SBT: NBA Draft Aftermath

3. Does anybody feel a draft?

As a general note, the lack of a Summer League should not be lost upon owners. And depending on whether or not there is a preseason or if games are missed, these rookies could be learning during regular season games. The impact should be that even less rookies will have an impact than normal, or at least that's what conventional wisdom says.

Here we go, pick by pick initial analysis of the top rookie selections:

No. 1 Duke PG Kyrie Irving, Cavs – He will get 22-26 minutes to start and then eventually play 30+ mpg, which given his upside justifies a late round selection, though somebody else will probably take him too early.

No. 2 Arizona SF/PF Derrick Williams, Wolves – I'm not convinced that the triumvirate of he, Michael Beasley, and Kevin Love will be together all year just yet, but assuming they are, he's a guy that I'll be targeting near Irving. There's just not a very good chance, bust potential aside, that he isn't productive to some degree and he'll have a bunch of upside. In other words, I'm looking at him late, and he'll probably go much earlier than I'm willing to pick him at.

As for Beasley, with the same assumption that all three guys stay and play all year, he'll be a guy that you'll want to draft with the intent to sell immediately. Beasley's value should vary directly with Williams' performance and the Wolves ability to play a small lineup with Love at center. As Williams' minutes increase, Beasley's will be hit accordingly.

No. 3 Kentucky C Enes Kanter, Jazz – He kicks off a long list of developmental rookies and will only be interesting on draft day if Brian Smith of the Salt Lake Tribune says so. He'll have to be very impressive in a limited window of time to convince the Jazz to move Al Jefferson to the four under their current roster configuration.

No. 4 Texas PF Tristan Thompson, Cavs – He will greatly benefit if the Cavs decide to part ways with J.J. Hickson and/or Anderson Varejao, and while there are small blips on the trade radar, there aren't enough to project a trade just yet. Without a trade, he will be somebody to look at with a flier pick at the ends of drafts for his blocks and boards, but not much more. However, that could change if positive reports start flying out of Cleveland (duh). After all, Hickson isn't exactly exempt from landing in Byron Scott's doghouse.

No. 5 Lithuanian C Jonas Valanciunas – He'll have no impact this year because he won't play due to his overseas contract. He'll be back next year to either move Bargnani to the hybrid PF/SG position he has cultivated, or make he'll make Bargnani expendable to a team that's willing to pay part of his remaining 4-year, $40 million contract. This is also good news for Ed Davis and Amir Johnson, who will now only have to fight each other for PF minutes, since Sam Amick of SI.com believes Reggie Evans will not be back.

No. 6 Czech Republic SF Jan Vesely – The dude put a charge into the NBA Draft by getting to first base with his girlfriend after being selected, and if he shows that type of initiative in the NBA maybe he can improve on his 44 percent foul shooting. The upside is that Flip Saunders called him a "freak athlete" and most folks in the know agree, and he has just the corpse of Rashard Lewis, and a couple of raw, defensive players in Chris Singleton and Trevor Booker to compete with. He'll be somebody to watch early in the preseason, but his upside right now for fantasy is as a late-round flier pick.

And let's make something clear about Lewis because he has been dead for a few years now. Until he shows that he can be a rotation guy again in the NBA, let alone a starter, my position on him is that he is done. Whether it's his knee, old age, or that he's just no good – despite any good intentions he may have – he's only there to collect a paycheck for the next two years. A $46 million dollar paycheck.

No. 7 Congo PF Bismack Biyombo – Biyombo is a defensive beast and perhaps the most athletic player in the draft. He struggles with foul shooting, turnovers, and has a lot of room to improve offensively – but don't let national writers who saw one online video of his workout and decided he has no skills fool you – he's not completely raw. He also has good court sense, and it's safe to say his mind moves better than his body will let him. As his skills catch up, he'll show massive improvement offensively. Whether that happens this year or not is completely debatable.

For fantasy purposes, he will compete with Tyrus Thomas, Boris Diaw, and Kwame Brown for time, and I find it hard to believe he can't crack that lineup significantly. He'll be worthy of a late round pick for his blocks and boards in Roto leagues, and in other formats will want to keep an eye on him, too. I would not be surprised at all if he makes an early impact given the Bobcats' lack of depth.

No. 8 Kentucky PG Brandon Knight – Also an intriguing player given how he fell in the draft, yet nobody had anything truly bad to say about him. He was set to go third to Utah before they settled on big man Enes Kanter, and the perfect storm sent him falling to Detroit, who had him third overall on their board. The Pistons have a ton of guards, but the point guards they have in Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum have their flaws, and neither will be trusted to run the team long-term. Besides, the Pistons are very high on Knight, with Joe Dumars saying that they were going to use the combo guard at PG and "give him the ball."

My guess is that they split the ball-handling duties between Knight and Stuckey, which could include Stuckey playing primarily at shooting guard in either a starting or bench role, so Knight starting at PG wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. The question about Knight's upside will be answered when we learn if Detroit will match whatever offer comes down the pipeline for Stuckey, who is a restricted free agent. If Knight and Stuckey share PG duties, the assist totals will necessarily take a hit, though both will have low-end guard value, regardless.

So similar to Jimmer, if I'm drafting ridiculously early, I'm looking in Rounds 9-11 – lower only because I'm halfway expecting the Kings to look like GSW teams of yore, and that Knight is a much less polished player than Jimmer. At 19 years old, I expect him to struggle much more, especially early, but being in a unique position to share ball-handling duties I think his deficiencies can be hidden while on the job.

No. 9 Connecticut PG Kemba Walker – Charlotte's name was attached to Walker seemingly the entire draft season, and for fantasy purposes it's another turning back of the clock for the Charlotte backcourt, but instead of an underconfident D.J. Augustin battling Raymond Felton – Augustin will be the veteran now. There's no real telling who will come ahead until we see the two do battle, and it would be surprising for the rookie Walker to get the job without earning it. This has timeshare written all over it indefinitely.

I can't sleep

No really, working as an NBA analyst you're contractually obligated to not sleep, for fear of missing the next piece of breaking news on Twitter. But seriously, though, you won't find any complaints here about the dream job.

And while anybody in the draft could technically be a sleeper, how about two more rookies that have clearer paths than most to fantasy value:

No. 16 USC PF/C Nikola Vucevic – He is a slower, but bigger version of Spencer Hawes, and since Hawes has never really been able to put things together – Vucevic will have every opportunity to steal the job outright. He'll need a fast start, however, to deserve draft consideration.

No. 22 Morehead State PF Kenneth Faried – Fans are going to love this guy, and unless Timofey Mozgov learns how to not foul on every play, it's likely that the Nuggets trot out a lineup with Faried at PF and Nene at C, assuming they don't resign Kenyon Martin for near the veteran minimum. For what it's worth, Martin can probably get an extra million changing addresses, so we'll see how he feels.

Faried has good hands on the catch and finishes well around the rim, but don't expect him to do much else. A hustle guy if there ever was one, he rebounds very well and will block a few shots. Eight points, eight boards, a steal, and a block per game seem like a decent starting point should he start and play 30 minutes.

The 2011 NBA Draft was widely referred to as a weak draft, but like the trade deadline earlier in the year, it was a flurry of stories, reports, and ultimately draft day action. And given the vast number of unknown quantities waiting for their names to be called, sorting through the wreckage looked like a monumental task -- particularly when the Kings kicked off their pursuit of Jimmer Fredette with a curious trade swapping their No. 7 pick for the No. 10 pick to acquire John Salmons. The overwhelming theme among GMs, media types, and fans was, 'we don't know what to expect.'

Maybe that's why the draft had the best ratings it had seen in 15 years. That, or it was the fact that it might be the last official basketball activity we see for a while, but that's another story for another time and place.

When it was all said and done, and after Doctor A, Ryan Knaus, and I each lost five pounds typing at our computers – the end result delivered some pretty good storylines. So without further ado, the first Step-back 3 of the offseason is here.

For real-time updates and interactive fantasy information, follow me on Twitter.

The Step-back 3 is a place where Aaron Bruski takes a look at three issues in the world of basketball, walking the blurry line of fantasy basketball and the reality that drives it. Focusing less on daily events, the idea is to take a step back from the daily grind and try to make sense of things.

1. Let me teach you how to Jimmer

The day started off with the aforementioned Kings trade, which sat somewhere between knee-jerk reaction and playing it safe in their hunt for a small forward, as the Kings sent Beno Udrih to the Bucks in exchange for John Salmons and the No. 10 pick. As a part of the deal, the Bucks sent Corey Maggette's bad contract to Charlotte and picked up Stephen 'the pressure fornicator' Jackson and Shaun 'crazy knees' Livingston. Rounding out the deal, the Kings gave their No. 7 pick to the Bobcats.

The impetus for Sacramento moving on this deal was their infatuation with Jimmer Fredette, who may have been the most intriguing player in the draft given his climb up the boards over the past month, and for the arena-needy Kings his ability to generate buzz and sell tickets. Like Stephen Curry with a few more pieces of flair, nobody questions his shooting, his ability to put a move on someone, or his willingness to put a team on his shoulders in crunch time. But his defense, and to a lesser degree, his ability to score with the same impact against NBA defenders – are both fair question marks.

So the debate raged in the media and in war rooms, and while Jimmer had plenty of detractors, he had enough suitors in Utah, New York, Phoenix, and Sacramento to make him a lottery pick. And with their prize in hand, the Kings will now have four guys that are more shooting guard than point guard or small forward. Each will deserve minutes, and each of them holds the ball better than some NFL running backs.

This, of course, speaks to the fact that this was not just a basketball decision as some reporters with ties to the Kings have advertised on their behalf. Considering their gaping hole at SF, the correct basketball decision would have been to grab SF Kahwi Leonard out of San Diego State, who is also known as the guy the Spurs traded up-and-comer George Hill for. And while the Spurs aren't infallible, the four-time NBA champions should be taken seriously on a talent evaluation like this – though I find it ironic that due to their rapidly closing title window that they might be chasing one mistake (Richard Jefferson) by giving up too much (Hill) for his replacement.

Meanwhile, the Kings reacquired Salmons 2.0, the 4-year older version of the player they traded away years ago in a salary dump, and a guy who amplifies the shoot-now-or-forever-hold-your-breath mantra of nearly every heavy-minute player the Kings have. Team president Geoff Petrie said that the move was cap neutral, but what he doesn't mention is that the third year on Salmons' deal comes at an additional overall cost of about $9 million and an extra year. And while one can point to Udrih's better two-year deal and say the Kings have lost flexibility, that is nothing compared to the equivalent cost of Leonard's' theoretic contract at the Kings' old No. 7 slot – which would have been $3-5 million per year over the next four years, if you estimate using Greg Monroe's contract at No. 7 last season.

As for Beno, his contract isn't ideal, but it's not breaking the bank and it's hard to say definitively that they couldn't have done better in another deal. And maybe the Kings thought that teams would low-ball them once they saw the proliferation of guards on their roster, but it's way too early on the NBA trading calendar to say that with any certainty.

So the Kings basically moved down in the draft, added salary, decreased flexibility, and gambled that they couldn't have done better than John Salmons later down the road, all while missing out on the player the Spurs covet. Whether you're taking Jimmer or Kawhi, the transaction to get Salmons is being done to the sweet, soothing sounds of Benny Hill.

As for making a basketball decision with business at the forefront of the discussion, I support it fully, because in my work researching the Kings' arena situation, it is clear to me that this needed to happen. Why? Because those fans deserve to keep their team. They care, they fought when there was 0.01% chance of keeping their team, and that's really all you can ask for out of them. And if Jimmer helps sell tickets that can help the Maloofs, Kevin Johnson, and a group of forward-thinking politicians get that done – then it was the correct draft pick.

After all, it won't matter to Kings fans who they draft if they're playing in Anaheim. And say Leonard blows up and Jimmer faceplants, will it really matter to the revenue effort? Nope. Jimmer will sell more tickets as a bust than Leonard will as an All Star. Don't like it? Me neither, but it's the truth.

The good news for Kings fans and fantasy basketball owners is that the decision has just as good of a chance to succeed as it will have to fail, and assuming his new teammates don't freeze him out after Jimmer-mania takes hold of Sacramento (or takes hold of their shot attempts), this could end up being the new Golden State offense.

They're not going to win a title as currently constructed or even make the playoffs, but it will be a start. And along the way I'm excited to see what it looks like. They can run a lineup in which every guy can put the ball down on the floor and make something happen. Make no mistake, defense and field goal percentage will be a problem, but the idea of these guys breakdance fighting up and down the court -- whether it's against the other team or not -- will cause me to tune in.


Winners:

Jimmer Fredette: He lands in a place where he will be encouraged to perform for both basketball and business reasons, and with Beno Udrih heading out of town he has a decent chance of running the point. Tyreke Evans could run the point and is the leader in the clubhouse until it's stated otherwise – but the Kings have given subtle hints about wanting to get Tyreke off the ball throughout all of last year.

The reason is obvious – Evans lacks the will or vision to distribute the ball. Besides, he can be nearly as effective off the ball, where he, Marcus Thornton, and John Salmons can take turns attacking in better rhythm.

So while we'll need to watch how the Kings choose to deploy Jimmer, if I have to draft today, I could see burning a pick on him around Round 8-10 for his ability to hit threes, score, and dish the ball like a poor man's Manu Ginobili. Yes, there's a chance that he won't live up to the hype, but we'll know if his minutes will be limited early in the process. If there are no red flags, his floor will be 28 mpg in a sixth man's role by New Year's Eve and his ceiling will be the starting job with a full load running the point in a high octane offense. If your fantasy team can't sustain what I expect to be a below-average FG% or his non-existent blocks, then knocking a round off of this much-too-early prediction makes sense.

Corey Maggette: I don't know if his body can hold up, or if he will care playing for a rebuilding team following a year of indifference in Milwaukee, but Charlotte had a major scoring problem even when Jackson was healthy – so needless to say Maggette's gunning ways will have found a home. This isn't the time of year to get excited, obviously, but my guess is that Maggette will be slightly undervalued after his disaster last season. Gerald Henderson also wins here with Jackson's departure, but his hip is a big question mark for a guy that showed just enough value last season to be considered on draft day. On the other hand, with some of the progress Henderson made last year I won't be sleeping on him, either.

Carlos Delfino: After missing much of the year with a concussion that the Milwaukee press corps didn't feel was newsworthy, he eventually returned to a handful of big 3-point shooting nights, but was mostly disappointing otherwise. While the first rule of Skiles Club is that you tell three people about Skiles Club (and then they tell three people and you're rich), the second rule is don't trust Scott Skiles even if he plays a tight rotation for three weeks straight. Just ask the people that got burned in the fantasy playoffs using Delfino.

That said, we have to be ready for all scenarios, and Delfino's outlook gets markedly better without Salmons around. As of now, I expect Delfino to start and play 30+ minutes per game, which puts him squarely on the radar as a good source of points and threes, with a few rebounds, steals, and assists here and there. The only downside would come if Skiles decides to play Jackson 37-40 mpg with Delfino, Ersan Ilyasova, and a rotation guy or two splitting the remaining minutes at SG/SF evenly. Again, with Skiles you never know.


Losers:

Brandon Jennings: This is fairly straight forward, as Beno Udrih has arrived to spoil his party after a month's worth of trade rumors about Jennings. That said, Jennings isn't a guy that you want to summarily dismiss, particularly in leagues in which is FG% doesn't kill you, simply because he has elite level quickness and playmaking – and is still young enough to improve his game.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear that he and Scott Skiles, who is notably tough on his players, are on the rocks – because bringing in a guy who is an NBA starter in Udrih to backup Jennings is a poor use of $8 million per year.

Udrih is also a loser here, obviously, at least until a trade for Jennings hits the wires.

Stephen Jackson: Stack-Jack had it nice in Charlotte. He shot the ball when he wanted to while playing with a lot of guys that thought the ball had herpes. He lands in Milwaukee with Scotty Skiles, the master of the no-flow offense and random rotations. While I believe Skiles isn't going to look a gift horse in the mouth here, and that Jackson will be mostly fine, I do wonder what will happen when the players around Jackson succumb to the pitfalls of inconsistent utilization and, unlike the Bobcats, actually look for their shot.

And while Charlotte wasn't a beacon of offensive philosophy, Skiles has that touch of red-button nuclear disaster quality to him, and the best thing I can say at this time is that the only direction I think Jax can go is down, even if he has lost 20 pounds and Andrew Bogut tells us he loves his new team.

2. If you've got nothing to trade, you have no business here

Richard Jefferson – No, you take him

The Spurs reportedly told teams that they had to take Jefferson's absurd contract if they wanted Tony Parker, and that's a grenade teams didn't (and shouldn't) want to fall on. The end result was the aforementioned trade of George Hill to the Pacers for Kahwi Leonard, which produced mostly good fantasy results.

Hill, buried behind Parker and playing under Gregg Popovich's imposing thumb, is going to play significant minutes for the Pacers – we're just not sure where yet. The early returns show Darren Collison's role safe (though we're watching closely), and it makes sense that with Hill being a combo guard that he be the one to come off the bench, allowing him flexibility to run the point when DC is out and then step into the SG role when DC is in.

A late report Friday from beat writer Conrad Brunner concluded the obvious, which was that Collison, Hill, and Paul George's minutes were safe, and that Lance Stephenson's arrow was pointing up. Setting aside Stephenson, who needs to prove himself before he's a threat to play more than 15 mpg, the trio of youngsters' success will be rooted in whether or not Danny Granger plays PF. If he plays SF, things could get crowded real quick.

If he plays PF, and if the Pacers follow through on Brunner's observation that Mike Dunleavy, Dahntay Jones, Brandon Rush, and A.J. Price will be the guys whose minutes take a hit – Collison, Hill, and to a lesser degree George – could all be looking at significant minutes.

As for Leonard, he's not going to be a fantasy stud anytime soon, but he will have every opportunity to step in and start after the Spurs gave up such a valued asset in Hill for him. On the other hand, Jefferson can't run, jump, score, rebound, defend, or make on-court decisions – though if you give him an hour he can bury a three. It's unlikely, but I would not be surprised if Jefferson fell out of the rotation completely if Leonard simply proves he won't be a liability on the court.

In a deeper league, Leonard should be watched and in a standard league he has a deep, deep sleeper quality to him.

Swapping Paint

The Blazers and Nuggets swapped point guards during the draft, adding yet another chapter to Ty Lawson's book, No Really, Can You Leave My Ass Alone. Andre Miller lands in Denver as the clear backup to Lawson, but at $7.8 million in a team option for this upcoming year, he's one expensive backup. And he's still a good player, so I see no reason not to play him 20-25 mpg at least, which once again caps Lawson's tremendous upside.

And if you're wondering about whether the two can play next to each other, you better pray that players from the Arron Afflalo, J.R. Smith, Wilson Chandler, and Danilo Gallinari group get dealt (namely Smith and Chandler). It's just too many guys.

On the other hand, I'm still not sold on the Nuggets paying that much money to a backup, even if it's one they love – so Lawson's Dynasty league owners have a shred of hope.

In Portland, Felton has been on their radar for two years, as the Blazers were his second choice before picking New York last season. He steps into the starting PG position with no real competition, but the question looms whether or not Nate McMillan will run him closer to the 38 mpg he saw in New York or the 32 mpg he averaged in Denver and his final year in Charlotte.

Granted, in the latter locations he lost minutes to both Lawson and D.J. Augustin, and when you factor in that and the up-tempo Knicks offense – the disparity in numbers is easy to understand. He averaged about 12 points and six assists with Charlotte and Denver, compared to the 17 points and nine assists he averaged in New York.

Given his improvement and increased confidence, I'm comfortable bridging the gap with those numbers with an early ballpark prediction of 15 points and seven assists, making him a nice low-end PG.

No Soup For You

Oh, the tradeniks are out in full force. Monta Ellis, Andre Iguodala, Josh Smith, and Lamar Odom have all seen their names sloshed around the gossipy agent suckling, management cupping sources that report leaks (a.k.a. advertisements) – so you really have to watch who you listen to when it comes to this stuff (or forever waste your time). And yet all of these guys that were quote, unquote on the trade block saw draft day pass without them moving. Could they be traded? Yes, but until then be careful what you believe.

As for values, Monta's will almost certainly take a hit unless he moves to a free-wheeling team similar to the Warriors, but don't go buying into rumors that he's an inefficient offensive player. Only 16 guards made shots at a higher rate than him (45.1% FG) last season, and he posted good peripheral numbers despite being asked to carry the load every night. Yes, turnovers and more importantly defense were an issue, but it's a tiny bit unfair because the Warriors have been run by three monkeys and a cockatoo for his entire career (zing!).

For fantasy purposes the defense issue won't be kind regardless, as there is a strong chance he'll be asked to stop gambling wherever he plays, which will cut into his third-best steals total from last year. How far he'll fall is anybody's guess, and my guess is he'll be one of the more intriguing players to track come fantasy draft season.

Andre Iguodala was a disappointment to start off last season, but once he finally got past his Achilles' issue he was given the reins as a point forward, much the chagrin of Jrue Holiday's owners. He finished the year strong before resting his ailments down the stretch, but now depending on the day of the week he either wants out or isn't being traded.

Iggy, according to our own Adam Levitan, did miss his exit meeting, which fits in line with all the stories that he wants out, and it's just a matter of Philly finding a deal they like while dangling Iguodala's bad contract. And about that contract….

At the end of his three-year deal he will be 30 years old, making $16 million in that last year, and if guys are already playing him to shoot his below-average jumper – what's going to happen when he's three years slower? I won't question his defense, but that too will suffer in his third year to bring him from elite territory to, at-best, above average.

Now this assumes he stays healthy, which is a big 'if' now that knee and Achilles issues have hit the same leg, which is usually a sign that the issues are interrelated, and at this age any knee injury is going to sap explosiveness if it is at all serious. Iggy has not yet been cleared to return to normal workouts, so the assumption here is that they're resting it as much as possible. At this point, I'm skeptical that he'll retain any more than 90% of his current abilities throughout the three years of the deal, with the downside being much, much worse.

And while NBA teams aren't exempt from being stupid, most of them know and understand this. So in all reality the only place he is going right now is to a team with a three-year window to win a chip. Otherwise, it's virtually pointless to pay him that much money.

If you're sitting on Iggy in a Dynasty league, my recommendation is to sell before he lands with a top-tier team. And it's entirely possible the Sixers may not like what they get offered, so he could very well end up back in Philly – though the sides remain very focused on getting a deal done. Either way, owners are sitting on a declining asset and may want to use the airquoted chance he plays in Golden State as trade bait.

As for Lamar and Smoove, let's wait for a semi-credible rumor to heat up again before we speculate too much. After Mitch Kupchak ripped Magic Johnson, and agents for planting their clients' wishes throughout the media, I have an odd feeling we won't be hearing nearly as many Odom rumors. Besides, he will be a difficult guy to trade and get proper value for given his age, role-shrunk numbers, and of course, Khloe (only half-way kidding).

As for Smoove, I do think there's a good chance he will be traded. Barring extreme circumstances, I think he'll hold his value wherever he lands. On the same note, Al Horford looks poised for another monster season, regardless of what happens with Smoove.


3. Does anybody feel a draft?

As a general note, the lack of a Summer League should not be lost upon owners. And depending on whether or not there is a preseason or if games are missed, these rookies could be learning during regular season games. The impact should be that even less rookies will have an impact than normal, or at least that's what conventional wisdom says.

Here we go, pick by pick initial analysis of the top rookie selections:

No. 1 Duke PG Kyrie Irving, Cavs – He will get 22-26 minutes to start and then eventually play 30+ mpg, which given his upside justifies a late round selection, though somebody else will probably take him too early.

No. 2 Arizona SF/PF Derrick Williams, Wolves – I'm not convinced that the triumvirate of he, Michael Beasley, and Kevin Love will be together all year just yet, but assuming they are, he's a guy that I'll be targeting near Irving. There's just not a very good chance, bust potential aside, that he isn't productive to some degree and he'll have a bunch of upside. In other words, I'm looking at him late, and he'll probably go much earlier than I'm willing to pick him at.

As for Beasley, with the same assumption that all three guys stay and play all year, he'll be a guy that you'll want to draft with the intent to sell immediately. Beasley's value should vary directly with Williams' performance and the Wolves ability to play a small lineup with Love at center. As Williams' minutes increase, Beasley's will be hit accordingly.

No. 3 Kentucky C Enes Kanter, Jazz – He kicks off a long list of developmental rookies and will only be interesting on draft day if Brian Smith of the Salt Lake Tribune says so. He'll have to be very impressive in a limited window of time to convince the Jazz to move Al Jefferson to the four under their current roster configuration.

No. 4 Texas PF Tristan Thompson, Cavs – He will greatly benefit if the Cavs decide to part ways with J.J. Hickson and/or Anderson Varejao, and while there are small blips on the trade radar, there aren't enough to project a trade just yet. Without a trade, he will be somebody to look at with a flier pick at the ends of drafts for his blocks and boards, but not much more. However, that could change if positive reports start flying out of Cleveland (duh). After all, Hickson isn't exactly exempt from landing in Byron Scott's doghouse.

No. 5 Lithuanian C Jonas Valanciunas – He'll have no impact this year because he won't play due to his overseas contract. He'll be back next year to either move Bargnani to the hybrid PF/SG position he has cultivated, or make he'll make Bargnani expendable to a team that's willing to pay part of his remaining 4-year, $40 million contract. This is also good news for Ed Davis and Amir Johnson, who will now only have to fight each other for PF minutes, since Sam Amick of SI.com believes Reggie Evans will not be back.

No. 6 Czech Republic SF Jan Vesely – The dude put a charge into the NBA Draft by getting to first base with his girlfriend after being selected, and if he shows that type of initiative in the NBA maybe he can improve on his 44 percent foul shooting. The upside is that Flip Saunders called him a "freak athlete" and most folks in the know agree, and he has just the corpse of Rashard Lewis, and a couple of raw, defensive players in Chris Singleton and Trevor Booker to compete with. He'll be somebody to watch early in the preseason, but his upside right now for fantasy is as a late-round flier pick.

And let's make something clear about Lewis because he has been dead for a few years now. Until he shows that he can be a rotation guy again in the NBA, let alone a starter, my position on him is that he is done. Whether it's his knee, old age, or that he's just no good – despite any good intentions he may have – he's only there to collect a paycheck for the next two years. A $46 million dollar paycheck.

No. 7 Congo PF Bismack Biyombo – Biyombo is a defensive beast and perhaps the most athletic player in the draft. He struggles with foul shooting, turnovers, and has a lot of room to improve offensively – but don't let national writers who saw one online video of his workout and decided he has no skills fool you – he's not completely raw. He also has good court sense, and it's safe to say his mind moves better than his body will let him. As his skills catch up, he'll show massive improvement offensively. Whether that happens this year or not is completely debatable.

For fantasy purposes, he will compete with Tyrus Thomas, Boris Diaw, and Kwame Brown for time, and I find it hard to believe he can't crack that lineup significantly. He'll be worthy of a late round pick for his blocks and boards in Roto leagues, and in other formats will want to keep an eye on him, too. I would not be surprised at all if he makes an early impact given the Bobcats' lack of depth.

No. 8 Kentucky PG Brandon Knight – Also an intriguing player given how he fell in the draft, yet nobody had anything truly bad to say about him. He was set to go third to Utah before they settled on big man Enes Kanter, and the perfect storm sent him falling to Detroit, who had him third overall on their board. The Pistons have a ton of guards, but the point guards they have in Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum have their flaws, and neither will be trusted to run the team long-term. Besides, the Pistons are very high on Knight, with Joe Dumars saying that they were going to use the combo guard at PG and "give him the ball."

My guess is that they split the ball-handling duties between Knight and Stuckey, which could include Stuckey playing primarily at shooting guard in either a starting or bench role, so Knight starting at PG wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. The question about Knight's upside will be answered when we learn if Detroit will match whatever offer comes down the pipeline for Stuckey, who is a restricted free agent. If Knight and Stuckey share PG duties, the assist totals will necessarily take a hit, though both will have low-end guard value, regardless.

So similar to Jimmer, if I'm drafting ridiculously early, I'm looking in Rounds 9-11 – lower only because I'm halfway expecting the Kings to look like GSW teams of yore, and that Knight is a much less polished player than Jimmer. At 19 years old, I expect him to struggle much more, especially early, but being in a unique position to share ball-handling duties I think his deficiencies can be hidden while on the job.

No. 9 Connecticut PG Kemba Walker – Charlotte's name was attached to Walker seemingly the entire draft season, and for fantasy purposes it's another turning back of the clock for the Charlotte backcourt, but instead of an underconfident D.J. Augustin battling Raymond Felton – Augustin will be the veteran now. There's no real telling who will come ahead until we see the two do battle, and it would be surprising for the rookie Walker to get the job without earning it. This has timeshare written all over it indefinitely.

I can't sleep

No really, working as an NBA analyst you're contractually obligated to not sleep, for fear of missing the next piece of breaking news on Twitter. But seriously, though, you won't find any complaints here about the dream job.

And while anybody in the draft could technically be a sleeper, how about two more rookies that have clearer paths than most to fantasy value:

No. 16 USC PF/C Nikola Vucevic – He is a slower, but bigger version of Spencer Hawes, and since Hawes has never really been able to put things together – Vucevic will have every opportunity to steal the job outright. He'll need a fast start, however, to deserve draft consideration.

No. 22 Morehead State PF Kenneth Faried – Fans are going to love this guy, and unless Timofey Mozgov learns how to not foul on every play, it's likely that the Nuggets trot out a lineup with Faried at PF and Nene at C, assuming they don't resign Kenyon Martin for near the veteran minimum. For what it's worth, Martin can probably get an extra million changing addresses, so we'll see how he feels.

Faried has good hands on the catch and finishes well around the rim, but don't expect him to do much else. A hustle guy if there ever was one, he rebounds very well and will block a few shots. Eight points, eight boards, a steal, and a block per game seem like a decent starting point should he start and play 30 minutes.