five seasons. He's going to get his. J.J. Barea has also been playing at a high level of late. He is averaging 24.5 minutes per game over his last eight contests.
So what we have is about 26-29 minutes available for Beaubois. It's certainly enough for him to be worth an add in most formats thanks to his high shooting volume and 3-point/steal upside. But expecting much more than 12-14 points per game the rest of the way is a stretch for a 22-year-old kid that hasn't played since August.
Meanwhile,
Peja Stojakovic has settled into his starting small forward role and produced about how we expected. He'll hover around 20 minutes nightly and jack up 4-5 treys per game. But without any defensive, assist or rebounding numbers, Peja is a just a weak specialist. His current 9.7 points and 1.5 treys a game should be the norm until his knees give out.
Editor's Note: Draft a hoops team just for tonight and win real cash in SnapDraft!DENVERPG
Chauncey BillupsSG
Arron AfflaloSF
Carmelo AnthonyPF
Kenyon MartinC Nene
The biggest thing we can take from the entire
Carmelo Anthony mess is that the Nuggets will be turning the keys over to
Ty Lawson. Even when they get
Raymond Felton, they plan on moving him along immediately. It's a wise move as Felton is ready to play right now.
In 14 career starts, Lawson is averaging 16.4 points, 5.9 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.2 3-pointers per game. The scary part is that those numbers can get even better as he is still getting used to the NBA game. Lawson should be nowhere near any waiver wires at this point as he stares 32-34 minutes a night in the face.
Here is a projected Knicks rotation if/when the trade goes down:
Chauncey Billups,
Landry Fields,
Carmelo Anthony,
Amare Stoudemire and
Timofey Mozgov. Carmelo and Billups take small hits from playing with another superstar, but that will be canceled out by coach Mike D'Antoni's up-tempo offense.
As for projecting the Nuggets rotation A.C. (after Carmelo), it is an exercise in futility. Once the Melo bomb drops, Nene,
J.R. Smith,
Al Harrington, any Knicks they get and more are all likely to be moved. It's going to be one giant mess that we can only follow as it unfolds.
GOLDEN STATEPG
Stephen CurrySG
Monta EllisSF
Dorell WrightPF
David LeeC
Andris BiedrinsStephen Curry is not ready to guard the best point guards in the NBA and it is showing in foul trouble.
Deron Williams,
Chris Paul and
Chauncey Billups have each saddled him with fouls over the last five games, leading to three sub-30 minute nights. It's a concern, but there is no reason to panic. Curry's game is just so unbelievably roto-friendly that it is worth riding out his youth for the top-5 upside.
There was some thought that
Andris Biedrins had turned the corner. Nope. With averages of 3.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 0.8 blocks in his last eight games, it's clear he has not. The only reason he is still starting and getting 20-22 minutes nightly is that
Ekpe Udoh is not ready to play yet. Biedrins is also still starting because the Warriors have also won seven of their last nine games despite his ineffectiveness. This is a situation to avoid.
HOUSTONPG
Kyle LowrySG
Kevin MartinSF
Shane BattierPF
Luis ScolaC
Chuck HayesThe Rockets are expected to be one of the more active teams at the trading deadline, although
Aaron Brooks rumors have been slim to none. At this point, a trade to somewhere he could get playing time would be a surprise. Names more likely to be dealt include
Shane Battier,
Jared Jeffries and the expiring contract of
Yao Ming.
The goal would be to bring back some size.
Chuck Hayes is doing his best, but at 6-foot-6 he is not a realistic long-term option. Hayes has played 25 minutes or fewer in each of his last three games, losing minutes to
Jordan Hill,
Patrick Patterson and
Brad Miller. The odds of Hayes regaining those 30-plus minutes are low -- feel free to cut bait.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERSPG
Baron DavisSG
Randy FoyeSF
Ryan GomesPF
Blake GriffinC
DeAndre JordanChris Kaman was not expected back until the end of February or early March. Then, out of nowhere, he popped up for 9.5 minutes in the final game before the All-Star break. The line was impressive, even though it came against the Wolves: Four points, six rebounds, three blocks. So now the question is what will become of the Kaman/
DeAndre Jordan situation?
Jordan appeared to hit a wall over the last two weeks. In nine February games, he averaged just 6.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks while seeing his minutes sink to 28.1 a night. That's not him, he's a better player than that. But the Clippers lost seven of those nine games and Jordan is taking some of the blame.
Look for Kaman to ramp up his minutes slowly. Jordan will likely continue to start and get his 26-28 minutes while Kaman makes sure his ankle soreness doesn't linger. If Jordan doesn't snap out of his funk, Kaman would take over at that point. There is enough room for both to play around 28 minutes, making both well worth owning in fantasy. Remember that just one year ago, Kaman averaged 18.5 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.2 blocks.
Although Jordan took some of the blame for the recent losing streak, most of it is being blamed on
Eric Gordon's (wrist) absence. Since
Randy Foye took over as a starter, the Clips are 4-11. As soon as Gordon is ready, he'll get back in the starting lineup and relegate Foye to waiver wire fodder. But with Gordon likely out another week, owners may as well ride out Foye. He is averaging an obscene 36.3 minutes per game as a starter.
Editor's Note: For weekly projections, daily pickup advice, exclusive columns and much more, check out Rotoworld's Season Pass!LOS ANGELES LAKERSPG
Derek FisherSG
Kobe BryantSF
Ron ArtestPF
Pau GasolC
Andrew BynumThe Lakers were playing terrible basketball heading into the break, but a significant change in the rotation is unlikely.
Ron Artest won't draw any real interest on the trade market, the
Carmelo Anthony for
Andrew Bynum rumors were never valid and the Lakers insist on bringing
Lamar Odom off the bench.
So what we have is the same old story. One change down the stretch could stem from the fact that the Lakers are 9.5 games up on the Suns in the Pacific Division. Rest for
Kobe Bryant,
Andrew Bynum and
Pau Gasol is a concern. That could potentially help
Lamar Odom, but damage here has been done. In Odom's last eight games, he is averaging 11.7 points and 6.6 boards in just 29.2 minutes a night.
For the fourth straight time in this column, we are selling high.
MEMPHISPG
Mike ConleySG
Sam YoungSF
Rudy GayPF
Zach RandolphC
Marc GasolAs we all know by now,
Rudy Gay partially dislocated his shoulder in the Grizzlies' final game before the break and will be out at least four weeks. Even if Gay does get back at that four week mark, the Grizzlies will only have 12 games left in the season. If the Grizz slip out of the playoff race, Gay may not even come back at all. Whether you can hang on solely depends on your format.
Coach Lionel Hollins has not said who will start in place of Gay, but I expect it to be
Tony Allen.
O.J. Mayo was coming off the bench for a reason and the Grizz went 8-2 during his 10-game suspension. Allen has proven to be a force -- and not just on the defensive end. In eight starts this season, he is averaging 13.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.1 steals, 1.1 blocks and 0.4 treys.
So look for about 33-36 minutes out of Allen and 27-29 for Mayo. Allen has room to improve on those previously stated numbers and is a must-own in all formats. Mayo gets a little boost as well.
Sam Young had locked himself into a starting role even before Gay went down. Over the last eight games, Young was averaging 14.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.6 steals in 36.7 minutes a night. There's not much room for more playing time, but there is room for more shot attempts. Over that stretch, Young was putting up 12.1 field goals a night. With Gay's 16.1 attempts per night now out of the lineup, look for Young to take as many as 15 shots. Consider him a must-start in most formats.
MINNESOTAPG
Luke RidnourSG
Martell WebsterSF
Corey BrewerPF
Kevin LoveC
Darko MilicicAs predicted here,
Jonny Flynn is nowhere close to stealing
Luke Ridnour's job. Flynn was just average as a rookie and his hip labrum repair has proven to be a major setback. Ridnour is a better in both real life and fantasy, locking him into 32-34 minutes nightly even when Flynn gets back from his little rest.
Meanwhile,
Martell Webster quietly appears to have passed Wes Johnson on the depth chart. He projects as a sixth man once
Michael Beasley (ankle) gets healthy, but note that
Corey Brewer is likely to be dealt. In that case, Webster would start as a fantasy asset in 3-pointers. He is averaging 2.1 3-pointers per 36 minutes in his career. Just keep an eye on Webster's back -- it has been bothering him all year.
If/when the proposed trade between the Knicks and the Nuggets goes down, the Wolves will acquire
Anthony Randolph. Randolph's tantalizing talent is intriguing, but we have to realize he has essentially been cut by two separate teams already. Expecting more than 20-25 minutes in an already-crowded rotation is a stretch, but deep leaguers can take a speculative look.
NEW ORLEANSPG
Chris PaulSG
Willie GreenSF
Trevor ArizaPF
David WestC
Jason SmithMarco Belinelli has officially been replaced by
Willie Green. It's an embarrassing turn of events for Belinelli, whose long-term outlook in the league needs to be assessed. Given every opportunity to succeed next to
Chris Paul, the Italian averaged just 10.0 points and shot 40.8 percent in 51 starts this year.
As for Green, here are his numbers in seven starts this year: 14.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 1.0 treys, 0.4 steals on 51.9 percent shooting. It's an empty statline and considering Green is a career 42.5 percent shooter, the points do not project to sustain. He's a weak option.
Note that
Emeka Okafor (oblique) is questionable Wednesday, 3 1/2 weeks after his 1-3 week timetable. He should be at full strength soon and ready for his usual 31-33 minutes shortly.
OKLAHOMA CITYPG
Russell WestbrookSG
Thabo SefoloshaSF
Kevin DurantPF
Jeff GreenC
Nenad KrsticThat brief crisis over
Serge Ibaka's minutes is a distant memory. He has been hovering around 26 minutes per night all season and that's exactly where he will be the rest of the way. If you can't use his February numbers of 8.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.7 blocks, you're in the wrong league. Forget that he's not starting, the roles here are as stable as it gets in the NBA.
PHOENIXPG
Steve NashSG
Vince CarterSF
Grant HillPF
Channing FryeC
Robin LopezVince Carter's usage over the last week has been alarming. Before logging 31.8 minutes on Thursday, Carter was averaging just 19.1 minutes per game over his previous four. It wasn't because he was injured -- it was simply because
Mickael Pietrus and
Jared Dudley were playing better. In other words, Carter has been put on notice and he has to step up.
I'm not convinced Carter is capable of raising his game at this point in his career. Since joining the Suns at age 34, his field-goal percentage is down to 42.4 percent while his 3-point attempts are up to 4.8 per game. It's a sign that he can no longer get to the rim. Look for his minutes to continue to fall.
We can only consider
Robin Lopez's 13 point, 13 rebound performance on Thursday night a fluke. In the previous seven games,
Marcin Gortat was averaging 30.2 minutes per game. That will be the norm as Gortat is clearly the better player.
PORTLANDPG
Andre MillerSG
Wesley Matthews SF
Nicolas BatumPF
LaMarcus AldridgeC
Dante CunninghamThis situation is extremely fluid. First of all,
Brandon Roy is expected to test his knee in practice Tuesday in the hopes that the Blazers will let him play Wednesday. Once cleared, he will be eased in off the bench for somewhere around 20 minutes. Again, note that his dual scopes were designed for short-term relief -- he fully intends to contribute in a significant manner this season. His minutes will cut into Patty Mills and
Rudy Fernandez -- not as much
Wesley Matthews and
Nicolas Batum. There is enough room here for Roy to get back around 28-30 minutes and be a fantasy asset.
Marcus Camby (knee) is also tentatively expected back this week, although he does not want to be traded. That could make him sit out through Thursday's deadline. Either way, look for Camby to stay -- the Blazers are just too thin up front. Camby should quickly get back up around 28-30 minutes as well.
Andre Miller is certainly on the trading block and seems likely to get moved. Without a clear-cut destination, however, we cannot make any preemptive moves.
SACRAMENTOPG
Beno UdrihSG
Jermaine TaylorSF
Omri CasspiPF
DeMarcus Cousins
C
Samuel DalembertThe latest setback with
Tyreke Evans' plantar fasciitis has to be considered a major concern. With just 29 games left in the year and the Kings sporting a 13-40 record, there isn't much incentive for Evans to fight through the kind of pain this injury includes. Even if he does end up playing later this week, he is a poor bet to sustain health all the way to the end.
However, don't get sucked into
Jermaine Taylor's outburst from last Wednesday. The 2009 second-round pick is a borderline NBA talent that caught he Mavs off guard.
Beno Udrih is the real beneficiary if Evans shuts it down. And coach Paul Westphal is prone to sending Taylor back to the pine at the first hint of struggles.
DeMarcus Cousins' 33 point, 14 rebound in the Rookie Challenge showed the world what we already know -- this kid is special. Still only 20 years old and growing into his body, he has the upside to be a 20 and 10 player for a long, long time if he can keep his head on straight. While
Samuel Dalembert,
Carl Landry and
Jason Thompson all cancel each other out, Cousins will be the constant. His 17.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks over his last seven games are sustainable.
SAN ANTONIOPG
Tony ParkerSG
Manu GinobiliSF
Richard JeffersonPF
Tim DuncanC
DeJuan BlairCoach Gregg Popovich sent owners into a tizzy when he brought
Manu Ginobili off the bench against the Wizards on Feb. 12. It turns out it was just a one-game thing to get Manu some rest, but the intent is worth noting here. Ginobili is shooting 36.9 percent over his last nine games and appears to be wearing down after that scalding start. With more rest on the horizon, Ginobili is a sell-high candidate on name value.
Speaking of name value,
Tim Duncan is averaging just 25.8 minutes a night over his last nine games.
As I led with two weeks ago, Duncan is on cruise control.
DeJuan Blair, who played just 19.6 minutes in the last game before the break, is a nice buy-low.
UTAHPG
Deron WilliamsSG
Gordon HaywardSF
C.J. MilesPF
Paul MillsapC
Al JeffersonNew coach
Tyrone Corbin has been pretty clear about his intentions with the rotation. Like Jerry Sloan, he sees
C.J. Miles as a bench player. That means
Raja Bell (calf) will start right out of the break, sending Miles back to the bench. We don't need to dig too deep to realize how much of a hit this is to Miles' value.
C.J. Miles as a starter: 18.0 ppg, 2.0 3-pointers per game, 36.6 minutes.
C.J. Miles as a reserve: 11.9 ppg, 1.5 3-pointers per game, 23.1 minutes.
Andrei Kirilenko (ankle) will also get his starting job back when healthy. Note that in Corbin's first game, Kirilenko played the entire first quarter and ended up with eight points, five rebounds and two assists. Playing at a level reminiscent of a few years back, AK47 remains an extremely underrated fantasy asset with an up arrow.
Follow Adam Levitan on Twitter for instant news and reaction to changes in NBA depth charts throughout the week.